CubsWin

Well, the Cubs have an oft-injured Soriano, so maybe it would be worth it. :grin:

Unless the O's want Fuld in exchange for Pie, I can't see it happening. Yeah, as I stated, this is likely an exercise in futility, but the question was, if Baltimore was open to moving him, would it be a good idea to go after him. Any thoughts?

Agreed, but Fuld doesn't have the ceiling and is already 28. The point of getting Pie is that he can do what Fuld can do now (minus the OBP ability, but he's improving), and still has the possibility of becoming something like the CFer we thought he once could be.

Felix Pie. This is likely just an exercise in "what-if-ing" because, at the moment, I can't see any reason why the O's would be willing to give him up, but... The Cubs are reportedly trying to sign a right-handed OFer to platoon with Fukudome and acquiring Pie wouldn't change that. But the whole reason why they got rid of Felix in the first place was because he was out of options and the thought at the time was that the Cubs didn't have room for him on the 25-man roster. Now, apparently, they do. Pie hit well enough last season (.266/.326/.437) to be a serviceable reserve OFer that could provide superb defense in the late innings and a left-handed bat option in case any of the Cubs starting OFers get injured. At 25, he should continue to improve, as he has done every year for the last three seasons at the major league level (OPSs of .604 in '07, .637 in '08 and .763 in '09). Hendry would have to swallow his pride and likely have to give up something better than Garrett Olsen in order to get him back. But would it be worth it? I'm intrigued by the idea, probably because I never wanted to see him traded in the first place, and since I'm having a hard time taking my emotionalism out of this, I figured I would put it to you. Given a price that wouldn't be too high, the Cubs current OF needs and the prospects they have in the pipeline, is trading for Felix Pie a good idea?

It seems odd to me that you wouldn't include Marshall in that group... If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Marshall starting more games next season than Silva. And the only way I think I would be wrong is if Silva somehow turns things around and actually deserves to be starting more games in which case, the Cubs would be doing okay. I think Marshall will end up in the bullpen to provide long relief work, emergency spot starts, and be another lefty option. Silva is going to start the season in the rotation most likely given his salary... Then probably a toss up between Gorzo and Shark for the #5 spot to replace Lilly. Marshall has had more success in the bullpen and looked pretty good last year coming out and I think he stays there. I get that you think Marshall will be in the pen, what I don't get is why you think that. You just laid out all the numbers. Do you think the guys in the Cubs front office aren't aware of the same numbers you are? Marshall has done a better job starting than all of those guys. Most of Marshall's time in the pen was before the Cubs acquired two more left-handed pitchers, Grabow and Gorzelanny. They are now freed up to consider Marshall for the rotation. They will likely go with whoever is pitching the best coming out of Spring Training and there is no reason why the Cubs wouldn't include Marshall in that competition considering the numbers you just went over. So it appears the stats and the logic of the situation point to Marshall having just as good of a chance of being that 5th starter than any, maybe a better chance. And when you look at the numbers, it is likely that Marshall (or if someone is pitching better than Marshall is then that guy) will put up similar production to what Harden did last season. Which means that letting Harden go and not getting Sheets to replace him will likely not spell the end of the Cubs post-season chances before the season even starts.

That's awesome.

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing. Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season On the flipside, Harden had a 5.47 ERA with a 1.541 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9 in the first half (seven more innings too). Most any of our starters can better those numbers significantly. Not the guys who are the top candidates to replace him. Carlos Silva career as a starter: 52-63, 4.90 ERA, 159 GS, 1.410 WHIP, 3.6 K/9 Jeff Samardzija career as starter MLB (sample size): 0-2, 10.80 ERA, 2 GS, 1.680 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 Jeff Samardzija overall MLB pitching stats (62 IP, 46 G): 2-3, 5.20 ERA, 1.604 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 Jeff Samardzija MILB career stats (71 of 77 games as a starter): 20-25, 4.28 ERA, 71 GS, 1.447 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 Tom Gorzelanny career as starter: 26-27, 4.78 ERA, 72 GS, 1.500 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 Silva and Gorzo yearly logs as starters: Silva (2009): 1-3, 8.48 ERA, 6 GS, 28.2 IP, 1.640 WHIP, 3.1 K/9 Silva (2008): 4-15, 6.46 ERA, 28 GS, 153 IP, 1.598 WHIP, 4.1 K/9 Silva (2007): 13-14, 4.19 ERA, 33 GS, 202 IP, 1.312 WHIP, 4 K/9 Silva (2006): 11-15, 6.13 ERA, 31 GS, 173.1 IP, 1.546 WHIP, 3.4 K/9 Silva (2005): 9-8, 3.44 ERA, 27 GS, 188.1 IP, 1.173 WHIP, 3.4 K/9 Silva (2004): 14-8, 4.21 ERA, 33 GS, 203 IP, 1.429 WHIP, 3.4 K/9 Gorzelanny (2009): 4-2, 5.40 ERA, 7 GS, 31.2 IP, 1.421 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 Gorzelanny (2008): 6-9, 6.66 ERA, 21 GS, 105.1 IP, 1.804 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 Gorzelanny (2007): 14-10, 3.88 ERA, 32 GS, 201.2 IP, 1.398 WHIP, 6 K/9 Gorzelanny (2006): 2-5, 3.79 ERA, 11 GS, 61.2 IP, 1.315 WHIP, 5.8 K/9 It seems odd to me that you wouldn't include Marshall in that group... If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Marshall starting more games next season than Silva. And the only way I think I would be wrong is if Silva somehow turns things around and actually deserves to be starting more games in which case, the Cubs would be doing okay.

