Eephus Speed

Just wait until the schedule shifts and the back 3 in their rotation catch a good team. The Cardinals right now are the best team in the central but they are far from a lock. If either Gorz or Silva continues to pitch well the Cubs rotation will be deeper than anyone in the central. We're 44-22 since the start of last season in games started by Carpenter or Wainwright. We're 40-16 in Wainwright's starts dating back to the start of the 2008 season. Those 2 provide a pretty big safety net. The back 3 are fine. Penny and Lohse are league average, and Garcia is a very talented youngster. As a Cardinals fan, I'm not worried about effectiveness. Health is my only concern. Our bullpen is more iffy. Franklin (with his flukishly low HR/FB%) and Hawksworth (very low BABIP) are probably not going to get nearly as lucky as they did in '09, though anything is possible when you're talking about a measly 50 or 60 innings. Brad Thompson's departure, on the other hand, is addition by subtraction. Having a strong defense (Molina, Ryan, Rasmus, Pujols, etc.) and a groundball staff helps a lot. Not to mention an offense that should be quite a bit better than it was last year. But are we a lock? Of course not. I do think, though, that the Cardinals (along with the Phillies) are in a pretty comfortable situation.

You'd need to do some pitch f/x analysis to figure out exactly what's changed, but Zambrano's peripherals have remained fairly steady. His GB/FB has declined, however. His BB rate has always sucked, while his K rate has always been above average. He threw a ton of pitches at a very young age. All that said, Zambrano has maintained an ERA that's much better than average (striking out 7-8 per 9 helps a lot).

Every 5th day, I like their chances. Actually, they were only 17-16 in Greinke's starts last year, so nevermind. Edit: They're about to lose today's game in spite of Greinke pitching well and leaving with a lead. Surely the Royals could find better management in this world of 7 billion people.

The Braves won the NL East in 2005, they won 86 games last year and they're expected to contend this year. They've had a couple of sub-.500 years recently, but they've had a lot of success over the last 12 years. I thought about that. On the other hand, because first base produces more offense than any other position and because there are so many great hitters who are first basemen, I suspect most teams have quite a bit of stability at the position (at least a handful of years with the same first baseman).

That's pretty crazy. If we were talking about a middle infielder or a backup catcher, I wouldn't be that surprised. The Cardinals, for instance, have gone through quite a few second basemen since Vina left. And, yet, the Braves have been pretty damn successful. Once again, they're expected to contend.

Again, if picking a team to make the postseason isn't outrageous, I don't see how picking that team to win the WS is outrageous. I'd probably rank the White Sox as the 5th or 6th best team in the AL. The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Angels would be 1-4. I think the White Sox, Mariners, Twins, Tigers and Rangers are comparable. But, if you make the postseason, then it's just a matter of winning 3 series. You can lose 8 postseason games out of 19 and win the World Series. There'll be stretches when the worst teams in baseball win 11 of 19. Regarding St. Louis's question marks, they're not really in the lineup. I think our lineup is pretty predictable. Last season, we got league average offense (~100 OPS+) from C, 2B, SS, LF and RF. I think we may lose a little offense at SS but gain at least that much from CF. We should get quite a bit more offense from LF. And we got so little from 3B last year that it's hard to believe Freese and Co. can't outperform Thurston and Co. Our defense should be better (no Duncan, no Thurston, etc.). Our question marks are in the pitching staff. Carpenter's health is always a concern. Penny's health is a concern, but we don't need him to repeat Pineiro's 2009 numbers (and keep in mind that we lost 14 of Pineiro's 32 games). We just need ~200 league average innings. Same goes for Lohse. I like Garcia's chances of giving us more than we got from Wellemeyer et al. Franklin will more than likely regress (maybe an ERA closer to 3.5 than 2)...not so much because of his BABIP, but because of his HR/FB%. Hawksworth is another one who should regress--hopefully he'll be replaced or only serve as a mopup guy. Brad Thompson's gone, so that helps. Motte and Boggs shouldn't be any worse at the very least. Miller might regress some--especially his walk rate.

Yeah, the difference in defensive value can't be overstated. Dye's career UZR/150 in RF is -15.1 and he's been -21 or worse each of the last 4 years (-24.5 last season). Fukudome's career UZR/150 in RF is 18.2. Dye had a negative WAR in 2009, whereas Fukudome was worth 2.3 wins.

