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Sounds good guys. Thanks for the help. I'll post my entire team just to clear up some of the questions you guys had (5x5 league with OBP instead of average) C: Geovany Soto 1B: Travis Hafner 2B: Brian Roberts SS: Jose Reyes 3B: Garrett Atkins OF: Vladimir Guerrero OF: Adam Dunn OF: Brad Hawpe Util: Carlos Pena Util: Jason Bay Bench: Nick Swisher, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson, Mike Napoli SP: Jake Peavy SP: Chris Young RP: Brandon Lyon RP: George Sherrill P: Rich Hill P: Pedro Martinez P: AJ Burnett Bench: Joe Blanton If you have any other comments that you want to add, I'd greatly appreciate it, about the closers or any other issues you see about my team. Now that I look at it, should I pick up both Wilsons and drop two people?

Are you in a different group than I am? Because I'm tied for dead last in the nsbb group with 19 out of 32. I have not picked 2 8/9 games right in 8 years. This year, I managed to miss all 4 of them. i'm in group # 20875 That's the same group. You're tied for 38th. I'm tied for 50th.

Other guys to keep an eye on are Troy Percival and Brian Wilson. Only thing with Wilson is the Giants won't win many games. I picked up Lyon (Percival and Accardo both got drafted). Is C.J. Wilson or Brian Wilson a better option? Should I pick up either? I've got Blanton as a 6th starting pitcher after Peavy, Young, Hill, Pedro, Burnett in a 1250 IP max league. If I want to pick up a 3rd closer, I'd either have to drop Blanton or my only backup at 2nd or C, Orlando Hudson or Mike Napoli.

this is a poor assessment. Why? Do you not agree that most people's expectations of Hill last year were extremely out of whack? He had a tremendous finish to the 2006 season and I think too many expected him to pick right up from that point. In April he was very good. In May-June he was average. In July-August he was slightly above average. In September he was slightly below average. In his defense it was his first year as a full time starter at the ML level, he should improve. I just believe that his ceiling is a solid #3 guy. He needs to develop another pitch to go along with his curveball. When he doesn't have his curveball he has nothing else to rely on. His fastball isn't strong enough to get by when he doesn't have his curveball. He was toying with a changeup last year, I hope that is something that has improved this year. A changeup can be tremendously effective even if it is just average. I haven't been on the Hill train either, but his ceiling is going to have a hard time being a solid #3 guy when he was a solid #2 last year.

Are you in a different group than I am? Because I'm tied for dead last in the nsbb group with 19 out of 32. I have not picked 2 8/9 games right in 8 years. This year, I managed to miss all 4 of them.

Not really. Lou already said there's no room for him on the team without a trade. The bullpen is going to be: Marmol, Howry, Wood, Wuertz, Eyre, Hart, and the loser of Lieber/Dempster/Marquis. If one of those starters get traded, then maybe Pignatiello or Lahey would get a shot.

Yeah, I don't mind this loss for Indiana. They didn't play particularly badly (although not great) but Arkansas played their A game tonight.

I'd call it a 70% chance that Gordon has surgery in the next month.

The first year that DeRosa was only used as an emergency guy at SS was last year.

Ditto, only I have Arizona instead of WVU. I've seen several and this definitely isn't his typical game. I assumed that hopefully they get past this game and he has one of his stronger games against Wisconsin because I picked them to go the sweet 16 then losing to Georgetown. . Same. I don't think Wisconsin has the talent to overcome someone like Beasley. The Badgers might make a game with USC, but at the rate things are going for the Trojans, I'm back and forth on it. OJ Mayo could kill the Badgers. Might make it a game against USC? You think a higher seeded team coached by Bo Ryan is going to lose to a lower seeded team coached by Frank Martin? I don't think you understand what Wisconsin is. Yeah, that's a strange statement. Wisconsin is not as flashy, but is monumentally better than USC or KState. If either beats Wisconsin, it'll likely be one of the top upsets of the tournament. I think KState would matchup pretty well vs. Wisconsin. If Wisconsin has to score 70 points I would think they would be in trouble. Yes, if the scoring gets that high, Wisconsin could be in trouble. Problem is, only Duke, Marquette and Purdue (Wisky's kryptonite) have scored more than 66 points against the Badgers this year. Getting it to the 70's is much, much easier said than done. On paper, I think K-State matches up well with Wisconsin. In actuality, when coaching and discipline are factored in, I think K-State is the kind of team Wisconsin is likely to feast on (slowly, of course, but surely). The Walker-Beasley duo is maybe the best in the nation. I dont see any Big 10 team that features the offense that KState has. If they can slow one of those down, I think Wis. wins very easily. Purdue may be the one team that closely resembles Kstate and Wisconsin lost both games to them. Purdue is not anything like K-State at all. No big man, balanced scoring, good defense for Purdue. If you're going to compare K-State to any of the teams in the Big 10, it would be Indiana. 2 big scorers leading the way including one of the best big men in the country. K-State averages 78.7 points per game, Indiana 75.1. Indiana shoots 46.3% from the field while K-State shoots 44.3% from the field. Both teams are athletic, undisciplined, and inconsistent. That doesn't mean Wisconsin will have a big advantage. IU had one of the two games against Wisconsin won before a banked in 3 with 4 seconds left. K-State isn't unlike teams Wisconsin has faced before though. I want to get credit for the Indiana comp, I clearly said it 5 minutes earlier. You can have credit from me, it just took me that long to look up those stats and phrase my response correctly. After I posted it, I looked back and saw your comment. Of course, the only reason you got in first was because I took the time to back mine up :D.

