Backtobanks

All of the discussion about Fielder producing more than Ramirez are forgetting the production of Pena. As was stated earlier, the combination of Fielder + Baker/Flaherty (or whoever) is not much of an improvement (if any) over Pena + Ramirez. Personally, I think Ramirez will sign an extension with a hometown discount. Hopefully it will only be for 2 years.

If ever there were a time to experiment with guys like Flaherty, LeMahieu, or even Vitters, 2012 would be the time. Even if we were to sign Fielder and Wilson, and leave the rest of the team as is, we'd be able to compete, in the .500 with a fighting chance in a weak division sense of the word, that's about the best we could expect from next years team. If Ramirez were to move on, this would be the time to try out these guys, rather than a bargain basement FA like Betmit or Blake, or even banking on Jeff Baker to be something other than Jeff Baker. The Cubs will not be rebuilding, so Flaherty/LeMahieu/Vitters isn't going to work at 3B. Losing Ramirez/Pena and adding Fielder/Baker (or Baker platoon) does nothing for the offense especially with Soriano and Byrd a year older. Also, everyone seems to think that it's a sure thing we will get Wilson this offseason and I'm not sure that will be the case. All those other teams with money to spend see the same positive attributes in Wilson that we see and some of them may not be talking $20-$25 million per year for a 1B and more than $12 million to dump a disgruntled pitcher (or take back a similar bad contract). Please find one post in which someone says anything about Wilson being a sure thing? There are quite a few posts that state "sign Fielder/Pujols and Wilson", "let Ramirez walk and use the money for Wilson and Fielder/Pujols", etc. as if we get to choose which FAs to sign. My point is that we have a lot of money to spend, but also a lot of holes to fill (1B, 3B, Zambrano/other bad contract, etc.). Some other team with much less money may decide that they're going to spend it all in one place (LH starting pitcher). Also, some players may leave a little money on the table to play for a winning organization or a better personal situation (part of the country, better pitcher's/hitter's park, etc.).

If I were GM looking for a good deal on a pitcher, I would certainly inquire about Zambrano. You would have all of the leverage in the deal and would be getting a solid #3 or #4 starter. A change of scenary with a manager and front office that are more strict, combined with lower expectations, could result in a rebound year. With the Cubs probably eating 70% or more of his contract, it would seem to be a low risk/high reward possibility.

If ever there were a time to experiment with guys like Flaherty, LeMahieu, or even Vitters, 2012 would be the time. Even if we were to sign Fielder and Wilson, and leave the rest of the team as is, we'd be able to compete, in the .500 with a fighting chance in a weak division sense of the word, that's about the best we could expect from next years team. If Ramirez were to move on, this would be the time to try out these guys, rather than a bargain basement FA like Betmit or Blake, or even banking on Jeff Baker to be something other than Jeff Baker. The Cubs will not be rebuilding, so Flaherty/LeMahieu/Vitters isn't going to work at 3B. Losing Ramirez/Pena and adding Fielder/Baker (or Baker platoon) does nothing for the offense especially with Soriano and Byrd a year older. Also, everyone seems to think that it's a sure thing we will get Wilson this offseason and I'm not sure that will be the case. All those other teams with money to spend see the same positive attributes in Wilson that we see and some of them may not be talking $20-$25 million per year for a 1B and more than $12 million to dump a disgruntled pitcher (or take back a similar bad contract).

The thinking for me behind going after a top of the rotation guy is that our system is full of 3-5 type starters who should be ready within the next couple or three years. Much like the reasoning for going after a premiere bat, a top of the rotation pitcher is something the system simply won't produce for the next few years (maybe Ben Wells is our next best shot). It almost seems like a waste of money/prospects to pursue a non-TOR guy since we've got so many of them nearly ready in the minors. If we're going to spend big money, it should be on something we won't have anytime soon - a legit TOR guy. And the benefit to Wilson specifically is that going by the mileage on his arm, it's like signing a guy in his mid-20s. He's only been starting for 2 seasons now. The real question is what we can afford. Ramirez plus Pujols/Fielder probably puts us out of the Wilson bidding. Re-signing Pena and Ramirez should leave lots of money for Wilson.