I don't see why. The postseason is pretty much a crapshoot, and the White Sox have the makings of an outstanding rotation that could carry them through a few postseason rounds (or what appears to be a weak offense could get hot for a few weeks). And I like their chances of winning the AL Central, though a case can be made for the Twins and Tigers. That said, if I bothered to predict pennant and WS winners, I admit that I'd pick at least a couple of teams (the Yankees, the Red Sox, maybe the Angels) over the White Sox. I put these two quoted posts together to point out how hard we are on the Cubs and not other teams. Erik posted that we need a whole bunch of stuff to go right to get to 85 wins, yet the White Sox are counting on Andruw Jones, Mark Kotsay, Mark Teahen, Juan Pierre, Alexi Ramirez, and Alex Rios to produce as everyday regulars and Carlos Quentin to stay healthy and have a rebound year. The Sox have the starting rotation, but their lineup stinks. Just to clarify, I'm a Cardinals fan. The White Sox do have what appears to be a weak offense (I haven't studied them enough to know how their defense projects), but they're also in a very weak division (85 wins might take the division). Not that the NL Central is all that strong, but I think it's stronger than the AL Central. The following are the CHONE WAR and PA projections for STL's and CHI's starting 8 with last year's WAR in parentheses: Molina: 3.5 WAR, 490 PA (3.4 WAR) Soto: 3.2 WAR, 429 PA (1.2 WAR) Pujols: 7.2 WAR, 634 PA (8.5 WAR) Lee: 3.0 WAR, 573 PA (5.3 WAR) Schumaker 1.6 WAR, 502 PA (1.3 WAR) Fontenot 1.3 WAR, 386 PA (0.3 WAR) Freese 1.8 WAR, 388 PA (0.2 WAR--34 PA) Ramirez 3.4 WAR, 499 PA (2.5 WAR) Ryan 2.7 WAR, 412 PA (3.1 WAR) Theriot 2.2 WAR, 586 PA (2.8 WAR) Holliday 4.9 WAR, 646 PA (5.7 WAR) Soriano 1.8 WAR, 539 PA (-0.7 WAR) Rasmus 3.4 WAR, 477 PA (2.2 WAR) Byrd 2.6 WAR, 513 PA (2.4 WAR) Ludwick 2.0 WAR, 511 PA (1.9 WAR) Fukudome 2.3 WAR, 546 PA (2.3 WAR) That's about a 7-win advantage for the Cardinals. Of course, that doesn't include benches or pitching staffs. And, yes, it's merely a projection--both the playing time and value could prove to be way off the mark.

I don't see why. The postseason is pretty much a crapshoot, and the White Sox have the makings of an outstanding rotation that could carry them through a few postseason rounds (or what appears to be a weak offense could get hot for a few weeks). And I like their chances of winning the AL Central, though a case can be made for the Twins and Tigers. That said, if I bothered to predict pennant and WS winners, I admit that I'd pick at least a couple of teams (the Yankees, the Red Sox, maybe the Angels) over the White Sox.

Yes. Career WAR of 66.6 (so far).

Re-posting my prediction with W-L records: AL East Yankees 99-63 Red Sox 96-66 (WC) Rays 90-72 Orioles 72-90 Blue Jays 68-94 AL Central White Sox 87-75 Twins 85-77 Tigers 84-78 Indians 71-91 Royals 67-95 AL West Angels 90-72 Mariners 85-77 Rangers 83-79 A's 79-83 NL East Phillies 93-69 Braves 88-74 (1-game playoff vs. COL) Marlins 81-81 Mets 81-81 Nationals 70-92 NL Central Cardinals 91-71 Cubs 85-77 Reds 82-80 Brewers 81-81 Astros 71-91 Pirates 69-93 NL West Dodgers 90-72 Rockies 88-74 (1-game playoff vs. ATL) D'backs 81-81 Giants 80-82 Padres 69-93

Aside from Joe Nathan's potentially significant injury, has Spring Training produced any major injury news? AL East: NYY, BOS (WC), TB, BALT, TOR AL Central: CHI, MIN, DET, CLE, KC AL West: LAA, SEA, TEX, OAK NL East: PHI, ATL, FLA, NYM, WASH NL Central: STL, CHI, CIN, MIL, HOU, PIT NL West: LAD, COL (WC), AZ, SF, SD Poor Rays. Tampa probably has the 3rd best team in the AL and I'd rank them 5th in all of MLB (following NYY, BOS, PHI and STL). I was tempted to put BOS, MIN and COL in 1st place. If it turns out Nathan can pitch, I might bump the Twins ahead of the White Sox.

