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NoDak

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  1. NoDak
    Craig Wilson is an Atlanta Brave. How about Jason Bay instead. :wink: But, to make it fair for the Pirates, we should give them the choice of 3 PTBNL's and include Les Walrond and Roberto Novoa as their other options. My thought was, as long as we are going with players that USED TO be on a Pirate roster why not go for Brian Giles. I think PIT would be more willing to make that deal than Jason Bay...just a hunch. :wink:
  2. NoDak
    I think there are two kinds of closers: Good ones and guys who have good seasons. Good ones are guys like Rivera, Gagne, Smoltz (also an outstanding starter), Wagner... Guys who have good "seasons" are guys like Dempster, Kolb, Tim Worrell (Giants). The trick is realizing when you have a good pitcher and when you have caught lightning in a bottle.
  3. NoDak
    From what I have read I think it is more like he will be battling Cedeno and Theriot for the last 1-2 spots on the roster. I would not mind having Hill and Theriot in the last couple of spots on the roster.
  4. NoDak

    NoDak replied to kujay's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    I agreed with you at first glance, but after further looking, I don't know. Soriano had a line of .277/.351/.560 and Hall had a line of .270/.345/.553. Soriano's OPS+ 132, Hall 126. Hall is going into his 27 year old season. Soriano is going into his 31 year old season. This covers over 600 PAs for both so sample size isn't a huge issue. Hall has a better SB% (but a very small sample size). Short story, I didn't know Hall was THAT good! I do take issue with his analysis of starting pitchers. Giving Sheets = Zambrano with a plus for Sheets if "completely healthy." Sheets, even when "completely healthy" is no match for Z. Looking at their career stats it comes out more strongly in favor of Zambrano. Looking at last year's stats looks grossly in favor of Zambrano. Even though Sheets wasn't healthy that year. Going back to his last "healthy season" (3 years ago) he was still not as good as Z was that same year with Z 2 years younger. Thanks for the post though. As you said, it is interesting to see how other team's fans look at CHC.
  5. NoDak
    First of all, fluky things happen in baseball every year. It is possible that we would need to use an "emergency catcher." While it is interesting to speculate who would fill that role, I agree with those who basically say, "Who cares." I don't mean to make light of the issue. I just feel that the emergency catcher is such an unlikely event that anyone can "throw on the gear" and "catch" for a couple of innings if necessary. Is it going to evolve into a threat to Barrett/Blanco's position on the team? No, of course not. It would be for a couple of innings at most (in the unlikely event that it will occur) and the next game the original starting catcher would be available and, presuming it is the following day, Soto, Fox or another minor league farmhand would be available. My guess is that Piniella will have a couple of guys "audition" for the spot during spring training while "warming up" lots of pitchers at the same time and the existing catcher's aren't enough to go around (there are more pitchers than catchers). My vote is on Daryl Ward, though, simply because he looks more like the "prototypical catcher" (in my mind defined by Mike LaVallier) than the likes of Marmol, Theriot. God help us if we put Floyd and his already questionable knees back there! :shock:
  6. NoDak
    I'm with you. How do you get a League MVP to sign for $4.5M when we are spending $7M/yr for Jason Marquis. Even if it is arbitration, I think Morneau could have gotten more than that in arbitration.
  7. NoDak
    Just the fact that he is throwing a significant number of pitches off the mound in January is good news. Over the last couple of years he reached this point in May/June it seems.
  8. NoDak
    He is "contending" for a starting spot because Hendry probably believes that having "competition" will bring out the best in him. Besides, we have, like, 8 guys "contending" for starting spots. Some of them have to be considered "contending and apparently Prior was put into that category. I guess I have no problem with that since he was exceptional in 2003 but that was a few years ago and has had much less success since then. He needs to show that he is healthy.
  9. NoDak
    I'm ready for April to get here as well. Even though I'm in Alabama, it's cold and depressing down here also. I'm planning on making a trip to Chi-Town for the series at Wrigley against the Reds the weekend of April 14th. 1. Welcome to the forum. Look forward to talking baseball with you. 2. What do you mean, "cold"? Right now it is 0 degrees outside with a 25 mph sustained wind (35 mph gusts) resulting in a windchill of -23.
  10. NoDak
    I may misunderstand it, but I think the arbitrator has to pick one or the other rather than "split the middle" of the two offers. One wins; the other loses.
  11. NoDak
    Well, I suppose that is better than simply choosing by players with names that are easiest to spell. :lol:
  12. NoDak
    As a contingency they have their entire city praying for rain 5 days a week!