Ditto, only I have Arizona instead of WVU. I've seen several and this definitely isn't his typical game. I assumed that hopefully they get past this game and he has one of his stronger games against Wisconsin because I picked them to go the sweet 16 then losing to Georgetown. . Same. I don't think Wisconsin has the talent to overcome someone like Beasley. The Badgers might make a game with USC, but at the rate things are going for the Trojans, I'm back and forth on it. OJ Mayo could kill the Badgers. Might make it a game against USC? You think a higher seeded team coached by Bo Ryan is going to lose to a lower seeded team coached by Frank Martin? I don't think you understand what Wisconsin is. Yeah, that's a strange statement. Wisconsin is not as flashy, but is monumentally better than USC or KState. If either beats Wisconsin, it'll likely be one of the top upsets of the tournament. I think KState would matchup pretty well vs. Wisconsin. If Wisconsin has to score 70 points I would think they would be in trouble. Yes, if the scoring gets that high, Wisconsin could be in trouble. Problem is, only Duke, Marquette and Purdue (Wisky's kryptonite) have scored more than 66 points against the Badgers this year. Getting it to the 70's is much, much easier said than done. On paper, I think K-State matches up well with Wisconsin. In actuality, when coaching and discipline are factored in, I think K-State is the kind of team Wisconsin is likely to feast on (slowly, of course, but surely). The Walker-Beasley duo is maybe the best in the nation. I dont see any Big 10 team that features the offense that KState has. If they can slow one of those down, I think Wis. wins very easily. Purdue may be the one team that closely resembles Kstate and Wisconsin lost both games to them. Purdue is not anything like K-State at all. No big man, balanced scoring, good defense for Purdue. If you're going to compare K-State to any of the teams in the Big 10, it would be Indiana. 2 big scorers leading the way including one of the best big men in the country. K-State averages 78.7 points per game, Indiana 75.1. Indiana shoots 46.3% from the field while K-State shoots 44.3% from the field. Both teams are athletic, undisciplined, and inconsistent. That doesn't mean Wisconsin will have a big advantage. IU had one of the two games against Wisconsin won before a banked in 3 with 4 seconds left. K-State isn't unlike teams Wisconsin has faced before though.

I like. Is it that much less nasty with Piggy or Lahey instead of Marte? Or with Leiber in long relief and Hart in short relief? Especially when whoever gets the final pen spot will be basically the 25th man on the roster? Is it that much less nasty to pay more in money and prospects to upgrade it? That's the same point people make for not making the Roberts' trade. Getting Marte makes a good bullpen better. Of course, everything depends on cost. It's completely different. You are talking about getting better for 1 inning at a time, 70 games a year. With Roberts you are getting a 9-inning/ 150 game per year player. It's completely the same. You take a good situation and upgrade it to make it better. That 1 inning at a time, 70 games a year possibly could make a swing of 8-10 wins depending on the situation. I could argue the VORP of Roberts over DeRosa is less than the VORP of Marte over Pignatello or Cotts. I repeat, you make a good situation better in either case. Except in the bullpen situation, managers choose specifically what innings can go to which pitchers. Marmol, Howry, Wood, Wuertz, and Eyre can take all the significant innings. The other 2 bullpen spots just need to eat innings where the Cubs are up by more than 4 runs, the Cubs are down by more than 2, or the starter has gone out early. In essence, if you acquire Marte all that you are doing is wasting Wuertz by pushing him into throwing those insignificant innings. Is it really at all important to acquire another pitcher just to throw in those situations where the game is basically over anyway? Do you really want Eyrehead as the lone lefty in the bullpen? If the right-handers had bad splits against left-handers, then I would be worried. Howry, Wood, and Wuertz are all good against left-handers though.

