CubsWin

I have Chris Carpenter behind Archer, McNutt and Jackson primarily because of his injury history. Multiple surgeries and he even missed most of April with shoulder problems. With a cleaner bill of health, he'd probably still behind Archer and McNutt. His stuff is as good as theirs but he doesn't have their command or consistency. Thanks for your response. Is there any chance that he can become more consistent? (Beyond sure anything can happen.) He walks too many, but he does seem to keep the ball in the park. Staying healthy should help with that. Not taking large chunks of time off every now and then to heal up from something allows players not to have to relearn and retune their delivery. You can become more consistent in being able to repeat your delivery that way. Whether the delivery you are able to repeat produces good enough control to succeed is a matter for the pitcher and his coaches. But staying healthy will definitely help maximize his potential.

It also presupposes that he hits well enough to be worthy of a job. Bottom line is Castro is the SS for the foreseeable future, and they are a long way off from needing to think about moving him. Indeed, this discussion is a wee bit premature.

This made me very happy. We all knew Lee is thought of as an elite defensive SS, but I didn't know about McNutt's breaking ball. I heard about his command of a mid-90s fastball and I figured that's enough to dominate at the lower levels. But now that I learn of an elite secondary breaking pitch, he's a lot more likely to perform well in AA, AAA and the bigs.

If it's clear that Lee is the better defensive SS and Castro's offense wouldn't be adversely affected by a move to 2B, then having Lee play SS would clearly be the best move for the team. If Lee struggles offensively after being called up, there's no reason why they couldn't just move Castro back to SS and send Lee to AAA. Changing positions does carry with it a heightened injury risk. So if you're gonna make a move, you only want to make it once. There is no reason to move castro off short, move him back when Lee struggles, move him off again when Lee gets another shot, and so on and so forth until we know whether Lee will be a ML caliber hitter. I guess I can buy some of what you are saying, but there can't be that much injury risk of having Castro go from short to second and back to short. I agree with Goony. The risk of injury from moving to 2B and back to SS can't be so great as to justify playing players at positions where their defensive skills aren't being used to maximize the team's chances of winning. All of this presupposes that Lee's defense at SS is clearly better than Castro's. From the scouting reports I've heard about, right now, it is. Lee is supposed to be an elite defensive SS. I'm not saying he's going to be Ozzie Smith, but could you imagine not playing the light hitting Wizard of Oz at any other position than SS?

If it's clear that Lee is the better defensive SS and Castro's offense wouldn't be adversely affected by a move to 2B, then having Lee play SS would clearly be the best move for the team. If Lee struggles offensively after being called up, there's no reason why they couldn't just move Castro back to SS and send Lee to AAA.

If Guyer succeeds next year during spring training or AAA, it would be interesting to see what Colvin could bring in a trade as a 25 year old OFer with a decent rookie campaign.

Rhee's been up and down, but Jung must have crossed the streams with Egon or something because that was total protonic reversal right there. In his previous four outings he pitched 14.2 IP allowing 10 H, 4 ER with 27 Ks and 2 BB. Tonight he pitched 1.1 IP allowing 3 H, 5 ER with 6 BB and only 1 K. Jekyll meet Hyde.

Damn, CR, you made the exact same two posts I was going to make after looking at the boxscores tonight. Antigua and Ebinger. But since we're parsing the numbers, Ebinger's last 4 games: 16.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 23 Ks, 0 BB. He's 22, so success in the NWL isn't a surprise, but I think this qualifies as more than just success...

I have interest in all 4 of those guys. I know I'm probably swimming upstream admitting having hope for Samardzija on this site, but he's been pretty darn effective as a starter this season despite still struggling with his control. If he can improve his control over time, he may still be something given how late he came to focus on pitching.

The more I look at his season, his minor league career as a whole and the fact that he's only one year over age for his level and isn't really repeating it (189 ABs at AA last season), Brandon Guyer deserves consideration for top 15 status, if not higher... .322/.376/.548 in 283 ABs, with 27 doubles, 5 triples and 9 HRs with 21 stolen bases in 22 attempts. He started off hot in April hitting .283/.427/.467 and a perfect 8 for 8 on the base paths. Then he got injured (I assume) in May only having 14 ABs, struggled a bit in June after coming back and has been on fire ever since going .415/.437/.622 in 82 ABs in July and .419/.422/.722 in 31 August at bats with a perfect 9 for 9 in stolen bases during those two months. In his first full season after being a 5th round college draftee in '07, Brandon hit .269/.331/.498 at Peoria. Not great, but decent power with 27 doubles, 3 triples and 14 HRs for a 22 year old. The next season he destroys in the FSL, going .347/.405/.453 in 265 ABs and steals 23 bases in 25 attempts. He struggles mightily in his time at AA bringing his season numbers way down, but he still manages to hit .282 on the year. And this year, he is tearing up AA as previously noted, on track for one level per year starting as a 22 year old in Low A as a college draftee. If Guyer makes the team as a reserve OFer next season or tears up AAA and is a mid-season call-up, I've got no problem feeling good about a 25-year-old rookie OFer. Brennan Boesch is a 25-year-old rookie OFer for the Tigers. So is Jon Jay for Cardinals. Chris Johnson is tearing it up for Houston as a 25-year-old rookie 3B. Neil Walker turns 25 in a month. None of those guys are world beaters, but they're all valuable pieces. Can Brandon Guyer be that kind of player for the Cubs?

