ISUCubsFan

I picked NDSU as well, but they don't rely on the three that much, they're actually 240th in the country 3PA/FGA. Woodside takes the most, but the best part of his game might be going in and getting to the FT line. In his 60 point game vs Stephen F. Austin (13th in Pomeroy adjusted D) he went 2/6 from 3 and 30/35 from the line. Their defense will have a hard time w/ Aldrich of course, and that's probably why they will lose, but they looked like the best major upset candidate I could find.

The first replay overturn ever (or at least that I know of) just happened in the Puerto Rico-Venezuela game. Someone hit the ball over the scoreboard in Florida, but it bounced back onto the field of play and was originally ruled a triple. Took about six minutes to review.

Pomeroy is based on points per possession, which is used over ppg because it adjusts for the different pace teams have (i.e. VMI isn't the best offense in the country just because they score the most points, they score the most points because they play really fast). It takes the offensive and defensive points per possession, adjusts for opponent and some other things, and uses those adjusted values to calculate a pythag winning percentage, similar to baseball. Look here for a full explanation. Sagarin takes the result and margin of victory of each game into account and comes up with a power ranking. The formula isn't public, so I can't help you much more than that. Use the predictor ratings for the most accurate results. If you want the best indicator of who will win though, I'd just take whoever the Vegas favorite is.

Announcer parings from this article: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/hiestand-tv/2009-03-15-cbs-selection-show_N.htm

Yeah, I though they would be in as well. 64/65 teams in. 34/65 teams on the correct line. 59/65 within one line. Might want to recount on a few of those since I did it quick, but not too bad.

Looks like Michigan, Creighton, St. Mary's, Penn St., and SDSU for one spot. And Butler I guess, making it 2.

Looks good to me. I think PSU probably should be in, but they are the most likely team we had in to be displaced by Mississippi State. Thanks for doing all the work on this Bukie. It was a lot of fun.

Soto batting 7th sounds crazy, but with the offensive options that are on this team I don't think it's a bad move. And since their numbers are somewhat comparable vs. RHP the difference is probably negligible either way.

My Suggested S-Curve: 1. North Carolina (UP 1) 2. Pittsburgh (DOWN 1) 3. Connecticut 4. Louisville (UP 2) 5. Michigan State 6. Oklahoma (DOWN 2) 7. Duke 8. Memphis 9. Wake Forest 10. Villanova (UP 2) 11. Kansas (DOWN 1) 12. Missouri (UP 1) 13. Washington (DOWN 2) 14. Florida State (UP 2) 15. Syracuse (UP 5) 16. UCLA (DOWN 1) 17. Gonzaga (UP 1) 18. Xavier (DOWN 1) 19. Illinois 20. Purdue (UP 2) 21. Clemson (DOWN 7) 22. West Virginia (DOWN 1) 23. Arizona State 24. Marquette 25. Utah (UP 5) 26. BYU (DOWN 1) 27. Texas (DOWN 1) 28. California (DOWN 1) 29. Tennessee (UP 2) 30. Oklahoma State (DOWN 2) 31. Butler (DOWN 2) 32. Ohio State (UP 6) 33. Wisconsin (DOWN 1) 34. Michigan (DOWN 1) 35. LSU (DOWN 1) 36. Boston College (DOWN 1) 37. Texas A&M (DOWN 1) 38. Minnesota 39. Penn State 40. San Diego State 41. Maryland 42. Dayton 43. USC (NEW) 44. Utah St. (PROJECTED) 45. Temple (NEW) 46. Siena 47. Cleveland St. 48. VCU 49. N Iowa 50. WKU 51. NDSU 52. S.F. Austin (PROJECTED) 53. Portland St. 54. American (NEW) 55. Akron (NEW) 56. Binghamton (NEW) 57. Cornell 58. Robert Morris 59. ETSU 60. Cal State Northridge (PROJECTED) 61. Morgan St. (NEW) 62. Radford 63. Chattanooga 64. Morehead St. 65. Alabama St. (NEW) Notes: - Louisville gets the last 1 seed. - I don't want to move UConn down when their only losses are Pitt(x2), G-town, and Cuse. - Clemson down 7 looks harsh, but it a combo of them falling a little, and other teams below that level moving up. - Utah's jump seems too high, though a 6-7 seed sounds about right. - Arizona dropping out is probably good. I think they deserve to be in, but I'm pretty sure they're going to be left out. - I don't know if it should happen, but moving Siena up should be discussed. - I like the teams we have in right now in terms of going 65/65. - There are a lot of auto-bids that need to be discussed towards the bottom of the bracket. I'm probably way off on some of these.

