Backtobanks
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Everything posted by Backtobanks
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I'm pretty happy with the way they handled most of the roster. If you set aside the Ian Stewart debate and give them a bit of a pass because there's pretty much nothing out there at 3b, then everything else was handled pretty well. They put together plenty of adequate depth in the rotation, outfield and bullpen. I still wish we had signed Keppinger. Yeah, I posted a long time ago that Keppinger would have been a good signing to fill 3B until Vitters/Lake/Baez could take over. Also, he could provide some backup at SS, 2B, or 1B if needed.
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Trading Soriano
Backtobanks replied to ctcf's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I think it was just Northern California/Giants, due to the potentially cool weather at night which he didn't think would be good for his knees/joints. San Francisco's brutally cool weather at night is worse than Chicago, NY, or Philadelphia? -
Yeah, there have been improvements made in most areas, but the offense needs another bat. Stewart and/or Jackson could go a long way to solving that problem for the next one or two years.
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The 2012 Offseason Thread
Backtobanks replied to ctcf's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
He played 2B (80+ games) at the beginning of his career, but basically has only played OF for the rest of his career. -
I would expect Soriano or DeJesus might get moved too, but there wouldn't be much Schierholtz could do about be moved to the bench if they weren't.
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Met Mr. Cub tonight the one and only Ernie Banks!
Backtobanks replied to Gmoney08's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
My first Cub "hero", hence my user name. -
The 2012 Offseason Thread
Backtobanks replied to ctcf's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Yeah, it seems to me that we were trying to spin a deal around Soriano + $$$ for Porcello not too long ago. If that's the best we can do for Garza, then we need to wait until he proves he's healthy. -
Sometimes your arguments make some sense, but when you say things haven't gone their way since maybe 2008, you do have to wonder about "variation". Four coin flips of heads in a row isn't that shocking. 4 heads in a row is a 6% chance. Of course that doesn't figure in 100 years of not winning the WS. LOL I'm honestly not even sure what you're trying to say any longer. You seem to be implying that Kyle's entire analysis is flawed because he wrote one sentence saying they MAY have been having bad luck since 2008 (four flips ending with worse than average luck). With 30 MLB teams, a 6% chance means there are better than even odds that at least one team is riding such a streak. What you are trying to imply with your last sentence I can't even begin to guess. Actually I'm agreeing with Kyle about making bad decisions rather than "things not going our way" for the last 4 years. As for the "odds that at least one team is riding such a streak", I'm sure there are many teams' GMs and fans that would use "things not going our way" for the last 4 years as an excuse. I threw in the last sentence (jokingly) as an example of not always trusting chance.
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No, they can't. Every team has some bad things happen. The Cubs have had an unusual concentration of them the last two years. Not historically unlucky or anything, they've just come out on the short end of the variation stick a few times. The Cardinals didn't have any such seasons last year. For the rest of the NL Central, the closest similar situations for 2012 I can find is maybe Stubbs, Morgan and Barmes. The Cubs certainly could have been better with better decisions, but the variance has unquestionably (among the sane) not swung their way since probably 2010, maybe 2008. Sometimes your arguments make some sense, but when you say things haven't gone their way since maybe 2008, you do have to wonder about "variation". Four coin flips of heads in a row isn't that shocking. 4 heads in a row is a 6% chance. Of course that doesn't figure in 100 years of not winning the WS. LOL
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No, they can't. Every team has some bad things happen. The Cubs have had an unusual concentration of them the last two years. Not historically unlucky or anything, they've just come out on the short end of the variation stick a few times. The Cardinals didn't have any such seasons last year. For the rest of the NL Central, the closest similar situations for 2012 I can find is maybe Stubbs, Morgan and Barmes. The Cubs certainly could have been better with better decisions, but the variance has unquestionably (among the sane) not swung their way since probably 2010, maybe 2008. Sometimes your arguments make some sense, but when you say things haven't gone their way since maybe 2008, you do have to wonder about "variation".
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I'm not sure you would have enough chips left for Felix or Price after trading for Upton.
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Brian Wilson?