  13. NoDak
    Good analysis. I agree. I have long had differences with those who argue that the manager is a huge influence on won/loss record. While there are some exceptions (Bobby Cox comes immediately to mind) the fact is that rarely does a manager really have a huge "positive" impact on a team that can't be explained any other way. Baker came in and got outstanding seasons out of Wood, Prior. A rejuvenated season out of Karros, Grudzielanek, Lofton, Borowski. An .800 OPS from AGonz...In short lots of things broke right for him and he was hailed as a genious. He was the same Dusty in 04-06 and gained VERY different results. Similar things happened with Leyland in DET. We'll see how good he is over the next couple of years.
  14. NoDak
    Did I miscount or do you have 38 players listed here? Who would be 25-man roster spots and who would have 40-man roster spots. Here is my list of 25-man roster: OF: Jones, Murton, Soriano, Floyd, Ward (Also backing up 1B) Infield: Lee, DeRosa, Izturis, Ramirez, Barrett, Blanco, Theriot, Cedeno Rotation: Z, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Prior Pen: Dempster, Wood, Eyre, Cotts, Howry, Ohman If possible, I can see Eyre and Jones being dealt and their spots taken by Pagan and Wuertz respectively. If Miller, Marshall, Guzman impresses, it could really throw a wrench into things. If this is the roster I am concerned about the lack of a power hitting infielder off the bench (like Nevin).
  15. NoDak
    My stance is that there are no "positions" as there are in a sport like football or basketball. A team is entitled to 9 defenders in the field. They can all stand in a clump if they want to. In fact, there are fewer regulations regarding player positioning than in other sports (basketball has the 3-second rule, football has "illegal formations"). You don't sign a "shortstop" you put the players out on the field that have the best chance of combination of offense and defense. Traditionally someone stands between 2nd base and the thirdbasemen. :lol: Don't take this too seriously. It was mainly a spoof of quoted statement. I think we all know what he meant.
  16. NoDak
    Hey, even perfect mechanics have trouble with a fullspeed runner and a screaming line drive. What are the odds a pitcher would suffer two such injuries in such a short span of time? That was my first thought too, but if he had better mechanics he would have "crashed" more gracefully into Giles and not put his elbow in the way of a screaming line drive from Brad Hawpe :lol:. Actually, only last year did he start having "mechanics" problems and I think that was largely him trying to "shortcut" his rehab. This is the "healthiest" he has been in several years and may even break camp with the rest of the team. I am having good thoughts about a rotation with a healthy Prior and Zambrano at the top of it with Rich Hill following it up.
  17. NoDak
    It is the easiest position to play, but a great defender can certainly make a difference there. I think there is less variance in first baseman defensively in that below average to average is not as large of a difference at first base than other positions. When you start to get towards good to great though where a person starts picking many more balls out of the dirt, stretching that extra bit to get the out, and having the range to turn some doubles down the line into outs, that's where the difference really starts to come in. In short, at a position like shortstop or center field the first key for defense has to be somebody who can make the routine plays. If they can't make the routine plays consistently, they can hurt you defensively. At first base, just about anyone can make the routine plays, so the focus shifts to who can make the non-routine plays. I think there is more opportunity to make non-routine plays at first than many other positions because of the frequency of chances. I agree with you that Pujols is the best player in baseball. I read an article a while back saying that the way to judge 1B defensively is to sort out how many times they did things that aren't common. Looking at FPCT is useless because it is mostly relatively easy PO. The stat they they looked at was "assists NOT to the pitcher" where suddenly Grace, Keith Hernandez, and others considered good defensive 1B started really shining.
  18. NoDak
    I am not excited about the names on the home jerseys. I think it looks cleaner and sharper with them off and when they are on they always looked like an afterthought to me. Besides, it is cool that we have to actually learn the numbers and recognize faces of the players. Keep the names on the "away" jerseys and leave them off of the home jersey.
  19. NoDak
    I honestly don't see that being a problem. Especially if he ia a closer he can start warming up in the 5th inning if he wants to. As a closer it would usually be known when he would be used quite a while in advance. Put on top of that that usually there are a plethora of pitching changes at the end of the game resulting in lots of "down time" that can help him get in several dozen additional warm-up tosses. A couple of visits to the mound by Barrett and an occasional visit from Izturis to discuss "pick-off moves" and he would be all set with all the time in the world. I also think Kerry will keep the hook but only break it out every 1-2 outings and if his arm is hurting at all he could just leave it on the shelf for the day. He could well be a dominant closer once his stamina is worked up to that point. I am also not worried about his "walks" because he also has the ability to just blow people away. KW is one of those rare pitchers who can walk the bases full and then strike out the side even it if is Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds. A Kerry Wood that only needs to gas it up for 15-25 pitches per game is a Kerry Wood I look forward to seeing.
