Backtobanks

I'm not sure of the exact percentages, but I'd say you're not far off. I'm not arguing we won't see a dropoff from Aramis to a Baker/Flaherty platoon, I'm arguing that that dropoff will be less than the increase we get going from McNutt/Whitenack/Struck/Cashner/middling FA/whoever to CJ Wilson. And that Wilson provides us with much more long term value than Aramis does. Being the best FA starter, I'm a little worried about the cost/years that Wilson may command. I think the best route for pitching might be through a trade. We don't match up with some of these teams tradewise, but the early speculation is that names like Shields, Floyd, and Jurrjens might be available. We might have to get a third team involved. :yahoo:

At the deadline they acted like Baker was an important part of the 2012 Cubs. Of course, Baker isn't costing much anyhow.

I realize that it's a lot of bargaining on both sides, but a lot of GMs and owners are talking about staying away from 6-7 year contracts. The Blue Jays are the latest according to MLBTR. That sounds good for the Cubs pursuit of Pujols/Fielder except for the fact that all of the "talk" in Chicago seems to be about re-signing Pena. I guess we'll have to see how it all pans out.

Baker career v lefties: .533 SLG/.894 OPS Aramis career v lefties: .528 SLG/.877 OPS I'll concede that Flaherty is unproven and definitely a big question mark entering the year, but he'd only be facing righties in this scenario which should help his productivity. If he proves to not be ready, we have LeMahieu and DeWitt who can be tried in that role and I'd be all for seeking out a left handed hitting platoon option in FA/trade as well if the money is there. Really, though, if Baker can produce as he has throughout his career against lefties, you don't need a huge year out of his platoon partner to get better than league average (.706 OPS) production at third. Obviously we want to shoot higher than middle of the pack and I think this platoon can. That means Baker might be playing 20% of the time (against lefties) and the unproven rookie would be playing approximately 80% of the time.

Wait, what? If he wants 5-6 years for his oft injured 35 year old, I wonder what he wants for a 28 year old in the prime of his career who happens to be one of the best hitters in the game. Nobody is going to give Beltran 5-6 years, but I would expect Boras to say that.

I wonder if any of the other guys ever take offense to those 2 refering to themselves as the 1-2 punch. True as it may be, it's kind of like when Jordan used to refer to his supporting cast. The other guys won't care if Fielder and Braun can get them a big bonus check from the World Series.

Aramis is also 33 years old, has had extensive injury issues, and will want big money over probably 3 years. I hate being critical of Aramis as he's probably been my favorite Cub over his career, but he's more than likely going to be regressing over the course of any new deal and will be less valuable to the team each year. A platoon of Baker/Flaherty would be less productive than Aramis going into next year for sure, but it can still be better than league average and freeing up Aramis' salary allows us to make a significant upgrade in the rotation - which this team really needs with major question marks in 3 of the 5 rotation slots. By settling, I mean a very good, but old and injury prone third baseman is not as good an option as a legit top of the rotation starter with very little mileage on his arm. Re-signing Aramis wouldn't be a bad move per say, but it's not the optimal move. Even if we bring Z back, there's plenty of reasons (laid out very well by CCP in multiple threads) to think he's going to decline to some degree - possibly a lot - starting next year. Couple that with major question marks surrounding Wells' viability going forward and who we'll put in the fifth rotation slot (Cashner? McNutt? JJackson? There's not a lot of reason to be confident in any of them being quality arms next year). The rotation after Garza and Dempster has the potential to be a major problem next season and signing Wilson adds some much needed stability to that rotation. There's certainly a real chance we may miss out on him, but we also have as much as or more than anyone else to spend on FAs this offseason - we have a very legitimate chance to land both Fielder/Pujols and Wilson and I think we should try. If it doesn't work, then you readjust at that point, but you don't pass up two great long term options simply because it'll be difficult to sign both. I think the platoon you mentioned being less productive than Aramis is the understatement of the year. Flaherty is an unproven rookie and Baker is really a downgrade in the power department.

Moving the Astros to the AL would be great for Carlos Lee's career as a DH.

If we're so lucky that the Yankees set their sites on Wilson then the Cubs should go balls out and make a run at Sabathia. The Red Sox might be a legit runner at Wilson, but there's the chance they're not. They have Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz locked in and then arms like Miller, Wakefield, Bedard, Weiland, and whoever else for 5. I think both teams will be less active on Wilson than imagined, but teams like the Mets, Nationals, and others we'd never expect will try to throw the wrench in the Cubs' plan. It's easy to ignore now bc we don't know what it'll look like, but keep the trade market in mind. I expect it'll be busy this offseason. Yeah, teams that have improved this year like the Nationals could be very involved with some big-name FAs. Also there's teams like Toronto and Baltimore that could get involved in some of the bidding for the big names.

