ZZ Thorn

uh, a batting average is a "huge generalization?" if you have a large enough sample, batting average, as well as on base percentage, are very good tools to determine how often that player is going to get a hit/get on base. given the choice of a .275 hitter and a .270 hitter, assuming the .275 hitter's obp is also higher, i would almost always have the .275 hitter bat. that player has proven that he will get hits/get on base more often than the other, and isn't the point of the game to get on base and get hits? according to you, playing a superior player is the wrong decision. playing neifi was the wrong decision today. You think this because statistics are your omnipotent God. BA is a huge generalization when prediciting success in a given situation. How can you say it's not? It's not guarantee that if you flip a coin 4 times it will land on heads twice and tails twice. Theoretically, GENERALLY, it will land heads half and tails half, but in REAL LIFE it doesn't always turn out that way. Anyway, you don't when a .270 hitter is going to get his 27 hits. It could be 27 against Randy Johnson, or it could be 27 hits against a soft tossing lefty, it could be 27 in garbage time, or it could be 27 GWRBIs. Just because there's someone on the bench hitting .275 doesn't mean he's automatically the best choice in a REAL LIFE SITUATION. It's not all stats for predicting outcomes. I'm sorry to burst your bubble - but it's not that easy. If it was, you and everyone else would go to Vegas and become a bilionaire.

He was 1 for 3 with a sacrifice. It's hard to rail on him for making an out when he was ordered to sacrifice. I too would expect Hairston to outdo a 333 OBP throughout the year, but Eaton was on today, I'm ecstatic that Neifi managed a hit. There's no excuse for Macias over Dubois. I don't considered the sacrifice out as a way to escape the 1 for 4. He was asked to sacrifice, b/c he is and has been a terrible hitter, hitting 2nd. I'm ecstatic Perez got a hit, more surprised than ecstatic, doesn't mean he should've been out there over a superior hitter like Hairston or even an unknown product like Fontenot. The sacrifice was an important play. It got a runner over to second. That was a key play that could have led to us tying it up. Sacrifices are important parts of winning baseball - sorry everyone can't hit a 3 run home run in every at bat. This isn't video game baseball. I don't see that it's that big a deal to applaud Neifi for making a good play. But whatever....

He was 1 for 3 with a sacrifice. It's hard to rail on him for making an out when he was ordered to sacrifice. I too would expect Hairston to outdo a 333 OBP throughout the year, but Eaton was on today, I'm ecstatic that Neifi managed a hit. There's no excuse for Macias over Dubois. I don't considered the sacrifice out as a way to escape the 1 for 4. He was asked to sacrifice, b/c he is and has been a terrible hitter, hitting 2nd. I'm ecstatic Perez got a hit, more surprised than ecstatic, doesn't mean he should've been out there over a superior hitter like Hairston or even an unknown product like Fontenot. The sacrifice was an important play. It got a runner over to second. That was a key play that could have led to us tying it up. Sacrifices are important parts of winning baseball - sorry everyone can't hit a 3 run home run in every at bat. This isn't video game baseball. I don't see that it's that big a deal to applaud Neifi for making a good play. But whatever....

Well, then I'm glad you're not their bosses. Is there any doubt to this - Macias was guaranteed a spot from Day 1 in ST, Dubois was the last guy to make the squad. They definitely view Macias with more favor, as of this moment and for the immediate future, than Dubois. Dusty and Hendry are going with the proven commodity - proven in the sense that Macias has big league experience. I like Dubois more, but I'm jsut trying to say that's their thinking, from what I can gather. I don't think they should be fired.

