cubsfan26

I was talking about Hendry since Piniella took over, the last two years. There's plenty of other good moves Hendry made between 03-05 that I didn't mention as well. The Pierre trade is the only trade I really feel was poor, and some of the other stuff you listed is very debateable. Soriano is a 17m per year player in this market, we don't know if we will age good or bad yet. Jones made 5.3m per year, and we got two solid years from him and dumped him before he lost it. I don't see how it's a bad move to sign a guy, but get rid of him before he's bad. Sometimes you gotta sign a guy for more years then you want to get him to come to your team, and if you got the most use out of him, then get rid of him before he goes into the tank thats still a good outcome. Same thing goes with Marquis, he's gone 23-18 with a 4.43 in 61 starts(with a good chunk of innings) the last two years, and been a solid 4-5 starter for us. He's been worth the contract we paid him for the last two years. Were now dumping him because we no longer have use for a pitcher like him due to better cheaper options on the roster. With all the free agent pitchers signings over the last two years, I'm sure Marquis deal would be on the postive outcome list so far. At the time we signed Marquis we needed a pitcher who could eat up innings and who was durable, and Marquis was as good as we could have asked for. Fukudome looks like he could be a bust right now, but lets see how he does next season before we draw a outcome there. As for the Kendall/Blevins trade, keep in mind we got Ryan Flaherty due to trading for Kendall as well. The Steve Trachsel deal was crap for crap, we gave up two crappy guys to see if Trachsel can give us 4-5 solid starts. It didn't work out, but it didn't really hurt us either when you look at the crap we gave up. If having a high payroll means making the playoffs two years in a row, we would have seen alot of other teams being alot better then they were. I hate when people say well Hendry is doing good because he's had money to spend. People can go look at teams with simliar or higher payrolls then us, and only one of those teams won more games then us last year. The Cubs aren't the only ones spending money, their just doing it more wisely then others, and deserve some credit for that. Thats true, but he also had MacPhail there holding him back. Having Lee, Prior and Wood hurt had alot to do with our struggles as well. But to me, It's kinda hard to believe, that the same GM we have today, signed guys like Jacque Jones, Neifi and trading for Pierre. I really believe Hendry has improved alot as a GM over the last few seasons(stopped being old school and realize OBP is important), or he has at least alot better scouts working for him. Because the guy has made plenty of good moves the last two years, that very few expected to work out.

Other then Fukudome(who I still feel we haven't seen the best of him yet) what bad moves have their really been? We could even add making Wood the closer last year to that list of good moves as well, when many were saying he couldn't stay healthy enough to be the closer. In the last two years Hendry has made very few bad moves, and when he did it was often crap for crap. When a GM makes plenty of good moves, very few bad moves, and takes the team from the worse in the NL to the best in the NL in two years, he's doing a good job and deserves the benefit of the doubt on somewhat questionable moves until proven otherwise. Since many of his questionable moves over the last two years have worked out very well for us.

He signed Neifi in 2004-2005, Macias in 2004 and Estes was brought in to be the 5th starter at 1y. Estes sucked that year but it can't really go down as a horrible move. Alfonseca also included Matt Clement and that deal was made by Andy MacPhail. Neifi was signed to please his manager at the time, who thought he couldn't have enough middle infielders. Hendry isn't infalliable and obviously the Fukudome signing looks scary right now, but when you look at the moves he made the last two years, and how much the team has improved he deserves the benefit of the doubt. A year ago people were saying Hendry a idiot he moved Dempster into the rotation he's gonna get killed. They also were saying how can they keep Theriot at SS? He most likely overachieved in 2007 due to a big July, and will be even worse in 08. Then in May, people were saying Jim Edmonds, he sucks, he's done, Hendry is a idiot just play Pie. Then after the Rich Harden trade, and the good moves in 06-07. I'm willing to give Hendry the benefit of the doubt with Gregg, Bradley and using Fontenot as the primary 2b. The funny thing is Hendry got bashed for signing DeRosa in the first place, now two years later the same guy who made the good move in the first place is getting bashed for trading the guy. I think that should be a sign that we should just wait and see what happens, before we flip out. With the way things have working out for Hendry over the last two years, odds are things moves will work out better then people think.

Miles will be getting most of his starts as a RH in platoon with Fontenot. The rest of the time he will just be playing off the bench.

