CubColtPacer
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Everything posted by CubColtPacer
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From what I had heard, it's the coach of Wichita State.
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I pretty much agree with that. I just found it alarming that they are going to skip him now. Either put him out there as your 5th starter and see what he can do, or put someone else in there. Skipping him is just delaying the inevitable. Z is the one who is in danger of abuse-if you're going to start him every 5th day anyway, you might as well skip the 5th starter and let everyone else pitch on the 5th day as well. Until a 5th starter option that will be better than the top 4 pitchers emerges, the less starts that spot gets and the more the team will win.
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stop spending big $ on setup men, please
CubColtPacer replied to abuck1220's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Ray King, Julian Tavarez, Dave Veres, Mike Timlin, Steve Kline. All signed for $2M or more. That was easy. - I thought King came in a trade with Atlanta - I'm nearly positive that Timlin came over as part of the Rolen trade - Veres came over in the trade with Daryl Kile - Kline came over in a trade for Tatis Only one of those guys was signed as a free agent by stl - Tavarez and that was only to a two year deal worth a total of $4.2M. The other guys were all acquired as pieces of a trade. So I think my statement stands. Maybe the letter of the point, but weren't you trying to make the point that St. Louis realizes the low value of the bullpen and weren't willing to expend a large amount of resources to build a strong bullpen and instead go to their farm system to build it? St. Louis actually did more than the Cubs-they put such a strong emphasis on their bullpen that they actually went out like you said and traded for several different high priced bullpen pitchers. They spent that part of their payroll on the bullpen and gave up talent to get these pitchers, and their bullpen was made up at one time of almost nobody from their farm system. -
The tough thing about the Guzman/Miller debate is that there is very little information about both of them. They both are trying to come back, and so there is a limited sample size on each of them. In 06, Miller pitched better than Guzman in the ML: Miller-21.2 IP, 4.57 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 20K/18BB Guzman-56.0 IP, 7.39 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 60K/37BB Here are Guzman's numbers broken down as starter and reliever Starter: 42.2 IP, 9.28 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, 46K/29BB Reliever: 13.1 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 14K/8 BB Then, in ST Miller outpitched him again: Miller-17.1 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 16K/4BB Guzman-13.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 7 K/1BB When looking through the box scores, I actually found an extra outing for Guzman that they missed (if you add up the IP, they don't quite add up, neither do a few of the statistics). Here are his starter relief numbers for spring: Starter: 3.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 2.40 WHIP, 0K/1BB Reliever: 13.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8K/1BB Even though Guzman was doing worse overall, it was Guzman who was benefiting by pitching later in games against minor league hitters while Miller usually pitched to the major league ones. They admittedly didn't give Guzman enough chances to start during ST. The one start that he did, he struggled mightily to miss bats. After that start, they also had him relieve Miller the next start so they could see both of them against the same lineup (although the team was starting to substitute their minor leaguers in at the end). Miller clearly outperformed Guzman that day as well. Between last year and spring, Guzman has had 46 IP starting in the major leagues compared to Miller's 40 IP. Miller outperformed Guzman in those IP, and it wasn't even somewhat close. The same can be said for Guzman that can be said for Miller-when his FB drops in velocity because of him starting and Guzman cannot simply throw it past major league hitters, he struggles, and the results are a lot worse than Miller's. Finally, if Guzman has the much better stuff, then when he's on he should be much better than Miller could ever be with his limited stuff. Here are their best 3 outings of either last year or spring against major league lineups: Pitcher A: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 8K/3BB 5.1 IP, 3H, 1 ER, 8K/3BB 4.2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4K/2BB Pitcher B: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2K/3BB 5.0 IP, 3H, 0 ER, 5K/0BB 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R/1ER, 8K/4BB Even though Guzman had more starts in able to put up 3 great starts, I don't really see much of a difference between the two's best starts based on the numbers. The difference is that Miller has other starts that could legitimately be put up there, while Guzman does not have any others that would qualify. Finally, it comes to upside. Clearly, Guzman is the better option here, and if Miller continues to struggle as much as he did on Sunday Guzman will be given the chance to continue learning on the job. However, based on all of this, Miller has earned the right to start for now in a year where the Cubs cannot let Guzman struggle in the way that he's struggled as a starter. If Miller proves to be similar to how Guzman has shown he can start right now, then he needs to go after another start or two because Guzman could produce that or improve. However, that is not going to be the case necessarily. You don't dominate a lineup like Miller did against San Fran a couple of weeks ago and then forget how to do it against similar lineups during the regular season. Now, Miller is not going to consistently do that-he's going to have a decent amount of outings where he gets rocked if his pitches don't have the movement on them that he showed during September and the spring. Hopefully he also can give a decent amount of good outings as well, which Guzman has not shown he can do from the starter's position.
