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Mephistopheles

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Everything posted by Mephistopheles

  1. Mephistopheles
    The last three years the park factors for both Ks and BBs have been in the pitcher's advantage for Daytona.
  2. Mephistopheles
    From his latest UTK column: A subscription is needed, so I don't want to post too much. There's also a little blurb about Lee and how this return is better than last year. He's also saying O'Malley might have blown out his elbow.
  3. Mephistopheles
    Do that and use BABIP as well. You can also use a modified version of BABIP including HRs which would be isolating the Ks effect on stats considering the ball itself would affect HRs too.
  4. Mephistopheles
    Jonathan Bachanov. Don't worry that's a name I wrote down so I wont forget it. Someone at the PGN board said he was throwing 91-95 but he's a bit of an unknown b/c of lack of exposure which is a surprise to me - he's from Orlando. Anyways, Brackman stuff: http://www.fayettevillenc.com/article?id=240239 Here's to hoping he goes baseball only
  5. Mephistopheles
    He wasn't. Didn't we have an open spot though?
  6. Mephistopheles
    Somewhere Mike Fontenot is in a corner crying.
  7. Mephistopheles
    Since 1994, and I didn't account for players switching teams the large sample should waterdown that effect. I only used the present era, in case that would distort the data.I used a minimum of 400 ABs, and this left me with 1,216 samples of back-to-back seasons by the same player. Running a correlation I got an r of .411. I should also note that their is a selection bias, all of the player who get 400 ABs in back-to-back seasons are the inherently some of the best hitters in baseball. The average BABIP for all of the players was .311 and the maximum was done by Manny Ramirez the year he heat .351. The minimum was .221 by Orlando Cabrera in 2001. I can quickly run year-to-year correlations for the hitters of other stats if you want me to. Just say what statistic. I did the same thing with pitchers earlier, but only using 1970-1993, I got an r of .218, this should be similar to the 1994-2005 data because the 70-93 era was pretty close. So from this data, a pitcher has about 5% control of their BABIP and a hitter has control of about 17%.
  8. Mephistopheles
    Remember that park factors have a lot to do with BABIP. In a place like Coors Field the BABIP would be higher than a place like Dodger Stadium. Park doesn't just factor home runs. In the minors the same is true - but for leagues. The California and Pioneer leagues are offensive havens, so we would expect their league BABIP's to be higher. If you only look at sea-level leagues, you get this: .309 Majors .314 IL+AA .316 Eas+Sou .316 Caro+FSL .321 SAL+ML .323 NY-P .340 App Source: Baseball Prospectus Of course the higher BABIP's at lower levels is probably due to inferior fielders more than anything. Keep in mind that a hitter has much more control over his BABIP than a pitcher does. I'll run through the data shortly to show the difference.
  9. Mephistopheles
    Would Rich Hill be eligible? Didn't spend the entire season in the minors, but when he was there wasn't any pitcher better.
  10. Mephistopheles
    I got the heads up from Will Carroll's latest UTK column: So I went and dug up the JT article. That article goes on to say that three NL teams were scouting Akinori Iwamura (3B) and Hirotoshi Ishii (LHP). Hiroki Kuroda is mentioned in that he's getting scouted, but it's not sure if he'll cross the pond. He took a lot of flack during the WBC from Nobuhiko Matsunaka that he was using the WBC just to get scouted, he didn't pitch in it. He got hurt iirc. They also sayit is "90%" certain NPB HR leader Seung Yeop Lee is crossing the Pacific. In other random but interesting Japanese baseball news, amateur pitcher Yuki Saito won Koshien, pitching four complete games in four days (!).
  11. Mephistopheles
    I would think it would. IMO a shoulder injury would affect a 12-6 curveball more than a slider and an elbow injury would affect a slider more than the 12-6. At least that's an assumption I've come to.
