the splendid splinter

It's the author who says Fleita's optimism is off the charts, but that's just Oneri. What did Fleita really say? 1) Pawelek is smiling 2) Pawelek is lefty 3) We think he has a delivery he can repeat. 4) Something about dots. There are lots of 86 mph wild lefties who don't turn out much. And there are lots of guys with smiles that don't work out. That Fleita doesn't know how dots get connected probably means that pawelek hasn't put anything together yet, but still could. Really the only thing of substance that Fleita said that the author chose to quote was that Fleita thinks Mark is perhaps starting to repeat his delivery. Hopefully it's true and it will pay off. Often a prospect isn't going to make the majors doing what worked in high school. In those cases, I think it's entirely appropriate to make corrections so that eventually a guy can succeed in the majors and stay healthy besided. If so, having a struggle period during adaptation is neither surprising nor something to mock. But, whether Fleita and the staff know what's best, of course, that is not so clear. The "starting to repeat his delivery" gush is also somewhat too reminiscent of what Fleita gushed about Veal shortly before he got off to his horrible start this season. Looks to me like a little different product Fleita was handed from Stockstill as opposed to what Wilken and his staff is handing Fleita and his staff and you can see it with the production of the Wilken regimes players

Home Unfiltered Articles Newsletter Statistics Fantasy Events Radio Glossary Search Arizona DiamondbacksAtlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red SoxChicago CubsChicago White SoxCincinnati RedsCleveland IndiansColorado RockiesDetroit TigersFlorida MarlinsHouston AstrosKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles DodgersMilwaukee BrewersMinnesota TwinsNew York MetsNew York YankeesOakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresSan Francisco GiantsSeattle MarinersSt. Louis CardinalsTampa Bay Devil RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals << Previous Article Prospectus Q&A (05/27) << Previous Column Wait 'Til Next Year (05/22) Next Column >> Wait 'Til Next Year (05/29) Next Article >> Every Given Sunday (05/27) May 27, 2007 Wait 'Til Next Year The Scouting Directors, NL Central by Bryan Smith Printer- friendly Contact Author This series is my attempt to identify the drafting tendencies of Major League scouting directors. In looking at the scouting directors, I'm hoping that the past might tell us something about the future. I'm analyzing them in multiple categories: Best Player Produced, Best Prospect in Minors, Notable Steals (any notable player that was drafted after round five), Five-Round Strategy (total picks in first round divided by college and high school selections), and Strategy in a Nutshell (subjective look at the scouting director's choices). Finally, I use this information to look into the 2007 Draft Crystal Ball and determine if we can forecast choices merely based upon previous tendencies. Today, we move to the NL Central. You can find the AL West here, the NL West here, and the AL Central here. Chicago Cubs Scouting Director: Tim Wilken (Drafts run: 2006, Devil Rays 2005, Blue Jays 1996-2000) Best Player Produced: Vernon Wells (1st round, 1997) or Michael Young (5th round, 1997) Best Prospect in Minors: Jeremy Hellickson (3rd round, 2005) Notable Steals: Reed Johnson (17th round, 1999), Jay Gibbons (14th round, 1998), Orlando Hudson (43rd round, 1997), Mark Hendrickson (20th round, 1997) Five-Round Strategy: 34 total picks. 44.1% college, 44.1% high school, 5.9% Latin, 2.9% junior college. Strategy in a Nutshell: Landing Wilken as scouting director was a coup for the Cubs, as he's long been considered one of the best talent evaluators in the business. Hitter or pitcher, college or high school, Puerto Rican or American, it’s hard to spot biases in the way Wilken drafts. Whoever he has evaluated as the best player available, he will take. Wilken does evaluate differently, as he's made as many scratch their heads in the past over a pick like Alex Rios as they do now with Jeff Samardzija. But look for Wilken’s legacy to grow with the Cubs, as a bigger pocketbook should lend to more late-round steals. 2007 Draft Crystal Ball: While I have not used inside info in this section before, our own Kevin Goldstein has called Wilken's affinity for Josh Vitters the "draft's worst-kept secret." This doesn't necessarily defy his previous selections, so barring a late interest in Matt Wieters if he drops to the Cubs, we'll project Vitters here. Cincinnati Reds Scouting Director: Chris Buckley (Drafts Run: 2006, Toronto Blue Jays 2001-2003) The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web. Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in. << Previous Article Prospectus Q&A (05/27) << Previous Column Wait 'Til Next Year (05/22) Next Column >> Wait 'Til Next Year (05/29) Next Article >> Every Given Sunday (05/27) RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Prospectus Today: Wrapping up the Playoffs' ... Prospectus Toolbox: On Awards and Statistic... Prospectus Matchups: Me So Worthy, or Unwort... Nippon Prospectus: The NPB Playoff Picture Playoff Prospectus: There's No Place Like Ho... MORE FROM MAY 27, 2007 Every Given Sunday: Harvesting Pirates Prospectus Q&A: Jack McKeon Nationals Treasure?: Green Initiatives in DC MORE BY BRYAN SMITH 2007-06-05 - Wait 'Til Next Year: My Guys on Draft Day 2007-05-31 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-29 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-27 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-22 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-20 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-15 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... More... MORE WAIT 'TIL NEXT YEAR 2007-06-05 - Wait 'Til Next Year: My Guys on Draft Day 2007-05-31 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-29 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-27 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-22 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-20 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... 2007-05-15 - Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors,... More... Baseball Prospectus Home | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy | Contact Us Copyright © 1996-2007 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.