Fontenot is a LH though, and now will get to play everyday which will help against LH pitching. Miles is a fine hitter against LH pitching, yes he has very little power. But he can hit for average and get on base well against lefties. IMO every hitter doesn't have to have good power, hitting for average and talking walks also help make the line-up go, if you have other power hitters around them.

I don't think anybody expects Dempster to pitch the way he did last year again. I think the Cubs would be happy with a 3.50-4 type era season from him and the Cubs paid him like a number 3 starter. If Dempster is better then that he's gonna be a huge bargin, but he also could be a bust if he's a 4.50s era type pitcher. Personally Dempster showed me enough last year for me to believe it's not a fluke. It's not like the same Ryan Dempster from 2002 was on the mound pitching, or he got lucky. The guy got himself in great shape, he changed his delivery, used different pitches, and other stuff. I also believe he's alot smarter as a pitcher, then he was when he was 21-25 and trying to get hitters out. So I believe this will end up being a good contract at least 2 or 3 years of the deal.

He's replaced guys with slight downgrades at some postions, to improve at other postions. IMO Bradley is a nice upgrade compared to what we had in the outfield, and when he's in the line-up it will be lethal. He did downgrade at 2b a little and in the bullpen a little(could be though) but the rotation will be about the same. So right now we upgraded one spot, and slighty downgraded two spots. So the team is a little worse, but not much worse then when the season ended. Upgrading the rotation, will put us at a overall good offseason and make us better. Plus I think having more LH hitters in the line-up will help more then people think. This might sound dumb but I think we could win less games but be in a better postion to win in the playoffs. I do think the playoffs are a crapshoot, and do think this team choked. But I think that was just part of the reason. When the exact samething happen in 08 that happen in 07, with a very simliar line-up. There's a problem, and if u look at the numbers of how this team has hit in the postseason against RH pitching. I really do think getting more LH is a important thing. I know some will disagree, but I did research and almost every World Series winning team since the wild card has had good or productive LH bats in their line-up. Again lets wait and see how the roster looks on opening day and what Hendry does with this roster throught out the season.

I agree, but the key word is yet. Adding Bradley will help when you consider there losing those guys. If we add another good pitcher(doesn't have to just be Peavy), I think we will be better. But if we don't make anymore moves I think were just a little worse, and still a good team. Adding Peavy or another good pitcher then I'd we would be just as good as last year if not better. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens the rest of the offseason.

Why do you think he's doing it for the heck of it? How do you know he doesn't think Fontenot is ready to play at least against RH pitching? It's not like what he's done in the minors and off the bench the last two years doesn't show that. Hendry probably wanted to start Fontenot at 2b, and decided he would rather have Bradley over DeRosa. Stuff like this only raises questions with the fans, but plenty of times last season the fans questioned him and he was right. Probably the only time they didn't was when they signed Fukudome, and as of right now thats really is only major mistake. His job is to make the team better, he believes Fontenot/Miles can do what DeRosa was gonna do and Bradley will give them a quality bat in RF. I will agree with you that right now this team isn't better then the one that finshed the season. But I think their only a little worse, and still a 90 plus win team. Of course getting Peavy, Sheets or Lowe would put them past last year IMO. I still think were not done, and once we get a little payroll boost from the new owner we will add another pitcher.

I recall some people saying that about Theriot a year ago, and they didn't believe he could improve and Hendry did. Lets not forget the team that starts the season on opening day isn't the final team. I recall a year ago some people being concerned about Pie in CF Theirot at SS, and if Soto would be as good. Many were concerned about potentially having 3 easy outs in the line-up. Well Theriot/Soto were better then anyone expected, and after Pie struggled, they picked up Edmonds to replace him and it ended up being a great move. If Fontenot does struggle, or Fukudome still isn't hitting or something else happens. We can always find replacements for players at those postions in trades, minors or off waivers, just like we did a year ago. At some point you gotta go with your young players, especially when their hitting at the big league level.