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I don't know where you're getting that impression. The people calling for Miller to be removed want Guzman in his stead, not Prior. It's more an overall impression since comming to this board. I've been suprised by some people calling for players to be removed or play this guy not that guy. I also remember a few posts about Prior and Miller from spring training and remember seeing frustration about Prior not making it again. I'm just wondering how much of this impatients stems from anger at Prior rather then anger at Miller. If there is anger at Miller for one bad start then I'm worried. If Miller came out with good stuff and got rocked around, I think some would be optimistic his command would improve and he'd be servicable. He didn't have either of them, and there isn't much reason to believe he'll ever recover his old form. I still don't know why Piniella picked him to be the fifth starter, Miller's recent history isn't impressive and I think its stupid to give away a spot based on spring training results. I don't think any of the "impatience" really has anything to do with Prior. Like TT said, we wanted Guzman to win the spot over Miller. If Guzman started and had a rough outing, he would still have the stuff and upside to bounce back. Does anyone really think Miller has become a finesse pitcher like some have made him out to be? I always thought that was a baseless argument. I don't think he's a finesse pitcher. From the 5-6 starts I have seen of him since he came back from his injury, his pitches had a lot of movement on them-which allowed him to get lots of swings and misses and helped minimize his mistakes. From the report yesterday, that wasn't true yesterday. If he has one more start and doesn't have that movement on his pitches, he will need to be replaced immediately after that start.
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I don't know where you're getting that impression. The people calling for Miller to be removed want Guzman in his stead, not Prior. It's more an overall impression since comming to this board. I've been suprised by some people calling for players to be removed or play this guy not that guy. I also remember a few posts about Prior and Miller from spring training and remember seeing frustration about Prior not making it again. I'm just wondering how much of this impatients stems from anger at Prior rather then anger at Miller. If there is anger at Miller for one bad start then I'm worried. I think that one thing has to be remembered is that most people are not that familiar with the new stuff that Miller has. Most people weren't watching by the time Miller took the mound in late September last year. In spring, most people didn't get to see very much of him either. So they can only hear reports of his possible stuff, and Miller's stuff doesn't sound that impressive because he doesn't have the high velocity. So when they finally do see a start of his, and Miller looks really bad with his stuff not fooling anyone, it's easy to say that his stuff is not any better than that. Is it better than that? I would say it would have to be, because he was fooling hitters both in September and during the spring. I can't say that for sure though, and I can't blame people who thought Guzman should have been the guy who made it out of ST and pointing to that start as evidence of that.
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How do we feel about Jacque hitting 2nd? I was hoping that Murton would be our 2 hitter - ? Murton will be our #2 hitter most of the time he's in the game. When Jacque hits #2, that's because Floyd is playing. BTW, I like Jacque in the 2 spot over some of the other options. You don't want DeRosa batting 2nd against right-handers because he is much better against left-handers than right-handers, and Jacque is probably better suited for that slot than people like Floyd, Barrett, or Izturis in this lineup.