Sure its good to get excited about our prospects at the lower level, its been awhile since we had quite a few of them to talk about. Keep getting excited.

Great story, thank you for sharing, its a very good feel good story and what real baseball is about, thank you!

Sounds like you and Wilken are really tight?

I assume you mean 1st 5 rounds? Not many teams do. But Walker, Hammel, Sonnanstine, Jennings, Riggans, etc. is not a bad group of post 10th rd. selections. Also Perez their Cf at Montgomery who hit over 300 last season in the Cal League and once again at Montgomery a 7th round pick and a chance to be a real good player and Ryan Royster who as 20 yr old hit 329 at Columbus as a 8th rounder in 2004 and led their club to a championship this yr.

That would have been logical: he was really on a roll the last weeks of the season. I still think he'll go to Daytona to start the 2008 season though. Yeah, I agree. I think he and Papelbon will get quick promotions to Tennessee if they perform anywhere like they did this season in the pen. You can throw Lambert in that mix with his curve ball which is a big out pitch for him.

At first I thought I would leave this alone, but the more I thought about it I couldnt let it go. If you dont want to give scouts or Wilken his do ( his track record is 2nd to none) you'll just have to live with that yourself. When your at 3 different places with 3 different ideas of player developement and your still successful at getting players/pitchers of quality, somewhere its stops being a fluke and player developement all the credit, it just means your better than the people your scouting against and you have talent to select. Thats just the way I see it!!!

Prior and his agent told the Twins not to select him and with Mauer being a local and signable became the logical choice for the Twins. Also Ryan being lucky can be questioned also, 1989 draft which Ryan was in charge as scouting director for the Twins, netted 2 rookies of the yr which included Chuck Knoblauch and Marty Cordova, it also two pitchers that won over 100 career games as pitchers in Denny Naegle and Scott Erickson. It also Mike Trombley who pitched well over 10 yrs and succesful and solid utility player for many years and 52nd round Denny Hocking, so luck? I dont think so, very good talent evaluator as a scout, YES!

Good homework. For some reason thou, Wilken and his scouts have had good history of making lower draft picks work. I was just trying to say, dont give up on some of their lower picks, they might be better than you think.

Maybe Riccardi learned from DePo to fear the media...MacDonald should send a check to Plaschke. Ricciardi and Depooooo wouldnt know a prospect if it were Babe Ruth in front of them. DePo gets no credit for Kemp, Loney, and Martin? . Not at all period, they were all signed and drafted by Logan White who should be getting some considerations for a Gm, all three of these guys were drafted and signed before Mr Personality came to the Dodgers and White is still with the Dodgers.Tell the truth, did DePo sleep with your wife? People need to know the scoreboard and the fact is Logan White had everything to do with Kemp, Loney and Martin and Depo had nothing to do with them! DePo is the one who didn't trade them off for marginal veterans. Thats good but I think Hillary Clinton or John Kerry would know not to trade those players and Im sure White would have argued quite a bit not to do so. Also Depo's buddy Ricciardi is very famous for letting go of Delgado, Carpenter and Escobar without getting a drop of water for those players and they're still 500 6years later after he took over for a 500 club. Also traded Izturris/Quantril for Prokopec/Ricketts when he could have had Gagne Well then maybe we should look to Hilary Clinton and John Kerry as Hendry's replacement, because he's sure guilty of it. Nice how you move the argument off of DePo and to Riccardi when your points fail. Additionally, DePo should be credited for Eithier. Well this posting started with the signing of Mcdonald which is a result of Ricciardi! As most of the good posters know that Ricciardi/Depodesta were together at Oakland.

