haltz

How is this a really good contract? One year of free agency at $11M and a $12M option for 2012. They probably didn't save money in arbitration, and they've got a guy who projects at a .260 EQA and average defense for his age 27 year, signed for $11 million in his age 30 year. It's not the end of the world since it's a pre-arb deal and inherently hard to really overpay, but the Red's leverage here has just allowed them to save money on an inflated value I guess.

Since a HBP is worth slightly more than a BB which is worth more than an IBB, shouldn't it be separated out that way? If so, have you worked on improving EqA? Is it just diminishing returns (or would it be a good thing at all) to make the values of the coefficients a little more precise? Even though the 5 changes, how well does it handle different run environments considering, e.g., that the ratio of a walk to a single always stays the same?

I thought Ensberg had signed a major league contract. When was the last time a guy had a projected .290 EqA and signed a minor league deal? Josh Phelps is coming to camp with the Cardinals.

I actually did know that VORP is a different replacement level, and WARP is based around BR. But it's what's on the PECOTA sheet and it's close enough. I still don't understand how you can have a separate replacement level for hitting and fielding. It would make it way too low. Maybe you just explained that and I'm not following you. What's your beef with it then? EDIT: Actually, I see what you are saying.

WARP thinks that the difference between an average 2B and a replacement level 2B in terms of fielding runs is about 28. Last year year for Roberts anyway. He get a 30 VORP for his projected .293 EQA and 3 full wins for being an average defender. It's really stupid. Nobody gets a cup of coffee that's -30 fielding and a .225 EQA hitter. WARP is [expletive]. And yes, it projects Roberts to get something like 170 more plate appearances than DeRosa.

They traded for Santana, Nathan, Silva, Bonser, Liriano, and Ortiz among others I guess. I'm talking about perception anyway.

their success was primarily because of one move. Yes, and the Cardinals have somewhat lucked into success as well. My point is that they aren't a sabermetric team, but they (at least they think they are) are good at recognizing and developing amateur talent.

The problem was they were willing to give up Hughes a month and a half ago so that's not entirely true. I don't think they were. And if they were then, they aren't now, or Bill Smith is [expletive]. Well Bill Smith clearly screwed this situation up. I mean have you looked at his offseason? It sure seems like he did, but if the Yankees turned down an offer for Kennedy and Cabrera, doesn't that speak more to the situation (like ever wanting to give up Hughes), than what Smith has done? I mean, Ellsbury's not exactly the second coming, no matter what the fanboys in Boston think. Was Boston really going to give up him and Lowrie and Lester and Masterson (or whatever it was)? I think it was just a bunch of posturing, and Smith had to settle for an offer that was worth something along the lines of the excess value of Santana (marginal wins + superstar premium/playoff sweet spot money - $150 million) and it really wasn't all that much. Or Smith could have overplayed his hand and completely screwed the dog. But then why did the offers suck so much just one month later in the same offseason? I'm not saying that Bill Smith isn't an idiot, it just doesn't quite add up to me. Besides, the Twins always do weird stuff because they think they are talent evaluating geniuses and are operating on a different level.

The problem was they were willing to give up Hughes a month and a half ago so that's not entirely true. I don't think they were. And if they were then, they aren't now, or Bill Smith is [expletive].

He's almost as good as Peavy though. Whatever analogy you want to make, it's still value. I'm not surprised that teams weren't willing to give up a can't-miss guy just to pay Santana what he's worth (or a little less).

Do I think they care? Sure, but that's not why I think they were just fine with Santana going to the Mets. If I had to guess, I'd say it's partly the length, partly some new ideology from Cashman, and the fact that they aren't getting that much value for their young players if Santana is going to get a near-market value extension anyway. It's one thing to pay a premium for one year of one pitcher, but another if they have long term goals to try and keep that sort of thing to a minimum anyway. Who knows, but the Clemens thing doesn't mean that they want to commit to that for seven years.

There wasn't a luxury tax until the 2003 CBA was there?

THT has a good glossary. I'm not sure how much non-BP members can see but Baseball Prospectus has a glossary as well. Also, wikipedia is a pretty good source. Or just google stuff. The interwebs are your friend. If you really want to learn stuff perusehttp://www.insidethebook.com Also check out the reference page at SOSH. http://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/wiki/index.php/Statistical_Reference_Page Read other team's blogs also. USS Mariner, Viva El Birdos etc. Find the blogs of the guys that write for THT and BP. There's also Baseball Think Factory, but outside of the HOM and Transaction Oracle, it's largely steroid garbage and political discussions. And just ask when you have a question about something. Here or at any of those sites. Willful ignorance and axe-grinding turns off stats types, but open-mindedness and honest questions are almost always welcome anywhere.

Because a major part of OBP is batting average. Khalil hits .230 at home and .280 on the road for park effect reasons. It's spacious, he's a fly ball hitter, etc. The OBP will fluctuate accordingly. He'll make less outs outside of Petco.

If Granderson hadn't fallen down he'd have two doubles, and a .320/.360/.410 line or something for the series. Rolen and Molina legitimately raked. Tomy is right of course about Eckstein, but his fielding dropped off precipitously last year. That's the reason that the Cardinals didn't offer him arbitration or want him back. A .263 EQA is fine for a shortstop, especially one that the internal metrics at the time (UZR) liked. He dropped to one of the worst SS in the NL according to that metric last year. Could be an aberration or he could be falling off a cliff as an older and oft-injured middle infielder.

"We" (normal people) think this sort of petty clarification is annoying. Everyone gets it, dude. Pick another battle or something. And of course it doesn't imply that someone thinks they have some choice in the matter. I seriously don't know what it is about message boards that turns people into officious literalists (sounds familiar). Everyone knows that it's a statement of fan affiliation, and that's it.

I really hope it's only the on-the-field guys that feel this way, because if Mozeliak thinks Miles and Izturis are a step towards winning the division then we're in big trouble.

It's against the rules for anyone to wear a mitt that isn't a catcher or first baseman. 1.12; 1.13; 1.14

I seriously did consider that.

Aaron Miles is unfortunately still part of the organization. Anyway, this is really stupid. I can see LaRussa sending Barton back to Cleveland because Juan guesses right on two fastballs off a fringe reliever.

Park factors are useful and not just at the extremes, and FP% is not a good way to judge defense. I'm not really going overboard here, or anything "way"*4. Anyway, I know he knows what he's talking about. We've had this conversation before. I'd like to see some numbers and I'm curious about SLGBIP in general. We do know the Brewers defense was really bad, and the DIPS numbers are meaningful.

I don't think anyone put up a fight last time.