StylesClash

I always go back to the good version of Mark Bellhorn for ceiling. Bellhorn was only good twice, and I think a few years apart too, but otherwise the heavy Iso offense, passable D, switch hitting 2B thing works in my head. --- Draft prediction: Cubs take HS RHP Reggie Lawson with the Fowler comp pick. Mark Bellhorn.......eek. I was hoping for Todd Walker. I felt like Walker's defensive shortcomings were overblown and he should have been given more credit for his bat. I'd love for Happ to turn into someone with great contact skills, a bit of pop, and who could take the occasional Walk. In other words a very solid number two hitter. As for this Lawson fellow, is he a high upside arm? I feel like with having so many slots in the lineup locked up for years Theo should take a chance and use that Fowler pick on a somewhat risky high upside arm. It's just kind of frustrating to not have that many pitchers in the farm system to get enthused about. Even if he flames out it's not as if a top ten pick was sacrificed in the process.

There seems to be a whole lot of excitement for Happ. Anyone care to project a slash line for him? And what's a realistic comp? PS: Since Schwarber received a big league promotion a year after being drafted, if Happ indeed has a breakout season could a September call up be a legitimate possibility?

Hopefully one of the big name pitchers can breakout and come out of this season looking like a legit number one or two prospect in the system. While I can appreciate not wanting to spend valuable first round picks on pitchers, since young pitchers are prone to injuries, it is a bit frustrating to see the pitching portion of the farm system be rather weak after four years of Theo at the helm. Personally I'm still irritated a top ten pick was spent on Almora. When the selection was made it sounded like the logic behind it was Almora had a high floor. I don't like the idea of using a top ten pick on someone based upon them being a good bet to at least be a tolerable player. I wanted Giolito with that selection, since using a non-top five pick on someone who based on pure stuff was worthy of being taken number one overall seemed like a worthwhile gamble to make (even with the injury concerns). I pretty much had the same opinion with Brady Aiken in 2015.

Speaking of odds, anyone have an idea when Divisional odds will be released? Nearly all the big name free agents are signed, and the odds of anymore big trades occurring before the start of the regular season are fairly slim. Also anyone care to speculate on what the odds of the Cubs winning the Central will be? It's pretty much a two horse race for the title, with Chicago as favorites, so I would think maybe +120.

Disagree 100 percent. A hitter who slashes 280/350/450 absolutely has more business hitter at the top of the order than one who hits 280/300/500. The top of the order hitters are table setters, and so you want those players to get on base at a high rate for your middle of the order hitters to drive in. The idea that it doesn't matter whether a highly disciplined hitter hits second or sixth is ridiculous.

While Fowler obviously wouldn't want to be a fourth outfield, I wouldn't at all be opposed to giving him nine or ten million to fill that role. Fowler could platoon with Schwarber (which would do wonder's for Schwarber's OPS and help keep him fresh for September and October). And he'd also provide insurance against a Heyward injury or Soler underachieving. Plus he'd make an excellent pinch hitter against tough lefty relievers, and provide quality speed off the bench. If Fowler accepted a one year deal worth around nine million a clause could be inserted into his contract which would ensure the Cubs couldn't offer him a qualifying offer. Not being tied to draft pick compensation, along with a much weaker free agent outfield class, should help Fowler get a better deal next offseason. Plus it's not as if being a fourth outfielder for a year would hurt Fowler's value significantly. He's shown for years he's a capable starter. That poor poor dead horse. You beat him and beat him, and then came back for more :(

Someone mentioned a few days back about how the idea of acquiring a clear cut above average starting pitcher would not only be great for this season, but especially two years from now. Lackey will be retired, Hammel will be gone, Lester could very easily start to be in the midst of a decline, and Arrieta may not be deemed worthy of a massive five or six year contract. So if you acquire a good pitcher for Soler not only do you make the rotation better now, but you're now better prepared for down the road. Plus I do like the idea of knowing what you're going to get from Fowler (a respectable 750 to 790 OPS). With Soler he could boom to the tune of an OPS of around 820, or bust with an OPS of 710/720 (with below average defense to boot). Having another quality base stealer, in Fowler, certainly is nice too. When playing in pitcher friendly parks, in cold weather, or against a tough sinkerballer, having additional speed is a valuable asset. I know the odds of acquiring Jose Fernandez are slim to none, but rotoworld posted a blurb talking about how the Marlins realize they are near certain to lose Fernandez as a FA three years from now. And realistically Fernandez's value won't increase that much more, so holding onto him until next offseason doesn't seem worth the risk of him getting hurt. So if Florida fell in love with Soler's upside we could start a package built around Soler and whatever two or three prospects in the farm system Florida wants (although I would prefer to keep Contreras if at all possible). Hammel could be thrown in too, since if he pitches well again in the first half Florida could flip him for a solid prospect or two.

