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davearm2

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Everything posted by davearm2

  1. davearm2
    If MLB wanted to make the right concessions to the MLBPA, then the union would agree to get rid of the DH. Say they agree to drop the DH, but expand rosters from 25 to 27. Instantly, 60 new bigleague jobs are available, although naturally it would be bad for guys like Jim Thome and David Ortiz. Maybe the union would go for that, I dunno. I don't sense there's much of a movement within MLB to try and enact that change, though.
  2. davearm2
    My expectation is that #1 is the most likely outcome. Hence the conclusion, they didn't have to make any moves at all to have that kind of (on-paper, projected) improvement. So to recap. Wood-Maholm-Volstad are expected to outperform the actual performance of last year's BOR. That's of limited usefulness, though, because (again, IMO) Zambrano-Cashner-Wells would also have been expected to outperform their actual performance from 2011. Hope this helps.
  3. davearm2
    He's 27 years old. Of course it is not the smartest thing, but with the DH he's going to be great for at the very least 6 of those years. He hasn't even been "great" for all of the last 4-5 years. Career 930 OPS. Close to a 400 OBP. 35+ HR a year. I'd say he has been great. I wouldn't have given 9 years @ that average salary per season, but the guy is a great hitter and young. Being a great hitter counts for a lot, but the rest of his game is starkly below average. And while he may be young in a strict chronological sense, his physique puts him on a much different, accelerated aging curve. He's not 27 in "baseball years", for lack of a better term.
  4. davearm2
    Nicely done Rob. Even if you forgot to mention my article on Fielder's projected value ;) I think in the coming days, all of the media's experts and insiders will be presenting the same conclusions you did.
  5. davearm2
    He's 27 years old. Of course it is not the smartest thing, but with the DH he's going to be great for at the very least 6 of those years. I'll take the under. For $214M.
  6. davearm2
    $23.8M AAV. Holy Schlitz
  7. davearm2
    I'm having a hard time categorizing these plans as "inspired ideas" or "outside the box" thinking. Just about every other professional team has the LED boards and ribbon strips, and most major colleges do too. To me what's remarkable is that this stuff wasn't put in years ago.
  8. davearm2
    wtf are you talking about? of course they did wtf we are talking about is the difference between projected performance and actual performance. The current crew (Wood, Maholm and Volstad) project now about the same as the last crew (Zambrano Cashner Wells) projected last spring. Pointing out that the last crew performed worse than projected isn't particularly revealing. no, what you're said is that the team didn't have to make any changes in the rotation to improve upon their performance from last year. you're wrong. I'm wrong if you rather curiously believe players will perform exactly the same in 2012 as they did in 2011. You may believe that; I do not.
  9. davearm2
    I totally agree. I love the direction. Absolutely 100%. Adding Cespedes and/or Soler, and dealing Garza for the kind of package we all expect would nail perfection for me. But so far, it's been phenomenal.
  10. davearm2
    wtf are you talking about? of course they did wtf we are talking about is the difference between projected performance and actual performance. The current crew (Wood, Maholm and Volstad) project now about the same as the last crew (Zambrano Cashner Wells) projected last spring. Pointing out that the last crew performed worse than projected isn't particularly revealing.
  11. davearm2
    The point is, the same players would be an improvement, so long as they didn't underperform again. On paper, they haven't really gotten better. You mean they haven't really gotten better than the projections...which were better than the actual performance. So they've improved from the actual performance of last year. Well I guess so. But they didn't have to make any moves at all to have that kind of "improvement". By that thinking, they have improved in LF too. Soriano shouldn't be as bad as he was last year, with a .260ish BABIP.
  12. davearm2
    The point is, the same players would be an improvement, so long as they didn't underperform again. On paper, they haven't really gotten better.
  13. davearm2
    On paper, Maholm Wood and Volstad project to be better than last year's BOR. On paper, Zambrano Cashner and Wells project to be better than last year's BOR. Ergo, using hindsight isn't particularly useful, unless you have some reason to believe that the current group is immune from the factors that caused the last group to underachieve expectations.
  14. davearm2
    Hard to imagine any top FA with solid alternative offers choosing to spend the balance of his career with the O's.
  15. davearm2
    I'd be curious to know what Theo's proprietary defensive metric(s) say about Barney. His system may like Barney more or less than the others we're familiar with.
  16. davearm2
    I wouldn't worry too much. I think Theo and co. are setting themselves up to acquire their superstars via trade, a la Adrian Gonzalez. They're accumulating quite a bit of prospect inventory. I wonder if Theo's man crush on King Felix will ever materialize into anything for us. They'll have to acquire a lot better "inventory" then they are currently collecting for that to happen. I'm not exactly sure how they will acquire the inventory either. I don't agree with that. Right about now, Felix Hernandez's salary is catching up to his value. He's got 3 years and ~$60M left on his deal. As good as he is, that still limits his trade value. Perhaps the Cubs would be out of the running if he was still being paid less than $10M.
  17. davearm2
    I wouldn't worry too much. I think Theo and co. are setting themselves up to acquire their superstars via trade, a la Adrian Gonzalez. They're accumulating quite a bit of prospect inventory.
  18. davearm2
    I think we can all agree, Hendry did an amazing job constructing both of those teams.
  19. davearm2
    Finally the Rox have a shortstop
  20. davearm2
    Yep nobody could have seen that coming. :roll:
  21. davearm2
    I had no idea volleyball players could make that kind of dough
  22. davearm2
    A minor league contract. At 49. I'm fully convinced that he hates his family. Probably means nothing. I'd be awfully surprised if Moyer actually pitches in the minors. More likely, he'll be gone if he doesn't make the Rox.
  23. davearm2
    I'm not that concerned about the Brewers. Years ago they launched their homegrown core of Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Braun, Sheets etc., and we worried. Now that group is breaking up and/or getting expensive, and the pipeline to replace it doesn't look too great. Soon, the Cubs will both have more money to spend, and a better group of young/cheap guys.
  24. davearm2
    Your point is well taken, but on the other hand you'd have to consider that at a certain pricepoint, the Brewers might try and get real creative to make it work. Maybe dumping Hart and KRod for anything frees up the $$$, for example. Yes, they could get creative and do that. Totally agree. Just not sure they want to start creating other holes on their team AND invest a great deal of money into Prince over a five or six year span. Actually I was speculating on how the Brewers might respond if the ask goes to 2/45 or 3/60 as others threw out. I presume that they're totally out if it's 5-6 years.
  25. davearm2
    Your point is well taken, but on the other hand you'd have to consider that at a certain pricepoint, the Brewers might try and get real creative to make it work. Maybe dumping Hart and KRod for anything frees up the $$$, for example.
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