cubsfan26

Hopefully soon or right after the Marquis deal becomes offical. I think clearing his salary is holding up the Bradley signing.

Bruce Levine gets alot of his information from major league scouts. I'm sure he also has some connections with Cubs front office people. So what I think is going on, either the Cubs scouts or front office people are telling Levine, that they still think they can get a Peavy deal done at some point. The prospects mentions are probably guys the Padres like, and might want in a deal(I'm sure it won't be the final package). But I don't think the Cubs and Padres are having any current talks about Peavy. But once a new owner is in place, and if he's willing to give them the ok to go after Peavy(Levine seems confident this would happen). Then I think the Cubs will restart the Peavy talks with the Padres. Until then I would expect the Peavy talks to be dead. But I would never say it's over until Hendry starts trading some of his spare parts away. Right now it looks like he has something planned with Pie, Cedeno, Wuertz/Hart not really having spots on the roster(not mention a open spot in the rotation). Mix that with Vitters, Stevens, Castillo and getting a third team involved, something might happen

We have been linked to Rich Aurilia earlier in the offseason, but Bruce Miles said those rumors weren't true. Maybe this is just Aurilia agent trying to create interest for him.

Well to be fair, Levine usually has been right about the Peavy talks. When other sources said the Cubs didn't have a chance to get Peavy, or Piniella came out said our rotation is set. Levine has always been saying since day one that the Cubs want Peavy and have a good chance to get Peavy. Even when things looked pretty unlikely earlier in the offseason. So I tend to believe him more then other sources. Plus I wouldn't be surprised if some of the other guys are just going off Towers comments saying the chance of reopening talks appear doubtful. Yes reopening serious talks now does appear doubtful, because the Cubs can't afford Peavy. But getting a nice payroll boost from the new ownership, could change that.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

No because most of that stuff happen when he was a young player in 02-04 and it's unlikely to happen now. . As others pointed out yesturday Bradley mixed with Hoffpauir, Gathright and Johnson is still better then Dunn. When you factor in how much Dunn defense would hurt us in RF. But you're also expecting injuries to be there, that aren't currently there.

if this is supposedly a detractor for Bradley. I have some words for you. You are doing it wrong. I'll bite. 98 101 141 75 96 61 126 (DH) The numbers of games he's played in a season since 2002. Only three years he missed games due to being on the DL though. The other seasons he didn't play because he was a young player who didn't get playing time or had off the field issues. Bradley being hurt from 05-07 is a bit of a concern. But if your doctors/trainers put him through test, and he passed them all. So you would think he's healthy now, and there's nothing wrong with him or it would have scared them away. Being a full-time RF and playing half his games in a smaller ballpark like Wrigley should also help him. In 2005 he was still in CF, and even started 15 of those 61 games in CF in 07, and neither were small ballparks. It's a risk signing him, but if he can play even 120 games per season he's a bargin at 10m per season, with the offensive numbers he will most likely put up.

I think Pie would also probably be in the deal. I can't see the Padres taking that deal unless their getting a SP in return. So maybe Pie(and Cedeno) to another team for a SP, and the rest of those guys will go to the Padres.

Mostly because Scott has been protected from left handed pitching. He's faced around a 4:1 ratio of RHP to LHP in his career, Bradley is a little less than 2.5:1. I meant to mention that. My point stands though. I think Bradley is a better hitter, but I don't think you can call one a platoon partner and the other an "impact bat". To me that implies that they're far apart, and I'm not sure they are. Plus it's also better that Bradley has faced RHP less, as he does not hit them well. He rakes against lefties and is not so good against RHP Also keep in mind that Bradley numbers are held back due to all the pitcher parks he's played in. Look at his splits from 04-06, and there's a huge difference in his OPS. Plus Scotts career numbers are kinda due to small sample size. He's the same age as Bradley but only played in two and half seasons. His numbers also appear to have gotten worse every seasons.

I personally would love to add Hermida, but I don't see the Marlins trading him to us unless Vitters is included. Which I feel is too much of a risk for Hermida right now. No thanks to Scott though, he's a platoon player and not a impact bat like Bradley.