He was 1 for 3 with a sacrifice. It's hard to rail on him for making an out when he was ordered to sacrifice. I too would expect Hairston to outdo a 333 OBP throughout the year, but Eaton was on today, I'm ecstatic that Neifi managed a hit. There's no excuse for Macias over Dubois. But why extrapolate one game into 162? There's so many more variables to consider in 1 real game as opposed to 161 imaginary ones, and Dusty pulled the right string with Perez over Hairston. Despite the nearly 2 pages of anti-Perez posts Perez was one of our more successful hitters today. That's just the facts...Those who hated on Perez for this game got shown up. Oh yeah, I forgot cuz Dusty didn't do it, I bet Hairston would have gone 4 for 4 with 4 grand slams. Jesus Christ. Playing Neifi was the wrong thing to do, regardless of whether or not he got one measly hit. Yippee. It seems that with this logic if Neifi had gone 4 for 4 with 4 grand slams you would still make the same statement. That, my friend, makes you a Buster on this occasion. Try being logical for a change rather than emotional. You stat freaks just don't seem to get it...there are variables to take into account that you have no idea of. You think in every situation you go with a .275 hitter over the .270 hitter - nobody who coaches in baseball agrees with that. What's funny is that you take a huge generalization, a .275 average, and you apply to every single individual case and assume that you know with 100% authority when you will be right and when you will be wrong, which of course you do not. Yet in real life, when dealing with people and ideas, I bet you try to avoid making generalizations to allow for these individual cases which you so arrogantly ignore in baseball. I would suggest learning how to apply the scientific method, logic, and the process of generalizations in all phases of your life. It will improve it. Sorry, but, take those 2 pages of this thread out, playing Perez was the right move today. Na-nanny-boo boo stick your head in poo-poo.

He was 1 for 3 with a sacrifice. It's hard to rail on him for making an out when he was ordered to sacrifice. I too would expect Hairston to outdo a 333 OBP throughout the year, but Eaton was on today, I'm ecstatic that Neifi managed a hit. There's no excuse for Macias over Dubois. But why extrapolate one game into 162? There's so many more variables to consider in 1 real game as opposed to 161 imaginary ones, and Dusty pulled the right string with Perez over Hairston. Despite the nearly 2 pages of anti-Perez posts Perez was one of our more successful hitters today. That's just the facts...Those who hated on Perez for this game got shown up. Oh yeah, I forgot cuz Dusty didn't do it, I bet Hairston would have gone 4 for 4 with 4 grand slams.

I can't explain it, but I can try to understand it. Dusty doesn't think the rook is able to handle the pressure situations yet. Since, despite what some posters think, Dubois mere presence in the batter's box doesn't guarantee a hit Dusty, must've thought Macias the lefty had a better chance. Knowing Dusty doesn't like rooks and trusts veterans more, I'm not that surprised. I think Dusty views Dubois as the 25th man, as does Hendry, and not Macias. I hope as the season progresses Dubois has success and can move up the ladder. As terrible as Perez was today, he was WAY more effective than Holla, Burnitz, ARam and Barrett combined. He did his job. Looks to me like Dusty pulled the right string there.

Perez went 1-3 today and moved the runner over into scoring position in a key late inning situation - pretty solid offensively today, especially considering the whole team only got 6 hits against a great pitching performance by the Pads. Kinda proved y'all wrong.... You guys remember that Dusty is known for using all 25 of his players right? Contributes to keeping the clubhouse happy and his players fresh for his usual August and September successes (yes, '04 was not a success)? If you keep that mind you might not get an ulcer before June. But I blame Dusty for not whacking Eaton on the knee with a pipe wrench before the game. He doesn't really want the Cubs to win. I also blame him for starting Holla, Burnitz, Aram and Barrett - who went 0 for 16 today. He should have known better.

OBP is a new stat? It's been around as long as I can recall. I always thought OBP was a crucial stat. I always thought getting walks, not King a lot, scoring runs and RBIs was crucial. I even think winning games has its place. I'm not against moneyball players, I just don't think some of them are as good as others do, like say Dunn thus for or Bellhorn. Dunn has to hit a TON of homers to be a good player - last year was the first year he finished with a SLG above .475 even, so can't you see why I'm not sold yet! If he meets Vance's requirements, but only hits .215, I don't think he's that good a player, much less a good hitter. I think Dunn has to hit at least .250 to live with his Ks and home runs. And .250 in today's game is like .225 or so just 20 years ago.... I think an 'out is an out' only in the final analysis, in a vacuum. I'm not going to swear allegiance to the OBP cuz walks are not always as good as hits. Please do not write me an essay why you disagree. And whiffs are very often exactly what you don't want during the actual game and Dunn set the record for them last year. LOL, that's a good hitter? We are talking about baseball right? Today's game was won by a fielder's choice. An out is an out huh? Yeah, that's what I thought. Please don't write that ever again cuz today just showed y'all wrong. There are many instances of stuff like this over the year, and very often a typical moneyball player either whiff or walk -neither of which get the run home. A good 'hitter' comes thru in this situation.