I think that's too harsh on Oklahoma. Oklahoma State isn't a terrible loss or anything, I'd go Louisville, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Duke, Memphis right now for 4-8. Duke can still move up though. I'd only put Clemson below Purdue if they beat Illinois. Still seems harsh. Xavier shouldn't get hurt that much, Temple isn't terrible. I'd go above WVU. Cuse below FSU seems good, but both should be above UCLA now. Missouri below KU seems fine, though I still think Nova should be above both of them now, or at least Washington. Too much of a jump for Utah and Tennessee. It's not like they've beat anyone in their tourneys yet. It's not jumping BYU I have a problem with, it's the other teams in between. Agree w/ Ohio State. Things should be clearer around 8 tonight, so I think I'll hold off on more changes until then.

Ohio State Minnesota Arizona Penn State San Diego State Maryland Dayton ---Cut Line--- St. Mary's Creighton Southern California South Carolina Utah State Virginia Tech Auburn Temple Florida New Mexico Fixed for USC win (almost typed this up too soon, wtf happened there) and to add the theoretical cut line. That assumes that a team already on the S-Curve wins all the BCS+CUSA+MWC titles (36-Gonzaga-8=27, 34-27=7). A10 chaos is already accounted for.

Ohio State Minnesota Arizona Penn State San Diego State Maryland Dayton St. Mary's Creighton South Carolina Utah State USC Virginia Tech Auburn Temple Florida New Mexico I don't know if I like this list, definitely the hardest one I've done so far. Arizona probably shouldn't be that high, but I can't get past the number of good wins they have. Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, and Washington are all huge, and most of the teams behind them have nowhere near that. Other Stuff: I'd put American between Portland State and Cornell on the auto bid list. Xavier should probably drop a little after today. I can probably think of a few more tweaks I'd like to make, but those will be clearer tomorrow night. I don't know if Bukie or someone else posted it earlier, but here's the NCAA seeding guidelines.

Working on my bubble list, but it kinda hard when half of the list is playing right now. Very intersting day today.

My mostly random thoughts going through the S-Curve: UNC is probably #1 overall now with Pitt and UConn losing. Pitt is still a 1 seed, UConn too unless some two seeds start winning their tourneys. OU should be on the 2 line now. TBD who takes their place. Kansas should go down a few, but not too far. Clemson should drop, I'd probably take FSU from the ACC over them after today. Cuse probably goes up after that marathon, WVU as well. Bubble Teams: Arizona is interesting, lots of good wins and no bad losses, but 19-13 is ugly along w/ their road record. Not sure what to do there. Auburn might need to get to the title game for a bubble shot, not much on the resume now. Creighton needs some teams to choke. Dayton needs not to choke. Florida needs a win or probably two. Maryland probably needs to beat Wake. Minnesota should be in. New Mexico just blew it as I typed this. Terrible non-con will do them in. Ohio State should be in. Penn State could be good, but should win just in case. SDSU sweeping UNLV is big, Utah probably locks them. South Carolina hasn't beat a tourney team yet, they should be closer to out than I think they are. St. Mary's is only close because of the Mills injury. Probably want him to light up Eastern Washington to show he's healthy. Temple isn't going to make up enough ground to get in. USC I might consider if they get past UCLA, but they should just win their tourney if they want in. Utah State needs to win their tourney, only good win is Utah and they have bad losses. VT needs a win vs UNC, maybe more. 13 losses with some bad ones in there is hard to overcome.

