Any time a player comes out of nowhere and succeeds right off the bat despite there being virtually no reason for them to based on their minor league numbers, I kind of always chalk it up to a lack of scouting reports. That's just me though, and it's probably wrong, but I kind of always default to that mode when a nobody breaks out to perform well. Then the league adjusts and so do their numbers. I think Wells is a fine pitcher, but the league obviously adjusted in 2010, but he was still valuable. A 4.00 ERA type pitcher is nothing to gawk at, but they serve their purpose, and Wells was still a 3 win pitcher (3.2 fWAR, 3.0 rWAR) in 2010 and if that's the kind of pitcher he is we should all be happy leaving him in the rotation. But yeah, I irrationally don't trust him