Can we make this a sticky?

:lmao: :roll: :roll: There's no laughing in the sacred Dusty Bad Mangerial Moves Thread.

Yeah, sometimes people just don't want to hear something and they just block it out.

0 for 2 my friend! A hot sub becomes a grinder. Thru the process of heaterization, the submarine sandwich changes in form and evolves into a grinder. I was just in Michigan: I stopped at the very fine, tho not Penn Station quality of course, Mancino's Subs and Grinders, I ordered a ham and cheese grinder and of course it was presented to me heated. Thanks to the Earl of Sandwich Conference of 1972 Michigan rule has been deemed superior to W. Ohio's fallacious interepretation. Yer boy Dunn needs to hit at least .250 to get my ok. I know my approval is weighing on him very heavily - I'm sorry to put so much pressure on him but it's the way it has to be.

I blame Dusty for this victory.

I honestly blame Jesus, Zeus and Shiva more than Dusty for this loss... Dusty didn't give up the runs, or bobble the ball, or hit 2 million pop ups.

I hear ya. Plenty of reasons to think he'll improve. To be fair tho, his season last year does represent everything that's wrong with baseball. Maybe I'm just skeptical cuz he plays for a divison rival and I want him to suck. But how can you not be concerned about his BA or his Ks - both of those are god awful! Can we condone such terrible bat-handling? Ted Williams is rolling over in his cryogenic jar! But I digress, we've done this before. Not trying to hijack your Dunn man-love thread. Maybe one day you two can go on a double date to Penn Station: Dunn as your wingman, awesome grinders and fries - wouldn't that be a little slice of paradise....

Who is this not true for? I meant if he dropped 30 points from his career high, last year's .266. He's had 3 seasons with 381 or more ABs, his average for these last 3 years is .243. If he has a slightly below career average year in BA he's dropped 30 points from last year, so it's not a stretch to think his BA could drop that much pretty easy. I'm sure it's hard to believe that .266 was .23 above his career high, but it is. LOL, those are Macias like batting averages! My point is, he's a terrible hitter. He's a good home run slugger, but he's such a bad hitter it may render him a lousy ballplayer. He cannot revert to his sub .250 BA this year and be considered a 'good' ballplayer.

dude, someone needs to slap you silly. Would you guys be so bananas about him if he hit .210/.375, 200Ks and only had 30 homers this year. Dunn is so all-or-nothing I wouldn't be surprised if he does terrible and doesn't even reach the Mendoza line. He could hit .270 and 50 dingers - I dunno. He's an enigma at this point. An enigma wrapped in shroud caught in a riddle stuck in fog surrounded by uncertainty. And he is worse than Carlos Lee in LF. And that is bad.... You wouldnt want someone that would hit 30 HRs and have a .375obp? If he hits .210 and strikes out 200 times as well? Heck no! That's not someone who does more good than bad for the team. We already have guys who can practically do that anyway - Kelton, Burnitz, Dubois, LOL, even Dopirak proabably. And 3 of those 4 would play better defense too. I'm not trying to bring down the man-love for Dunn, I'm just not sold on him. Is the guy a baseball player or an all-or-nothing 275 lb mook with a bat. Will he make Reggie Jackson and Dave Kingman look Tony Gwynn? I dunno. His HRs made his average ok last year, but that was when his slugging jumped 100 points from his career averages, the first time he finished above .500. I don't know if he's able to hit even .266 this year. Lookit this -If he drops 30 points in BA and that OBP is down to league average, and he doesn't hit at least 40 homers I'm pretty sure I don't want him on my team and don't know why you'd want him on yours. His speed is only going to decrease as he ages, as his SB attempts reflect, and that's not going to help his already bad D any either. I do know I'm glad he's not a Cub - he'd be more controversial than Dusty. I also know I'm glad I don't have to watch him hit 4 times a day. There's only one place for 'ballplayers' like that - the American League. LOL - so far he's had 12 abs, 1 bb, 7 ks, 2 hits, both of them dingers. Terrible baseball - good video baseball though. Even if you draw the most walks of any player not named Bonds, you have to hit at least .250 consistently. I'm not sold if Dunn can do that. We've already been thru the "he has a good OBP that renders his K stats useless, an out is an out" thing. Just thought I'd toss my two cents in for free again on Dunn. If he can hit .270 and 40 HRs this year, I won't have doubts. I may still think he's overrated tho....