Raisin good point on the Home runs on Roquet. I'm not making an excuse for Roquet but I think being a converted guy and pitching alot less than Wuertz at this time of their careers, also this is Rouquet 1st full season albeit at almost 24yrs old which most of the pro guys would say he's got a "young arm". So next year maybe we'll see even more improvement for him. Pretty good 1st year for Rockey.

I wouldn't consider Hill a late pick or luck at the stage of the 4th rd. That's where you select a avg. major league player, for a starter that a #4 spot. He's likely exceeded that but not to the point where it's luck moreso than a player slightly doing better, especially with the flaws he had at Michigan. teams may be looking for a guy who can be an average ML player or a #4, but in reality the odds of them getting that guy in the fourth round are roughly 1 in 20. Looking from 1990-96 drafts in the fourth round here are guys that I included to be average ML guys. 1996 0 30 1995 2 30 Russ Ortiz, Adam Everett* 1994 1 27 Danny Graves 1993 1 28 Billy Koch* 1992 1 28 Joey Hamilton 1991 3 28 Terry Adams, Brian Boehringer, Paul Byrd 1990 3 26 James Baldwin, Garrett Anderson, Mike Meyers 11 197 Koch and Everett didn't sign so they may have been tough sign guys who slipped. There are a couple solid players there, but I am including LOOGYs....as average ML players and success picks. They may be looking for a guy who can be an average player with the fourth pick. They won't get it very often. So in effect, they only get it if they're lucky or rich. Llord good draft research! Little trouble with Anderson as an avg player, pretty good career, 297 hitter and will probably end up hitting 300 home runs. The Cubs can hope that Barney becomes an avg player being a 4th rounder and if he does great.

He signed before the draft because he was a fifth year senior, he most certainly would have been drafted if he hadn't signed with a team. I believe the reason he went undrafted before was because he shifted to pitching very late. Very well put raisin! Read in an article that Wilken viewed Roquet as an extra pick because the Cubs didnt have picks in rounds 2 thru 4. So if you put Colvin, Sammy, Lansford and Roquet together, its not too bad considering they didnt have those picks.

They generally look " uninspiring" to most until the light at the other starts to show.

Pat and Ron said that the second one SHOULD have been scored a passed ball, but that the official score for both of them is WP as of now. Any chance the official scorer played catcher for his t-ball team?

Its never to early and they are close to Top 10 if not on the back side and Wyatt and Wright are in the Top 20 possibly, along with Russell and Acosta. Hrm, you're much higher on Wyatt than I am. True Cf and can hit some and takes his walks, but Raisin your probably right, but Ill bet he's close to top 30 baseball americas list.

Maybe Riccardi learned from DePo to fear the media...MacDonald should send a check to Plaschke. Ricciardi and Depooooo wouldnt know a prospect if it were Babe Ruth in front of them. DePo gets no credit for Kemp, Loney, and Martin? . Not at all period, they were all signed and drafted by Logan White who should be getting some considerations for a Gm, all three of these guys were drafted and signed before Mr Personality came to the Dodgers and White is still with the Dodgers.Tell the truth, did DePo sleep with your wife? People need to know the scoreboard and the fact is Logan White had everything to do with Kemp, Loney and Martin and Depo had nothing to do with them! DePo is the one who didn't trade them off for marginal veterans. Thats good but I think Hillary Clinton or John Kerry would know not to trade those players and Im sure White would have argued quite a bit not to do so. Also Depo's buddy Ricciardi is very famous for letting go of Delgado, Carpenter and Escobar without getting a drop of water for those players and they're still 500 6years later after he took over for a 500 club. Also traded Izturris/Quantril for Prokopec/Ricketts when he could have had Gagne

Maybe Riccardi learned from DePo to fear the media...MacDonald should send a check to Plaschke. Ricciardi and Depooooo wouldnt know a prospect if it were Babe Ruth in front of them. DePo gets no credit for Kemp, Loney, and Martin? . Not at all period, they were all signed and drafted by Logan White who should be getting some considerations for a Gm, all three of these guys were drafted and signed before Mr Personality came to the Dodgers and White is still with the Dodgers.Tell the truth, did DePo sleep with your wife? People need to know the scoreboard and the fact is Logan White had everything to do with Kemp, Loney and Martin and Depo had nothing to do with them!

