davearm2
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Everything posted by davearm2
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??? That's a true or false question. There are only two choices, by definition.
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I'm considering defense and baserunning too.
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I want you to say right now that Fielder's and Pujols's contracts will turn out worse than Teixiera's I have no earthly idea how this will end. What I do know is that I would have been more comfortable offering Teix his contract than offering Fielder the same deal (8/180), or Pujols one that's say 25% larger (8/225). If you're telling me Teix's deal sucks, then I'm even more certain than before that I don't want to offer those other two deals. Not rocket science, friends.
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You realize this does not support the argument for signing Fielder, right? Sure it does. Your ideal, perfect world scenario is going to be a terrible contract under your narrow-minded definition. In retrospect you wouldn't sign him and would sign Jay Gibbons to play 1B, and your team would be terrible. If I think Teix is a better bet to age well than Fielder, and Teix's contract turns out to be a mistake, does that make me more willing to sign Fielder, or less willing to sign Fielder? It makes you completely ignorant of what it takes to sign a top-flight talent. It takes a buttload of money. Way to avoid the question. Like I said, banging on Teix's contract does not support the argument for signing Fielder.
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Value and predictiveness are not the same thing. Strikeouts and other outs are fairly close in value. They are not fairly close in predictiveness. There's almost no predictive value for these guys though. Like I said, that theory applies to minor leaguers or really young/raw guys. you can't honestly be serious with this insane nonsense Well answer for me what it tells us. Howard is a .928 OPS hitter in ~4400 major league PAs, and he has a high K rate. Fielder is a .929 OPS hitter in ~4200 major league PAs, and he has a lower K rate. What does the difference in K rate tell us about future production?
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Value and predictiveness are not the same thing. Strikeouts and other outs are fairly close in value. They are not fairly close in predictiveness. There's almost no predictive value for these guys though. Like I said, that theory applies to minor leaguers or really young/raw guys.
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I thought a guy with a .900 OPS and 150 Ks is equally as valuable as a guy with a .900 OPS and 50 Ks. Do I have that wrong? He just answered that question. He did?
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You realize this does not support the argument for signing Fielder, right? Sure it does. Your ideal, perfect world scenario is going to be a terrible contract under your narrow-minded definition. In retrospect you wouldn't sign him and would sign Jay Gibbons to play 1B, and your team would be terrible. If I think Teix is a better bet to age well than Fielder, and Teix's contract turns out to be a mistake, does that make me more willing to sign Fielder, or less willing to sign Fielder?
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Isn't that accounted for in the WAR? In the historical WARs, yes. IMO the better balance means the future WARs should trend better. Why? Does a decline phase not affect baserunning and defense?? The hypothesis is that having a better all-around game mitigates a guy's collapse rate. Perhaps someone with a BP subscription can do some checking in PECOTA and see if this is accurate.
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Strikeouts don't matter didn't you get the memo that's an incredibly obnoxious comment, and you know it. the "strikeouts don't matter that much" argument is made in refernece to how the strikeouts actually affect the game. when determining how a player is likely to perform in future situations, strikeouts are very important. I thought a guy with a .900 OPS and 150 Ks is equally as valuable as a guy with a .900 OPS and 50 Ks. Do I have that wrong? did you even read my post? are you intentionally pretending not to understand, or are you seriously failing to grasp this simple premise? I'm failing to grasp your point. Both Fielder and Howard have over 6 years of bigleague track record -- 4210 PAs for Fielder, and 4409 for Howard. Howard has basically matched Fielder offensively, despite the higher strikeout rate -- .929 OPS for Fielder, .928 for Howard. So I guess I need it explained what the strikeout rate tells us about how these two players are "likely to perform in future situations". Strikeout rate holds some predictive value for 19 year olds in A ball. It doesn't for established ML veterans.
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Strikeouts don't matter didn't you get the memo that's an incredibly obnoxious comment, and you know it. the "strikeouts don't matter that much" argument is made in refernece to how the strikeouts actually affect the game. when determining how a player is likely to perform in future situations, strikeouts are very important. I thought a guy with a .900 OPS and 150 Ks is equally as valuable as a guy with a .900 OPS and 50 Ks. Do I have that wrong?