Thats because Cintron was a young player, and not making any money yet. Womack was a bargin in 2004, but thats because he was bad in 03(we had him that season to). I'm not saying you can't find bargins with scrubs sometimes, but alot of the time you just get crap, and it hurts your roster if you have injuries. Just like we did in 2004-2006 when we had injury problems. The Cubs can't count on Cedeno being part of a platoon with Fontenot, or a quality fill in guy if we have a big injury. I would have been very upset if we traded DeRosa, and didn't bring in any infield depth, or someone to platoon with Fontenot. The Cubs might be able to sign Dunn for 10m, there isn't much of a market for him. But the fact is they don't want Dunn defense in the outfield, and would rather have Bradley over Dunn. If Bradley is even healthy for 120 games he's the better move IMO, when you factor in defense. But his injury history is a big concern of course. I will agree with you that some of these moves look questionable. But like I said yesturday I believe Hendry deserves the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. A few years ago many were freaking out about signing DeRosa and Lilly, both moves worked out very well. People thought signing Jason Marquis was gonna be an awful contract, and trading for Jason Kendall was awful. For the most part both of those moves ended up working out pretty decent. Last offseason some were mad we gave away Jacque Jones for nothing. After the way Jones went in the tank, that looks like a great move now. Nobody thought Dempster would be even a decent starter, very few thought Wood could stay healthy enough to be the closer, and very few thought Theriot could improve at the plate. Some were even worried about Soto, and thought we needed a better back up catcher in Blanco as insurance. All those moves worked out very well for us. Then pretty much this whole board hated the idea of signing Jim Edmonds, and it was a great move. Yeah I know signing Fukudome looks bad so far, and trades for Craig Monroe and Steve Trachsel for crap don't look great. But Fukudome still might bounce back, and the other trades ended up being crap for crap. So with his track record the last two years, I'm willing to bet that some of these questionable moves work out better then expected. I know Hendry doesn't have a great track record over six years, but over the last two years it's pretty darn good, and he's shown signs of improvements as a GM.

How much money did they make when they were putting up those numbers? Womack was very well paid then and was often a 4-6m player when he put those numbers up. Cintron made 1.9m in 2007, after his 06 season and before that he didn't make alot because he was a very young player. When the Cubs got those players they were scrubs, or were either hitting very poorly at the time, or coming off a bad season or two. So those are very bad examples, and even prove my point more. When you both Womack and Cintron were having good or simliar years, they were making Miles type money. Miles is coming off two solid back to back seasons for a bench player. 3 years from now if he drops off then he might be some scrub. But Miles is coming off two of his best seasons, and thats why he's getting paid the way he is. First of all Miles has had OBP of 377, 368 and 378 the last three seasons. So Miles has improved against LH pitching since earlier in his career. Second, I find it hard to believe that Alex Cintron is gonna sign a minor league deal after having a ok 08. He will only get a one year deal and probably only 1-1.5m due to his awful 07 season, but I don't see him signing a minor league deal. But the fact that we can't count on Cintron year to year is a decent reason to invest a little more money in Miles. But I seriously can't believe were still on this topic though. I think I have shown enough information to show that 2m plus is the going rate for players like Miles, like it or not. Here's a list of simliar or worse players to Miles and what they made last year. Alex Cora- made 2m in 08(signed a 2y-4m deal after 06) David Eckstein- made 4.5m in 08 Cesar Izturis- 2.8m in 08(signed a 2y 6m plus deal this offseason) John McDonald- 1.9m in 08 Mark Loretta-2.7m in 08 Jamey Carroll-2.1m in 08 Craig Counsell-2.8m in 08 Ryan Freel -3m in 08 I know some of those guys are getting paid for defense, but there all worse hitters then Miles or have been worse hitters in recent years. So factor that in with Felipe Lopez, Nick Punto, Ramon Vazquez and what Jerry Hairston probably still will get. I think the going rate for the Aaron Miles type of bench player is close to 2m.

Replacement level players don't average over 400 AB's per season. I'm sure you could find a scrap heap 3rd baseman, to have a sub 700 OPS for maybe 150-200 AB's. But you're more likely find crappy ones that don't do that and hurt you're offense. I find it pretty hard to believe you will find a replacement level guy to put up Miles numbers for 400 AB's. If you think Miles is a overpaid middle infielder thats fine, but then most back up middle infielders are then. Miles is getting the going rate for his type of player. We can bash Hendry all we want for worrying to much about depth and bench players. But I remember a time when Hendry didn't do that and how awful that was. The last two years he had plenty of depth, and when we had injuries we usually didn't miss a beat. Doesn't the memory of Rey Ordonez, Damian Jackson, Enquire Wilson, Tony Womack, Angel Pagan, Freddie Bynum getting regular playing time when we had injuries give anybody else nightmares? Those were guys we all picked up off the scrap heap and the outcome was very bad. I guess people forget how important good depth is to have when you have it. So they complain about spending too much money for a bench player. But if we had to trade DeRosa I'm glad Hendry brought in someone to replace him. If he just went with Cedeno in that spot, or just signed some scub, things could be very bad next season if we have a injury.

