Mephistopheles

There were much safer picks than Tyler Colvin. Without even looking at the high school class I would have taken, say Matt Antonelli. His plus athleticism would allow him to move to LF or 2B or stay at 3B. The problem with Antonelli was that he doesn't fit the Cubs' system. He walks too much.

Who?

Welcome to the BABIP/xFIP/xDIPS world. I already backed up my remarks. HR/OFB rates are not consistent. They can be predicted relatively well. If the guy is giving up a lot of flyballs that aren't going for home runs, we can expect him to regress to the average. When analyzing minor league players it is imperative to look at everything in context. Take for instance the HR/FB rates. For Peoria this season the park factor for home runs per outfield flyball has been 1.05. This is in line with past season's HR park factors. In the majors, a flyball is a home run between 11 ad 12 percent of the time. Of course there are different figures for different parks. But if a player's HR/FB is way over their predicted figure, then it's flukishly high. Ditto for under. Over time it's going to regress to the main, just like BABIP. Now, in the minor leagues this is especially vital with leagues such as the California League where the offensive contexts are different. Along with Peoria the next two steps for Taylor will be pitching dominated leagues due to altitude and parks. This will surpress FB's. Now, the definition of a flyball may differentiate here compared to the ones that HBT uses. But here are the league averages for the leagues with Cub full-season affiliates save the PCL. I will put the IL because it doesn't have as many parks in the moutains: 6.9% Midwest League 8.0% Florida State League 8.7% Southern League 9.7% International League Remember, the Major Leagues are going to be between 11 and 12 percent. So it's a pretty linear progression moving up about 1 percent at each stop. 7 for the MWL, 8 for the FSL, 9 for the SL, 10 for the IL, and at least 11 for the NL. This is pretty rational. Obviously as you progress through the minors there is going to be a weeding out process, and your HR hitters are the best hitters so they'll survive the cuts. Also many of the players in the lower rungs are young and power is often the last tool to develop, so they strengthen as they progress through the minors. After the normalizing Scott Taylor's HR/FB rate for his home park we get a figure of 4.6%. This is way below the major league rate of 11 percent. This is something that IS a huge concern. It's already 2.3% below the league rate. There is no way humanly possible he keeps this up. He's not a groundball pitcher and he's not a strikeout pitcher. Look at his K rate, it's currently at 4.45 K/9. That's terrible. There are very very few pitchers in the major leagues that could survive for long with a K rate that low. The ones that do are extreme groundball pitchers - Scott Taylor is not one of those. Also, hitters become progressively harder to strikeout as one rises through the system. The K/9 rate in the Midwest League is 7.46 K/9. Again, that's a considerable figure which will more than likely only get worse. Sure he's got a good WHIP, but his HR rate is helping that. His BABIP is certainly helping that. It's 20 points below the league average. Again this should regress to the mean in time. If you want to factor in the extra hits and HRs his WHIP is over 1.30. Factoring in the HRs his ERA is well over 4.00. Keep in mind that the league ERA is in the mid 3's. He's fairly average there. Only two teams in the entire league have ERA's over 4.00. Scott Taylor has two things going for him, he's young and he's got decent control. I'm not even sure it's his control that's good. His stuff doesn't wow me. If you can't miss Low ****ing A bats you won't survive. Right now Scott Taylor's pitching recipe for success is pretty simple. Throw the ball down the middle. Let the weak strenthed Low A hitter hit it as hard as they can in the air, because well it's not going anywhere. I am pretty sure I backed up my assertions sufficiently. The Jaime Moyer comparison to whoever said it wasn't really good. When Moyer was in Low A his ERA was under 2.00 and his K/9 was over 10.0.

his low HR total is a fluke. About 12 percent of outfield flyballs should go for HRs. Anything less or more is a flukish, right now Taylor is at 4.7%, meaning he should allowed about 3 times as many HR. THe 16 additional HR would add to his WHIP and BB/9 (less outs) and more importantly, using just linear wieghts it would add roughly 20-25 runs allowed, all of sudden his ERA is around 4.90 give or take. It's all a fluke and I am not impressed.

I don't know why you guys love Scott Taylor so much. He hasn't showed any ability to make guys miss whatsoever. He's not really anything to me at this point.