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Isn't that accounted for in the WAR? In the historical WARs, yes. IMO the better balance means the future WARs should trend better.
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How is Teix's bat elite and Prince's is not? Teix career wOBA: .384 Prince career wOBA: .391 Prior to their respective age 28 seasons, Teix had 3 seasons of .400+ wOBA (.405, .406, .410) and Prince has had 3 (.417, .420, .408). Career OPS: Teix - .904; Prince - .929 Teix was more valuable prior to his huge contract than Prince (4.5 average WAR to 3.3) but it's because of defense rather than offense. Prince is the better offensive player. And Adrian Gonzalez was never a free agent, if I'm right in that he's who you were referring to. He was traded to the Red Sox before he hit the market. But if you want to include him anyway, prior to heading to the Sox, here's their respective numbers: Gonzalez average WAR: 3.0 Gonzalez wOBAs over .400: 1; career wOBA: .375 Prince average WAR: 3.3 WAR Prince wOBAs over .400: 3; career wOBA: .391 My guess would be that Petco held down Gonzalez' numbers, but Prince was statistically the better player through each player's age 28 season. Is it just that Prince is fat and Teix/Gonzalez are not that make you comfortable with them? Teix and Gonzalez have well-rounded games, including excellent defense and average or better baserunning, as well as better body types.
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As I've said repeatedly, I'm willing to stick my neck out on a massive contract. Just not for either of these two guys, on anything longer than 6 years. I mentioned Teix and Gonzalez as two guys I would have been happy to sign at the years and dollars they received. Elite offensive, elite defensive, young and in shape players are out there -- just not this offseason. How's that Teix contract working out? You realize this does not support the argument for signing Fielder, right?
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As I've said repeatedly, I'm willing to stick my neck out on a massive contract. Just not for either of these two guys, on anything longer than 6 years. I mentioned Teix and Gonzalez as two guys I would have been happy to sign at the years and dollars they received. Elite offensive, elite defensive, young and in shape players are out there -- just not this offseason.
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Strikeouts don't matter didn't you get the memo
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Howard's splits were drastic in 2011. Prior to that, his career ops vs. lefties wasn't that different from Fielder's: .768 vs .799 By the time Fielder gets to be Howard's age, we might be calling him a platoon guy too. Who knows.
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And if Soriano had helped the Cubs to a single championship, then he would have been worth it too. I have Pujols being at a 6+ win level for another 4 years, then sliding pretty dramatically. Fielder, I have a very hard time projecting, a) because of his body type, and b) because his production to date has been so up and down.
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Sure I can. He's a younger, better player. You're out of your gourd. If 5/125 is laughably bad for Howard, then there's absolutely no defending something like 6/150 or 7/175 for Fielder. There's just not that much separating these guys. Except for age and better offensive consistency and splits. Just stop and listen to yourself for a minute. Consistency? Splits? You're really reaching now.
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I could get behind that if the contract is 6 years. Sure, but it's not like, say, 8 years, would suddenly make it a crippling deal. Again with the crippling garbage? As if that's the only reason not to do it. Sheesh.
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Sure I can. He's a younger, better player. You're out of your gourd. If 5/125 is laughably bad for Howard, then there's absolutely no defending something like 6/150 or 7/175 for Fielder. There's just not that much separating these guys.
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I could get behind that if the contract is 6 years.
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Wrong. Fielder, almost 100# overweight. Don't forget more expensive. Look you can't paint the Howard and Werth contracts as awful in one breath, and pine for Fielder in the next. It's pure foolishness. What little separates them as players, is mitigated by the other factors (body, cost, etc.)
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So you're saying Howard's production tailed off after he signed his big contract. Huh.
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Baseball-Reference WAR statistics, in the four seasons leading up to free agency. See if you can tell these players apart without looking it up. P1 P2 P3 P4 Y1 2.8 2.1 4.0 5.8 Y2 4.2 6.1 0.8 2.6 Y3 3.1 2.7 1.7 2.8 Y4 5.2 5.2 5.7 4.4 Total 15.3 16.1 12.2 15.6