Not if you value consistency. He's had two great starts in a row. Prior to that, two pretty bad ones and one where he didn't allow any runs in 4 innings but also walked 4. From all the scouting reports, he's got the stuff, but his command has always been a little shaky (3.6 walks per 9 last year, a little higher this year) and for some reason, he's gotten hit more this season. Could just be a mix of normal variance and moving up from A+ to AA, but hitters hit .210 against him last season and have hit .266 so far this season. Carpenter has followed the normal model of a player at a new level. He had a rough April and May, turned it around since then. For me personally, I would like to see two more starts of a similar quality as the last two before promoting him to AAA. I have no idea what the Cubs need to see.

I base this on age, consistency and excellence of production and the player's ceiling. My weakness is scouting report info. Don't have nearly enough of it... 1. Brett Jackson 2. Trey McNutt 3. Chris Archer 4. Josh Vitters 5. Hak Ju-Lee 6. Jay Jackson 7. Junior Lake This is where it gets kind of fuzzy for me... 8. Casey Coleman 9. Chris Rusin 10. Rafael Dolis I don't know enough about Hayden Simpson or Reggie Golden and other draftees or emerging prospects like Su-Min Jung or Jae-Hoon Ha to know how they compare with guys like Chris Carpenter, Dae-Eun Rhee, Brett Wallach, and Robinson Chirinos. If I knew more about Simpson, I might easily rank him 8th. Jung is red hot right now, but I don't have a scouting report on his stuff. Russ Canzler's not that old for his level and he's put together quite a season (.950 OPS at AA), how good is he?

Hey, Wang! What's with the pictures? It's a parking lot. [/Rodney Dangerfield impersonation}

Feel free to blame the Cubs for having his overall numbers look bad this season by promoting him so quickly, surely they are to blame. But they're not in the business of making sure he winds up with a pretty stat line. They are in the business of preparing him for success in the majors as quickly as possible and his seemingly early promotion to Tennessee is the best way to make that happen. Vitters needs to learn better discretion at the plate. The longer he sees A+ level pitching, the longer it will be before he is challenged to layoff the more deceiving AA pitches. I think the Cubs are very confident in his abilities and don't need to see him put up great numbers every year to know that he'll be okay. They also believe in Vitters confidence in himself. They think Vitters doesn't need to see himself succeed in order to believe that he'll make it one day. Is it an aggressive plan they are following? Yes. But it is one they only follow with players they feel can take it and will benefit from it. The player's got to be special though. It worked with Castro. We'll see if Vitters is that kind of player as well It's not about a pretty stat line, but that's what makes a good season. I don't think you think he mastered A ball, so I won't have that argument. As for the parts I bolded, well, they just makes no sense at all. As of now the Cubs have a guy who stunk up AA and is falling like a stone in terms of his value. I think it makes perfect sense to challenge a hitter who is clearly very talented at making contact with all sorts of pitches and has had success hitting pitches safely that are not in the strike zone by having him learn to deal with the more deceptive pitches at AA. Clearly that doesn't make sense if you think the player might not ever be good enough to get above A+. Someone like Kyler Burke, for example, I would need to see prove himself at every level before promoting him. I think Vitters is different. The part that I disagree with in your line of thinking is that a pretty stat line makes for a good season. At the major league level, maybe, but when your goal is to get better at the things you're not good at as quickly as possible, a pretty stat line at the end of the year can have little to do with you reaching your goal. Again, this type of approach to development will usually be reserved for those players that have the talent, confidence/poise and mental toughness to handle it.

Feel free to blame the Cubs for having his overall numbers look bad this season by promoting him so quickly, surely they are to blame. But they're not in the business of making sure he winds up with a pretty stat line. They are in the business of preparing him for success in the majors as quickly as possible and his seemingly early promotion to Tennessee is the best way to make that happen. Vitters needs to learn better discretion at the plate. The longer he sees A+ level pitching, the longer it will be before he is challenged to layoff the more deceiving AA pitches. I think the Cubs are very confident in his abilities and don't need to see him put up great numbers every year to know that he'll be okay. They also believe in Vitters confidence in himself. They think Vitters doesn't need to see himself succeed in order to believe that he'll make it one day. Is it an aggressive plan they are following? Yes. But it is one they only follow with players they feel can take it and will benefit from it. The player's got to be special though. It worked with Castro. We'll see if Vitters is that kind of player as well

At first I read the last page of this thread and thought to myself, "so this is what happens to the Wow Castro thread when he goes 0-for-4". But then I realized that all those posts happened before he went 0-for-4 and I thought to myself, "nope, we really are this weird". Even this post is weird... Castro's awesome. There...how's that?