dude, someone needs to slap you silly. Would you guys be so bananas about him if he hit .210/.375, 200Ks and only had 30 homers this year. Dunn is so all-or-nothing I wouldn't be surprised if he does terrible and doesn't even reach the Mendoza line. He could hit .270 and 50 dingers - I dunno. He's an enigma at this point. An enigma wrapped in shroud caught in a riddle stuck in fog surrounded by uncertainty. And he is worse than Carlos Lee in LF. And that is bad....

Wouldn't be surprised if he tanked it this year and hit .210. Not sold on Dunn yet.... I'd rather have (shudder) Carlos Lee in LF too.

See, like this, put this in rants. There's no baseball info here. Tho I may have been annoying in my describing of Dusty Busters, at least I had things like facts and reasons. Whatever tho, I know I post dumb stuff just for fun too so I'm not pretending to be above stuff like the above post. I think Tim will have fun savoring his decision and being the final arbiter of this fate of this thread: it has merits, but does it really, what about posts like the above, can we create a thread that criticizes Dusty intelligently without the flamers??? Heavy is the head that wears the crown.... Chill out, man! I'm just riffin' on your post. Post in Rants and I'll be glad to say that Baker su**s there too. I'm cool baby! It was a well placed post of yours that I got a kick out of. I'm not holding you responsible for all the Dusty Busting - Dusty Busting is a phonomenon. I was wondering should we have one thread that flames on Dusty and another thread just talking baseball for baseball's sake, and if they can coexist. It's a very heavy question....

I thought for the most part Maddux pitched pretty well. He had real great movement most of the night. If it wasn't for LuGo owning him we'd have won. Maddux wasn't great, but slow starter and all.... As long as we win tonight, 2 out of 3 on the road is very good. And really, how many times are we going to win this year when Nomar and Aram go 0 for 9? That we got 4 runs without our 2 big boppers helps me believe that we won't be scratching for 3 just runs every other day like we did last year. Combine that with that once Wood and Prior are in we'll be back to dominating when we score 4 or more runs and I think 161-1 is a real possibility.

Not to nitpick one little part of your well thought-out post, but I disagree with this idea. Just because Dusty was a good baseball player does not make him a good manager. There are countless examples where one does not translate to the other, in all sports (Magic Johnson is one example). Further, I think baseball is one sport where fans can have an understanding of "strategery" that is greater than or equal to the manager. I agree that the only situations that we are not privy to are the day in day out health issues of the players (and that includes things like guys having a bad hangover or the runs or something like that). In Dusty's case, there have been too many instances of glaringly poor managing to constantly hide behind the excuse that he has more information than we do. I would venture to say that there are a few folks around here that could do a better job managing a game than Dusty. Well thanks for the compliment. I think at least Dusty has a ton of experience on his side, definitely more than me and I'd guess more than most. He could misuse that info, like your point about Magic, that is somewhat true.... I will make this statement: there are a ton of people who think they could manager better than Dusty who actually can't. Most of them post on message boards. I think Zambo or Rusch are a guaranteed K in that situation. I think the opposing pitcher bears down and makes them look stupid. I think half of pitcher's hits come from the opposing pitcher not taking them seriously. I think anyone who advises using Rusch over Macias in a hitting situation needs to back away from the calculator.

I think that this cubreporter guy's saying that they should have used Rusch instead of Macias is a perfect case of how some people overestimate the value of statistics. There is no manager who would use Rusch over Neifi in that situation. If a manager did, he'd be run out of town.