  12. Mephistopheles
    The difference between a BB and moving runners over depends on who is hitting behind them as putting runners on 1B and 2B rather driving them in on a sac. fly isn't as productive when there's a poor hitter behind them. That said if you want to analyze things in retrospect using Sacs then fine but they would have little to do with their value from this point on which safe to say matters more. When comparing two players it's not what they've done to this point it's what they will do from now on that matters. So valuing sacs and flies really becomes irrelavent. I've never done this study, but given the volatile nature of G/F rates for hitters from year to year there is probably too much "statistical noise" in the data to ever verify any of this, but that's beside the point. Anyways, take this example of meaningless information im so good at finding. Run expectancies, runners second and third no out: 2.052 runs with a sac fly you score one, but the runner stays at second, so runner on 2nd with 1 out, your expectancy is 1 run score + .725 runs = 1.725 runs. had the player walked and not made an out, our run expectancy would have been 2.417, so even a walk is batter than a sac fly with runners on second and third. With just a runner on third? 1.297 - sac fly 1.904 - walk so with no outs, a walk is always better than a sac fly. Ditto for sac bunt. With one out it might be different 1 Out scenario __3 - 1.117 - sac fly __3 - 1.243 - walk _23 - 1.344 - sac fly (1.387) _23 - 1.650 - walk on a sac fly with a runner on second as well as third, I am saying the runner doesn't advance, the number in parantheses says he does... so under no circumstances is a sac fly worth more than a walk with a league average hitter on deck. With Matt Clement on deck, that's different.
  13. Mephistopheles
    The biggest deal I have against sac flies and such is are they really the players doing - or does the situation make it a success. I've never seen a study done that involves G/F rates for hitters, or pitchers for that matter, sorted by situation. Are they just random? If there is a runner on third and one out, does the hitter actual increase his flyball rate and is this a repeatable task? If there is I might be willing to value a sac fly more than any other flyout but until then I must say that they are the exact same when finding a players value.
  14. Mephistopheles
    Well this leads me to an obvious omission from the Cubs top 25, Ill take Grant Johnson over someone like Lansford or Muldowney because if his stuff comes back hes a lot better. of course i said the same thing a year after we drafted Brownlie Doesn't look like we'll have anyone in this years AFL top 25 unless Mark Prior decides to join.... Pence, Patton, F Martinez and Albers are also on the team.
  15. Mephistopheles
    Well the HR part of it probably has a lot to do with it being low A. HR/F goes up as hitters mature (and weak hitters weed out).
  16. Mephistopheles
    Wang isnt a good comparison. He gets groundballs 65% of the time.
  17. Mephistopheles
    Well someone has to send pitching. If they don't send Veal they'll probably send Ryan Harvey as their non AA/AAA player. Oh and Mark Prior too
  18. Mephistopheles
    Gallagher at #6 on BA's prospect hot list http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/hotsheet/262251.html
  19. Mephistopheles
    Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher, Donald Veal, Clay Rapada, Scott Moore, Felix Pie and Bobby Brownlie are my uneducated guesses... Gio Gonzalez is going.
  20. Mephistopheles
    Was he ever throwing 93-95 on average? I thought he's been 90-93 most of the time.
  21. Mephistopheles
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/262248.html Just trading Neifi is a win by itself.
  22. Mephistopheles
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/262244.html Big V. Anyways some club bid 3 mil for him.
  23. Mephistopheles
    I think we'll have several guys in the AZL top 20 BA prospects. Huseby and Ceda should be there somewhere. A couple others could be. And from today's monday morning ten pack http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5441&PHPSESSID=c83bd35ff3ffec1cdc609217ce6eb883 Eh, I know I'm just grasping for air in that.... And I'd add Suarez over Lansford. Id take him over a guy who will probably never play above double a.
  24. Mephistopheles
    Here's to hoping (and only dreaming) that this is Veal's last start in the FSL.
  25. Mephistopheles
    From BCB. From the bonus we knew they were high on Huseby, but this just caps it
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