CubfaninCA

Just a classic Congress/Sales proposal... Shoot real high. Hoping for something in between.

Good comments about Giles conditioning and him coming to Chicago. Was thinking for a while that maybe Giles was one of the juicers, but I haven't noticed him slimming down and do recall him being pretty stocky when playing in Cleveland. His brother has the same type of build, so perhaps it's in the genes, and not from some bottle (cough Barry, cough Sammy). Wouldn't be surprised to see Giles pull off another 4-5 solid years. He's built like a brick, and has been quite durable for some time.

He does have me worried. I'm not nearly as confident as many others seem to be that this is something temporary. I've been losing confidence per outing. I don't recall him dominating for quite some time now. I don't follow this team as closely as some.... Is his velocity down some this year?? I know he's not hitting his spots like he had been in the past. I hate throwing this out there, but I'm a cynic so can't help it. I recall someone saying a few years ago that Prior was on steroids. Can someone assure me this isn't so. I haven't noticed a substantial weight loss.

Aha found this thread. Kinda got buried under all the I hate Dusty/Neifi/Macias/Hendry threads. :o What's wrong w/ this guy?

The first move should be pulling off a deal for Marcus Giles, if he's available. Get Marcus Giles and his brother may come at a more Trib friendly rate. I don't get why they'll sign Preston Wilson?? Don't they have Pie pegged for cf by 2007?? It's highly unlikely that Wilson signs for one year and won't he want to sign w/ a team that will keep him in center for a while or will the Cubs move Pie to LF or RF?? My ideal 1-6 is Lofton, M. Giles, B. Giles, Lee, Floyd & ARam. If they can squeeze Furcal into the budget too, then keep Patterson in cf and leadoff Furcal.

Wilson will agree to play LF?? Am assuming he'll go somewhere where he can stay in cf.

Murton would be a tailor made 2 hole hitter, were it not for the manager of our team. Murton = 6 or 7 hitter in 06. That will probably be what happens, but Murton's skill set screams #2. Patience, decent power, hits to all fields, speed, doesn't try and pull the ball, etc. As UK said, the only problem is that he bats RH, but oh well. Agree. Wouldn't be surprised to see Murton traded.

Hopefully they bring back Hairston. He can fill several positions. Of course, he's injury prone too. :(

Murton would be a tailor made 2 hole hitter, were it not for the manager of our team. Murton = 6 or 7 hitter in 06.

And his road SLG was .462 in 2004. I'm just not very confident in Hendry getting even one high OBP player this offseason, asking him to get two might be too much. Realisticly Giles can be a fantastic 2 hitter, setting up Lee and Ramirez for numerous RBI opportunities. Even if you do get one more OBP guy there, Giles could still hit 2nd. I'd love to see Marcus/Brian/Lee to start every game for the Cubs. Giles would be a great 2 hitter, but do you think Baker would ever bat him there?? Most likely Baker would bat him 4th.

If you look at each team's committed contracts for 2006, and assume each team's 2006 payroll will be +/- 5% of 2005 payroll, it should shock nobody that Jim Hendry and Omar Minaya will have the most money to spend among all NL clubs this offseason. And I think Hendry will actually have a tad more available than Minaya. Therefore, salary per year should not be an issue for Hendry in terms of signing Giles. I think what it will come down to is the duration of contract. I can't see Hendry going above 3 guaranteed years, but I suspect the Mets, Dodgers and Cardinals could go with 4. Hoops If Boston trades Manny, can see them getting in there, and if he wants to win real bad, he may go to Anaheim for a discount. They can move Anderson to DH and put Giles in LF. Probably true about Boston. That's why I limited my comments just to NL teams. Boston and New York Yankees can out-spend the Cubs. I'm not so sure about Anaheim. They do free up $21M by letting Salmon, Washburn and Byrd walk, but half of that will go into raises for Vlad, Anderson, Colon, Cabrera, Escobar, Kennedy, Finley and Erstad. Sounds like they're raking in the revenue, so wouldn't be surprised to see Moreno up payroll some more and try to take more market share away from the Dodgers, who are tightening their budget. Damon's probably their #1 target though.

If you look at each team's committed contracts for 2006, and assume each team's 2006 payroll will be +/- 5% of 2005 payroll, it should shock nobody that Jim Hendry and Omar Minaya will have the most money to spend among all NL clubs this offseason. And I think Hendry will actually have a tad more available than Minaya. Therefore, salary per year should not be an issue for Hendry in terms of signing Giles. I think what it will come down to is the duration of contract. I can't see Hendry going above 3 guaranteed years, but I suspect the Mets, Dodgers and Cardinals could go with 4. Hoops If Boston trades Manny, can see them getting in there, and if he wants to win real bad, he may go to Anaheim for a discount. They can move Anderson to DH and put Giles in LF.

I think LA wows them for Dunn. Couple of those pitchers and Cincy will jump. That looks like a very good match Raw. LA has too deep of a minor league system to compete with. The Dodger prospects can't be looking too hot considering a lot of those guys got to play on the big club this year. Looks like Edwin Jackson may be a bust. Very few of their top prospects got to play with the big league club this year - their top 3 prospects are some order of Joel Guzman, Chad Billingsley and Andy LaRoche. Just because Edwin Jackson hasn't been that good doesn't change how good other players are and doesn't change the fact the Dodgers have one of the two best farm systems in baseball (I think it is the best system). If they won't deal the likes of Houlton, Jackson, Perez, etc. doubt these future stars are going anywhere either.

How 'bout picking him (and his hefty contract) up to play 3B along with Cabrera for LF (along with his 'tude) and flipping Ramirez and Nolasco to FLA? That deal is DOA. .0001% chance of this happening... Walker & Ramirez for Castillo, Lowell & Delgado. Move Lee to LF. Seems a good athlete like Lee should be able to make the transition.

