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Mephistopheles

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Everything posted by Mephistopheles

  1. Mephistopheles
    because he was a .300 hitter in 2004 and 2005 and he had a finger injury in 2006 that made him suck. hes not great, but he's not terrible. in a perfect world it would be trade eyre and izturis for coco and sign lugo forgetting about soriano.
  2. Mephistopheles
    viewtopic.php?t=36204 my thoughts on sorianos career year. not ALL of his IsoD increase was by IBBs
  3. Mephistopheles
    averaged his 2005 MLE EqA, 2006 MLE EqA and 2007 PECOTA projection (last years pecotas) and those figures were {.265,.244,.257} respectively, which average to .255 which was basically what we got from Pierre last season. (Actually it's higher but I didn't bother saying that)
  4. Mephistopheles
    yes because asking pie to post a 700 ops is impossible. And even if its in the 680 range the cubs still come on top with drew for 120 games
  5. Mephistopheles
    well damn he cant handle AA sliders either. Let's put him there. AAA might be hurting his development! Signing Lugo instead of Soriano would have made the Cubs a better team on the field
  6. Mephistopheles
    A long time of extended play in the majors getting his feet wet for 40 games isnt going to kill his development. Now riding the pine here? that's different.
  7. Mephistopheles
    It's not ridiculous. Pierre to Soriano for 526 outs = + 30 runs Pierre to JD Drew for (120/162)*526 outs = + 37 runs Sure, there is a margin for error. Like some of those displaced outs from Drew having a higher OBP going to scrubs like Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Regardless, at the worst Drew for 120 games is the same as Soriano for 162 games. And the assumption of Pie = Pierre
  8. Mephistopheles
    not really because it's an injury, meaning continuous playing time. Not the disjointed crap Murton and Cedeno got in 2005.[/b]
  9. Mephistopheles
    Has anyone gone through the number realized that JD Drew in 120 games does more for the Cubs in CF than Alfonso Soriano in 162 games if the Cubs put Felix Pie in CF the other 42 games?
  10. Mephistopheles
    all of this makes me wonder how much jim really should have given Rafael Furcal.
  11. Mephistopheles
    Considering I was using Lugo's career EqA of .265 when doing the estimations, something he hasn't been as bad as since 2002, not really.
  12. Mephistopheles
    Okay, going from our 06 prodcution to Izturis' career line is an improvement of 9 runs which fails to put the signing Soriano course of action ahead of the Lugo option. We have a winner. You can do the exact same thing from our 2B last season to Ray Durham and get a little more production than Soriano. I think we could sign Durham and Lugo for the price of Soriano and DeRosa. We'd be 30 runs or so better off and we would have the long-term commitment to an aging Soriano.
  13. Mephistopheles
    how long will it take people to realize this isn't an argument saying that lugo is a better offensive player than soriano? i think ive addressed that 10 times in the past hour. once again, that's irrelavent. edit: NVM, i didnt realize that was a quote
  14. Mephistopheles
    That's a sunk cost and has no reason to be mentioned here. It is simply irrelevant. Obviously saving a crapload of money not signing soriano and signing lugo will allow us to sign stop gaps for the time being and we'd be better off.
  15. Mephistopheles
    Fair enough. signing Dave Roberts to patrol CF and give him those 500 outs would give us 13 more runs based on his career .270 EqA. Or we could sign Jose Cruz Jr who hasn't had an EqA under .264 in his career. Or we could sign Kenny Lofton who hasn't had an EqA under .270 since 1991. All of which would be pretty cheap.. and on the alternative, PECOTA had Pie producing a .256 EqA this season. So really we could have Pie there and not miss a beat. Either way Lugo + Anyone is better than Soriano + Our current SS.
  16. Mephistopheles
    Even if he DOES repeat his numbers, signing Lugo is still a better alternative on the field, without even talking about monetary differences.
  17. Mephistopheles
    it still doesnt matter because signing lugo gives us an additional OBP boost (and power), and thats not having Ronny Cedeno and/or Cesar Izturis combining for 700 plate appearances.
  18. Mephistopheles
    and what exactly does he do? Get out a lot making sure they don't come up to bat? because julio lugos career OBP is higher than sorianos
  19. Mephistopheles
    thats not the argument. the argument is that the difference between ronny cedeno/cesar izturis and Julio Lugo is greater than the difference between Soriano and Juan Pierre.
  20. Mephistopheles
    Were not at $150m. We're more close to about $100mil so far. Where do you get $150m? Man, some of you guys are making things up just to be negative. I don't get it? 136 (Soriano) + 13 (DeRosa) = 149. I wasn't looking at a per year. I could do that too. Let's see, let's say Lugo gets 10 a year. So we achieved the same effect by spending about half of what we did on Soriano and DeRosa. :(
  21. Mephistopheles
    Hendry still is looking at him in CF, which means Jones is gone for Soriano. We still have dead outs at SS, meaning we'd still probably be better off addressing that first.
  22. Mephistopheles
    Except Soriano would be replacing Juan Pierre and Lugo would be replacing Cesar Izturis and Ronny Cedeno.
  23. Mephistopheles
    If he plays to his career level, yes. If he plays to his 2006 level, he's worth about 45 runs more. Either way Lugo would make us better cheaper.
  24. Mephistopheles
    if you think lugo would cost 136 million you're crazy. i cant prove he wont but well he wont.
  25. Mephistopheles
    Probably is the key word there. You, nor I know what could have been done and how much money could have/have not been spent. It isn't our money, if the Trib wants to spend it then let them. Actually I am certain it could have been done. The Cubs got an EqA of roughly .208 from their SSs last season in 486 outs. Julio Lugo's career EqA is .265. The difference between those two over 486 outs is roughly 41 runs. The actual should be higher because for the most part Lugo's been a better hitter the last couple of seasons. The Cubs got an EqA of roughly .250 from their CFers last season in 526 outs. Alfonso Soriano's career EqA is .287. The difference between those two over 526 outs is roughly 30 runs. Julio Lugo could be had for what, 32 million max? Soriano was had for what, 100 million more. You can say shove EqA in your ass all you want. You can do this with any stat and find a similar outcome.
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