I'm not sure of the exact percentages, but I'd say you're not far off. I'm not arguing we won't see a dropoff from Aramis to a Baker/Flaherty platoon, I'm arguing that that dropoff will be less than the increase we get going from McNutt/Whitenack/Struck/Cashner/middling FA/whoever to CJ Wilson. And that Wilson provides us with much more long term value than Aramis does. Being the best FA starter, I'm a little worried about the cost/years that Wilson may command. I think the best route for pitching might be through a trade. We don't match up with some of these teams tradewise, but the early speculation is that names like Shields, Floyd, and Jurrjens might be available. We might have to get a third team involved. :yahoo: None of of those three really inspire me. They're good pitchers for sure, but they'd cost prospects as well as money and years. I'd much rather overpay for Wilson in money and years than overpay for a non-ace in prospects then money and years. I still think that Wilson at 5/80-100 would be a coup as far as the Cubs adding talent. He's legit, and would become a fan favorite quickly. He as Garza have the same bulldog mentality that I fn love in a pitcher. CJ Wilson IMO is going to age as well as any pitcher in baseball. He's just hitting his stride. I think other teams probably see what you see in him, so I think the bidding may very well go over 5/100 mark. While it would be great to get a #1 or #2 starter, a #3 or #4 at a lesser cost might not be a bad move behind Garza, Dempster, and possibly Wells.

I'd rather have Choo or Masterson too, but the point of the trade proposal was salary dumps on both sides. I think Choo is pretty much "untouchable" and Masterson is a good young pitcher making the minimum, so I don't see a way of involving Zambrano in a trade for either one of them.

From MLBTR: •The Indians are facing an offseason of difficult decisions, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. With basically the same roster, the Tribe's payroll would jump from $49MM in 2011 to roughly $70MM next season, explains Hoynes. Several key players like Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Masterson, Chris Perez and Asdrubal Cabrera will be eligible for arbitration, and the Indians own options on Grady Sizemore ($9MM) and Fausto Carmona ($7MM). If the Indians pick up the options on Sizemore ($9 million) and Carmona ($7 million), maybe a deal could be worked out centered around Zambrano + $$$ for Sizemore + Carmona. Indians would get some salary relief and a pitcher to replace Carmona, while the Cubs solve the Zambrano issue with Carmona as #4 or #5 starter and a lot of hoping Sizemore can still walk. Obviously, there might need to be some tweaking with other players involved. Not a perfect solution, but it's better than the other options I've seen mentioned.

I'm not sure of the exact percentages, but I'd say you're not far off. I'm not arguing we won't see a dropoff from Aramis to a Baker/Flaherty platoon, I'm arguing that that dropoff will be less than the increase we get going from McNutt/Whitenack/Struck/Cashner/middling FA/whoever to CJ Wilson. And that Wilson provides us with much more long term value than Aramis does. Being the best FA starter, I'm a little worried about the cost/years that Wilson may command. I think the best route for pitching might be through a trade. We don't match up with some of these teams tradewise, but the early speculation is that names like Shields, Floyd, and Jurrjens might be available. We might have to get a third team involved. :yahoo:

At the deadline they acted like Baker was an important part of the 2012 Cubs. Of course, Baker isn't costing much anyhow.

I realize that it's a lot of bargaining on both sides, but a lot of GMs and owners are talking about staying away from 6-7 year contracts. The Blue Jays are the latest according to MLBTR. That sounds good for the Cubs pursuit of Pujols/Fielder except for the fact that all of the "talk" in Chicago seems to be about re-signing Pena. I guess we'll have to see how it all pans out.

Baker career v lefties: .533 SLG/.894 OPS Aramis career v lefties: .528 SLG/.877 OPS I'll concede that Flaherty is unproven and definitely a big question mark entering the year, but he'd only be facing righties in this scenario which should help his productivity. If he proves to not be ready, we have LeMahieu and DeWitt who can be tried in that role and I'd be all for seeking out a left handed hitting platoon option in FA/trade as well if the money is there. Really, though, if Baker can produce as he has throughout his career against lefties, you don't need a huge year out of his platoon partner to get better than league average (.706 OPS) production at third. Obviously we want to shoot higher than middle of the pack and I think this platoon can. That means Baker might be playing 20% of the time (against lefties) and the unproven rookie would be playing approximately 80% of the time.

Wait, what? If he wants 5-6 years for his oft injured 35 year old, I wonder what he wants for a 28 year old in the prime of his career who happens to be one of the best hitters in the game. Nobody is going to give Beltran 5-6 years, but I would expect Boras to say that.

I wonder if any of the other guys ever take offense to those 2 refering to themselves as the 1-2 punch. True as it may be, it's kind of like when Jordan used to refer to his supporting cast. The other guys won't care if Fielder and Braun can get them a big bonus check from the World Series.

