Little Slide Rooter

Is it so hard for you to comprehend that I simply think Fielder is a poor risk on a long-term deal? Is that concept too difficult to get your head around? It doesn't mean I don't want the Cubs to sign any elite players, ever. Sheesh. If you're talking true elite players, they're almost always going to require a 6-8 year deal, unless they're at the tail end of their prime, at least the way the market is constructed now. Also, more and more teams are locking up young star players long term, which is why so many people want to jump on Fielder. Who knows the next time an elite player at a young age is going to even hit the maket.

Nah, That's still Theriot. Neifis Goebals.

Oh [expletive] that, I'd send them Soto and LaHair in a heartbeat for either of those 2. Moreland strikes me as landing somewhere between James Loney and Gaby Sanchez at best which is blah for a 1st baseman. They've already stated they'd trade Davis or Niemann for a starting catcher and Sotos should do it and LaHair can be a throw in if they want a band aid 1st baseman.

This. Let's not sign Fielder, and we'll just stand pat and wait for the perfect situation which may never come. If Fielder's not worth a couple of possibly mediocre years at the end of a seven year deal, who is? He's 27 years old and entering his prime. We are likely to get at least 4-5 years of elite production out of him. I've seen a lot of bellyaching about how we shouldn't sign him because 1-2 mediocre years at the end of a contract are going to somehow cripple the Cubs in the future, but no alternate suggestions. If not Prince, who is going to pop up in the next few years as the long term solution at first base? I also find it interesting how the general attitude on this board toward getting Prince changed as soon as Theo took over. it changed because people thought theo was going to draft a million elite players and we wouldn't need to sign free agents. it goes back to the meatball idea of "building a team the right way", which is closely related to "playing the game the right way". sure, any team that's in contention year after year is going to have some home-grown starters, but if you are a big market team, you have the luxury of signing elite talent for elite money. Why would people think that? That's not what he did in Boston. He did in the end. When he first became GM, it was his 1st GM job so he couldn't just jump in and spend, spend, spend. 9 years later, he's one of the most respected execs in baseball and has a much longer leash than he did back then. If Ricketts didn't have full faith in Epstein, the negotiations probably would have ended as soon as Boston started with the ridiculous compensation requests.

This. Let's not sign Fielder, and we'll just stand pat and wait for the perfect situation which may never come. If Fielder's not worth a couple of possibly mediocre years at the end of a seven year deal, who is? He's 27 years old and entering his prime. We are likely to get at least 4-5 years of elite production out of him. I've seen a lot of bellyaching about how we shouldn't sign him because 1-2 mediocre years at the end of a contract are going to somehow cripple the Cubs in the future, but no alternate suggestions. If not Prince, who is going to pop up in the next few years as the long term solution at first base? I also find it interesting how the general attitude on this board toward getting Prince changed as soon as Theo took over. It's not that people wanted Fielder any less, it's that a lot felt that it didn't fit in with Theos plans so were more accepting the fact than not wanting him. To be honest, I'd offer a mid loaded 7 year deal where he gets the most money between years 3-5 so that it's less money the next 2 years when we're still paying Soriano, Z, and Demp and can still sign some starters when Z and Demp are gone but less money the last 2 years to make him more tradeable to an AL team where he can play out the twilight of the deal as a DH. The fact is, that if you're going to build a team from within you better have a damn good farm system, and I don't mean the handfull of high ceiling 17-19 years olds who may be the future of this franchise but may also never make it past AA. So his plan does not include an elite power hitter? That's just it. Nobody knows his plan. Could be Fielder. Could be Pena. could be LaHair. Maybe he's contemplating trading for Kendry Morales or Justin Morneau. Could be someone we havn't even thought of or hasn't even been born yet but Theo will travel into the future and bring him back . If the plan was to just sign Fielder or Pujols and a few other big name guys over the next few years, we wouldn't have had to put together the FO dream team to make it happen. These guys want to win now and in the future, and while Fielder certainly fits that mold they're not going to overpay for him. What this means to me is to pick up as many good, young players as possible through trade and FA. They're willing to pay but not overpay. With Fielder, I expect it to be around Christmas or later by the time he signs. While some people view him and Pujols as and/or, they're very different propositions. Fielders market is still shaping up and if he signs in the next week or 2 it suggests to me that someone jumped in and outbid themselves with a monster offer.