The fact is they are starting the season without Lilly and he's coming off surgery. You prepare for the season that way and go from there. I don't give a crap about going into the season thinking, "hey if all these things workout we'll be alright". Of course if everything works out this team will be fine. But that's not how reality works. They are going into the season in a position of weakness, only 2 dependable starting pitchers, and that is before accounting for the inevitable speed bump. As of now they are last year's team, minus Harden and Bradley, plus Byrd and Silva. I don't see how that is even remotely an improvement. And last year's team was not an improvement from the 2008 team. (minus Wood, DeRosa and Edmonds, plus Gregg, Bradley and Miles). They need to replace Harden just to stay even with last year's rotation. I don't see why a $140m payroll team has to go into a season hoping a bunch of stuff will work out so they can have a chance. This team should be in a position where a bunch of things would have to go wrong to think they don't have a chance, and that's not the case. 1. I don't believe everything will turn out okay. I don't sit back and expect Soriano will be a 40-40 guy again, or that Soto will put up his ROY numbers again. Only that they are more likely to improve from last year than to not and that you don't seem to factor that in. The previous post was simply as example of a scenario that was more likely to happen than yours. 2. I also don't believe that Wells will tank and Lilly's recovery will last most of the season or that his effectiveness will be greatly lessened because of his recent surgery. I think it's possible, but not the most likely outcome. 3. I don't believe that they can sit back and expect to win 90 games, just that Samardzija doing well is not "a key" to the Cubs success this year. 4. The Cubs are in this position because Hendry made some pretty stupid signings and the Cubs endured a lot of injuries and bad performances from key players last season. 5. The "position" they were in prior to last year (winning the division and making the playoffs) is about what I would expect from a $130-140 million payroll team. About. And that's on Hendry. 6. Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation. 7. I agree with you. I think it is smart for a GM to be prepared for things not working out perfectly. But, in reality (unless you're the Yankees), resources are finite. So at some point, especially when your GM is imperfect and has made some really dumb signings, you're going to come down to making a tough decision about whether to spend the money on Ben Sheets or not. To that end, in reality, you eventually have to consider what is likely to happen because that's what is going to determine where to spend your owner's money. And I just don't see how it is likely for the Cubs success to come down to the ability of Jeff Samardzija to be a successful 5th starter.

I hope so as well, unfortunately hope is all we got. It's tough enough to a get a good performing prospect to translate into good performance in the majors, but it's really tough to turn an underperformer into a good one, and I don't like the idea of hoping for that to be a key for your season. Why would hoping for Samardzija to be a good 5th starter be "a key" for the Cubs season? It's tough to win with an imcompetent 5th starter, especially when you don't have any top notch aces to carry the rotation. The goal is 90+ wins and securing the division, not scraping by and hoping to be in the race if others struggle the same. It would be a key spot because the Cubs only have 2 relatively dependable rotation spots filled going into the season, so they are going to need guys to step up and perform in the rotation. I agree that in the scenario you described, having a dependable 5th starter would be "a key" to having a successful season. But I find the scenario you describe rather pessimistic. What if all those things don't go wrong? What if the Cubs aren't suddenly left with only 2 dependable starters, but have 4 after Lilly comes back in May? What if Zambrano bounces back? He is 28. What if he pitches 200+ innings again this season? That would be an improvement over last season. What if Lilly is only out a month as expected. There have been no reports of him hitting any setbacks of yet. The Cubs play 24 games in April. That's five starts Lilly will be missing. Let's say the Cubs go 1-4 in those five games, how big of a hole could that possibly create? Let's say Wells comes back a bit but doesn't completely tank and instead of an ERA of 3.05, he puts up a 3.75 or a 4.00. For a 4th starter, that's still well above league average. And what if the Cubs 5th starter isn't "incompetent"? Now that the Cubs have Grabow and Gorz in the pen, perhaps they will feel more comfortable putting Marshall in the rotation where he has put up a 4.37 ERA over the last three seasons. That's far from incompetent in my book. When you add in Byrd likely performing better than Bradley did, and Soriano, Soto and Ramirez likely performing better and being healthier than last season, is it really necessary for Jeff Samardzija to perform well in order for the Cubs to win 90 games?

