Little Slide Rooter

As I stated above, the "experts" don't know squat. Ken Rosenthal (Foxsports) has the White Sox winning the World Series. I wouldnt call it outrageous. Far fetched, yes, but outrageous, no. That team has a lot of depth. I dont think they're nearly as goos as the Red Sox, or even the Mariners, but its a pretty good team. Picking up Pierre, Jones, and Teahen isnt too different from picking up Dye, Pierzynski, and Podsednik in the '04-'05 offseason, and that worked out pretty well for them. They have a solid team for the 2010 season, just not one built to compete much longer after that.

Assuming a repeat of 2009, with Aramis missing more than half the season and Soriano and Soto both sucking, then yes, I could see the Cubs falling to 4th, maybe 5th. If not, and Aramis is healthy, and we get strong rebounds from Soriano or Soto, I think we'll be contending. Sure, the Cards looks nice on paper, but they have a lot of X factors as well. Sure, Pujols/Holliday, if not the best is one of the top 3 3-4s in the league, but beyod that, there are a lot of ?s. What to expect from Ludwick. What to expect from Rasums. Will Ryan Franklin even approach 2009? Can Brad Penny stay healthy? If so, can he give them what Pinearo did last year? Can Carpenter stay healthy most of the season? While their 3-4 hitters and 1-2 starting pitchers are among the best in the league, they really dont have a lot of depth beyond that. Lugo was their best bat and they sent him to BaItimore for a Coke and a smile. I wouldnt count out the Brewers, although I see them as dark horses at best but I really dont see it with the Reds. They pretty much look like the same team they had last year+ Aaron Miles, which automatically makes them a few games worse.

I know they are talking right now,but as far as next ofseason goes, assume Lilly is gone after this year, and we lose Aramis and/or Lee. Then, we are left rebuilding, and in which case, moving Fukudome for the right salary relief sounds like the right way to go. Lets face it, the Nats aint going to compete this year, so Fukudome makes no sense for them unless we eat more than a lions share of the contract, which makes no sense for us, unless of course Strasburg is in the equation which isnt even a remote possibility without Castro, Cashner, Vitters, Jackson and then some thrown in. However, a month or so down the line, if Colvin proves that if nothing else, hes a viable 4th outfielder and the Nats still need a right fielder, Nady could be a possibility.

The cutting of Cust seems a bit weird but Fox and him are redundant. Fox is a bit better defensively, more versatile, younger with lots of potential and likely to be able to do the great power and nothing else that Cust has done for a couple years. Fox could do much better than Cust but at the minimum Fox should be able to do what Cust has done in recent years so why keep a guy like Cust who can really only DH on the team and eating a roster spot? Fox hasn't been good this Spring but in the last couple games he started hitting and knocking the ball out so I'm guessing that is why Cust is being released now. I believe the real question is why, after aquiring Fox and Kouzmanoff, did they bother resigning Cust to begin with? Its almost as though Beane was taking money wasting advice from Jim Hendry.

I mentioned this briefly in another post. The A's must really like Fox if they were willing to eat Custs new 2.5 million dollars to keep him on board. Foxes ST line was .151/.224/.321.

In other former AAAA Cubs news, despite a .151/.224/.321 ST line, Jake Fox beat out Jack Cust for the job of 1 dimensional power hitter for the A's. Cust was DFAd.

I dont know if there any validity to this whatsoever, but its an Interesting thought. I guess the roadblock is that they would want us to pick up a big chunk of his contract, and hed only be worth moving if they were to pick up a big chunk. However, if Tyler Colvin were to prove that hes the real deal in 2010, Id definitely be up for it next offseason if theyd pick up a reasonable amount of Kosukes 2011 bill.

I'm not sure I buy it. I'm sure he's had a great spring but once the season starts and pitchers aren't working on perfecting their stuff and are more concerned with getting outs and winning games, if Colvin keeps up his insane BABIP, pitchers will stop pitching to him. And when they do that, will Colvin actually take a walk, something he hasn't done all spring? While I largely agree with you, I must add that in the games I have followed this spring, Colvin has done a good job of working counts. He hasn't drawn a single walk, but he does seem willing to take pitches in order to place himself in a favorable position to get a hittable pitch. I realize this is purely anecdotal evidence (to the extent that it is evidence at all), but I am reluctantly finding myself in the "Maybe Colvin is For Real" camp. That BABIP is tough to shrug off, though. Even if Colvin ends up a .280/.325-.350/.425-.450 15-20 home run type of guy, its better than paying a multi year contract to a similar player. Nothing against Marlon Byrd, whose had a solid spring and I know its hindsight, but if we knew then what we know now, we could have had a solid out field depth chart without him and saved a nice chunk of change. LF Soriano Colvin CF Colvin Fuld Fukudome RF Fukudome Nady Tracy

Good point. If someone gets tired, send them down. Only problem is that there isn't really another position player that this team just has to have on the roster. I would lean toward another IF, but just traded the only backup SS. That is true, but you have to know you have this many quality candidates going in, so you plan the roster around a 6 man pen and maybe add a FA bench bat. Or take on a Rule 5 hitter. I agree that now there's not a terrible difference in Russell v. Hoffpauir(or whoever would've gotten the spot). I'm actually fine with this approach. It's basically just as much of a crap shoot bringing up raw talent (inexperienced at the major league level) from the minors to secure bullpen roster spots as it is to sign veteran middle inning relievers to a 2 or 3 year deal, except it's way cheaper. There is no guarantee that Marmol, Marshall and Grabow will be more effective than the kids. I'm not sure I like the idea of sitting Colvin on the bench daily, considering he still has some weaknesses at the plate that need to be addressed with regular playing time. I probably would have gone with Fuld in that spot, and am assuming that it will only be a matter of time before Lou switches them up. I'm guessing it's only a temporary thing to reward his hot spring. Fuld is organizational depth. Colvin is someone they are counting on to contribute in a big way. He's going to get some playing time for the first month of the season. He'll probably play 3 times per week. But what happens if he plays 3 times/week for that first month and stays hot? we dont send him down because its not his time.