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Murton getting benched again for lesser player
CubColtPacer replied to RegulusBlue's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
He is. I don't understand why some people are so up in arms over this situation. It's hardly a straight platoon. Murton has gotten four of the six starts so far in left field, and the Cubs have only faced a lefty in one of those games. How many times has he been yanked for Theriot as a "defensive replacement" in about the 7th inning? Not only should he get the majority of the starts, but he should finish the games. He's not terribly slow and Theriot isn't much better in LF (if at all). It's a move that's been made a few times and, imo, is just wasting our already thin bench. Murton has gotten pulled for Theriot once in his 4 starts. Murton finished 2 games, and the other game (yesterday) he got pulled for Jones as part of a double switch when it was thought that Cotts would have to pitch a couple of innings, and Murton was the guy who batted last. Now Theriot has come in for Floyd both times Floyd has played. -
Murton getting benched again for lesser player
CubColtPacer replied to RegulusBlue's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Is there a problem with playing the hot hand? Yes, yes there is. So when Murton was slumping horribly last season you'd still play him? This isn't the prospect development league. It's MLB. Wins and losses matter. Murton isn't some wildcard unknown, he put up an 800+ OPS last year in pretty much a full season. Floyd needs to be pretty much at his best to be worthy of more than just giving him a day off. "Playing the hot hand" is way too arbitrary and puts too much pressure on either player to produce or get benched. Either platoon them, or let one get the lions share of the starts. Considering there's probably not going to be a significant difference between Floyd and Murton v. RHP(at least one large enough to justify stunting further development of Murton, the difference between them defensively, etc.), then Murton should be starting the majority of the time. First off, Murton is starting the majority of the time. He has started 4 games to Floyd's 2, and that includes 3 out of the 5 games against right-handed pitching. Second, you complain about the sample size of a hot hand, and then say that Floyd is only worthy of playing time at his very best and that there will likely not be a significant difference between Floyd and Murton against right-handers? Floyd against right-handers the last 5 years: 2002: .306/.420/.544 2003: .305/.394/.535 2004: .269/.373/.512 2005: .290/.382/.533 2006: .266/.342/.423 Murton 2006: .295/.356/.426 The question is how much you believe Floyd's 2006 was because of the injuries, and how much value you put in Murton's 2nd half against right-handers. If Floyd rebounds though (which the way he's crushing the ball right now seems at least pretty probable), Murton is not likely at all to consistently put up around a 900 OPS or more against right-handers like Floyd did consistently before 2006. The fact that even with these stats that Murton has played the majority of games against right-handers show how much the management values him, his development and defense along with rest for Floyd more than the other way around. If the only factor was offensive production, Floyd probably should have played a game or two more than he already has though, not a game or two less (even though I personally like them both developing Murton and giving Floyd rest by only picking their spots to insert Floyd). -
INDemand reaches deal for MLB Extra Innings Package!
CubColtPacer replied to Abe Frohman's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
In what way is it expensive? From what I've gathered, it's like $5.00 a month more on the cable bill to receive HD signals. Is that not accurate? HD tv's, on the other hand, do seem pretty expensive still. But, I'm hoping to buy one soon since they aren't nearly as expensive as they were when they first came out. Its the TVs/recievers that are the real expensive parts. An extra 10 bucks a month for HD programing is really not that big of a deal. Its not something Im really all that interested in though. I dont think its worth all of the cost involved Well, it's coming sooner than you think then. In the next 10 years most of the TVs in the country will be HD compatible, and when that happens more and more people will go to HD. I'm not that impressed by it either, but it will expand rapidly with the FCC pushing it along, and I do know a lot of people who are impressed and will get it after it becomes more prevalent. -
INDemand reaches deal for MLB Extra Innings Package!