Was Kris Bryant's career Minor League BABIP close to his high 2015 MLB version? I believe it's been said that Grichuk and Piscotty had minor league BABIP's much lower than what they produced for the Cards this season. So that would be a good reason to think they're due to decline in 2016. http://i.giphy.com/11a8FLrVeoLnna.gif Wouldn't it make more sense in this totally not made up scenario to be asking about the Cardinals on a Cardinals message board? Or are you inexplicably asking them about the Cubs? Thanks for contributing to legitimate discussion about my questions in this thread. :D

Piscotty 9th and Grichuk 16th out of 311 players. I had to put the minimum PA at 250 since neither of them had enough PA to qualify on the normal list. Thanks for the legit reply. The reason why I'm asking so many Cardinal questions is that I'm considering betting a rather large amount on the Cubs to win the Central. And with the Bucs losing Burnett and Happ the Cards are the only likely team to threaten that bet. So I'm just looking to learn as much about the Cardinals in terms of possible player declines and minor league impact promotions. Also could you please give the link where you found the BABIP listing?

Im thinking some time after game 50. But if you want a better answer than that, perhaps you should go ask your fellow fans over at GRB. "Some time after game 50"? That's quite the analysis, sir. Shame on me for thinking that a reply would speculate how many minor league innings or starts would be needed before serious consideration would be given for a promotion. I think it's time that you take over Ron Darlings slot on the MLB Network. Your knowledge and perspective clearly warrants it.

Is there a listing of the top players in terms of BABIP in 2015? With the talk of how much Piscotty and Grichuk benefited from well above average BABIP I'm curious where they rank. Also I noticed Alex Reyes, of the Cardinals, ranked number three on MLB.com's top RHP listing. With Reyes' 50 game suspension what would everyone suspect would be a realistic time period for him to be promoted to the bigs? With Garcia and Martinez being above average injury risks I'm curious when Reyes, at the earliest, would be ready to step in should an injury occur in the rotation.

Ok? I guess I purchased an authentic Mark Prior jersey, as well as t-shirt Zambrano and Lee jersey's for the heck of it. Just because I don't drink Cub koolaid on every issue doesn't make me a Cardinal fan. The lineup will likely be the NL's best. The bullpen should be just fine. I'm just nervous about an old rotation with a lot of mileage/consistency issues.