I hope so as well, unfortunately hope is all we got. It's tough enough to a get a good performing prospect to translate into good performance in the majors, but it's really tough to turn an underperformer into a good one, and I don't like the idea of hoping for that to be a key for your season. Why would hoping for Samardzija to be a good 5th starter be "a key" for the Cubs season?

Five open roster spots, actually, since Lilly will be unavailable to start the season. Add one extra pitcher to your calculation, probably one from our stable of kid arms. Right you are. I had forgotten about that. Of course, it could be that both pitchers come from inside the organization, especially if the Cubs are unable to afford Ben Sheets.

When you add non-arbitration eligible players like Soto and Wells to that list and the total is close to $135 million with 4 open roster spots likely to be used for one more pitcher and 3 bench players (one infielder and two outfielders). The Cubs have been rumored to be interested in Xavier Nady and Ben Sheets, two guys I would certainly be interested in them signing for the right price. But if the Ricketts payroll cutoff is solidly at $140 million, they are likely out of the running for Sheets. Anyone hear anything at the Cubs Convention about their ceiling on payroll for 2010?

Okay, if we split the differences in the above offers, (Theriot gets 3 mill, Marmol gets 2.125 mill and Marshall gets a mill), with those 8 players added in, it looks like this (with some questions remaining about exactly what Samardzjia and Silva are making in 2010): Alfonso Soriano - $19,000,000 Carlos Zambrano - $18,875,000 Aramis Ramirez - $16,750,000 Kosuke Fukudome - $14,000,000 Ryan Demptster - $13,500,000 Derrek Lee - $13,000,000 Ted Lilly - $13,000,000 Carlos Silva - $11,500,000 (according to SeattleTimes.com) John Grabow - $3,750,000 Marlon Byrd - $3,000,000 Ryan Theriot - $3,000,000 (estimated) Carlos Marmol - $2,125,000 (estimated) Sean Marshall - $1,000,000 (estimated) Jeff Samardzija - $1,000,000 (according to Cot's) Mike Fontenot - $1,000,000 Jeff Baker - $975,000 Angel Guzman - $825,000 Tom Gorzelanny - $800,000 Koyie Hill - $700,000 Total - $137,800,000 Plus Luis Vizcaino's $500,000 buyout for 2010 and $1,000,000 for Aaron Miles but minus the 5.5 million from the Mariners in the Bradley trade (with 3.5 still to be applied in 2011). Total - $133,800,000

I'm always suspicious when a source isn't specific as to which team a player is close to signing with. It increases the leverage of the player to leak the names of the teams with which they're negotiating. What reason would Rich Hill's agent have to withhold the team's name? The only one I can think of is to create the perception that other teams are interested (when there really aren't any) and get the Orioles to up/make an offer. But maybe the source was a league source and not from Hill's agent. Who knows? In any case, I wish Rich the best unless he signs with the Cardinals in which case I hope he has a dominant spring causing their fans to get all excited and then he gets into a locker room brawl with Chris Carpenter in which they both break their throwing hands.

it was 10-12 each year, not overall OMG, you're right. I had read in another thread on this board that it was 10-12 over 2 years, but when I googled it, the only thing I could find was that he is seeking that amount per season. That's ridiculous.

[expletive] John Grabow. If we had the money to spend, I wouldn't guarantee $10 million a year for Sheets anway. I think he wanted 10-12mil over 2 years, which Id defintiely do. Theres no way in hell hed get 10mil/year after sitting out 2009. That is correct. That was over 2 years. The sad news is that Cubs officials are saying that they can't afford it. That means their payroll situation is tighter than I thought.

Regardless of whether the Cubs sign someone like Kiko Calero, how important do you guys think it would be to improve what they currently have at 2B? Baker did great, but with his history being what it is and the small sample size in which he succeeded last season, can he really be counted on in a platoon with Fontenot? How much would signing Orlando Hudson bring the Cubs chances of going deep into the playoffs?

That's how I feel, too. I don't see a need to bring in another reliever, but, obviously, if there's an opportunity to improve the team by getting someone who's been very effective of late for a 1 year deal and not too much money, I wouldn't want the Cubs to pass that up. Any opportunity to help the team without handcuffing it further is always a good idea.