Backtobanks replied to indycub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
It's hard to believe we could get him on a decent contract when he's got 5 teams interested in him. -
I can't see us getting real close to .500 unless they get someone to help the offense or somebody outperforms what is expected. at least kyle shows his reasoning and tries to back up his claims. all you ever say is "i don't think they'll be .500 because i dont think they'll be .500" I'm sorry, I thought we were allowed to express our opinions on this site. Looking at Kyle's post he "can't shake the feeling that this team is really close to .500" which sounds alot like his opinion until the "real projection systems start coming out."
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I can't see us getting real close to .500 unless they get someone to help the offense or somebody outperforms what is expected.
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It's relevant to the discussion we were having if you read the posts before you posted.
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I understand what you're getting at, but I don't really see it that way. Overall what matters is the net effect a given player has on your team. Obviously, there are cases where you can cover up one guy's deficiencies (i.e. maybe a super awesome CF can cover for the guys next to him), but by and large, what matters is how many net runs that player gets you. Doesn't really matter where it happens (although, obviously, with offensive metrics being more reliable, offense is easier to predict/measure the effect of). You may not see it that way, but I'm sure most of the GMs do. Most of the DHs in the AL were playing regularly somewhere in the field before they became a DH. And this is relevant because....? Most of them are (and have been) one dimensional players their whole careers. The Adam Dunns of the world were butchers at every position they ever played.
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I understand what you're getting at, but I don't really see it that way. Overall what matters is the net effect a given player has on your team. Obviously, there are cases where you can cover up one guy's deficiencies (i.e. maybe a super awesome CF can cover for the guys next to him), but by and large, what matters is how many net runs that player gets you. Doesn't really matter where it happens (although, obviously, with offensive metrics being more reliable, offense is easier to predict/measure the effect of). You may not see it that way, but I'm sure most of the GMs do. Most of the DHs in the AL were playing regularly somewhere in the field before they became a DH.
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Okay, but roster decisions don't happen in such a vacuum. You mean teams don't sign players that are very good offensively, but are weak on defense (or vice versa)? I would think there are probably 1-2 positional starters on most teams that would fit that description. No. He means that both things matter. Of course both matter, but if your team is weak offensively, then you might sacrifice some defense to fill a spot offensively (or vice versa). The Cubs have done a good job of adding pitching, but most of that pitching is not going to hold other teams to 1 or 2 runs. Their offense needs to be upgraded if they are going to translate stronger and deeper pitching into wins.
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Okay, but roster decisions don't happen in such a vacuum. You mean teams don't sign players that are very good offensively, but are weak on defense (or vice versa)? I would think there are probably 1-2 positional starters on most teams that would fit that description.
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My post about Swisher was purely thinking offense rather than defense because the offense is still pretty pathetic. Obviously, signing Swisher isn't going to happen, but it would certainly be a good fit offensively.
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Perfect? As what, a RF? RF, middle of the order power bat, sub for Rizzo at 1B, great OBP.
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I know he's way to expensive and too old, but Nick Swisher would be the perfect fit for this team.
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It's nice to have some depth rather than Raley/Rusin/Vostad/Coleman for the rotation. As you mentioned, you need to have the depth when you have a few starters with injury histories.
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2013 Mock Offseason Thread
Backtobanks replied to davell's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Fom MLBTR: The Orioles have spoken with at least six teams about possible trades, Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com reports. The Orioles are seeking a middle of the order bat, but aren't willing to trade their best prospects to obtain one. While there's some interest in pitchers such as Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton, there are indications the Orioles wouldn't want to trade more than one of them. Plus, their trade value isn't particularly high. Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#sE7KrrFg4axzAmF9.99 How about a deal with the Orioles: Soriano + Vitters + $$$$ for Tillman + Betemit. Soriano gives them a DH/ middle of the order bat, while Betemit gives us a platoon 3B/utility IF (including a little experience at 1B). Adding Tillman gives us another option for the rotation now and in the future. -
I've posted before saying that I don't see much (if any) improvement over last year's team at this point. Obviously a big trade or FA signing changes any projections for 2013, but most trade proposals would probably lower this year's win total and hopefully add to the future win totals. Right now I'm thinking somewhere around 65-67 wins.