Eric Clipperton

Luckily the big free agent won't be hitting second, that'll be Ryan Theriot's spot cause second basemen hit second, dude. Just like the hero of all second basemen and therefore all Cubs as well, Ryne Sandberg. Although I guess after Theriot bunts Soriano over, but Soriano is somehow an even worse runner than he is now as his legs continue to deteriorate a bit more each day, but since he can't bunt and wants to hit leadoff Ryne puts him there...then, the big free agent acquisition who will probably be Brad Hawpe or someone equally terrible, will probably have to execute the 1-out #3 hitter bunt to second. But I will have eaten cyanide for breakfast, so I will be sitting quietly in front of the TV while you all wish for a similar way to end the inevitable pain. IT'S GONNA HAPPEN (idiocy, double-sac-bunts, benching Aramis for watching HRs, etc.)

davearm2: You say if Harden has a 3.00 ERA and Samardzjia has a 6.00, this makes Harden end up being worth a 4.50 ERA guy in a full season. The problem with this is that 6.00 is well below replacement level pitching, therefore it would have negative value. This negative value is then being subtracted out from Harden's true performance value to arrive at your $7MM figure. You can't just assume that the fill-in is horrible, and it makes no sense to me why the poor choice of fill-in starter should penalize Harden in the analysis. You can see how bumping up the bad half of the platoon pitcher to a 5.00 ERA level now makes "Harden+caddy" a half point ERA better over the full season, to a suddenly nice 4.00 ERA pitcher. That is to say more Ryan Dempster than Marquis, and value in this altered version would be well above 10MM. This is all to say that valuing a player based on the potential (poor) contributions of another injury fill-in is generally way off as a model in aggregate, and while Harden is gone now, this saga has brought up some interesting points to consider in the process. On a related note, I am all for taking a chance on Ben Sheets- perhaps he wants to stick it to Milwaukee?

I'm with you on this- I feel like it shouldn't be that hard to somehow get a word in to someone high up in the organization, although I don't actually know of any such way off hand. I think that if a bunch of people worked on contacting the team to voice their opinion especially on something like having Sandberg manage, that provided such an effort is coordinated and focused, it would be frankly hard not to get that message to a wider audience which would eventually reach the decision makers in some form. I would definitely show up at games with signs speaking out against hiring Sandberg, which along with blog posts and open letters to Jim Hendry (perhaps this is a good thread idea? your very best work at an open letter to Hendry, which could then be compiled and spread through the blogosphere with the final goal of reaching high-level club officials in demand of an explanation. If they can honestly support Sandberg in any way other than a pure money grab based on spiking casual fan short-term interest, I would love to hear it-because it would truly be groundbreaking and unexpected. I just would like to know if the Cubs are really that monumentally stupid, or are going for a pure money grab, and to have to lie directly to my face to justify their move rather than through several levels of media filters. I think I could walk away cleanly from Wrigley if that did happen, safe in the decision to not support a team that cannot stand firmly behind the moves they make without getting defensive and propagandist. Yeah, I am just looking for a revolution, nothing too unusual, but I think the choices for how to try are more varied than ever before, so hey hey whaddya say? I am willing to spend way more time than is professionally wise working on this project, but it would all be worth it either to never have to see Ryno booed off the field after being an idiotic manager.

LOL I agree with everything you wrote. The problem is alot of those people buy tickets, and the last thing Ricketts will want is those people booing Milton Bradley every game. Plus they will be flooding sports radio with dumb comments about the subject as well. This is just another reason why there's probably no chance Bradley is back. The great thing about sports radio is that when people are calling in with dumb comments, it takes them a lot more effort to add each additional comment to the idiocy than it would had they all been attempting to vent their frustrations on the high-tech system for spewing stupidity with unprecedented efficiency, the Internet.

Thats true, but this knowledge comes from the players and from a recovery standpoint. Of course like anything some guys can adjust to it better then others. But alot of pitchers need to be a on a regular routine to have the most success. It's a bit different then some 45 year old reporter saying Derrek Lee isn't a good middle of the order hitter, because he's only had over 100 RBI's twice in his career, or some garbage about Zambrano being bad because he had only nine wins last season. Most players have no idea what makes them good or bad players. They just are.