Listening to all the talk on MLB radio and other sports talk shows, most of the analysts, if not all, think that the Cubs should/will be going after one more veteran reliever, and their pursuit of Matt Capps supports this claim. The feelings towards paying for veteran relievers on this board vary, but are largely against spending limited funds on those guys. The current make up of the Cubs bullpen is: Marmol Grabow Guzman Marshall Samardzjia Gorzelanny Caridad The only pitcher on that list that can't be called a major league veteran is Caridad. If the Shark struggles again, he won't be on the team, but he's no longer a rookie. Now if they don't acquire another starter, like Ben Sheets, one of those guys will move into the rotation. But even if that happens, Hendry still has several other prospects waiting in the wings like Justin Berg, John Gaub, Jeff Stevens and Blake Parker who at the least deserve a shot. Does anyone on this site think that the Cubs should devote any of their remaining money on another veteran reliever? Clearly the answer in my mind is "no". What I don't understand is why all these so-called baseball insiders on the radio/TV are saying that they should? Maybe they're saying that they "will" (because of Hendry's proclivity for such signings) and I'm hearing it as a recommendation instead of a prediction. The prediction I can understand. The recommendation, not so much. Regardless of whether the Cubs sign someone like Kiko Calero, how important do you guys think it would be to improve what they currently have at 2B? Baker did great, but with his history being what it is and the small sample size in which he succeeded last season, can he really be counted on in a platoon with Fontenot? How much would signing Orlando Hudson bring the Cubs chances of going deep into the playoffs?

The rotation currently stands at Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells and whoever. Adding Sheets to that mix with pitchers like Marshall and Gorzelanny able to step in for him in case of injury would be great, assuming he can still pitch effectively which is yet to be seen. My question is, since it is unlikely the Cubs would be able to afford both Sheets and Orlando Hudson, which would provide the biggest difference to the Cubs chances of getting to a World Series? I don't know how to answer that question. I'm guessing somebody out there does...

Any way of telling how, if at all, that changes the numbers we've been going on in this thread? I think it knocks a million bucks each off of the following six players: Soriano, Zambrano, Ramirez, Fukudome, Dempster, and Lilly. Well, if that's the case, then the O-Dog becomes a blip on the Cubs free-agent radar screen.

Any way of telling how, if at all, that changes the numbers we've been going on in this thread?

I believe that link is wrong and Samardzija will be paid $2.5 for this coming season. Arizona Phil has allotted $10 total for the eight arb eligibles in his payroll analysis. And Soto will probably get between $0.75 and $1.0. Great. Thanks, Jeff. So call it 11 million including Soto. Add that to the 123.375 mill and the Cubs are at 134.375 mill. If Cot's is wrong and the Shark is making 2-2.5 mill, then the total becomes 135.875 mill. Rounding to 136, that leaves 4 million for the remaining 5 players. So it's safe to assume that ownership is going to have to be willing to go over 140 million if the Cubs are going to be able to make a serious play for Orlando Hudson.

I'm not sure what the signing bonuses of Grabow and Byrd are, if any, but here is what we have so far to the best of my ability... Alfonso Soriano - $19,000,000 Carlos Zambrano - $18,875,000 Aramis Ramirez - $16,750,000 Kosuke Fukudome - $14,000,000 Ryan Demptster - $13,500,000 Derrek Lee - $13,000,000 Ted Lilly - $13,000,000 Carlos Silva - $11,500,000 (according to SeattleTimes.com) John Grabow - $3,750,000 Marlon Byrd - $3,000,000 Jeff Samardzija - $1,000,000 (according to Cot's) Subtotal - $127,375,000 Then as rob accurately pointed out, there's Luis Vizcaino's $500,000 buyout for 2010 and $1,000,000 for Aaron Miles. But the Cubs received 9 million from the Mariners in the Bradley trade, 5.5 million of which is applied to 2010. Total - $123,375,000 That's for 11 players. If reports are true that the Ricketts family has set the payroll at $140 million, that leaves around 16 million for 14 players including Carlos Marmol, Geovany Soto, Sean Marshall, Ryan Theriot, Tom Gorzellany, Jeff Baker, Angel Guzman, Mike Fontenot and Koyie Hill. Does anyone have solid estimates on what those nine are likely to make? And is there any way possible that the Cubs would have enough left over to entice Orlando Hudson to sign without going over $140 million?

Scouting the Cubs Korean Contingent Pretty standard write up. Doesn't seem like there's anything we didn't already know. Unless you count that Rhee is a "tall, projectable lefty". That would be news...if it were true. Rhee bats from the left side, but throws righty. And I wouldn't call 6'2" tall for a pitcher. It's somewhat tall for a Korean, but...