I dont see why. Judging by last year and his spring training numbers this year, thats where he belongs, for now anyway. If he shows any signs that they 2008 Geo is somewhere in there, Im sure they'll bump him up, especially if Marlon Byrd and Mike Fontenot struggle.

Maybe if theyd gone with Mike Fontenot or Sean Marshall they would have turned some heads, but come on now.

The problem is that you can't go into a season waiting to see who you can scrape off of the scrap heap at the last minute. You have to start defining bullpen roles well before April. Id rather scrape one of those guys off the scrap heap in april than give a run of the mill left reliever an $8 million contract in December.

There are some recent free agent relievers out there who are intriguing. Pat Misch, Brian Schouse, and Seth McClung would all be worth taking flyers out on. While this is not so much an endorsement not to give guys like Berg, Russel, and Caridad a shot, it is an endorsement why not to give big contracts to guys like Grabow.

I think they were also doing Blanco a favor. He had no future with the organization, but liked the guy and knew the Rangers were looking for a utility guy and they figured theyd send him where he has a chance.

So who gets tht 25th and final spot? Sam Fuld: Doubtful. With 5 guys already on the team who strictly play outfield, we dont need another, especially after his pitiful spring training. Micah Hoffpauir: Probably not. Lou loves vets, and has 2 in line for the job. Also, both Tracy and Millar can play more positions than Hoff. Kevin Millar: After a nice start to the offseason, he kind of fell off. Hes not getting any younger and is injury prone. My Pick: Chad Tracy: Hes younger than Millar, though just as injury prone, however, hes a lefty, which Lou loves and if he has a strong showing in 2010, who knows, maybe if Aramis bails after the season, he can stick around a bit longer, hopefully just until Vitters is ready to go.

Not really. He's fairly accurate. The only requirement for making the HOF ballot is 10 years of service time. Since the ballot isn't flooded year after year, the vast majority of guys don't accumulate 10 years of service time. I'd say that's not every player isn't it? To me, his statement implies that every player that actually does last 8+ years in the majors should be glad they were lucky enough to be in that tiny minority. I would agree with that statement. Even someone with the talents of Pujols can be derailed by injuries and not make it 8 years in the bigs. What I was trying to say is that guys who can hold their own offensively are more likely to have a longer career and big contracts, even if their defense is mediocre at best. On the other side of the coin, you can be great defensively, but if you cant hit, your lucky to hang around the big leagues. Sure, you may get a few spring training invites, or minor league contracts in case someone gets hurt, but your not going to get the big money, and your not as likely to be back with the same team the next year,Of course there are always the exceptions such as Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel, but I wonder what kind of contract even Ozzie Smith would be getting in this day and age.

I have to agree there. Dont get me wrong, I think the utility infield defensive specialists are very useful guys to have on your team, but theyre the middle relievers of the position player ranks. Rarely do they spend more than 3 years on the same team, and often are lucky to string together an 8 year major league career. There rarely going to get big contracts. The Miguel Cairos and Ramon Martinezes of the world are abundant. Head on over to the Dominican Rebublic, and I bet you can stock the farm with dozens of slick fielding short stops who will hit in the .220s and .230s.

Darwin Barney is supposed to be a good defensive SS, so I guess we could always go to him if we need an emergency backup. And theres always Castro.

Assuming that Nady starts the season on the DL, I guess its safe to assume that the bench is made up of Hill, Font/Baker, Colvin, Millar, and Tracy. Decent pop, but not much middle infield depth.

One of my all time favs was Clint Barmes falling down the stairs and breaking his collar bone carrying Todd Heltons groceries.

Because that's not his ceiling. He would have to change significantly for that to no longer be his ceiling. So I take it you haven't kept up much with this offseason? Putting on muscle doesn't change the fact that he's done crap in the minors and hasn't come close to showing any patience. I don't really care about media reports about what everybody does in the offseason to finally turn things around. 9 times out of 10 those efforst are meaningless. Prove it on the diamond. While Colvin was never steller in the minors, he was off to a promising start before lsoing 2008 to TJS. Its no inconceivable for someone like that to pull things together and become a productive member of the team. What does worry me is the complete lack of BB though.

Id defintiely take out a flyer on either one. See this is exactly why theres no reason to offer large contracts to middle releivers.

If they want to start out with Silva as the 5th starter, IM OK with that, especially considering all the money hes owed. I just hope his leesh isnt too long.

That's a good guess, and prolly the most likely. But Toronto is still scouting Cubs players so the Jason Frasor rumors won't die down, just yet. So I wouldn't write that bullpen in anything but pencil right now. If they'll take something like a Sam Fuld or Micah Hoffpauir type of thing, Id be glad to have Frasor, but Id prefer not give up anything of value for him, especially if the next step is a 3 year exension for him.

Hopefully Berg/Samardzija only last a few weeks and then Gray will be ready I like what Ive seen from Justin Berg so far, at least the small sample size. I have no reason to wish him out of town just yet. As for Samardzjia, I think that they just need to try to focus on one last shot of making him into a starter before finally giving up on him.