I'd rather re-sign Bill Mueller and move him to 2B. Question - why hasn't Boston gone w/ Mueller @ 2b and Youkilis @ 3b?? Can bet that Dusty would like to have Mueller around again. Didn't he bat him 2nd in SF?

I think LA wows them for Dunn. Couple of those pitchers and Cincy will jump. That looks like a very good match Raw. LA has too deep of a minor league system to compete with. The Dodger prospects can't be looking too hot considering a lot of those guys got to play on the big club this year. Looks like Edwin Jackson may be a bust.

Believe it or not, a 10-run swing in a team's differential translates into about one win. The exact formula for Runs Per Win (RPW) is as follows: RPW = 10 * SQRT[(RS+RA)/(G*9)] That method for getting a W-L record from a team's differential actually works out to be more accurate than James' Pythagorean method. (Mostly because it adjusts for run environment... the fewer runs a team scores/allows, the fewer it needs to win ballgames.) So how many games has Neifi cost us this year?? 1 or 2? It depends on what you're comparing him to. If you compare him to a typical big-league hitter, then yes, his poor offensive production has cost us about a game and a half. (That's in a career year, mind you.) If you compare him to other SS, however, he's probably only cost us 1.1 - 1.2 games in the standings. Guess Neifi shouldn't be villified then. I'll take a wild guess and assume that Giles and Abreu lead in this stat.

oops :shock:

The signing of Burnitz sukked, but the pen has been alright for the past few months. He roll of the dice w/ Nomar didn't work. Did you want someone besides Nomar?? If Patterson comes through, the season is different too. I'm not going to hammer Hendry for the combined failures of Wood, Patterson and Nomar, and Prior's so-so season. Perhaps he should have dealt Patterson and Wood for something before they completely flopped this year?? Lots of woulda, coulda, shouldas... If anyone was proposing trading Wood & Patterson last offseason, and the signing of Pedro Martinez, then they should be considered the smartest people on this board. If this team's .500 next year, then I'll rip Hendry.

Yep pass judgement next year. This was a transition year. Their superstar, Sosa, was done and they had to eat about $15 million. Basically, they started the season w/ a budget that was 9th or 10th in baseball. The moves to question Hendry on are the signings of Maddux and Nomar, which tied up a considerable amount of money. Perhaps things would have turned out differently this season if that money had been put into Jeff Kent or Bartolo Colon. Of course, the Trib has never signed anyone to a deal that lasts longer than 4 year, so Colon was probably never considered. Altogether, if Prior and Wood are 100% for once, the Cubs will win 90+ next year.

I'd rather have Castillo or Giles. Getting Marcus Giles seems realistic. Probably no chance w/ Castillo.

Believe it or not, a 10-run swing in a team's differential translates into about one win. The exact formula for Runs Per Win (RPW) is as follows: RPW = 10 * SQRT[(RS+RA)/(G*9)] That method for getting a W-L record from a team's differential actually works out to be more accurate than James' Pythagorean method. (Mostly because it adjusts for run environment... the fewer runs a team scores/allows, the fewer it needs to win ballgames.) So how many games has Neifi cost us this year?? 1 or 2?

By that I meant if Choi had a similar number of PA's as Lee he'd produce about 55 fewer runs. That's just assuming he doesn't get manhandled in his 200 additional PA's. There's a reason why he sits so much. Still can't believe 55 runs = only 5-6 games.

B/c this year's numbers are so far out of line of his past numbers. This year he got off to an incredible start and has faded toward the end. Normally he starts off poor and then heats up. Be that as it may, he is 30 and at his peak but for him to have another season like this year would be remarkable. As I originally stated, he still is a top 5 1st baseman even at his career norms. There is no guarantee that any of the young players would be superstars, but I don't reacall anyone stating that they would. Maybe I need to re-read the thread. And as I stated above, I don't think the D-backs would make the deal. Nevertheless, it is fun to talk about it. Again, this does not take into account that Lee has changed his swing and plate coverage. With those improvements, he is not the same hitter he was when he set those career averages. I think he could very well hit .310/40 HR/105-110 RBI for the next few years. The Cubs have a ton of money to spend and lots of spare parts (resign Walker and Rusch) to trade without talking about trading one of the building blocks of the team. With players like Walker, Patterson, Rusch/Williams, Mitre, Hall, Welly, plus prospects, the Cubs ought to be able to fill one OF position plus a pitcher (starter or reliever). Spend the big money on big-time free agent (Furcal, Giles, etc.). Plan on starting Murton and Cedeno (at 2B or SS). Don't mess with Lee, Ramirez, Prior, Zambrano, and Barrett. Jmo but don't touch Z, Prior and Lee. After that everybodies available for a certain price. I wouldn't mind them dealing off ARam for another real good player or two. If there was some multi-player deal where the Cubs got back Chipper Jones and Giles, I wouldn't mind. Yes Ramirez is 27, and is entering his prime, but it sounds like he's not big on conditioning, so he could have problems down the line. Already, he'll miss 39 games this year and was banged up last year w/ a groin problem. Also, he's not an all around player like Lee. I'm not a huge Barrett fan.

Adjusting for opportunity, the difference between Lee and Choi this season works out to be about 55 runs, or 5-6 wins. In your proposed scenario, I'd say that a Cubs team with Choi+$8 million worth of produciton elsewhere would finish 3-4 games behind the Cubs with Lee manning first. Worse, but not radically so. Sub in Tracy for Choi, and difference dwindles down to a game or less... I find that hard to believe given Choi has a lot less at bats than Lee.