Its never to early and they are close to Top 10 if not on the back side and Wyatt and Wright are in the Top 20 possibly, along with Russell and Acosta.

Well put Outshined! At 21 yrs old where most guys his age would be just starting at Boise tops, he competed very well at Tennessee/Daytona. Personally I think he's got the whole ball of wax, including an arm as some (scouts have described as avg or better). Pretty sure he had well over 10 assists which isnt the complete way of grading an arm but his arm strength and accuracy sounds like its at least avg or better. Also Outshined I'll pass on the soap !!

Maybe Riccardi learned from DePo to fear the media...MacDonald should send a check to Plaschke. Ricciardi and Depooooo wouldnt know a prospect if it were Babe Ruth in front of them. DePo gets no credit for Kemp, Loney, and Martin? . Not at all period, they were all signed and drafted by Logan White who should be getting some considerations for a Gm, all three of these guys were drafted and signed before Mr Personality came to the Dodgers and White is still with the Dodgers.

Maybe Riccardi learned from DePo to fear the media...MacDonald should send a check to Plaschke. Ricciardi and Depooooo wouldnt know a prospect if it were Babe Ruth in front of them.

I was hoping for a better response. :( i just love that reference. i had to post it! :-k Not sure I can agree that it doesn't take a special ability to recognize talent. There are a lot of college players that put up great numbers. Being able to map which of those players will be able to successfully transition their skills to the pros is not straightforward, though, otherwise first round picks wouldn't fail at such a high rate. If a scouting department can find players that have a lower failure rate, that is most certainly valuable. It is difficult to separate the quality of the inputs from the process, though. Hmm...I wonder if some of the tools I use in business to do that could be applied here. I'd actually argue that drafting players in the last ten years has become much more numbers oriented and that the success rate of first rounders is increasing. Besides most of the pitchers who fail fail because of injuries. The analyst in me says avoid at all costs. The eye can catch the bad mechanics that cause injuries -- but more often than not it doesn't matter: Mark Prior. In sum drafting pitching is bad. Pay for it on the open market. Or draft it late hoping you get lucky (rich hill etc) With your last statement then, you would agree with the way the draft went with the Cubs selecting many more players than pitchers earlier in the draft. Only 4 pitchers selected in the 1st 15 rounds, 6th/11th/12th/14th with those being Lambert , Siegfried, Acosta and Russell and three of those being left handers and all having decent moments at times this summer. drafts arent won and lost with picks 5+. If you get one of those right you're either lucky, have great player development or threw a lot of money at a guy who was a tough sign. Really rounds 3-4 arent useful much either. You win on picks 1 and 2. I wouldnt have made the picks he made thats for sure. Well maybe we better make you the scoting director, Wilken who's considered one of the tops doesnt look very good according to your criteria and all of his picks look horrible.

I was hoping for a better response. :( i just love that reference. i had to post it! :-k Not sure I can agree that it doesn't take a special ability to recognize talent. There are a lot of college players that put up great numbers. Being able to map which of those players will be able to successfully transition their skills to the pros is not straightforward, though, otherwise first round picks wouldn't fail at such a high rate. If a scouting department can find players that have a lower failure rate, that is most certainly valuable. It is difficult to separate the quality of the inputs from the process, though. Hmm...I wonder if some of the tools I use in business to do that could be applied here. I'd actually argue that drafting players in the last ten years has become much more numbers oriented and that the success rate of first rounders is increasing. Besides most of the pitchers who fail fail because of injuries. The analyst in me says avoid at all costs. The eye can catch the bad mechanics that cause injuries -- but more often than not it doesn't matter: Mark Prior. In sum drafting pitching is bad. Pay for it on the open market. Or draft it late hoping you get lucky (rich hill etc) With your last statement then, you would agree with the way the draft went with the Cubs selecting many more players than pitchers earlier in the draft. Only 4 pitchers selected in the 1st 15 rounds, 6th/11th/12th/14th with those being Lambert , Siegfried, Acosta and Russell and three of those being left handers and all having decent moments at times this summer.