It drives me nuts when people hem and haw about the Cardinals' luck and "pixie dust," but last year really was a case of that kind of coming true, both in terms of their offense and pitching. It wasn't a matter of something teachable or signable; they had a LOT of luck. And as unlikely as it was for them to pull that off for most of one season, it becomes absurdly unlikely to think they'll somehow do it again the next season. The Cardinals didn't stumble across some mystic equation that cracks the BABIP code or allows them to strand runners practically at will. If the Cardinals win more than 85 games this year, it's not going to be a repeat of how they won as many games as they did last year. BABIP can be a huge factor. Some guys are good enough to maintain success with a high BABIP, but most tend to come back to Earth. It's not like they're being projected to fall off of a cliff. And people think you're a "secret" Cardinals fan because basically all you post about is how good you think the Cardinals will be. To expand, these guys didn't even carry BABIPs like that in the minors. There are hundreds of ABs we have data on them from their time in the minors, and they didn't prove to be some of those guys that can maintain high BABIPs during this time. Why should we believe that they suddenly figured out how to do so at a much tougher level? Also, it's not just the BABIP. They also carried higher ISOs than they ever did in the minors. And, I mean, it was like 250-300 PAs for both of them. If you want to draw some sweeping conclusion from 300 plate appearances that these guys just suddenly improved everything about their offensive games, despite facing tougher pitching than they've ever seen, then, sure, go for it. But, I'm a little more reticent to do so, as are the projections. Also, these guys are like 25 and were never top prospects. Sure, they might pull a Matt Carpenter. But, I'm really not that worried. Give me the 21- 22-year-old kids like Schwarber and Russell that have always been viewed as uber-talents and have always put up monster numbers throughout the minors as more likely to exceed projections. And even if Piscotty and Grichuk are to maintain those excessive spikes in BABIP and ISO and replicate their success from last year, who gives a [expletive]? The Cards would still be, like, 10 games worse than us. In conclusion, I have to agree, if this guy is a Cubs fan and has been paying attention to any of the events of the last year or so, then he is either completely un-discerning or the world's biggest pessimist. Otherwise, he is definitely a Cardinals fan. I'm absolutely pessimistic when it comes to the rotation. Two of our starters are above the age of 30 (with a lot of mileage on their arms). Another has had two awful second halves in a row (and at age 33 is no where near a sure thing to rebound to anything close to his 2014/2015 first half forms). And Arrieta blew by his single season career high innings total in 2015. Combine that with the fact that there's no impact arms in the farm system and I think there's reason to at least be a bit nervous (although the Warren acquisition does alleviate some of that concern). Also you can dislike a team while still respecting their results. Dominating for years without tanking previously, and rarely spending big on free agents, is an accomplishment.

So if I were a secret Cardinal fan what would my motivation have been for being really enthusiastic after the 2004 Nomar acquisition? Or the 2007 Rammy walkoff again Francisco Cordero? I'm simply a realistic Cub fan who knows that St Louis has one of the best track records in sports when it comes to developing and acquiring talent. I think the idea of practically writing them off before the season starts is risky to put it mildly. Also I'm trying to get a gauge on the reasoning behind the massive dropoff in production from Piscotty and Grichuk. It seems like it's mainly based on their high BABIP's last season.

So is the main reason the production of Piscotty and Grichuk is projected to decline so heavily based upon the high BABIP's last season? Also based upon ZIP projections were the Nats projected to win the NL East last season? I'm just trying to get a gauge on how seriously these projections should be taken in terms of accuracy.

I don't think it's an awful idea to suggest signing Fowler to a one year deal. Here's the reasons I can see the move making sense: -Fowler excels versus lefty pitching (something Heyward, Montero and possibly Schwarber will struggle with). Also Fowler is tolerable against righties, so a platoon wouldn't be needed for his position. -Adding more speed to the lineup. As we all know its very tough to score runs at Wrigley with the wind blowing in. So adding another steal threat to the lineup would be nice in cold Wrigley games (as well as three of the five NL West parks, and when facing Sinker ball pitchers). -OPS certainty. No one has any idea how Soler will perform in 2016. He's OPS could realistically range from 710 to 830. With Fowler the odds are very good he puts up an OPS between 750 and 800. And after 2016 if Fowler weren't brought back Baez could be inserted into Right Field (or possibly Third Base, with Bryant shifting to Right). Mckinney and Happ may end up being good sleeper candidates for the position too.

I'm very excited about a lineup with three 30 home run threats, as well as five 350+ OBP threats. Barring a whole lot of things going wrong the lineup should be the best in the NL Central. The rotation makes me a bit nervous though. Kyle Henricks, last season, was very inconsistent. Lackey and Lester are getting long in the tooth and have a lot of innings under their belts. Arrieta will be interesting to watch to see how he reacts after throwing well over 200 innings last season for the first time in his career. And Hammell...well his consecutive poor second halves are well documented. Anyways between now and July 31st I'm fairly confident that a fairly big name will be added to the rotation via trade. Hopefully Almora is able to increase his trade value by continuing his second half surge from 2015. I'd love to use him as a key secondary piece in a pitching trade. I wanted Giolio badly during the 2012 Draft, and Theo passing on him for Almora is one of the few key mistakes he's made since coming to Chicago. So using Almora as a trade chip for a good pitcher would help lessen that blow.

