StylesClash

The Ben Zobrist signing, at least in the short term, is a perfect fit. Adding someone to the lineup who doesn't struggle against lefties and can take his fair share of walks, while not punching out a a lot, was clearly needed. I simply don't think its financially prudent to give nearly 200 million to a player based mainly on defense, especially when its unknown if Heyward's elite Corner range will be as adept in Center. Although the fact that Heyward will more than likely opt out after year three makes me more comfortable with the contract. As for St Louis, I know its cliche to say, but the reason I give them the benefit of the doubt is that they're the freaking Cardinals. There really aren't that many other organizations, over the past 15 years, who've been more adept at developing young talent and making wise trades. I think its foolish to count them out of the divisional race before the season has even begun (especially considering their rotation has a high amount of upside). Struggling against lefties was/is a problem? Also it's silly to think Heyward will struggle in CF. Fowler had one of his best, if not best, defensive years in CF last year moving to Wrigley after grading out below average most of his career. I look at it that it's very unlikely Heyward isn't a net positive for us in CF compared to what we had last year when you factor in Wrigley and just needing to be better than Fowler out there. As for the Cardinals rotation upside, basically last year was their upside year when they had ridiculous ERA to FIP/xFIP ratios and huge strand rates. They have just as much downside as they have upside with likely regression and pitcher health. -Heyward's track record against lefties is poor. -Montero's track record against lefties is poor. -Schwarber hit lefties very poorly last season. While he will likely improve that aspect of his game with more big league experience a platoon may still be necessary. It's nice to know that barring an age 35 career swoon Zobrist likely will be more than capable against lefties and righties.

What's the Cub equivalent to what the Yankees gave up? Having a Chapman/Strop/Rondon back end of the pen trio would have been mighty nice. Especially considering if Chapman more than likely weren't brought back a first or second round pick would be added for the 2017 draft.

The Ben Zobrist signing, at least in the short term, is a perfect fit. Adding someone to the lineup who doesn't struggle against lefties and can take his fair share of walks, while not punching out a a lot, was clearly needed. I simply don't think its financially prudent to give nearly 200 million to a player based mainly on defense, especially when its unknown if Heyward's elite Corner range will be as adept in Center. Although the fact that Heyward will more than likely opt out after year three makes me more comfortable with the contract. As for St Louis, I know its cliche to say, but the reason I give them the benefit of the doubt is that they're the freaking Cardinals. There really aren't that many other organizations, over the past 15 years, who've been more adept at developing young talent and making wise trades. I think its foolish to count them out of the divisional race before the season has even begun (especially considering their rotation has a high amount of upside).

Piscotty's 2015 Triple A OPS, which occurred with a significant sample size of over 300 AB's, was about the same as his MLB OPS. As for Grichuk his minor league OPS average was 818. His MLB 2015 OPS was 877. This again was with a nice MLB sample size of 323 plate appearances. And the increase was due to more power, which develops later in careers for many players. I don't think its beyond the realm of possibility at all that each puts together an OPS of around 850, which would be well above league average.