I would be with you, but after I saw the way the players reacted with relief after Bradley was suspended at the end of the year, I am pretty certain it would be better for the team to play next year without Bradley. For me the trouble with that is how much of that was truly directed at Bradley and how much was that just frustration over the crappy season and looking for someone to blame? Or how much of that was just based on the feelings at that moment due to a specific incident? Bradley made plenty of stupid comments/decisions, but I think it's reasonable to think that effectively starting fresh with a new season that it would be a much different situation. I think it would basically come down to how the 2010 season kicks off. If the team is winning and/or Bradley isn't ice cold again I highly doubt anyone on the team is going to have a problem with him. If the team was winning, or Bradley started off the season well, it would mask a lot. But overall I see Bradley as a cancer to this Cubs team. The core of the team seems to strongly dislike Bradley, and while it won't directly affect their play, it will have an effect on the 2010 season. I do see your viewpoint though. Even if Bradley was only a minor nuisance with occasional outbursts, I'd be willing to keep Bradley because there's no way we'll be a better team on paper after trading Bradley for whoever they get. But I think the bridge has been burned, and having Bradley back next year would be horrible for the Cubs. Baseball is an individual sport. Clubhouse cancer is just another excuse to point fingers.

According to Fangraphs he was worth $8.2 million. Their dollar figures are a bunch of crap. Why is that? Because you say so? While they may not always be accurate in some cases, since especially some elements of luck are not really "value" but are counted as such in the figures, I think in Harden's case these factors were such that he was somewhat undervalued by Fangraphs numbers in 2009, if anything.

Especially after Bradley has a great year and continually mentions how the Cubs didn't want him, didn't believe in him, and don't deserve the lucky break they caught. Which would all be true.

Do you, perhaps, have anything other than conjecture to make this argument? I pay attention to those human elements, but think that you are weighing those far too heavily. I am willing to change my opinion here, because I would like to feel more comfortable about losing Harden for nothing, but you have said nothing that's even come close to changing my mind. Does this guy have anything but conjecture behind any argument? The number of falsehoods that he passes along as fact are truly staggering, as if nothing exists outside of every baseball myth ever promulgated by hack columnists, managers, and nostalgia addicts as these cliche-powered machines soldier on, demonstrate the sad irony, that ignorance is bliss.

I would prefer bringing back Dusty to hiring Sandberg. Even if Dusty brings Aaron Miles with him to fill the gritty second baseman spot in the batting order for 600 PAs, I think I still like the Dusty side of this deal. Hell is a bad place, folks.

This might be the new strategy allowing Bradley to stay: get players so crazy and unlikeable that he is no longer the most hated Cub, while Padilla, Sidney Ponson, and other terrible people and players alike populate the roster. Padilla is straight up crazy. And horrible.

And Castro taking BP before said Rising Stars game. oh wow I just got even more excited about Castro after watching this BP session I know it's BP, but watching how buttery smooth his swing looks makes me even more confident that we might have a LOT to look forward to with Starlin. He certainly looks like a hitter, albeit a very very young one physically.

Legalize it.

I'm not following the irony. Maybe "irony" wasn't the right word to use, but it's very unusual for somebody to play for someone they were once traded for.Unusual, coincidental maybe...but I wouldn't say ironic. I would. http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ironic That dictionary is pretty weak. Neither the OED nor Webster's includes this definition of irony; for the example sentence to be irony, the entire meaning of the word would basically have to change to encompass these types of coincidental situations which often are, ironically, only ironic due to the speaker's malapropism. The narrator doesn't know why she was seated next to the ex, but since someone might have placed the two next to each other to add drama to dinner, or it could be alphabetical order, etc. Many decidedly non-ironic reasons might be the case. Non-ironic supposed ironies are one of my top grammar/usage pet peeves, and judging by this thread I am not alone in thinking this. Begs the question being used to mean raises the issue/question, rather than the logical fallacy; feeling "nauseous" when really one means they feel nauseated these are some of my other top couple Grammar/Usage Police missions which will certainly be futile in reaching any accomplishment besides annoying some people on the internet...not that there's anything wrong with that.

Castillo is the missing piece in the clubhouse chemistry which will bring the Cubs a 150 win season and World Series title!! If they make this trade...I'll be both angry and relieved; because I don't think it would be a good deal by any means, but given the likely alternatives, it has to be somewhere around the 70th percentile of MB trade outcomes given the incredible amount of value-killing the Cub FO has been able to do since they embarked on this furious and lengthy MB-dumping mission.

This is a terrible idea, unless Jermaine only wants about $1MM for some reason, like maybe he loves Chicago too much to leave and hopes to bridge the Sox/Cubs divide. Which is unlikely. Dye is a DH at this point and not a particularly great one.

http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/2863 Bruce says Cubs must consider Harden. He talks about the current uncertainty of the rotation and adds: Yes, yes, yes. Offer Harden arbitration for sure. Bring him back Jim!

