LA's average park factor for 2001-2006 is .900 and Seattle's is .883. Safeco has been (marginally) a harder place to hit for the last six years. Six years is a little subjective. LA was tougher last year (which is where I got my info), Safeco was tougher in '04, LA in 03, etc. Some date ranges favor them, and others LA. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor Any time frame is subjective, but going with six years is better than going with one year. Why did you pick last year instead of this year, when LA is actually the 5th best hitter's park in the league? As for Beltre, I'm not so naive as to believe that there's a 0% chance that he had used PED's, but PECOTA projected him to decline, just as I imagine it will predict Soriano to decline this year. It's not unusual for a player to have a career year and never come close to it again. Which, by the way, is another reason Hendry really failed this past offseason. If DLee repeated his 2005, the Cubs had a shot at being a .500 team, but the odds are that Lee, while being a very good player, will never have a year like 2005. I'm afraid that Hendry will expect similar numbers from Barrett next year, for example, when making decisions. Chances are that Barrett will be one of the better offensive catchers next year but will not be as good as he was this year. I would agree that Soriano, Lee, and Barrett would probably never reach their career year-but I think that Lee, and then Barrett has a better chance. Why? They have both made adjustments to actually how they approach the at-bat. The change of stance for Lee was the biggest cause of his numbers. Because of that, he is far more likely to come closer to 2005 than other players when he has overcome his biggest weakness. This can compare to Sosa who overcame his biggest weakness (improved pitch selection) and had several years of career numbers. Barrett has been a much better hitter this year for a good reason. When he came to the Cubs he was a dead pull hitter-everything was right down the third base line. He has really worked on hitting to all fields, and that has made his numbers go up each of the last 3 years, including his height in 2006. I think that will probably be his best year, but I also think he has the approach needed to put up a few more years close to his 2006. As far as I know, Soriano has not changed anything in his approach, but instead is just having an amazing season (same as Beltre did). These examples are far more likely to regress to their previous norms-the only thing that gives me hope for Soriano is that it is not all tied to his hitting this year, but still I believe Soriano is much less likely to come close to his career year than Lee or Barrett are.