There's clearly some big time question marks about St.Louis heading into 2016, but if most of them turnout well I expect the Cardinals to be well over their fangraph 88 win projection. Here's my biggest Cardinal X-Factors: -Piscotty and Grichuk second year progress. Both made their big league debuts this past season. Even though neither was as hyped as Bryant or Schwarber both produced at comparable levels. The question for these two is in their second seasons in St Louis will they take the next step forward from very good to great, stay at approximately the same level, or regress as their scouting reports get more advanced. -Health of Wainwright, Martinez and Garcia. Wainwright prior to 2015 was one of baseball's most durable starting pitchers. However this season he suffered an Achilles tendon injury, which cost him most of the year. At age 34 can Wainwright again be a 200+ inning pitcher? Jamie Garcia the past several season's has missed significant amount of time due to injuries, and hasn't pitched close to 200 innings since 2011. Can 2016 be the year he reverses this trend. And Carlos Martinez may have the highest upside of any Cardinal pitcher. However this was his first full season in their rotation, and he couldn't survive without getting hurt. The question among this trio is can St Louis get around 540 innings between the three. -Contributions from Holliday and Moss. The overall numbers from Matt Holliday this past season, particularly his on base, were just fine. However he couldn't manage 400 AB's for the first time in his career. Will this trend continue into his age 36 season. And Brandon Moss a few years ago quietly put together two more than respectable seasons in a row. However this past season he was below average due to an injury. If Moss is healthy in 2016 will he be capable of duplicating his solid 2013 season. I expect Piscotty and Grichuk to produce at their approximate 2015 stat lines. However getting full seasons from each, as opposed to the mid season call up from Piscotty and sporadic early season playing time from Grichuk, will help offset losing Jason Heyward. As for the St Louis rotation issues, I don't see the Wainwright Achilles injury to be a massive concern. A shoulder or elbow injury would be more worrisome, as they are more likely to lead to chronic issues. I expect Wainwright to produce around 200 innings. Jamie Garcia has never been that durable, so I'll pencil him in at around 120 innings. And Carlos Martinez's shoulder injury shouldn't be taken lightly, as its been hurt before. I expect St Louis to keep strict tabs on his pitch count early in the season, which will obviously effect his overall innings total (which I'll project to be around 160). So overall I expect Wainwright, Garcia and Martinez to give St Louis a little bit under 500 innings. However acquiring the very durable Mike Leake will help compensate for injuries, and possible pitch count limits, for these three. And finally regarding Holliday and Moss, Holliday has been very durable throughout his career, so I'll chalk up his 2015 injury as an aberration. However Holliday's OPS, for the most part, has declined since 2010. And at age 36 I don't expect that trend to change. So I'll project him with an OPS around 780. As for Brandon Moss, assuming he can avoid lingering key injuries, I'll project his effectiveness level at somewhere between his solid 2013 and disappointing 2015. As you can see I expect a good chunk of the Cardinal x-factors to work in their favor. This will lead to an approximate win total of 93.

While I understand the appeal in Baez off the bench, I think the upside isn't as high as people think. Lets say Addison Russell's tweaks his hamstring in early May, requiring a DL stint, giving Baez the Shortstop job. The idea of a 23 year old extremely aggressive hitter excelling in a starting role, after being on the bench for an extended period of time, is fairly unrealistic in my mind. Plus there's there's the mental makeup of Baez to consider. How will a 23 year old with incredible physical tools, who has excelled in the Minors, react to sporadic playing time? Will he pout? Will he be able to get into a rhythm while only hitting once per game? I could easily see Baez not adjusting well to a part time role. This would hurt not only his stats, but his trade value, should a Starting Pitcher be needed come July.

The offensive expectations for Russell for 2016 really aren't that high. If worse came to worse and Russell suffered a nagging injury a defensive minded shortstop could always be acquired, slotted into the nine hole, and the offensive downgrade likely wouldn't be enough to take down the potency of the lineup. But when you look at the rotation two pitchers are on the wrong side of 30, one blew by his single season innings total in 2015, and another two years in a row has fallen apart in the second half, I see the likelihood for the need to acquire another starting pitcher near the deadline to be rather high.

Pretty simple question here. Do you believe Javy Baez will be dealt before the start of the regular season, during the season itself, or stay on Chicago's 25 man roster the entire year. Also how many at bats do you project Baez to receive, as well as his slash line. I'm predicting either inconsistency from Hendricks or Hammel struggling will lead to Baez being packaged along with McKinney or Almora, during the regular season, for a Starting Pitcher. And unless someone in the starting lineup gets hurt or underachieves I don't see Baez getting that many at bats, which will lead to a tolerable, but not ideal, slash line of 260/290/410. After being dealt mid season to a team in clear cut rebuild mode, I think being given consistent playing time will lead to a better slash line of 270/300/430.

