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haltz

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Everything posted by haltz

  1. haltz
    From looking at his spray chart coupled with BRef's BIP data, it seems like he hit 54% of his fly balls at home. If he put those balls on the ground it would result in like 3 more hits and one less XBH or something. Nothing that really changes his value much.
  2. haltz
    From 2004-2007, Greene put up away sOPS+'s of 136, 108, 128, and 123. That's about 1,100 plate appearances. Anyway, you don't have to dismiss half the sample. He has a career .262 EqA and plays solid defense. That's a good shortstop even if there's nothing going on that a park adjustment doesn't account for.
  3. haltz
    It's a rate version of equivalent runs (EqR), which is a linear weights-type measurement. It's similar to wOBA, which is made to mimic the scale of OBP instead of BA. If you are looking for specifics, check out Tango's sabermetric wiki. David Grabiner's Sabermetric Manifesto is a good overview.
  4. haltz
    Reyes: 9 Hanley: 8 Kinsler: 7 Pujols has just 6 but hasn't played in 90% of the games this year. He went 43 games to start the year getting on base at least once. Randy Winn of all people has the second highest streak at 34 games. He's at 13 games without reaching base by a hit or a walk on the year. That's just spot checking the game logs for the ones that seemed obvious on the TOB leaderboard. I also could've easily miscounted. Could be others, but Theriot's right up there.
  5. haltz
    That's a bad year for him too. He's had better years, but if you adjust for park it's right around his career rates. He's a very good player considering his defense, but he's not elite. Soriano/Beltran money sounds about right.
  6. haltz
    Weird. How does BIS collect their pitch data?
  7. haltz
    Gallagher is more projectable and has a fraction of the service time.
  8. haltz
    They both know there's a pretty good chance he hits the DL, hence the package sent Oakland's way and the inclusion of Gaudin. They both know about the dead arm and the velocity and have seen all the same medical reports. The Cubs are in a position where these players don't matter too much and they have a championship window, and Beane can stockpile some more cost-controlled talent. Harden could also pitch like an ace for a year and a half. The Cubs can take that chance pretty easily here. I honestly think this was a pretty good trade for both teams.
  9. haltz
    When 76 is the denominator, this is essentially useless information. I believe they aren't particularly high, I'd just be skeptical of it dropping 70 points in 430 at-bats and that being real. His numbers aren't surprising aside from his K-rate (which is how he's posted more normal slash stats for him with a .237 BABIP). A backup catcher with decent ISO numbers and a good arm is a good idea.
  10. haltz
    ERA+ last year: 100 ERA+ this year: 107 (before tonight) Absolutely crazy in half a season with a league-leading defense.
  11. haltz
    It adjusts within a league, it doesn't compare the two. Two parks in different leagues could both have a .800 lgOPS, but the batters and pitchers could be better in one or the other and the stat would have no idea. Ramirez is absolutely better than Crede though.
  12. haltz
    .241/.347/.402, which doesn't look all that great until you consider that the last two years he was at .194/.317/.346 and .148/.240/.272, and he is a 34 year old catcher. Maybe Mozeliak doesn't think a .215 BABIP over 350 AB is predictive.
  13. haltz
    Through 78 innings last year, Looper had a 4.12 ERA. That's about where he is now. He ended up with a 4.82 ERA last year (and missed 18 days halfway through). For his career, he's about a run worse as a starter than as a reliever. That's about what the prevailing sabermetric opinion is on the difference between starting and relieving. So he's doing about what you'd expect 2007+2008, and could very well fade in the second half for conditioning reasons or whatever.
  14. haltz
    The "past years" hitters haven't managed a 100 OPS+ between them. Yeah, they overachieved (I still don't get Taguchi), but three role-players with a collective 90 OPS+ or whatever is what all the fuss is about? Weaver had a 5.18 ERA with the Cardinals and a really good postseason.
  15. haltz
    So Taguchi?
  16. haltz
    You expect any less? I honestly wasn't sure if he said it once or again after the replay. I'm only half-paying attention. But no, not really. Edmonds has a wrist tattoo that says "DK57" I believe.
  17. haltz
    Did Joe Morgan just repeat himself that it's a hit either way, even after the replay showed Cabrera playing on top of 2B?
  18. haltz
    You could ridicule most of them. Ludwick and Schumaker are past their 90th percentile PECOTA lines, but he even managed to pick out the least surprising of their stats.
  19. haltz
    Maury Wills in 1962 (.293 EqA). He was a valuable player that year thanks to his gaudy stolen base numbers, but Frank Robinson, Willie Mays and Hank Aaron all had EqAs of .340. Dick Groat 1960 - .284 EqA. Willie Mays gets screwed again (.338). He wasn't even the best SS that year. Maybe the writers thought he played great defense? Nope, Banks (.310) won the Gold Glove that year. I think the worst is Marty Marion 1944. He was a below average hitter (though not for his position and he supposedly played great defense) that year with a .256 EqA and not even close to the best player on that Cardinals team. Catcher Walker Cooper had a .305 EqA, and Stan Musial had one of the best seasons of his career (.355), among others.
  20. haltz
    Is this according to WARP3? The DT fielding numbers despise Chipper Jones, which is why he has a similar career value to Scott Rolen according to that metric. UZR has him at +15 from 2003-2007 (3B only). Totalzone says -18 for his career. FRAA? -174! He's no gold glover, but please. As for hitting, here's the OPS+ leaderboard for 8,000 PA and 60% (to include Brett) at 3B. George Brett played about 1,000 games at non-3B positions. Mainly 1B and DH. He hasn't hit his decline phase yet, but right now his (adjusted for all-time) EqA is #1 among third baseman, edging out Schmidt and Mathews by percentage points. His HOF worthiness is a no-brainer.
  21. haltz
    The guy playing CF for the Cubs is right there with him at the least: EqA BRAA BtRuns Edmonds .303 379 319 Williams .300 418 311 According to Sean Smith's totalzone, Edmonds has been about 130 runs better on defense over their careers (not including this year). That's not the end-all, but it's better than FRAA and most people would say Williams wasn't much of a defender, especially towards the end of his career. At the very least, Jim has twice as many outfield assists. Edmonds kept his EqA1 above .320 for five straight years, and Bernie has four rings, which the writers at least will care about. Bernie also had a longer career and I used above average metrics there on purpose. Neither one are a whole lot different than Duke Snider.
  22. haltz
    It's the signing date. Vitters could be a PTBNL though.
  23. haltz
    FWIW, he had a .947 OPS against righties in 2006. He was pretty banged up last year and that dropped to .755. He could absolutely be toast despite his hot month (or half a month), but an .800 OPS in a platoon situation at Wrigley isn't that far-fetched.
  24. haltz
    I seriously don't have a problem with saying that Ankiel cheated, pre-ban or not. He received shipments from a prescription mill that was shut down. It's not something that's on the up and up.
  25. haltz
    Am I arguing that? It apparently wasn't banned so he couldn't have been suspended, no matter how despicable you think it is. And I don't care if you do. That's perfectly fine. Wolf's right that this isn't the place and I didn't make my point well, but that's definitely not what I'm arguing.
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