What team has good depth when three starters go out? Gaudin was never gonna start for us last year anyways because he wasn't stretched out enough to start. So last year in say August or September Samardzija or Hart would have started in that situation as well. If the Cubs lose 2-3 starters for a long period of time it won't matter if Marquis was on the roster or not. Good depth saves you from injuries, but only to a point. This team still has very good depth, just not as much as they did to end the season, and maybe some of the guys they will lose don't have the track records as others. But that doesn't mean these guys can't do the job, or better. How do we know Gaudin and Samardzija would be worse then Marquis and Gallagher? We don't know how Samardzija might improve or how he would do starting a few games. Gaudin as I pointed out pitched just like Marquis in 2007. Personally I think your freaking out about losing depth a bit. If you don't have a 200m payroll you need to cut back in spots to get better. When you have guys like Marshall and Gaudin you don't need to have a pitcher like Marquis making the money he does on the roster, when those guys can probably do what he does. When you have a young like Fontenot hitting like he has you consider getting rid of a guy like DeRosa if helps you get Bradley.

I'm not but I don't expect Dempster to completely fall apart either. I doubt he will pitch like an ace again, but I think the guy will still be good. Why are you so sure Marshall will be in the rotation? Why can't Chad Gaudin win the spot? Why is Gaudin a worse option then Marshall? Gaudin actually has more success starting then Marshall has had the last two years. I don't get why people don't consider Gaudin a starter, when just in 07 he started 34 games had a 4.43 era in the AL and pitched 199 innings. Then last year he only started one less game then Marshall, and had a better era as a starter. I think Gaudin or Marshall could do the same thing Marquis did, and who ever isn't starter is just fine as the swing guy. Of course I would rather upgrade and use Marshall as the swing guy, Gaudin 6-7th inning, but I think we have the same depth last year still. Marshall or Gaudin take Marquis spot, whoever isn't starting takes Marshall swing guy spot, and Vizcaino, Guzman or Wuertz takes Gaudin 6-7 inning spot. Didn't that happen last year? Zambrano went on the DL and we didn't have Harden yet? We had Gallagher, Marshall and Marquis in the same rotation, and we still didn't lose every game.

How is the pitching depth gonna be worse then last year? We had Rich Harden for 12 starts last year, and I'm confident he will start at least 12 games if not more. When Harden wasn't starting we had a bad Rich Hill, below average Gallagher and Sean Marshall, in the rotation with Jason Marquis. Gaudin had a 4.43 era in 34 starts in 07, and 3.75 era in 6 starts last year. I'm pretty confident he can do what pretty much Marquis did the last two years, if he has to start. But Sean Marshall has also been very solid when given the chance to start the last two seasons. I'm not really expecting much from Samardzija but I think it's possible he could step in and pitch like Gallagher did last season at some point. The only issue with this rotation will be if Dempster is ALOT worse then last season. But all signs right now point to Dempster at least being a solid 2-3 next year. But even if Dempster isn't that good, 25-27 starts from Harden, and maybe a little better year from Zambrano would put our rotation right back were it was last year. I still think we will add another SP(not sure it will be Peavy though), but even if don't I don't see our rotation in much worse shape then it was for most of last year.

Which I think the Cubs are actually ok with. I think they believe Hoffpauir can be productive in a limited role, facing mostly RH pitching. Then you have Reed Johnson who is very good against LH pitching. But that puts alot of faith in Fukudome being the first half Fukudome and not the second half guy. In all honestly there's not a huge difference from 06-07 DeRosa to Reed Johnson starting in the outfield if we have a injury. But you need to be able to get some offense from Fukudome then. I think the problem with this DeRosa stuff people are thinking he will be the 850s OPS 20 HR guy next year. But his power numbers were most likely a fluke thing and he will be a 790-800 OPS guy and 10-12 HR hitter. Having guys like Fontenot/Miles at 2b and Johnson/Hoffpauir filling in the outfield instead of 06-07 DeRosa isn't a major difference. Of course even 06-07 DeRosa is better, but not alot better then the depth we have. The depth on this team made DeRosa expandable in their eyes. I still don't think we can only count Milton Bradley for 80-90 games either, yes a full season is very unlikely. But 100-120 games isn't out of the question at all if the Cubs baby him right. There's extremely little evidence to support this. It's possible, but unlikely. And maybe, just maybe, those guys will give us the same numbers but it's a big gamble. We seem to be gambling a whole lot after winning 97 games last year. In the last five years he play over 120 games twice, and three years he didn't. Before 2005 he didn't have major injury issues, and was mostly not playing due to not being that good yet or off the field issues. So when the guys done it in his past, and is currently healthy I dunno how we can say book it he's playing 80-90 games next year. Nobody can predict injuries, they can just be cautious about a guys past, but if you're doctors say he's health passed all your work out test. Like Bradley reportly went though up in Arizona a few months back. You gotta think the guy is healthy right now, but you still gotta be cautious with him because of his past, and I think the Cubs will. Bradley probably won't be playing alot games when weather is bad, and Lou will give him a decent amount of days off I'm sure.