Magdal, Pujols had 34 HR at the end of July and ended up with 47. He hit 7 HR and 10 2B in August. He hit 6 HR and 11 2B in Sept/Oct. His BB rate was normal in each of those months. His K rate in August was a little high, but it was the same as it was in June. Pujols had more RBI in each of those months than he had in either May or July. July was easily his worst month of the season. He's had much worse stretches in the past, such as his first couple of months in 2007. Fun fact for the day: I just realized his June BABIP was only .243, yet he posted an OPS of 1.283 that month. Anyway, this whole discussion is rather meaningless due to sample size issues (monthly splits are kind of silly).

You'd have to be thrilled if your worst SP pitches 180 IP with a league average 4.25 ERA. Or even a 4.75 ERA. Afterall, the difference between 4.25 and 4.75 is only 10 runs. Silva has an extraordinarily low K rate, but he also had a very low BB rate prior to 2009. With excellent control and an above average GB rate, there's a slim chance Silva will prove useful. I wouldn't bet on it, though.

As others have stated, Utley+Hamels would be too much. I was thinking Utley+prospect. But Philly would need to get rid of Howard. As a Cards fan, I wouldn't trade Pujols for Howard+Hamels. Utley would have to be part of any deal, and that will never happen.

Smoltz gave up a bunch of HR when he was pitching for Boston, but his K rate and BB rate (and his HR rate w/STL) were excellent. But he's probably not a bullpen candidate at this point.

I haven't checked to be sure, but Utley has probably been MLB's 2nd most valuable position player over the last 5 years. And his contract is ridiculously good for the Phillies. We're never going to trade Pujols, but if we were to engage in talks with Philly, the conversation starts and ends with Utley+.

FWIW, which may not be much, I take issue with a lot of those predictions. No way the Twins win 92 and I think his AL West predictions are really screwy. I don't think the Angels are going to be the .500 team that several projection systems are forecasting them to be. They probably won't win 97 like last year, but that's still a damn good team. A full year of Kazmir plus Pineiro (even with regression) should more than make up for the loss of Lackey. Figgins was great last year, and losing him certainly hurts...but Brandon Wood isn't hopeless. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Boston or Tampa win the AL East. I won't be surprised if New York wins it, but I think those 3 teams will be bunched pretty closely. I think the Reds are more likely to win 84 than 74. Bruce, Votto, Rolen, Phillips, good defense, pretty solid rotation even without Volquez, and several reliable relievers. That's not a bad team there in Cincinnati. His other NL Central predictions aren't unreasonable, but I think the Brewers will be a few games better. I actually like his NL West predictions, though I'd switch Arizona and Colorado. Arizona, though, should be one of the most improved teams in baseball. San Fran's offense is so crappy that 80 wins doesn't seem unreasonable to me--in spite of their impressive rotation.

Let's sum up that piece. Bay has more RBI than Cameron, therefore Bay has more value. And stat geeks don't have any interest in women. Brilliant. It would seem Thornton is about as dense as most mainstream sportswriters.

Lopez will probably platoon with Schumaker at 2B and back up Freese at 3B. Lopez is much better than Schumaker vs. LHP. He's been a plus defender at 2B and at 3B, though he hasn't played the latter very often. Hopefully Lopez won't see much time at SS. I'm not real high on Lopez, but for $1-2M, I'll take him.

More innings from Harang and Bailey, big improvement from Bruce, more offense from CF and having Rolen for a full season are all reasonable expectations, which could make the Reds an 85-win team. But, yeah, 85 is probably a tad optimistic. I like my new name better, too. I take it you're a GRB participant?

More projections: http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/optimist2010.htm I still prefer these: http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html Or, better yet, mine: http://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=39197

I prefer these projections: http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html I'd probably swap the Reds and Cubs. The Angels winning only 81 games surprises me. 85-90 seems more likely to me. Pineiro and a full season from Kazmir should make up for losing Lackey, who missed a good chunk of time last year. Matsui replaces Vlad. Figgins had a great '09 and losing him is big. I guess Brandon Wood will be playing 3B. But they won 97 games last year, and I don't see them falling to .500.

Cardinals fan here, so you can take what I have to say with a grain of salt. I think the Cubs will finish above .500. But I do think both the Reds and Brewers stand a good chance of being right there with the Cubs. Bruce will probably have a big year, and the Reds have a strong defense. Rolen's still a valuable player. FWIW, CHONE's projection for Matt Maloney (Cincy's probable #5 starter) is pretty decent. They obviously need Harang and Bailey to pitch a lot more innings this year. If Wolf and Davis can more or less replicate their '09 seasons, what was an 80-win Brewers team should have a much-improved rotation. Weeks staying healthy would also help. Tough to say what they'll get from CF to replace Cameron.