This. Let's not sign Fielder, and we'll just stand pat and wait for the perfect situation which may never come. If Fielder's not worth a couple of possibly mediocre years at the end of a seven year deal, who is? He's 27 years old and entering his prime. We are likely to get at least 4-5 years of elite production out of him. I've seen a lot of bellyaching about how we shouldn't sign him because 1-2 mediocre years at the end of a contract are going to somehow cripple the Cubs in the future, but no alternate suggestions. If not Prince, who is going to pop up in the next few years as the long term solution at first base? I also find it interesting how the general attitude on this board toward getting Prince changed as soon as Theo took over. It's not that people wanted Fielder any less, it's that a lot felt that it didn't fit in with Theos plans so were more accepting the fact than not wanting him. To be honest, I'd offer a mid loaded 7 year deal where he gets the most money between years 3-5 so that it's less money the next 2 years when we're still paying Soriano, Z, and Demp and can still sign some starters when Z and Demp are gone but less money the last 2 years to make him more tradeable to an AL team where he can play out the twilight of the deal as a DH. The fact is, that if you're going to build a team from within you better have a damn good farm system, and I don't mean the handfull of high ceiling 17-19 years olds who may be the future of this franchise but may also never make it past AA.

I think it's up to the Japanese team to accept a serious bid. An MLB team that does not negotiate in good faith will also damage its reputation. There should be some money at risk though, because otherwise, what's to stop someone likeTampa Bay or Toronto to offer an insane posting fee and then never offer a serious contract to block the Yankees and Red Sox.

My guess is that a low-mid market team will offer him a big league deal with a low base salary with incentives hoping that if nothing else he'll be a draw. I wouldn't be surprised if Billy Beanes on the line with his agent as we speak.

I don't think anyone ever compared Garza to Wells. The main comparison I remember was a RH Ted Lilly, though Lilly never really had Garzas stuff..

He'll also be 2 years younger than Daisuke when posted. He could potentially be a steal at 5/100. True, but the list of teams that can afford to hand out a 5/100 contract isn't a long one, and those who can hand it out with such a risk attached is even shorter. Obviously the Yankees would find a way if interested, probably the Red Sox and Rangers. Other teams like the Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Mariners could probably afford him, but I think that they're all in a position that if they were to give a player that kind of contract it needs to be closer to a sure thing and could be wiser to hang on to the money for next years pitching rich free agent class. Even the newly free spending Marlins, who likely have the money might prefer to dangle LoMo for someone like David Shields, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza, or John Danks. Of the Japanese phenoms since that became a big thing, Nomo, Irabu, Ichiro, both Matsuis, Daisuke, and Fukudome have been the big names. Of them, Ichiro and Hideki have lived up to the hype. Nomo had a great year or 2 and was serviceable for several years. Daisuke had 1 great year and a few OK years before getting hurt. Kosuke and Kaz were both serviceable but didnt live up to the hype. Irabu was a bust. There was also the guy the Dodgers signed in 2005 who was somewhat of a big deal but I think he got homesick or something and didnt make it through his first season. Kai Igawa was also a huge bust and still toiling in the Yankees system last I checked. Kenji Jojima, Hiroki Kuroda, Takashi Saito, and Hideki Okajima were also big names but not quite as high up as the top tier and all have had decent success, but aside from Kuroda fell off after a few years although Saito seems to have ressurected his career. There have been others who have been decent starters or role players. For the right price, it's a good idea to bring over players from Japan, but theres a reason why guys like Matt Murton and Larry Bigbie go there to become superstars and many others go there to attempt to resurrect failed-failing careers. While I'd be OK with taking the risk on Darvish, I can understand teams shying away.

So much for Billy approaching his players personally about trades as Moneyball suggests.

xFIP the last three years: cahill: 2009 - 4.86 2010 - 3.99 2011 - 3.90 wells: 2009 - 4.18 2010 - 3.94 2011 - 4.45 obviously cahill is younger, but he's already got a mature body and his fastball velocity really hasn't changed in the past 3 years, so he probably is what he is (rather than a guy you'd expect to keep improving through his mid to late 20s). his babip-fueled 2010 and pitching half his games in an extreme pitcher's park have him pretty overvalued... he's much more an innings-eating mid-rotation guy that the #2 that many people think he is. Dammit we could have got Jerrod Parker for Randy Wells. Stupid Hoyerstein.

The posting fee is only paid if the team reaches a contract with the player. And it's worth noting that Matsuzaka was rumored to be looking for something like 5/100 back when he was posted (and the winning bid was assumed to be closer to 25-30 million than the 50+ it ended up being). Gotcha. On one hand, Darvish seems more highly touted than Daisuke, but on the other hand, while not as colossal a failure as some consider him his overall mediocrity could be what scares teams away from a massive posting fee and contract.

Do you really not realize what carrying around an extra 80 pounds does to a body? Fielder may be 27, but his body has been stressed like a man much older than that. He is the oldest 27 year old you have ever seen. Luckily for Fielder, Lindsey Lohan is 2 years away from taking the title.