Because when Bradley has played the last two years, he's been very good and better then any other free agent outfielder. You could look at the injuries he had in 05-07, and the off the field issues he had before that caused him to miss games. But if you're doctors tested him out, and the guy is 100 percent healthy. It's hard not to want a hitter like him in your line-up. So if your doctors clear him and say he's healthy now, and he looks good. Thats pretty much the thing you have to go on, because it's not like other guys in the past had two or three years of poor health and then had a good run of health. Before 2005 Bradley health was pretty good, he just missed games due to off the field issues or didn't get playing time. I don't think the Cubs are giving Bradley this type of contract unless their getting very good reports from their doctors.

Which I think the Cubs are actually ok with. I think they believe Hoffpauir can be productive in a limited role, facing mostly RH pitching. Then you have Reed Johnson who is very good against LH pitching. But that puts alot of faith in Fukudome being the first half Fukudome and not the second half guy. In all honestly there's not a huge difference from 06-07 DeRosa to Reed Johnson starting in the outfield if we have a injury. But you need to be able to get some offense from Fukudome then. I think the problem with this DeRosa stuff people are thinking he will be the 850s OPS 20 HR guy next year. But his power numbers were most likely a fluke thing and he will be a 790-800 OPS guy and 10-12 HR hitter. Having guys like Fontenot/Miles at 2b and Johnson/Hoffpauir filling in the outfield instead of 06-07 DeRosa isn't a major difference. Of course even 06-07 DeRosa is better, but not alot better then the depth we have. The depth on this team made DeRosa expandable in their eyes. I still don't think we can only count Milton Bradley for 80-90 games either, yes a full season is very unlikely. But 100-120 games isn't out of the question at all if the Cubs baby him right.

This offense is still gonna score alot of runs, we still have hitters like Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Soriano, and if you add Bradley to that mix thats five good to very good hitters. Mixing in guys like Theriot, Fukudome/Johnson and Fontenot/Miles isn't change things a ton. I do think we lost some power, but we will still get on base alot and will still have one of the top offenses in the NL. Because even our three so-so hitters in our line-up all should get on base at a good rate, which will put our big five in a postion to drive them in alot.

For a guy like DeRosa you're probably gonna get a good to average prospect at best. Hendry decided to take a good relief prospect, and two low level guys with good arms and high upside. Instead a good or average prospect who might be in Double A or Triple A, but don't have high celing. In a year or two Gaub or Archer might be one of our better prospects like Ceda was. So to say these guys will flame out is a bit unfair. I understand what your saying about trying to win a championship, and trading good players away. But you gotta look at the big picture, of improving the team as a whole. The production gained from Bradley and possibly another good starter, is greater then the production lost from going with Fontenot/Miles over DeRosa. Which will also be a nice upgrade when Bradley is healthy. I know the key word is if healthy, but from what I heard the Cubs have put Bradley through many test, and he's passed them all with flying colors. So the guy is currently 100 percent healthy, and had no major health issues last year. How long that will last who knows, but it's not a sure thing he will miss 70 games, just likely he will miss some.

Miles part of the platoon is gonna get 120 AB's or so. Miles had a 738, 704 and 755 OPS against LH pitching the last three years. So his lack of power isn't gonna weigh down the platoon that much, because of how much less AB's he gets. If Fontenot hits 280/360/810 getting 400 AB's, mix with say Miles 290/360/730 numbers against LH pitching, it will be simliar to what DeRosa did in 07. I think giving Fontenot this role is a little risky as well, but I also think he deserves this chance. The guy had 924,825 and 807 OPS in his last three years in the minors, and has hit well in the majors when he's gotten a chance to play.