Aramis is also 33 years old, has had extensive injury issues, and will want big money over probably 3 years. I hate being critical of Aramis as he's probably been my favorite Cub over his career, but he's more than likely going to be regressing over the course of any new deal and will be less valuable to the team each year. A platoon of Baker/Flaherty would be less productive than Aramis going into next year for sure, but it can still be better than league average and freeing up Aramis' salary allows us to make a significant upgrade in the rotation - which this team really needs with major question marks in 3 of the 5 rotation slots. By settling, I mean a very good, but old and injury prone third baseman is not as good an option as a legit top of the rotation starter with very little mileage on his arm. Re-signing Aramis wouldn't be a bad move per say, but it's not the optimal move. Even if we bring Z back, there's plenty of reasons (laid out very well by CCP in multiple threads) to think he's going to decline to some degree - possibly a lot - starting next year. Couple that with major question marks surrounding Wells' viability going forward and who we'll put in the fifth rotation slot (Cashner? McNutt? JJackson? There's not a lot of reason to be confident in any of them being quality arms next year). The rotation after Garza and Dempster has the potential to be a major problem next season and signing Wilson adds some much needed stability to that rotation. There's certainly a real chance we may miss out on him, but we also have as much as or more than anyone else to spend on FAs this offseason - we have a very legitimate chance to land both Fielder/Pujols and Wilson and I think we should try. If it doesn't work, then you readjust at that point, but you don't pass up two great long term options simply because it'll be difficult to sign both. I think the platoon you mentioned being less productive than Aramis is the understatement of the year. Flaherty is an unproven rookie and Baker is really a downgrade in the power department.

Moving the Astros to the AL would be great for Carlos Lee's career as a DH.

If we're so lucky that the Yankees set their sites on Wilson then the Cubs should go balls out and make a run at Sabathia. The Red Sox might be a legit runner at Wilson, but there's the chance they're not. They have Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz locked in and then arms like Miller, Wakefield, Bedard, Weiland, and whoever else for 5. I think both teams will be less active on Wilson than imagined, but teams like the Mets, Nationals, and others we'd never expect will try to throw the wrench in the Cubs' plan. It's easy to ignore now bc we don't know what it'll look like, but keep the trade market in mind. I expect it'll be busy this offseason. Yeah, teams that have improved this year like the Nationals could be very involved with some big-name FAs. Also there's teams like Toronto and Baltimore that could get involved in some of the bidding for the big names.

Obviously the $20 million is to help pay Zambrano, not in addition to paying his whole contract. If all of those pitchers are better than Zambrano, why are they "looking at every available starter" this offseason? Finally Morrison has been in their doghouse for much of the season and he has been the name mentioned as compensation for Guillen coming to the Marlins. If they're going to trade Morrison, I would think the better deal would be a crazy latin pitcher good for 200 innings rather than a crazy latin manager.

I have trouble believing that one,

Really, I've never heard that theory. That's because he just made it up. Everything I've read has stated that you usually get more in trade during the offseason than at the trade deadline.

It would have been nice to have more seriously considered dealing Marmol at the deadline, no? Now he's about to get much more expensive, possibly less effective, and probably less important given the makeup of the rest of the pen. /bitter You usually get more in trade during the offseason than at the deadline. A team with a need for a closer might not think $7 million and $9.8 million are too outrageous.

I'm sure the Cubs would be glad to give him that too, but I have a hunch Ramirez and his agent would laugh in your face at that offer.

Please, no more posts about LaHair. Let's just all agree he should be sent to a nice farm upstate and never heard from again once this season ends. Man, you really hate the guy at a Jeff H level. Just out of curiosity, why? If he got a roster spot, he wouldn't really be taking it from an actual prospect, just someone like Colvin, Montanez, or a 38 year old journeyman. Remember, there was a time when we carried both Daryl Ward and Cliff Floyd. I believe Craig Monroe was on that same team for a little while. We can make room for a guy who might be a solid lefty off the bench. Because he's a first baseman that isn't a good hitter. Because he turns THIRTY next year. Because it took him SIX years at AAA to start hitting. Because Colvin, Montanez, and a nameless journeyman are all better options for a future Cubs team. And because you've made 75 posts(actual number) mentioning his name in the last 40 days. If he can learn to be a solid pinch hitter (without regular playing time), he might have a spot at the ML level. Obviously we need to see who is on the 2012 roster before determining whether he fits in with the Cubs.

Nope. If this was a different organization I'd probably be cheering for it just for the fun of it. But I don't like having a guy with patience issues trying to get to an arbitrary number of hits by year end. Production isn't about a specific number of hits and Castro still has a lot of learning to do. But oh well, he's good enough to not get screwed up by it. he's 1st in outs made 1st in errors 5th in double plays grounded into. also 1st in hits 3rd in BA 4th in triples. And all of this at 21 years old. I'm not going to worry about him simply because he seems to be a very special talent who seems to want to get better.

It might be interesting to float Marmol's name during the offseason to see what we could get for him with Samardzija, Marshall, Carpenter, Wood, and possibly Cashner (depending on offseason moves) as possibilties to close.