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Mephistopheles

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Everything posted by Mephistopheles

  1. Mephistopheles
    Larry Suarez
  2. Mephistopheles
    You didn't need to word it that way.
  3. Mephistopheles
    Statistics 101: The odds of a .250 hitter hitting at least .500 in 6 ABs is 16.9% The odds of a .320 hitter hitting under .167 in 6 ABs is 37.8% Those are some pretty big odds.
  4. Mephistopheles
    In my opinion the biggest misconception about the value of OBP% is that it means the player is on base. That's essentially what it is, but it is NOT the value in it. Getting on base really has little to do with it's value. It's value is that it really is out percentage. The value in OBP is not making outs. You've only got 27 of them each game so you had better use them well. as for OBP being important, it is the single whole belief of the A's system to 9 OBP monsters...and exactly how many World Series' have they played in with that philosophy??? scoring runs matters, the other team not scoring runs matters more. OBP matters little. Do you know what the Yankees' offense from 1996-2000 was driven by? High on-base percentages. Sure preventing runs is half the game, but preventing OBP% (high K:BB) is just the inverse relationship of OBP% At it's heart a high K:BB is the pitching variant of a high OBP%. They both do the same things - OBP. Lots of Ks = low BAA and that coupled with low walks equals a low OBP. OBP% simply matters. Ask the Cubs.
  5. Mephistopheles
    Eh, I meant Kaz. I just read NY and thought bust for Kaz. I suck.
  6. Mephistopheles
    I didn't realize hitting .260 in Doulbe A for a 23 year old was good enough for a midseason promotion. Decent walk totals, still too many strikeouts for the style of hitter that he is.
  7. Mephistopheles
    Surprisingly Fukudome has a significantly higher SLG% than Matsunaka. Matsunaka is a walk machine. Up until this season I would have said Wada was better than Fukudome, but it looks like his offensive skills might still be hampered from the injury that kept him on the bench for the WBC.
  8. Mephistopheles
    I've always thought Milton Bradley or Mark Kotsay (when he was good) with him myself.
  9. Mephistopheles
    A few things about Kosuke. He's an elite defender with an excellent arm as well. He plays for Chunichi and their home park is the Japanese equivalent to the Astrodome. I do not have his splits but I am certain they'd be significant. Unlike Matsui his transition could be very good as he's a very patient hitter. Obviously he's not going to put up the same numbers in the US as he has in Japan, but he's one of the best players in Japan. Scouts have been all over his pure hitting ability for several years now. He's a guy Beane could love. In fact, his Davenport translations have been VERY solid over the course of his career: Japanese stats - Translated MLB stats 2002: .343/.406/.537 2003: .312/.401/.604 - .282/.365/.484 2004: .277/.367/.569 - .247/.328/.437 2005: .328/.430/.590 - .301/.382/.498 2006: .361/.439/.655 You can throw the 2004 numbers out of the door, he was hurt. In 2005 his Japanese EqA (non translated) was .318 - second best in the league behind Matsunaka. His translated EqA the last three years: 2003: .288 2004: .262 2005: .302 Remember .260 is league average. He's not a huge home run guy, but he's a 2B and walk machine. The only issue I have with signing him if he wanted to come stateside is that he will turn 30 next April.
  10. Mephistopheles
    A bunch of stuff on other Aflac All-Americans in the link.
  11. Mephistopheles
    Not that I know of. The Padres, Brewers and Yankes also sponsored teams in the tournament. Smoak and Wieters Jake Arrieta article: http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/colleges/15197461.htm Robert Stock: http://www.dailynews.com/preps/ci_4166121
  12. Mephistopheles
    Maybe I should use the Google news search more often This is pretty big stuff if Jackson aligns with Scott Boras. I am sure I will dig up some more articles.
  13. Mephistopheles
    Oooh boy 2008 Justin Smoak or Pedro Alvarez. Geez. I found this random article:
  14. Mephistopheles
    Danny Rams seems to have fallen off a bit. Nothing pop outs at this, other than of course Main not being first. http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/mbumgarner06428309rg.jpg Gotta love the showcases with real team unis. Anyways, BA should have their summer college league top 10s and stuff soon.
  15. Mephistopheles
    The Yankees have also toned down Philip Hughes' workload of late. He hasn't gone more than five innings in a start in over a month.
  16. Mephistopheles
  17. Mephistopheles
    People don't rip Ryan Harvey's power. People rip Ryan Harvey's ability to not hit the baseball. Park effects and league considerations be damned - they only affect the ball if you can hit it. Harvey can't.
  18. Mephistopheles
    Going into this season: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/weighted_park_factors_2003_2005/ R H 2B HR BB SO 1.12 1.03 0.79 1.43 0.91 0.96
  19. Mephistopheles
    It's supposed to be premium, but the cutoff that they did is at the very end of the article. Someone made a mistake. Yeah Kershaw seems a bit high. He's definitely up there, but I'd still rank at least Miller ahead of him.
  20. Mephistopheles
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5434 Again, don't know if I can post what he said on Pawly and Veal. 1. Scott Elbert 2. Clayton Kershaw 3. Andrew Miller 4. Donald Veal 5. John Danks 6. Franklin Morales 7. Jacob McGee 8. Troy Patton 9. Gio Gonzalez 10. Chuck Lofgren 11. Mark Pawelek 12. Jaime Garcia 13. Jonathan Sanchez 14. Travis Wood 15. Sean West Honorable Mentions: Dana Eveland Kasey Kiker Scott Lrwis Greg Olsen Alexander Smit I think this sums it up on Pawly: "I just thought he'd be better than this." And on Veal: "Veal is a classic power pitcher--at 6-foot-4 and roughly 225 pounds and he unleashes 92-94 mph fastballs with sink and run and compliments the pitch with a plus changeup that can make hitters look foolish. He's still refining his slurvy breaking ball, and his control is spotty." KG has a chat scheduled for 1:00 CST. If you have anything you want me to ask him, post away.
  21. Mephistopheles
    Wieters is posting a 900 OPS on the cape. Are you kidding me? That's ridiculous. Obviously he has some potential on the mound as a reliever, but the power bat plays more often and is a higher potential. If he were just a pitcher hed be a great talent, but not a guy mentioned to go #1 overall. I know you're not saying you like him better as a pitcher, but his bat blows his arm out of the water. As for Boras reps, wasnt Savery connected with him out of HS? I may mistaken there. I haven't heard any of the names he has been connected with in this draft, yet.
  22. Mephistopheles
    I must say I love what you do here with the updates on all the games. I don't have the time to watch gamecasts all the time, nor the patience so threads like this are really helpful for catching the highlights then looking at the boxscores in a condensed form later on. Thanks a lot!
  23. Mephistopheles
    Heh, the same guy was down on Stock in another thread a few weeks ago. He basically said you look at the gun and it's 94 and you watch him crush the ball - but he doesn't dominate the game.
  24. Mephistopheles
    It's amazingly hard to find any stuff on what Doolittle throws. Still great numbers excluding the flies. Yeah this class is loaded, sadly the Cubs will probably have the #4 pick and lose their second round pick for a FA bat and lose their third round pick for a FA as well. *sighs* I don't see us picking up any picks. In other news, a poster who is a scout or ex scout at the PG site said "Best overall? A toss up for me, but based on overall tools, performance and overall future potential, I'd say Neil Ramirez going into 2007 has to be a favorite with ML Execs that were there last week in San Diego.. A couple other guys there are down on Main as well. thread
  25. Mephistopheles
    Wow, I had no idea Savery had surgery. Next time I see Lehmann I'll ask him what's up. Depending on the severity he could free-fall.
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