That looked like traveling on Duke, but it didn't end up mattering since he missed the shot.

I wouldn't be completely sure about that. There's plenty of history of teams who have struggled with high seeds early and then gone on to do quite well in the tournament.

At halftime, it was tied at 29. In the second half, Washington State has outscored Winthrop 33-5. Ouch.

Thanks for the link. Looks like I have Brandon Lyon and C.J. Wilson available.

I like. Is it that much less nasty with Piggy or Lahey instead of Marte? Or with Leiber in long relief and Hart in short relief? Especially when whoever gets the final pen spot will be basically the 25th man on the roster? Is it that much less nasty to pay more in money and prospects to upgrade it? That's the same point people make for not making the Roberts' trade. Getting Marte makes a good bullpen better. Of course, everything depends on cost. It's completely different. You are talking about getting better for 1 inning at a time, 70 games a year. With Roberts you are getting a 9-inning/ 150 game per year player. It's completely the same. You take a good situation and upgrade it to make it better. That 1 inning at a time, 70 games a year possibly could make a swing of 8-10 wins depending on the situation. I could argue the VORP of Roberts over DeRosa is less than the VORP of Marte over Pignatello or Cotts. I repeat, you make a good situation better in either case. Except in the bullpen situation, managers choose specifically what innings can go to which pitchers. Marmol, Howry, Wood, Wuertz, and Eyre can take all the significant innings. The other 2 bullpen spots just need to eat innings where the Cubs are up by more than 4 runs, the Cubs are down by more than 2, or the starter has gone out early. In essence, if you acquire Marte all that you are doing is wasting Wuertz by pushing him into throwing those insignificant innings. Is it really at all important to acquire another pitcher just to throw in those situations where the game is basically over anyway?

I just finished a draft, and I have an amazing team except for one part-relief pitching. My only relief pitcher is George Sherill (drafted in the 22nd round). Closers just continued to go 3 rounds before I was ready to take them. So...are there any closers that will likely be on my waiver wire? Are there any middle relievers who I should pick up who have a good chance to jump into the closers role during the season? I have two RP slots, so no matter what I need to pick up a person just to start there, even if he picks up no saves and only good numbers in the other categories.

Wood went an inning, gave up a couple hits and a run but did strike out 2. Hill managed to go 1 1/3 innings. He only gave up 1 hit but walked 6 guys.

Jeez. 2 games in a row. He didn't hit a home run yesterday, just an RBI double.

Never mind on that..the bad bears are back.

Baylor is pretty dependent on how well they shoot. They're 6/22 from 3 point land right now. From watching most of their game though, I wouldn't be surprised to see Baylor get this within 6 points by the end of this game.

Teams get moved by seed line, yes, but often to account for conference conflicts. So, obviously teams don't get moved from the 8 line to the 9 line, or vice versa, since that doesn't do anything. Same with 4 to 5 and 2 to 3, which are the only other seed lines that are consecutively expected to be played. 1 seeds are never moved off the 1 seed line (since the whole bracket is built around those 1 seeds). If anything, the gap between a 2 and 3, a 4 and 5, or an 8 and 9 is smaller than it should be as the result of teams moving seed lines. The only team this year which obviously appeared to be moved down a line was Marquette (since there were already 4 BE teams in the 4/5/12/13 bracket in Pitt, UConn, ND and Villanova). They move many more teams than that though. For example, when Georgia came into the field 10 teams ended up getting moved just from that change alone.

Yuck. That's 13 walks now for Hill in only 12 1/3 innings. I'm not worried about him long-term, but he needs to find some semblance of control in the next start or two or it will bleed over into the season.

Why the .5's? The way I see it: Purdue - 6 seed - 1 win Michigan State - 5 seed - 1 win Wisconsin - 3 seed - 2 wins Indiana - 8 seed - 1 win Which comes out to 5 expected wins. Despite how consecutive-seed games may seem like toss-ups, the higher seed is still the expected favorite. I'm trying to account for those consecutive seed games, and yes I don't think that there is always a favorite there. The committee moves teams all the time 1 line up or down from how they rank them in order to make the bracket work. We have no idea which teams they moved during the process, so it makes sense to account for that by making consecutive seed game tossups. If I was actually doing a formula for it, I'd also make the difference smaller as you get to the higher number seeds. The difference between a typical 1 seed and a typical 2 seed is bigger than the difference between a typical 2 and a typical 3, and that continues all the way down the line. By the time you get to the 7-11 range, many of those teams are very similar as there is much smaller differences between each seed line.