Probably a day or two after the Marquis trade is offical. Marquis is reportly out of the country until next week, so thats whats holding up that trade.

I don't understand why people are calling the players we got a bucket of balls. Stevens has the potential to be a solid set guy for years to come. The other guys are young and raw, but they both have very good stuff. Yes neither is ranked very highly in the Indians system, but are unproven A-ball players usually highly ranked in teams systems if their not high draft picks? When guys have big years in A or AA is when they usually move up the ladder and become good prospects. Jose Ceda was a very simliar prospect as Archer and Gaub when we got him as well. Hendry could have probably gotten a couple of average prospects maybe one in the top 10 of the Indians system for DeRosa. But that player or players upside probably wasn't really good. So he decided to take the higher ceiling lower level guys instead. I don't see anything wrong with what we got in return, other then that fact I dunno how it's gonna help us in 09.

Don't forget what Ramon Vazquez just got as well(2y at 4m), and I'm sure plenty of other simliar middle infielders got simliar contracts over the last few offseasons. As for Felipe Lopez he's shown signs of being good 2-3 years ago, but the last two season Miles ha been better. I agree that Lopez has more upside, but paying him 3.5 at one year, and Miles for 2y at 4.9, isn't a huge difference. Don't forget Miles is also gonna be used to platoon with Fontenot at 2b. Fontenot should be pretty solid against RH pitching, but there's major question marks about his hitting against LH pitching. So when you factor in Miles has had at least a 368 OBP against LH the last three seasons, it should make a solid platoon. Plus I think the Cubs trust Miles bat over Cedeno, and they could also use Cedeno as a piece in a trade, and still have a back up at SS and 3rd.

Thats because Miles might have gotten paid as a everyday player in arbiration. When you factor in his stats, and the amount of AB's he gets. If the Cards don't nontender him he's making more then 2.2m in 09 and more then 1.4m last year. Thats because other players around the league are making what Miles makes, especially if you consider the AB's he gets. Hitting 290 in 414 AB's he would have made more then 1.4m in 08, and hitting 317 in 380 AB's would have made him more then 2.2m in 09 through arbirtation. Lets play a little game, for everyone who thinks Miles is grossly overpaid. Then name me a bunch of guys around the league, who have hit what Miles has hit the last two years, while averaging 400 AB's a season, making alot less then he will be making in 09? I'm willing to bet you won't find many guys, because thats the going rate for that type of player, like it or not. If you don't think having a player like this and depth is important, when then thats your opinion I guess.

He will at least come pretty close to those numbers, I only mentioned that because they were in his career numbers. Having OPS of 700 shouldn't be expected out of him if he's getting 400 AB's that often. But getting OBP at or around 330 rate is probably realistic, when you consider he's done in most years of his career. Getting 380-420 AB's is alot of AB's for a player like Miles, hopefully he doesn't have that many with the Cubs and is somewhere around 280-300. If thats the case I think he can put up better numbers in a smaller sample size. But it's still nice to have a guy on the roster who can hit for average and get on base a little bit coming off the bench, incase we have a injury, even if he has no power.

In our system I'd take that bet. I don't see us having a guy who we can call up hit 290 get on base at a 330 rate and have OPS in the 700s while getting 300-400 AB's if he has to, in our system right now. Yes some some scrub might be able to do that for a week or whatever. I think thats the point though people look at Miles numbers and say well there not that great or average. But people need to factor in the AB's he gets, if the guy is only getting 200 AB's he's probably alot better hitter. Miles would be a bad everyday player(almost gets the AB's of a everyday player though), but is a good bench player who can be part of a platoon and start for you at times. I don't see how paying 2.2m for him next year is that much overpaying. Especially when other simliar players just signed simliar contracts.