Glad to hear Schwarber will be playing the majority, if not all, his games in the Outfield. I want Schwarber having nothing to do with a position that puts him at an increased risk to get hurt. Considering how good the lineup likely will be I wouldn't be opposed to dealing Montero in a salary dump move, and simply going with a tolerable veteran stopgap at the bottom of the order until Contreras is hopefully ready come August or September. As for a prediction for Soler's 2016 slash line, I won't get too excited and instead give what I think is a fairly realistic line of 275/345/450. Combined with tolerable defense that would represent a solid step in the right direction for his career.

Have the Cardinals been linked to Chris Davis since Baltimore apparently pulled their offer? If Davis were added to their lineup, it still wouldn't be as deep as ours, their middle of the order would certainly stack up well. Also who will be competing for their fifth starters job besides Lyons?

Andrew Cashner seems like a good buy low opportunity. The stuff is clearly there. His durability last season was fine. And with this being his walk year Cashner has all the incentive in the world to take a big step forward in his career. I'd be glad to give up Almora or McKinney on the hope Cashner can turn his mid 90's fastball and nasty slider into some quality results. Worst case scenario Cashner could be converted back into a reliever. In that role he has as much upside as anyone in the pen (outside of Rondon).

So what's a realistic slash line for 2016? Unless Russell cuts down on his Strikeouts I don't see him hitting for a high Average. And during only two months of the season did he show any power. 260/320/400 would be my guess. Russell said he wanted to steal more, so getting around a dozen Stolen Bases would be nice. Also I'm curious to see what the typical Russell supporter, which seems like practically the entire board, sees as his peak OPS. Considering that his value has been deemed only a notch or so below Bryant's I would think a lot of people are expecting OPS' in his prime of around 800.

The Royal pen was better than ours. The Royals also have more team speed and are better defensively. Also our strikeout prone lineup was ripe for the taking from a rotation filled with power arms. Even with Heyward and Zobrist the lineup will still punch out a ton. But if you want to bank on a rotation with a 37 year old, a soon to be 32 year old, a pitcher who two years in a row has failed miserably in the second half, and one who blew by his career innings limit, that's your prerogative. I simply like the idea of turning a super aggressive spare part into a power arm, with tolerable durability, and proven huge upside.

There's no way I trade Baez for a single season of an oft-injured pitcher. I understand you're looking to optimize the use of resources here, but if you're trading Javy you need to look at pitchers who have more years of control (and likely at better salaries) The problem I have with Baez is I absolutely do not envision him being able to thrive not starting everyday. 23 year olds with very aggressive approaches, and quite frankly younger players in general, have a tough time excelling without consistent at bats. So unless someone gets hurt, Baez will likely only receive sporadic playing time. I see this leading to bad stats, which will obviously hurt his trade value. Also I'm not that high on Baez anyways. Baez strikes me as the type of player who could very easily endure Alfonso Soriano style cold streaks for long periods of time. For a team looking to win now Baez isn't a great fit in my mind. Baez needs everyday at bats from a team in rebuild mode. That way he can endure months of bad play, while still keeping his starting job. As for Strasburg, his durability two of the past three seasons has been just fine. And my goal with Strasburg in the regular season is only to get 150 or so innings. The real need for him is in October, where the Mets still have the better rotation. Strasburg is the only realistic trade option that can go head to head with the Met best arms.

If Baez isn't penciled into the everyday lineup, which unless Heyward stays in Right and Baez shifts to Center will likely be the case, he should be included in any package for pitching help. I've mentioned Baez for Strasburg for months and love the idea now more than ever. Missing out on all their key free agent targets may cause the Nats to view 2016 in a more conservative fashion. Plus there's always the fear of a Strasburg injury being a legitimate possibility at any point, which would significantly alter his value. But if Strasburg's medicals came back clean I'd feel comfortable dealing Baez for Strasburg and the comp pick we'd receive if he left after the season. Plus with Adam Warren as an insurance policy we could afford to treat Strasburg with kid gloves. Skip the occasional regular season start if need be. The goal with Strasburg should be to keep him healthy for October, where he can go head to head with any of the Met rotation options.