I'll probably be back later tonight with actual analysis, but in case I'm not I'll put this up now. Move Utah and/or Cal down 1 spot if they lose tonight. 16-19: Florida State Illinois Xavier Gonzaga 21-36: Arizona State Purdue West Virginia Marquette Utah BYU LSU California Texas Oklahoma State Wisconsin Michigan Butler Tennessee Texas A&M Boston College Auto Bids: Cleveland State Siena Northern Iowa Western Kentucky North Dakota state VCU Portland State Cornell Robert Morris East Tennessee State Radford Morehead State Chattanooga

I'd put Nova ahead of Kansas. Other than that maybe Washington or Missouri with deep runs. I might consider UCLA, Illinois, or FSU if they win their conference tourney, but I think Kansas is clearly ahead of them at this point. After today's loss Clemson should probably be included in the Florida St.-Illinois-Xavier-Gonzaga tiebreak.

How do the ISU fans view McDermott? There are already Iowa fans who can't stand Lickliter and he hasn't even finished his second year. Mostly willing to give him a break because he had sanctions on the team his first year and the team has had about a dozen players leave early/transfer/get kicked out/quit since the end of the 05-06 season. I think he did a great job his first year getting Wesley Johnson and Mike Taylor and going 6-10. Since then, though, there hasn't been much progress, and people are getting impatient. The defense is good, but offense is terrible for a major conference team, and it doesn't seem like in game adjustments are being made. His perception would probably be fine if they beat a good team once in a while, but they really don't have any big wins in his three years. Poor offensive teams that don't win aren't very popular. The attendance hasn't dropped to the levels Iowa's has recently, but it is going down. He's fine for now, but if there isn't anything in the next year or two there will be some pressure to make a change.

Iowa State's season ends with a loss that looked like a lot of their losses this year. Close for a while, but once the other team decides to double team Brackins the offense is gone. I really hope he comes back next year, but I think it's about 50-50 right now. I think McDermott needs to show some progress next year (or somehow sign Barnes), or he could be gone. Right now his offense isn't working at all, and if next years recruits can't make it work I don't know if it ever will.

I PMed this to you as well Bukie. Top 16 Remaining Locks: Villanova Wake Forest Kansas Missouri Washington Florida State Clemson Illinois Gonzaga UCLA Xavier Arizona State Syracuse Purdue Marquette LSU Top 8 Non-Locks: Ohio State Michigan Boston College Texas A&M Tennessee Wisconsin Arizona Minnesota

Preliminary lists. Will probably change between now and tomorrow. Let me know if I forgot anyone obvious. Top 16 Overall: Pittsburgh Connecticut North Carolina Oklahoma Michigan State Duke Louisville Memphis Wake Forest Villanova Kansas Missouri Washington Florida State Clemson Illinois Top 8 Non-Locks: Texas California West Virginia Utah Ohio State BYU Arizona Michigan

No thanks. Pudge hasn't very good at all since 2004. One game doesn't change that. I can't imagine his asking price is worth the upgrade over Bako/Hill when he'll be a backup. I also have an irrational fear that Lou would play him over Soto more than he should.

Iowa State won the Big 12 10th place game over Tech 78-76. Nice to see the seniors step up on Senior Day, especially Petersen who had 20. Hopefully they can finally win a Big 12 tournament game, but I don't like any of the potential matchups, with the possible exception of K-State.

Sick ending to the Creighton-Wichita State game. Wichita State came back from 20 down in the 2nd to take a 1 pt lead, but Creighton hit a 15 footer off an inbounds play at the buzzer. Losing there probably kills their at large chances. In other news, Cornell clinches the Ivy and the first auto bid of the year.

I did this on Monday, so a few things have changed since then, but here's what I had: Representing: Iowa State Locks (28): Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida St., Clemson Washington, UCLA, Arizona St., Cal Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri Michigan St., Illinois, Purdue LSU Utah Xavier Memphis Butler Gonzaga Under Consideration (38): BC, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL) Arizona, USC, Washington St. Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Providence Texas, Oklahoma St., Kansas St., Texas A&M, Nebraska, Baylor Wisconsin, Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida BYU, San Diego St., UNLV, New Mexico Dayton, Rhode Island Creighton Utah St. Saint Mary's Siena Davidson

I didn't think Miami losing @GT would be topped tonight, but Kentucky losing at home vs Georgia just did it. Edit: Florida lost to Miss State as well, and LSU lost to Vandy. Not a good night for the SEC.