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stitchface

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Everything posted by stitchface

  1. stitchface
    what exactly defines "dating" in high school?
  2. stitchface
    I said a pain in the ass not hard . . . lol. It takes forever and its a walk from BART after the game with the trolleys absolutely packed. BART also doesn't run super late so you risk missing the last train if the game goes extra innings.
  3. stitchface
    most likely. truth is the Giants and 49ers stadiums are a pain in the ass to get to so a well thought out stadium probably would have worked. the existing Coliseum is not nice and is a not great neighborhood (probably an understatement). The A's have a character all their own and always have felt less corporate to me from letting the neighborhoods kids in for free, the reasonable prices and the odd characters in the stands. Giants games feel sterile and the damn fans can't stay in their seats or off their phones. but, the younger fans, if there are any, will pick up the local team, especially if they win. Unless they have a dad or mom that does things like post on this site . . .
  4. stitchface
    I really didn't think Jordan Morris had it in him . . . what a cross! Awful game (and I only watched the second half)
  5. stitchface
    funny to have a picture of pulisic on the promo
  6. stitchface
    thread titles have taken a massive turn for the boring recently.
  7. stitchface
    a projection is not the same as a probability they will win a game - it's an estimation of how many they will over the season.
  8. stitchface
    it's not probability. that's what you seem to not get.
  9. stitchface
    so, if a team goes 10-6 over a stretch in July, you'll bump your projection by four games?
  10. stitchface
    which sixteen games were removed?
  11. stitchface
    God? 78 for sure.
  12. stitchface
    hard to be too interested in this game anyway, isn't it?
  13. stitchface
    disagree. 78 wins is based on their opponents and the odds of winning each game - it's not a coin flip in every game. if the first 16 games are all against the 5 worst teams in baseball or the 5 best teams in baseball makes a big difference. being a .500 team does not mean you have a 50/50 chance in every game. the probability of winning is not fixed as it is in a coin flip
  14. stitchface
    but in your coin flip example, you know it's 50-50. In this case, you don't. so, if you thought this was a 78 win team to change and say this is still a 78 win team that's going to win 82, is probably not sound thinking. if the new information says this is an 82 win team, ok.
  15. stitchface
    what is your premise then? That they will play at the predicted win rate for the rest of the season but bank the extra wins from exceeding that projection so far? I don't think there is any value to that because the original projected win rate was just a guess to begin with.
  16. stitchface
    well, which has more predictive value after 16 games - won-loss record or run differential? if you want to know the answer, the updated projection above probably answers it for us.
  17. stitchface
    I'm joking about the bet - I think one approach would be to see where the predictive value of rd stabilizes.
  18. stitchface
    is there no security at that stadium? I mean, that goes on for a couple minutes and the only stadium personnel seems to be the woman in the red shirt who wisely just walks away.
  19. stitchface
    care to make it interesting? lol
  20. stitchface
    the engineer part of my brain wants to quantify and plot this . . . we could then assign posters ratings based on their emotional over-reaction to winning and losing streaks, injuries, trades etc. Could also be interesting in game threads . . .
  21. stitchface
    well, you don't have any accuracy to begin with, which was kind of my point.
  22. stitchface
    That seems a bit simplistic . . . you would need to consider the opposition to say they banked three wins. This seems especially true in the current competitive (or not) landscape. In other words, wins against the A's tell you less than wins against the Brewers. Gets even more complicated when you consider starting pitchers and how really bad teams can be really tough when they have a good starter. The schedule so far doesn't seem that soft though including the Rangers, Brewers, and Dodgers. The Cubs still seem to me to be caught in the mediocre middle.
  23. stitchface
    I'm all in - light the beam!
  24. stitchface
    I am, however, feeling quite confident in Wisdom hitting 86 home runs.
  25. stitchface
    still fully expecting a stretch of losing 12 of 15 - maybe two!
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