Nice to see Donnie Veal fitting in well to the Cubs' philosophy, averaging over 20 pitches an inning.

Not if they only play one game there. They'll have to travel back to Des Moines for the next game. It's not like Pawtucket to Boston (36 miles).

Guys, we didn't make the dumbest pick of the first round.

I don't know why, Peoria is relatively close I guess. It would be nice to see. However, proximity is the big reason, I would think. Everything's so damn close from DC to Boston.

NVM, it works in IE but not FF. Terrible quality though. Not worth watching.

Shouldnt this Mobile webcam thing allow us to watch? it's not showing anything for me though http://www.mobilebaybears.com/webcam.asp

More like how did Jeff Suppan get so lucky?!?

Ooh, BA also has a writeup on the Area Code games and a top 20/best tools. Won't post those because they don't have too much information http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/highschool/features/262311.html http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/highschool/news/262291.html There wasn't much pitching at the games. Josh Vitters continued to rise up the prospect boards, capturing the number one ranking here. Top pitchers there were Rick Porcello, Blake Beavan, Tanner Robles, Greg Peavey and Jarrod Parker.

Sweet, BA posted the CCL's top 30 prospects! http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/jsmoak06428309.jpg 1. Justin Smoak, 1b, Cotuit (South Carolina) 2. Andrew Brackman, rhp, Orleans (North Carolina State). 3. Matt Wieters, c, Orleans (Georgia Tech) 4. Joshua Fields, rhp, Yarmouth-Dennis (Georgia) 5. Matt Mangini, 3b, Hyannis (Oklahoma State) 6. Brett Cecil, lhp, Orleans (Maryland) 7. Eddie Kunz, rhp, Falmouth (Oregon State) 8. James Simmons, rhp, Cotuit (UC Riverside) 9. Shooter Hunt, rhp, Falmouth (Tulane) 10. Charlie Furbush, lhp, Hyannis (Louisiana State) 11. Josh Donaldson, 3b/c, Harwich (Auburn) 12. Josh Horton, ss, Harwich (North Carolina) 13. Mitch Canham, c, Falmouth (Oregon State) 14. Tony Watson, lhp, Harwich (Nebraska) 15. Matt LaPorta, 1b, Brewster (Florida) 16. Reese Havens, ss, Cotuit (South Carolina) 17. Dan Merklinger, lhp, Harwich (Seton Hall) 18. Terry Doyle, rhp, Yarmouth-Dennis (Boston College) 19. Jeremy Bleich, lhp, Wareham 20. Nolan Gallagher, rhp, Yarmouth-Dennis (Stanford) 21. Conor Graham, rhp, Wareham (Miami, Ohio) 22. Brad Suttle, 3b, Wareham (Texas) 23. Buster Posey, ss/rhp, Yarmouth-Dennis (Florida State) 24. Tyler Henley, of, Yarmouth-Dennis (Rice) 25. Warren McFadden, of, Falmouth (Tulane) 26. Brad Emaus, inf, Yarmouth-Dennis (Tulane) 27. Vance Worley, rhp, Chatham (Long Beach State) 28. Paul Koss, rhp, Chatham (Southern California) 29. Cory Gearrin, rhp, Cotuit (Mercer) 30. Ryan Flaherty, ss, Hyannis (Vanderbilt) Bold Players are 2008 draft prospects I am assuming it's okay to post the order considering I am not posting the reports on the players.

The ICubs are now listing Wilton Chavez as today's starter.

I might have to watch this....I dunno if JWill will get the start, someone has to start for the Cubs on Sunday.

Is Ceda a max-eff guy? Or does he just need to lengthen out? Anyone know this? His next start should be at home, so I guess I can find out myself.

Geovany Soto will almost certainly get called up.

Meh, just about every answer is a generic I don't know comment.

BABIP and BAA can be estimated with great accuracy given a healthy amount of innings. 2.82*IP = Outs via AB.

3:10 CST http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/8/24/14590/5987#commenttop Flood it with Cub Q's!

If Clay Rapada starts off solid in the AFL I don't see how they can leave him off.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/highschool/news/262267.html Damn, Robert Stock's going to USC early. He won't be eligible to be drafted until 2009.

only if the 634 was really his slugging percentage and not his OPS :(