Not a good deal for the Sox. Instead of players who suck for the league minimum, they now have a guy who sucks for $5MM.

LD% for pitchers is relatively uncontrollable at least in the majors/high minors, correct? If that is the case (I am pretty sure it is), then these numbers are a good sign since our luck was slightly worse than average for most of the high minors pitchers. Does seem more like the low minors LD% is skill-influenced though, as Antigua is ridiculously low which makes sense against low minors hitters given his stuff and style. Anyhow, thanks for posting these interesting numbers TT.

Agree- I'm not sure how they do the Team UZRs, but my guess is that each player's rating is summed to calculate the aggregate. The sum of multiple "estimators" (such as UZR) in statistics leads to the Variances of each player's UZR also being summed, so that when the Team UZR contains the sum of all players, the Team stat has greater variance compared to its' size. Therefore it is not really very accurate- summing estimators is generally unreliable in statistics, provided I have not completely misremembered Theoretical Stats from a couple years ago. Also I may be off in how they come up with team UZR, but I can't imagine they would do all the balls fielded by a team combined into one bucket? Doesn't make sense considering the UZR methodology as I understand it. Hope that made any sense at all...if not, I apologize.

Both these players are among the worst fits possible for the Cubs to acquire right now. Speaking of players unlikely to be traded, how about we ship off Theriot to the Twins? He seems like a guy they'd overvalue, and I think we've seen his peak the past two years, although the defensive improvement according to UZR this year is promising although not necessarily something we can expect to continue into the future. Since he would have good value around the league, I think we should try to cash in before he can have a bad season, since I think the odds he improves significantly compared to 08/09 are slim. If SS is a major black hole with Blanco or cheap filler, try to pick someone up at the deadline provided the Cubs are actually sitting near the top of the standings. I don't want to rush Castro but assume he'll likely see AAA time next year at some point, and maybe even Wrigley in September...(especially if Sept. is as meaningless as this year, hope that is not the case)

Sounds like we need a 3-way trade to happen: Cubs get Hawpe Padres get Bradley + $9 million Rockies get Chris Young (rom Padres) and Sean Marshall (from Cubs) Additional tweaking (money and/or players) might be needed. I like it, but the Padres probably need more to give up their default ace. If there was a way for us to land Young and Hawpe in seperate deals, Id be all for it, say Bradley and either Marshall, Gorz, or Samardzjia for Young and a prospect package for Hawpe. I think we have in-house candidates to fill out the rotation without trading a young pitcher to get Young and then trade a whole package of prospects for Hawpe. I would rather go with my deal (1 young pitcher plus Bradley and end up with Hawpe) and go with our young pitching to battle for the 5th spot. Hawpe is TERRIBLE TERRIBLE TERRIBLE on D. No no no.

If the new guy doesn't have any money to work with, how does Hendry have any money to work with? If it effectively comes down to that the only significant moves the Cubs can make are trades until the payroll can be expanded or contracts come off the table I'd rather just keep Hendry since trades have been the one thing he's largely tolerable to really good at getting done. Once the money situation is more workable go ahead and fire him, but until then it seems largely redundant. I'll agree about his knack for trades, but some fans have been using the fear crutch since '05. "Don't get rid of him, who's better?" "Only if we get Antonetti/Depo/White" "What if we hire someone like Duquette?" I think it's more important for Ricketts to restructure from the top down; bring in a good baseball man to be president and have him pick the GM. But this offseason or next, this FO has to go. They've taken this train as far as they can. Anyone a "good baseball man" selected would most likely be mediocre at best. The GM should be held to the same standard of competence Ricketts would hold for hiring in a non-baseball business worth nearly $1B, that is to say they should be way smarter than anyone currently associated with the organization.

Agree entirely, Hendry looked like an idiot through this entire scenario. Piniella too. They looked like complete amateurs who were overmatched in the big leagues. They were the Aaron Miles and Jose Macias of coaching and GMing, respectively. Except way fatter.

Very true and yet another reason why I believe NSBB would manage the team better than the current front office. Also I wish the Cubs, if they must abide by their quest for speed, would manage to break the trend of somehow getting a speed guy who is not even a good defensive player. I expect no less than CHONE at 2nd and Pierre in CF though. This offseason is likely to be HILARIOUS in the message board world.