Nice.

Not a bad pitching night. Especially interested to see how Archer and Jung do. Samardzija continues to perform well as a starter, though his walks have got to come down. So far tonight for the Shark, 1 hit, 2 walks, 3 Ks, and no runs through 5. 7-1 groundout/flyout ratio, and only 65 pitches thru 5 innings, 38 of them strikes. Not a dominant night for Archer so far. He's given up 2 (1 earned) thru 4, striking out 4 and walking 2. He's got 4 groundouts to 2 flyouts and 35 of his 58 pitches have been for strikes. Cabrera got touched for 10 hits in 6 innings tonight. Jung continues to rock. Thru 4, he has allowed 2 hits, 1 walk while striking out 6. In his two previous games, he has pitched 7.2 innings allowing 3 earned on 5 hits, striking out 15 and walking none. Add tonight's game so far and you've got 11.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 22 Ks. That's a nice little run.

Benevolent or not, it makes a lot of sense. If I were charged with improving his eye and selectivity at the plate, I'd definitely want him in at least AA.

Fixed.Fixed again. Ricketts has already said Hendry will be with the Cubs next season, but I was hoping, so...

If the Cubs are going to compete with the best next season, they need to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, at least one top of the line starter, get lucky filling out their bullpen with young arms, have Tyler Colvin learn plate discipline against major league pitchers, have Aramis return to form and not opt out of his contract, have Starlin Castro keep performing at his current level, somehow get someone to take Fukudome and Zambrano off their hands (or somehow turn Z around performance wise and emotionally), oh, and stay healthy. Tall order. What will they look like? I agree with those who say that it will look like Soriano, Byrd and Colvin in the outfield, Ramirez, Castro and DeWitt third to second and Soto behind the plate. My wish is to trade for Gonzalez with a package of Vitters, pitching maybe Wells like another poster said (anyone but Archer, McNutt and Simpson) and whoever else they want not named Brett Jackson or Hak-Ju Lee. I just don't think that San Diego will go for it. Short of that, I'm hoping to sign Adam Dunn to play first. It's a pipe dream, but it would be best for the Cubs if it were a front loaded 2 or 3 year contract. That way if the Cubs are somehow able to sign Gonzalez, Dunn's contract would make him tradable. He's 30 though. This is his last chance to get a 4 or 5 year deal. I don't see that happening. Pitching? Zambrano's a mess. I guess they should just eat the salary and cut him loose, but, gah, what a waste. What's harder, to get a decent return in a trade for Carlos Zambrano right now or to whip him back into some semblance of his former self? The Cubs certainly have the depth to let him go. Dempster, Silva, Gorzelanny, Wells still remain. The competition for the 5th spot would be between Diamond, Jackson, Cashner, Samardzija and Coleman. The glaring problem is the lack of one or two top of the line starters. The closer is set for years to come assuming they pay Marmol well enough to keep him. The rest of the pen is anybody's guess. Marshall has been awesome as a reliever, but he could easily be a candidate for the rotation along with Cashner. I doubt the Cubs let him do that though despite his wishes in the matter. Will Grabow be back to his average self? Will the losers of the 5th starter competition fill out the rest of the pen? They could. Ugh, this is depressing. Here's hoping ownership agrees to eat a bunch of salary and Hendry can package Zambrano, Fukudome, Vitters, and others for Gonzalez and the Cubs can start over. :roll:

Do you really think it was a secret around MLB that the Cubs would like to trade him if possible? Like I said, its is far from an ideal situation, but I don't think a Twitter post blew the secret that Cubs might want to move him. It's not the twitter post that informed the league, it's the Cubs informing the league that led to the twitter post. This team can't keep going into offseasons intent on trading away assets. It's horrible business. Let's think about this for a second because this comes up quite often on this board. Whatever the source of this story is, the leak doesn't impact what the Cubs would be able to get for Z (or Bradley or Sosa for that matter) one bit. If a team wants to trade a player, then they are going to have to initiate talks with another team at some point. Mentioning that player's name during that meeting or phone call will have the exact same effect that this media report had. The players abilities, deficiencies, contract and recent performance history are going to have much more of an impact on what that GM is willing to give in return than the knowledge that a team is willing to trade a player.

I believe the reports on his defense were similar to what they were before - passable at 3rd, but not good. Thanks. Couldn't agree more. Said pretty much exactly that a few posts up. The Cubs need to let him sit at AA for a full season, unless of course, he blows it up early.

I know. Posey, Strasburg, Garcia and Heyward would all be shoe-ins any other year. It's like the Marino QB draft class.

Looking thru the Dodgers minor leaguers makes me feel a lot better about the Cubs system.