I'm assuming this has been addressed at one point but if a team pays the posting fee but can't reach a contract with the player to they lose that money anyway?

Wright and Youklis have club options. After them, there's a whole lot of bad unless youre interested in a 38 year old Scott Rolen. Some nice outfielders with Hamilton, Ethier, and Victorino, but the 2013 FA class is all about pitching. That's why this would be the year to make that offensive splash. Well there were no 3B this year either. Exactly, which is why it's well worth the risk. It also gives us another year to see if Vitters can still be the 3B of the future or if we need to look elsewhere for a long term answer.

Wright and Youklis have club options. After them, there's a whole lot of bad unless youre interested in a 38 year old Scott Rolen. Some nice outfielders with Hamilton, Ethier, and Victorino, but the 2013 FA class is all about pitching. That's why this would be the year to make that offensive splash.

Whatever. I'm already making plans to attend the "world's most cost-effective team" parade next year. The goal IS to put the best team you can out on the field each and every year. But, doing it at the expense of the future is stupid. Theo's not stupid. Nor have we missed out on ANYONE that can help both "in the now" and "in the future". If we miss out on Fielder, Darvish, and Cespedes, then I'll raise an eyebrow, but even then, we can still field a team capable of winning a very weakened division, such as ours is going to be. To be honest, if we didn't get one of those guys I don't think we could win the division, maybe even if we did. I said this last year, but if we were to compete, a lot of things would have to go right. I think next year will be a 2 horse race between Milwaukee and Cincy. However, the next year The Brewers are likely to lose at least one of Greinke and Marcum and the Reds could lose Votto. If between now and 2013 we could land Fielder, an ace, a mud rotation pitcher and 1 more decent bat in the outfield, 2nd, or 3rd, we'll be the favorites again. If Ian Stewart can figure things out that would be awesome too.

Ok, not a top prospect but a solid prospect package. It also depends on what you consider a top prospect. I think we could get a top prospect for Soto or Marshall, meaning someone in the back 25 or even 50 of the top 100. Best case scenario for DeJesus unless as the until recently MIA Truffle said has a massive breakout would be someone from the back end of some teams top 10 and a few younger guys.

I think they gave up way too much here, but I'm not going to compare Cahill to Wells. I know their stats are probably similar, but Cahill will be younger for the next couple of seasons than Wells was before he even made his debut in the bigs. Maybe if Wells hadn't caught for so long, I could see this as a good comp. But I do expect Cahill to still improve from here on out. But he's not worth Parker, not by any stretch. I have to say, it seems that to a lot of people on this board if a finesse pitcher isn't Greg Maddux their automatically Randy Wells or worse, but there's plenty of room in between. I remember the same arguement against Jair Jurrjens, since he's not a stuff guy that we don't want him. I'd be happy to get either Cahill or Jurrjens and think either would be the 2nd best guy in our rotation, and that's not a knock on Dempster and Zambrano.

Watching more enjoyable baseball with a higher emphasis on in-game strategy? disagree. Good Lord, yes. If the NL wasn't stupid and had the DH Aramis would be back next year. Ohhhhh, DH. I was wondering why we were trying to do away with the DL. Yeah, DH might be good to have. If nothing else it might be fun to sign guys like Vlad, Thome, or Matsui to 1/2.5 deals.

David DeJesus was kinda cool. I like him. That signing is still pretty meh to me. I don't hate it, and can see where DeJesus could provide decent value, just don't think he is going to make much of a difference. DeJesus will be a solid pickup assuming that we make some better moves. Seems like he'll give us the same production Kosuke gave us for less than half the price. However, if the plan is to build a team from within on a 3-5 year plan deJesus becomes kind of pointless at any price unless he has a great year this year and we trade him for a top prospect next winter.

On one hand, I'm glad we didnt send the D Backs Garza if we wouldnt get Bauer or Skaggs but on the other hand, I wish we could have acquired Trevor Cahill for a reasonable price. I blame Ian Stewart and Jeff Bianchi. They threw a wrench in our entire offseason.

Yes, our 2012 opening day 1B would have been Tyler Colvin... That's pretty dumb. I don't see how the two were intertwined. Probably just baseless guessing. T assumption is that the person who wrote this is stupid.

Numbers: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Jeff-Bianchi A LeMahieu by any other name. Looks like 2011 was his return from TJS, so apparently the Cubs are taking a flier to see if he can return to his pre TJS numbers. On first glance, can't see his future as much more than a backup middle infielder though. Waiting for Kyle to take issue with this one. Surely it will ruin us somehow.