Again, the supply is through the roof and there is no demand. In years past he may have gotten that raise, but under current conditions, there was no reason why the Cubs GM had to be the idiot that gave it to him (and then guaranteed a 2nd year). And as I said before, number of positions matters because Hendry is insanely in love with the concept of versatility. Just because he has played other positions doesn't mean he has anymore value. If he's anything other than a backup 2nd baseman he's hurting your team. Again bench/platoon middle infielders are still getting paid. Nick Punto, Ramon Vazquez and Felipe Lopez all got simliar or bigger contracts then Miles. I don't think you get it when it comes to versatility. Yes if Miles is playing over Aramis Ramirez he is hurting your team. But if Ramirez is hurt for a few days, and the other options is some bad hitter in Triple A, Miles doesn't look so bad there filling in. Same thing goes at SS with Miles replacing Theriot for a few days, and is just fine platoon at 2b. Being able to play alot of postions gives a player extra value, any GM will tell you that. Yes in fantasy baseball versatility is meaningless, but in real baseball it's important. Name me the playoffs teams last year that didn't have good versatility or great health? You either need very good luck health wise or good depth to survive a 162 game season. The 2004-2005 Cubs had very little depth, so once Alex Gonzalez, Ramirez, Nomar and others all missed time we were screwed with scubs. Having the options to go to a Reed Johnson if a outfield is hurt for a few days, or Miles at 2b or SS if a infielder is hurt for a few days is a good thing. I guess you don't remember the days of signing Rey Ordonez, or Damian Jackson to play SS or Tony Womack in 05 to play 2b. That kinda crap happens to the team when they don't have good versatility and depth. Hendry learned from that mistake and thats why he cares so much about depth the last few seasons. I much rather spend an extra million on a major league player who can hit a little bit even if he's stuck getting 300-400 AB's, then sign a bunch of scubs who will really hurt your team with any real playing time.

Except he was non-tendered by his team during an offseason in which 170 something free agents are out there not getting deals because the economy is a mess and most GMs don't want to waste millions on replacable crap players. He was nontender by his team because they have money issues, and was probably gonna get a 1m plus raise in arbitration, and the Cardinals couldn't afford Miles at 2.5-3m. They also did try to resign him probably for 1.8-2m per season. But aftering adding Greene to play SS, he become less valueable to them. Aaron Miles would have gotten 1y at 2m this offseason, I dunno about the second year. But he would have gotten some money after what he did last season, and how many postions he plays. I know Felipe Lopez has more upside, but he was worse then Miles the last two seasons, and he signed a 1y at 3.5m with the D-backs. He wouldn't have gotten some money just because of what he did last year. He still had to find a team that was dumb enough to pay him. There was no guarantee that Aaron Miles would get a raise. And what does the number of positions matter? Jim Hendry is probably the biggest sucker in baseball for versatility. The fact is he got his money from the Cubs because the general manager of the Cubs likes to waste money on mediocrity. He's done it every single year. Only a handful of other players have gotten paid this winter. There's an absurd amount of supply on the market and no demand. Having a much better season then the one you had before usually will get you a raise, and yes number of postions he can play does matter. Because it improves the depth of you're team, since teams have plenty of injuries over the course of a 162 game season, and having a major league hitter who can fill in is helpful when that happens. You can believe whatever you wanna believe, but when Ramion Vazquez is signing 2y at 4m deal, Nick Punto at 2y at 8m, Felipe Lopez is signing 1y at 3.5m. I think the going rate for a player like Miles is probably around 2m. When you see those contracts, I dunno how you believe a GM wouldn't have given Miles 2m for 09. Teams aren't scared to pay bench/platoon players 2m plus per year. The reason why theres' so many free agents left, is because nobody wants to pay 8-15m plus for 2-4 years for players.

Except he was non-tendered by his team during an offseason in which 170 something free agents are out there not getting deals because the economy is a mess and most GMs don't want to waste millions on replacable crap players. He was nontender by his team because they have money issues, and was probably gonna get a 1m plus raise in arbitration, and the Cardinals couldn't afford Miles at 2.5-3m. They also did try to resign him probably for 1.8-2m per season. But aftering adding Greene to play SS, he become less valueable to them. Aaron Miles would have gotten 1y at 2m this offseason, I dunno about the second year. But he would have gotten some money after what he did last season, and how many postions he plays. I know Felipe Lopez has more upside, but he was worse then Miles the last two seasons, and he signed a 1y at 3.5m with the D-backs.