6 yrs of Baez for one year of Strasburg? I'll pass Not that I wouldn't deal him, but he'd need to be included as part of a package in deal for a controllable young starter like Carrasco. Otherwise, I'd rather just buy pitching or use the minor league system to acquire it. Rotoworld has Baez at five years. Five years of boom or bust Baez for one year of Strasburg, who looked great the final two months of the season, isn't anything to sneeze at. Especially considering if Strasburg left we'd get a comp pick in return and Baez leaving doesn't open up a hole on the roster. Also I'd love a chance at buying low on Cashner. If Almora or McKinney could be turned into Cashner I make the deal in a second.

It would be in Washington's best interest to seriously consider dealing Strasburg now. If they wait until July, Strasburg won't be draft pick compensation eligible, which would hurt his value. Plus there's always the legitimate chance he gets hurt again. I mentioned a Baez for Strasburg deal a while back, and I still feel good about it now. It makes sense from Washington's perspective too, since Desmond leaving opens up a hole at Shortstop. If Strasburg were acquired and Fowler were somehow brought back on a backloaded three year contract, although four years is looking like a probability at this point, I'd feel pretty good about the offseason.

How much would everyone be comfortable giving up for AJ Pollock? Considering Pollock fills the Center Field void for atleast three years, has great range and is a good base stealer, I'd be willing to practically break the bank. Baez, Castro, Almora and a second tier pitching prospect seems like a good start. Baez takes over at Short for Ahmed. Castro could either replace Owings at second, or be a trade chip. I would be willing to replace Almora with McKinney if need be too.

Not if you're Jake. Because turning down contract extensions from Theo turned out so well for Garza and Shark. When it comes to starting pitchers being offered long term contracts during arbitration years, there is absolutely something to be said for the expression "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

If the Nats are out of it come July, and Strasburg is healthy and dominant, he'd be a prime candidate to fill that concept. I wonder what a fair price would be for two months of Strasburg (plus possible postseason starts). Almora continuing his second half quality run into 2016 would make him a quality trade option for Washington. Span will be gone and Michael Taylor likely won't be a long term Center Field option.

No team is going to sign Shark to a one year deal due to the loss of a draft pick. Even from a team with a protected first round pick? One year of potential dominance from Shark is worth a second round pick in my mind. Plus if Shark pitches well in 2016 he would reject the qualifying offer and you would receive a pick back for the 2017 draft (if he wasn't re-signed).

If I'm Shark, and am confident in the teaching ability of Bosio, I would seriously consider taking a one year deal. Next years Free Agent Starting Pitching class will be incredibly weak. So if Shark can manage 200+ innings with an ERA around 3.40, he would easily be able to gain better offers than what he's likely to receive right now. Shark signing a long term deal right now, while his value is fairly low, signals to me he doesn't have confidence in himself to regain his dominant form of 2014 (or even 2012).

We've come a long way from what our Top 10 prospects looked like after the Garza trade. Any particular reason why his production dropped so much once he went to Tampa? I remember taking a look at Lee's number in Peoria years ago and thinking he was the potential leadoff man of the future. Solid Walk totals, punch out's not too high, and a quality base stealer. Combined with above average defensive range and I'll admit that at one time I was higher on Lee than Castro.

Glad to see Arrieta win, but I'm not interested at all in talking extension unless a serious hometown discount is considered. Arrieta will be 30 next year, blew by his career high innings total this season, and will be under control for two more seasons. I'm more than content at letting Arrieta play out these two years. Though if I'm Arrieta I think giving a sizable discount for long term security is a smart move. He's seen how Garza and Shark were burned by turning down long term extensions and seeing their production considerably drop afterwards. I'm curious once long term extension talk inevitably begins what the rumored numbers are.

I don't want anywhere near the 100M remaining on his contract. If he were a few years younger would you feel differently? Three of the past four years Choo has played at a level that would be worth close to 20 million. Its just a question of how much his production will drop as he ages. But since Choo's key attribute is taking Walks, I see him aging better than most players.