For the life of me I don't understand something about meter style pitching. The meter, for lefty pitchers, faces the exact opposite direction as the right handed meter. So lets say you're using a righty starting pitcher for six innings and then go to a lefty reliever. With the meter facing the opposite direction timing becomes incredibly difficult. I don't see why there isn't a user option to alter the direction of the pitching meter. Also the last version of the show I played, which was 2014 I believe, had players over the age of 30 have their attributes massively decline in the offseason. I like the idea of attribute decline and rising. But it was seriously flawed in execution.

I know getting any sort of juicy info from Theo would probably be tough, but I'm curious about his draft philosophy. All four of his Cub drafts the first round selection has been used on a positional player, with many of the next several picks being used on pitching. Based on this track record I'm wondering if Theo and Jed view pitching as too risky to use a first round pick on (especially with all four years the first round pick being in the top ten).

That's a long way away. Obviously August is a long way away. I'm just throwing out a legitimate possible scenario that could occur down the road, along with how I would respond to said scenario. I wouldn't be opposed to doing the same thing with Jon Lester. Having both Wood and Warren in the bullpen, along with a commanding NL Central in August, could afford that sort of luxury.

Come August if we have a nice lead in the NL Central I wouldn't be opposed to skipping the occasional Arrieta start. After seeing Jake blow through his single season career high inning total I'm a bit nervous about the prospect of possible velocity drops (and other issues relating to being worked so hard in 2015). If Travis Wood is still on the team we would have two options to use for that fill in role (Wood and Warren).

ZiPS isn't out yet for them. Steamer is: Piscotty - .267/.327/.407 .319 wOBA 103 wRC+ Grichuk - .249/.296/.445 .317 wOBA 101 wRC+ Projections might be low on both players because both were guys who performed much better in the big leagues than their minors numbers ever really foretold. That may have just been luck (both guys had pretty high BABIPs last year) and that may have been adjustment/development. Probably some combination of the two. Are Steamer or ZIP projections usually more accurate? If those are the approximate slash lines Piscotty and Grichuk actually produce in 2016 the Cardinal lineup is in big trouble. As for the Cub projections, Soler with an OPS barely above 750 is a disappointment. Considering how well Soler ended the season, and his minor league track record, a lot of people on here seem to be expecting a big time breakout season. It seems as though they're projecting Schwarber to platoon with Baez. If Schwarber doesn't start against lefties and can only produce an OPS of 819 I would be fairly surprised.

Have 2016 projection slash lines been released for Piscotty and Grichuk yet? And in general how accurate are sites like fangraphs with their projections? By the way, its a shame the Cards with able to land Mike Leake. One of their biggest question marks was rotation durability, and they picked up a starter under the age of 30 who's a near lock for around 180 innings and an ERA around four. And signing Leake didn't require giving up one of their first round picks either. I'm also very curious about Adam Wainwright. I would assume the odds of an Achilles injury leading to chronic issues are well below those of the elbow and shoulder. So if he's able to come close to regaining his 2013/2014 form that's another factor that could help lessen the blow of losing Heyward, Lackey and Lynn.

160 or so at bats per year of poor offensive production is pretty significant when you're paying someone 20 million a year. From what I've heard Schwarber's minor league track record against lefties is rather good. If he can manage to put together an OPS of around 750 against lefties, while Heyward continues to struggle to the tune of around 660 or so, I'll be curious if there will be consideration of putting Baez in a Center Field platoon (atleast in smaller parks). A ~.660 OPS against LHP would have been about top 20 in baseball last year for CF, add in likely plus defense and Heyward should be starting in CF almost every game against LHP. As you stated before, at Wrigley there isn't a lot of ground to cover. So if Baez is able to show he's capable in Center Field I think a platoon, in smaller parks, is an option which should be considered. Baez putting together a lefty OPS of over 700 is fairly realistic in my mind. Plus it's not a bad idea to give someone who has a lot of big league starts under his belt the occasional day off.

160 or so at bats per year of poor offensive production is pretty significant when you're paying someone 20 million a year. From what I've heard Schwarber's minor league track record against lefties is rather good. If he can manage to put together an OPS of around 750 against lefties, while Heyward continues to struggle to the tune of around 660 or so, I'll be curious if there will be consideration of putting Baez in a Center Field platoon (atleast in smaller parks).