CubColtPacer replied to Abe Frohman's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Everyone will eventually be digital. DirecTV plans to have the widest selection of HD fare sooner than the competition, but at some point they'll catch up. Didn't I hear at one point that there is a set time frame for everything to be digital, or am I thinking of something else. Here's a link that describes some of the things. Almost all TV's sold have to be digital compatible now, and in 2009 if things stay the way they are television stations will be prohibited from sending an analog signal. http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-7608_7-1016109-3.html -
I saw that people said that Miller's fastball was very straight today-can anyone comment on that? The reason Miller was getting strikeouts last year and in the spring was a fastball that while still pretty slow had tons of movement on it. If it was straight today, it would be very, very hittable. I don't think they are willing to give up on Miller after 1 start either. 1 or 2 more bad starts and they will be ready to pull him. I think they are trying to wait it out until Prior gets back so they don't have to push Guzman from bullpen to starter back to the bullpen in a month's time. Remember, Miller was effective against some major league lineups in the spring (I think he faced the entire Diamondbacks starting lineup, for example) so he's not a guarantee to be horrible every start. They might be able to ride him out for the rest of April, and they still have the option of skipping him once if they need to.
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Actually, that's what I didn't understand either. He was averaging about a K per inning both last September and in the spring, and the Brewers are going to strike out a decent amount. It might not help his run totals too much today, but Miller is likely to strike out more than 1 or 2 if he can go at least 5 innings.
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never count out the possibility. Look at Orlando (Shaq), San Antonio (Duncan) and Toronto (Bargasdigoasd) Toronto is the only good example out of the 3. They've changed the rules to make it much harder for one of the best records among the lottery teams to win since the Shaq debacle, and San Antonio had one of the worst records (or possibly the worst record-they went 20-62 because David Robinson missed almost the entire season) in the league the year they got the #1 pick.
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5 IP, 6H, 2R, 2BB, 5K.
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I agree. I think it'll be until at least mid-May or maybe even later until we get a set #2 hitter. I think Lou is going to see what Jones, MM, Izzy, and DeRosa can do in that spot for awhile before picking someone for the spot. I don't think we'll ever see a set hitter for that spot. Lou doesn't seem to like guys who cannot drive the ball well in his 6 or 7 spots. That list includes Izturis, Blanco, Theriot. It fits from his quotes earlier that people are sometimes suited for "either the 2 or the 8 spot". I think from Lou's usage of him that Murton has graduated from that distinction. Now, this means this. If only one of those 3 players are in the game, then that hitter will almost always be the number 8 hitter. If two of them are (like today) than players like Theriot or Izturis move up to number 2. With this setup, Murton will get the most starts at the #2 spot for the season Jones will get the second most ______=major dropoff here Izturis will probably get the third most Theriot the fourth most (only because he won't start that many games even though he'll play a lot). This lineup shuffling of who will be in the #2 will probably stay the entire season based on who else is in the lineup. I don't see DeRosa being a candidate right now because he is behind both Murton and Jones, and on days when Izturis or Theriot is #2 DeRosa will be needed for his pop at the 6 or 7 slot. This is not exactly what I would do, but I think this is what Lou will do based on his usage patterns so far.
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you mean Todd Walker wasn't good with the glove at first base???? :lol: I didn't think Walker was that bad with the glove last year at first. He did a good job of making the routine plays, which is the most important part, but he just doesn't have the range of somebody like Lee to snag those possible doubles down the line or the very underrated long stretch of Lee's that can make the difference on those bang bang plays at first base.
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I don't mind leaving Z in either-his pitch count isn't absurdly high, and your ace has to be given a little latitude-this is a low pressure situation to give him some latitude to work it out with a 3 run lead and nobody on. Next batter to get on Carlos will get pulled. BTW, that's one under-rated thing that I think the Cubs missed last year when Lee went down-his defense can really help the pitcher. That's 2 plays resulting in 3 extra outs for the Cubs pitchers just today.
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I was just about to post that as much as bad agressive baserunning hurt us the other day, aggressive baserunning really helped us in that inning. Izturis stretching that out into a double caused him to score later in the inning, and Lee running kept in from being an inning-ending double play. I know every time aggressive baserunning goes wrong it will get pointed out, so I did want to point out that it does work in preventing outs sometimes :D