Obviously the $20 million is to help pay Zambrano, not in addition to paying his whole contract. If all of those pitchers are better than Zambrano, why are they "looking at every available starter" this offseason? Finally Morrison has been in their doghouse for much of the season and he has been the name mentioned as compensation for Guillen coming to the Marlins. If they're going to trade Morrison, I would think the better deal would be a crazy latin pitcher good for 200 innings rather than a crazy latin manager.

I have trouble believing that one,

Really, I've never heard that theory. That's because he just made it up. Everything I've read has stated that you usually get more in trade during the offseason than at the trade deadline.

It would have been nice to have more seriously considered dealing Marmol at the deadline, no? Now he's about to get much more expensive, possibly less effective, and probably less important given the makeup of the rest of the pen. /bitter You usually get more in trade during the offseason than at the deadline. A team with a need for a closer might not think $7 million and $9.8 million are too outrageous.

I'm sure the Cubs would be glad to give him that too, but I have a hunch Ramirez and his agent would laugh in your face at that offer.

Please, no more posts about LaHair. Let's just all agree he should be sent to a nice farm upstate and never heard from again once this season ends. Man, you really hate the guy at a Jeff H level. Just out of curiosity, why? If he got a roster spot, he wouldn't really be taking it from an actual prospect, just someone like Colvin, Montanez, or a 38 year old journeyman. Remember, there was a time when we carried both Daryl Ward and Cliff Floyd. I believe Craig Monroe was on that same team for a little while. We can make room for a guy who might be a solid lefty off the bench. Because he's a first baseman that isn't a good hitter. Because he turns THIRTY next year. Because it took him SIX years at AAA to start hitting. Because Colvin, Montanez, and a nameless journeyman are all better options for a future Cubs team. And because you've made 75 posts(actual number) mentioning his name in the last 40 days. If he can learn to be a solid pinch hitter (without regular playing time), he might have a spot at the ML level. Obviously we need to see who is on the 2012 roster before determining whether he fits in with the Cubs.

Nope. If this was a different organization I'd probably be cheering for it just for the fun of it. But I don't like having a guy with patience issues trying to get to an arbitrary number of hits by year end. Production isn't about a specific number of hits and Castro still has a lot of learning to do. But oh well, he's good enough to not get screwed up by it. he's 1st in outs made 1st in errors 5th in double plays grounded into. also 1st in hits 3rd in BA 4th in triples. And all of this at 21 years old. I'm not going to worry about him simply because he seems to be a very special talent who seems to want to get better.

It might be interesting to float Marmol's name during the offseason to see what we could get for him with Samardzija, Marshall, Carpenter, Wood, and possibly Cashner (depending on offseason moves) as possibilties to close.

From MLBTR: •The Marlins intend to discuss every available starting pitcher this winter. The free agent market is looking thin, so teams with starters to trade will be in a good position. If Morrison is still in the doghouse - Morrison for Zambrano, Colvin, and $20 million. Marlins fill their new stadium with daily fireworks show from the dugout with Guillen and Zambrano.

Id love to see Epstein become the next GM or president of baseball operations for the Cubs, but I think its a little unrealistic at the moment and that he's just angling for a contract extension. Who knows though anything is possible and Theo could be looking for a new challenge. Im not sure how Id feel about Beane running the team, Im sure it would be a vast improvement but that goes without saying with any of the names that have been thrown around. Of all the names Epstein would be the dream choice, I hope somehow it happens. Ending the curse would have to be the only motivation for Epstein. More money, a much better team, and a better farm system are all reasons to stay in Boston. Of course, he wouldn't have to compete with the Yankees every year.

I totally agree on no to Dunn. The few things I've read say he has lost bat speed and may not rebound.

If I were the Reds' GM, I would listen to offers for Votto this offseason. Alonzo can flat out hit, but can't play the OF. Votto could get a #1 starter. The Reds won't be able to afford him after next year @ $19,000,000.

From MLBTR: •One factor that could dissuade the White Sox from firing manager Ozzie Guillen is the possibility of him landing with the Cubs and helping to make them a winner, tweets Pedro Gomez of ESPN.com.

While reading all of these posts, I thought the same thing. Is the lack of walks something to blame on Fleita or the hitting coaches? I'm not saying he's done a great job, but it doesn't sound like we're all on the same page as to what his exact duties are.

It's kind of hard to say the Cubs are tight with money when you look at Soriano, Zambrano, Ramirez, Dempster, Grabow, etc.

From MLBTR: •Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez will be seeking a multiyear contract this offseason, according to his agent, Paul Kinzer, writes Fred Mitchell of the Chicago Tribune. A-Ram hasn't ruled out returning to the Cubs, apparently, but he "would have been more likely to re-sign with [Chicago] if Jim Hendry was there," Kinzer said. This is the same sentiment we heard from Kinzer in the wake of Hendry's dismissal a week or so back. The Cubs have a $16MM club option for 2012 on A-Ram, with a $2MM buyout. He can decline the option, though, in which case he'd forfeit any compensation.