  20. NoDak
    I think this is probably the issue here. Not so much "is player x worthy of the HOF or is he a card carrying member of the 'hall of Good.'" What separates the "very good" from the "elite" and how is that distinction made. What makes player A "elite" while player B is merely "very good"? Also, I agree we cannot simply elect everyone to the hall that is "better" than the worst member of the hall. This is a faulty logic and simply punishes the hall for its past mistakes. I think that Brock was elected partly (read: largely) on basis of his 3023 hits. He achieved a "magic number" for hits.
  21. NoDak
    Isn't one of the "5 tools" defense. I don't think Soriano really has much of that tool. My understanding is he is a trainwreck at 2B and serviceable in the outfield.
  22. NoDak
    He could, but how can you assume that when he's only done that once in his career? Albeit, he hasn't really been healthy since then, but still 1 year is a small sample size, especially after 3 years of not pitching regularly. I agree that one season is not much to judge from, but there are a couple of other reasons I believe this (and by the way, I am thinking that Prior at 80% would not be THAT good): 1. That season was a full season and was over 200 IP. While saying "1 season" is a small sample size, it was a decent sample size for a season and it was dominant. 2. Very few people were surprised by that season. It was what most people were expecting from him. He was highly touted by scouts and "stat guys" alike. 3. That was his "healthiest season" (he did miss time that year too) so I feel comfortable saying that, if healthy, Prior would be dominant again. 4. He is 26 years old. It would be different if his "breakout" year took place at age 35. Why would people on here be so high on Rich Hill after a half season of solid pitching but not Mark Prior after a full season of very solid pitching (looking at the splits there is no comparison between Hill's 2nd half and Prior's in 2003)? Prior knows how to pitch. If he can avoid the "freak injuries (2x injured on basepaths, once hit on pitching elbow with a line-drive) I think he will be solid. Let me make one thing clear. I am not saying that Prior will be healthy this year or that he will be this dominant. If you re-read the first sentence of my original post it said "a healthy, or even 80%, Mark Prior could..." And, again, I am thinking that the 80% version would be at the low end of that prediction.
  23. NoDak
    If not before... I agree. However, with Boras as his agent (if he is still z's agent) I'm thinking talks won't start until after Zito is signed. Just my 2 cents. Either way, I expect Hendry to get him signed. Hendry seems to be playing with monopoly money this year. Hendry will sign him or be prepared to lose him. Hendry takes pride in that he has never actually had to exchange figures with a player. Instead, he signs them first. The trick is will it be a 1-year deal or a long term deal? That I can't answer with as much certainty.
  24. NoDak
    Personally, depending on what Piniella thinks of him, I would rather get Baldelli from TPA. While he is not as good as Jones he is further from cashing in at FA. Acquiring him would also allow us free reign to trade Pie as part of a package to help some of out other needs. I also think that we would be able to acquire Baldelli for less than Jones. While I realize that Baldelli is not the equivalent of Jones I don't know if I am willing to spend the additional cash it will add to the budget to get Andruw Jones. What if we ship jones and a mid-level prospect to TPA. They put JJ into a corner outfield spot and move Crawford into CF. We would save about $10M which would go a long way to fixing other problems that we have and would allow Pie to be available to acquire someone else.
  25. NoDak
    That's a reasonable request, but some posters may not feel inclined to back up their sentiments with much more than a blanket opinion at this point and time. Some, and I really hate using a point Goony made :D , may want to wait until the offseason is done, have more info on Prior's health, etc... before they make a more analyzed opinion. I know I'm waiting. It's probably just better to dismiss an opinion that doesn't meet your expectations rather than complain about it. Otherwise, you end up getting completely off course from the original intent of the thread. This thread is a perfect example. Now, to get back on topic, admittedly, I am pessimistic about this coming season. I did briefly discuss each transaction in another thread and I gave Hendry a "B" grade for the offseason moves to date. I don't find a "B" grade to be a pessimistic grade, but actually I think it is. Why? Because with the improvements this team needed to make this offseason and the available money to spend, there is no excuse for not getting an "A". This team needed to make major improvements and I don't think they've done that. They get a "B" for recognizing the biggest needs and addressing them, but I'm not sure it's enough to get them much over .500 in a division that I think will be better than last year. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are two teams that I think will be better as their young players continue to develop. St. Louis and Houston may be taking a step back at this point, but will it be enough of a step back to continue calling the NL Central the weakest division in baseball? I'm not so sure. You are correct that there is still a lot of off-season left and that things can change dramatically before (and after for that matter) opening day. However, I do think that there have been improvements made (it would be difficult to get much worse). Honestly, I don't think that a B is really that bad of a grade at this point, but that is me. With all the problems with this team I don't think it is realistic to have them all "corrected" by this point in the off season and maybe not even this year.
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