I think the issue is that the Cubs are maxed out on payroll, under the current ownership (or lack thereof). The optimistic view would be that one of the reasons Hendry made the DeRosa trade was to stockpile pitching prospects that Towers' approved of, and once the ownership situation is squared away Hendry now has the pieces in place to pull the trigger on a Peavy deal. The most likely scenario is that Hendry was not permitted to add any salary until after new ownership is in place. I believe that Hendry could have traded for a non-Bradley RF, but doing so would have used up some of the pieces he'll need to complete a trade for Peavy, which he believes he can still do. For some reason, he wasn't willing to wait any longer to add Bradley. Maybe Bradley's agent told him that they were going to pick a landing spot soon or maybe Hendry just feared that would happen and he'd be left with less-desirable (in his mind) choices Abreu and Dunn and less leverage. As such, the DeRosa trade was simply to create payroll room to add Bradley. I'm hoping that Hendry signed Miles as a second class replacement for DeRosa, thinking that he may be able to add a more genuine replacement (Teahen) later in the offseason. If that's the way it winds up playing out, I will be quite pleased (except for paying Aaron F. Miles $2+). Good post, I know the 2.2m for Miles in 09 does seem high, but the guy made 1.4m last year, and hit 317/355/753 in 134 games. So he was gonna a 500,000 to 1 million raise from someone. Honestly 2m is probably the going rate for a guy who can play as many postions as Miles and who can hit for average like he has. Giving Miles the extra 900,000 between 09-10 is overpaying a little, but I think he's 2m per year player. I know a few people will be like Miles is a league average player, and any scub could do what he does at 1m per year. But when you consider the way Miles has hit with the amount of AB's he gets, you would know thats not true. Some scub for 800,000 to 1m might be able to put up Miles numbers up for 150-200 AB's but not 400. Being a career 290/330/690 hitter averageing 400 plus AB's per year, and being able to play 2b, SS, 3b and even the outfield in a pinch will make you a 2m dollar per year player. Hendry did overpay a little, and I could have went witout the second year, but I think some are nitpicking a bit.

lol...quite the haul... I see Archer and Gaub kinda like Ceda when we got him. Both have high upside, but both are risky prospects because their so young/raw right now. Both have potential to turn into quality prospects, but both could also be flops. I think Stevens is the most sure thing of the group, but he might have the least amount of upside. I heard he's projected to be a solid young Bob Howry type reliever.

Well I call him a 4-5 starter for us, but he could have been a number 3 on some teams. When you look at how the market was in 06/07 and 07/08 offseasons and how much pitchers were getting then. Going 11-9 and 12-9 with a 4.43 era in 61 starts for 7m per season was the going rate for a pitcher with those numbers. There's a ton of pitchers making alot more money or simliar money who weren't close to as good as Marquis has been. I recall at the time Suppan was one of the only other solid starting pitchers left on the market. I bet the Brewers wished they signed Marquis to a 3y, at 21m deal instead of signing Suppan to 4y at 42m right now. The only reason why the Cubs have to take on Vizcaino contract, is because Marquis deal is so much this year because it was backloaded. So we would have owed him that money in previous seasons anyways. But part of the reason why Marquis is tough to trade right now is because of the economy. Teams don't wanna spend 7m on 3-4 starters right now, when the last few years that was the going rate for that type of pitcher. If Marquis had 1y at 7m(with us eating 2.8m we owed him due only paying him 4.5 and 6.7m in 07-08), last offseason we would have had no problem trading him IMO. Ok maybe not in this market, but he's a 17m player with the market the way it has been the last few years. When you consider Beltran, Carlos Lee, Torii Hunter and others are making simliar money per year with simliar career stats or worse then Soriano. The economy is so bad right now, only the top 4-6 free agents will be getting big money. The rest of the guys will suffer, so you will get some bargins this year, compared to the past. But Soriano isn't overpaid on a yearly bases compared to other guys making what he makes. Soriano is very unlikely to be a 17m player 6 years from now, but the investment in Soriano was to win now. When teams sign guys to 6-8 plus year deals, they realize most of the time their overpaying the guy the final year or two of the deal. I'm sure the Yankees don't expect Texeria being a 20m plus player in eight years, or A-Rod being worth 25m at age 42 either. What will make Soriano deal good or bad IMO. Will be how many prime level years he has, and how much he drops off later in his career. If Soriano is hitting at the level he is now for another 4 years, and still a 800 OPS type hitter at age 37-38, I don't think his contract will be bad. Of course if Soriano only has 2 or 3 really good years left, and is awful at age 37-38, then it will be a bad contract. But the point I'm making is we don't know how that will turn out yet, nobody can predict the future. It all depends on how well Soriano ages, or not.