DeRosa career OPS is 770, so if you're gonna go by career numbers then it's pretty even to. DeRosa is most likely going to be a around 800 OPS guy like he was in 06-07. Here's what DeRosa did the last two years, and what the Fontenot/Miles platoon would have done. DeRosa 285/376/857 -08 293/371/791 -07 Fontenot/Miles platoon 307/387/858 -08 292/364/752 -07 So honestly the numbers aren't that far off, and the only difference in 07 is really the power. But keep in mind that was also Fontenot rookie season. Fontenot has always shown pretty good power when facing RH pitching, as he proved last year. Yes there's little chance Fontenot/Miles platoon will come close to 08 DeRosa(09 DeRosa probably won't either), when getting 500 AB's. But there's a very good chance that combo could come close to putting up simliar to 06-07 DeRosa numbers. Keep in mind Fontenot often put up DeRosa type numbers in the minors, and facing mostly righties should help do that in the majors. In the big picture Gregg is probably gonna allow 2-5 more runs then Wood did last season, and probably pitch a few more innings. I know Wood will make things look like prettier, and the fans love him. But going from Wood to Gregg isn't gonna have a major impact on our bullpen. I agree moving Marmol to closer could have a big impact on the pen. But even if he's moved to closer, I really doubt he will a closer who pitches one inning. Lou is still gonna use Marmol for plenty of 5-6 out saves, and he come in if someone gets in a jam in the 8th. Lou will still use him as a weapon and to clean up the mess, it will just be in the 8th and 9th instead of the 7th and 8th. If the bullpen is gonna be good or not next year doesn't really depend on Marmol/Gregg IMO. Because I still expect Marmol to be used as a weapn, and not just a closer(if he does close), and I expect Gregg to be solid. IMO the pen being good or not depends on how Gaudin, Wuertz, Guzman, Vizcaino and maybe Samardzija pitch. If even two of those guys pitch to the level their capable of we will have a pretty good pen.

Because we don't want to waste 2.5M on a backup catcher? Especially a back up catcher who might only get 110-120 AB's. Thats a huge waste of money, when you have a catcher like Soto around. I dunno how anyone can say the Cubs free spending has came back to haunt us yet. I think it depends on how things work out this season. If Fontenot/Miles platoon is productive(should be), Gregg pitches well and our bullpen is good then losing Wood/DeRosa doesn't hurt. I know both guys are fan favorites so it feels alot worse losing those guys and replacing them with guys like Gregg/Miles. But I really don't think we downgraded those spots as much as people are making it out to be. Especially when were adding a potential stud hitter(when healthy) in Bradley, and hopefully another good to very good SP.

Howry had an ERA+ of 84 last year with a WHIP of 1.458. Vizcaino posted an 87 ERA+ and a 1.457 WHIP. Howry's been better most other years. I don't see Vizcaino being an upgrade over Howry. I think Vizcaino struggles had to do with him being hurt last year. He also said he wasn't used enough late in the year, which caused his pitches not to stay sharp. If you look just at Vizcaino stats from June though August(pitched just two games in April before going on DL), his numbers aren't nearly as bad(1-0,4.21 era, 36 IP,39 SO, 9 BB, 226 average against). Howry had a reason why he was bad last year because his stuff dropped off alot compared to years past. While Vizcaino stuff was still pretty glld last year when healthy, and just had a bad year despite his stuff still being solid. Which happens to middle relievers all of the time, and they bounce back. For Howry to bounce back next year he needs his stuff to come back or figure out another way to get hitters out.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/12/cubsrumors1231.php#more

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/1357968,CST-SPT-cub01.article Again to me it sounds like if they can get a payroll boost from the new owner(which it seems they believe they can), they will look into adding another starting pitcher. But adding that depends on if they can get a Peavy deal worked out or if their is still good remaining free agent pitchers on the market. If they don't get a payroll boost, or can't add a good pitcher in a trade or free agent, then I think they will let Gaudin, Marshall and Samardzija battle it out in spring training. But I still think Hendry would like to add another good starting pitcher this offseason.

Is there really a difference between Bako and Hill? Yes I think Bako could get some hits backing up Soto if he gets 110-120 AB's next year. Bako was having a pretty good season last year and was hitting 256/338/768 in his first 121 AB's last year. Of course then Dusty Baker decided to give him 299 AB's so his numbers dropped off alot. But if he can hit 230-250 in 120 AB's or so for 500,000 next year he will be a bargin back up catcher IMO. Keep in mind Koyie Hill has hit below 150 in 114 AB's with the Cubs over the last two years. Bako might suck, and be a crappy back up catcher, but I think he's still a major leaguer. Koyie Hill isn't even a major leaguer at this point. But if Hill can beat out Bako for a roster spot, I'd be fine with it. But signing Bako would at least give us insurance incase Hill doesn't hit his weight.