Mephistopheles

He was already heading into the toilet in June though. The BABIP says that he was just unlucky, but I think a far more telling line is the BB and LD%. He was swinging at a lot of balls outside of the zone (low and away sliders, especially). Um. No on the latter half. There's no real difference between a 17.8% LD and a 20.1% LD over the course of 164 BIPs. In fact a true .201 LD hitter has greater than a 1 in 4 chance of having an LD below .178 for 164 BIPs The difference is four line drives.

Is that with the platoon? If he's platooned I think that's a pretty good projection. If he's not I think he's more like .270/.350/.400. It's not just the 2-seamer that gets Fukudome, it's the low and away slider outside of the zone. So you're predicting no improvement? That's not right, sorry. Anyways, Fukudome had no problems with sliders of any sort last season. His BABIP on sliders was well over .400 and he only whiffed on 27% of sliders he saw. Those are both well above average rates. For comparison, Albert Pujols' BABIP on sliders was 80 points lower and Chipper Jones whiffed as often. Fukudome's not any worse than anyone else at hitting sliders. That simply wasn't the problem with him last year no matter what your selective memory saw. I was in Tim's Lou-House.

You still didn't read it. I basically said why it takes awhile to adjust. I said given his success in Japan we shouldn't EXPECT him to be the first player to fail in their translations and that we should EXPECT rapid improvement pretty quickly and I EXPECT him to hit .290/.390/.440 or something like that. The expected level of something is not a foregone conclusion, it's the damn middle. I always say what to expect, not what will happen. Half the time something worse than what you expect will happen, half the time something better than what you expect will happen.

I did tell you about this on April 4th, 2008. And then I brought it up again on May 26th, 2008.

It's also a Juan Cruz hole.

You didn't read it

If this were true (which it's not) explain this: MLB Babip - NPB Babip .322 - .343 Kaz Matsui .308 - .320 Hideki Matsui .273 - .297 Kenji Johjima .353 - .366 Ichiro Suzuki .306 - .316 Tadahito Iguchi .344 - .352 Akinori Iwamura .311 - .315 So Taguchi .266 - .278 Tsuyoshi Shinjo .304 - .354 Kosuke Fukudome Being the know-it-all about Japanese Baseball that you are, you tell me which of the nine is the outlier. Trust me when I say that I have been following japanese baseball more than you ever will or ever care to. I can explain this. Everything that has transpired has been expected. Up until the early part of this decade and late last decade baseball in Japan was stuck in the late 70s to mid 80s style of play in the US for a couple of the reasons. First of all, the cookie cutter ballpark in Japan lasted longer there than it did here. I'm sure you don't know this, but let's look at this from the point of American Baseball in the 1980s. In the 1980s pitchers didn't rely on sinkers and pitches that induced groundballs nearly as much as they do today. Home runs weren't as prevalent so flyballs were at a relative advantage compared to what they were today. Also throw in the fact that teams loved speed and had tons of speedy hitters, but throw in the fact that most parks had astroturf. Astroturf plus fast black athletes plus groundballs doesn't equal good things for a pitcher. Pitchers in the early 80s and late 70s had to develop pitches that didn't induce groundballs that easily. That meant fastballs and changing speeds with forks, splits and changes to go with the occasional over the top curve and slider. Sinking fastballs and two seams were used primarily against the power hitters who didn't run well, but that's about a fourth of the hitters. Fast-forward twenty years and everyone can hit home runs and speed isn't as prevalent. That means pitchers who rely on groundballs are now at an relative advantage thanks to no astroturf and not giving up home runs. This explains the sudden explosion to sinking fastballs and two seams we've seen over the last twenty years. Obviously, they existed prior to this, but not nearly to the extent they do now where there are pitchers who only throw that pitch (see Brandon Webb). Brandon Webb would not be nearly as good in the 1980s as he is today. This also explains the complete evaporation of the forkball in the US since the forkball usually ends up in the air or missed. Now let's look at Japanese baseball in the last ten years. Astroturf is still lingering around a bit, and most of the league had it at some point in the last ten or so years. There's not nearly the amount of power hitters there and the game is built around speed. Sound familiar? The staple of the Japanese reliever is the forkball and everyone in Japan throws one. Everyone from Mr Forkball Sasaki to the unparalleled reliever in professional baseball, Kyuji Fujikawa. Sound familiar? Have you seen a japanese pitcher rely on a sinking fastball or sinker? No, because no one throws it there. Sound familiar? The pitchers there are different than the ones here. That's the biggest adjustment factor coming from Japan to the US. Pitchers there don't try to get groundballs and the two seam fastball and sinkers simply don't exist. They're starting to prop up with a few pitchers here and there, but its in its infancy stage. It's the same reason why pitchers like Sasaki come here and do well immediately, our hitters aren't used to seeing pitchers with that kind of repertoire. It goes both ways. So throw Kosuke Fukudome coming here. He comes here does well early, then gets a steady diet of two-seamers and sinkers on the outer half the second half of the season and grounds out to second every time. That's what killed his BABIP, but then again it's going to take time for him to learn how to hit that pitch and recognize the fact that a righty can tail a pitch at his FB velo on the outer third. Most of the other Japanese hitters had an adjustment period learning to hit that pitch. It took Kaz Matsui two or three years to learn to hit it. His rookie year Hideki Matsui led the league in GB% rolling over the pitch. The thing is, EVERY JAPANESE HITTER, eventually learned to hit the pitch and hit their translated levels. There's not ONE anamoly that did not. Not one. Why should we believe Kosuke is the first? Afterall he was the best japanese hitter in his time over there. The best. He's not a stupid hitter who can't make adjustments. If he had a big [expletive] in his swing on the outer half Japanese pitchers would have found it out. They're not stupid. It's not that easy to get them out. It's going to take time for him to learn to hit that pitch. It's not going to be an overnight thing. All of the guys hit their translated levels by their second year. Kosuke shouldn't be any different. As long as Lou doesn't jerk him around like a dumbass (which Lou probably will being the fickle bitch that he is), Kosuke should be fine. The other guys lost about .010 off their BABIP coming stateside, on average, with the two converging more closely as AB goes up. That puts him around a .340-.345 BABIP. If he doesn't hit for more power (which he will once he learns the intricacies of the sinker), a .330 BABIP alone will put him somewhere around .280/.380/.410. If he gets around .340 he'll be around .290/.390/.430, but as I've said all the players before him eventually got to their translated level, which for him, is a .300+ EqA or around .300/.400/.470 or so. Personally, I'm expecting something around .290/.390/.440. Though, I wouldn't be shocked if he hit 40 doubles this season and 50 doubles one year. Kosuke Fukudome will be fine. Of course, I'm sure that my reasoning is stupid and pointless and your idea that it must because Japanese pitchers suck so he must suck no matter what and that's the explanation even though you know nothing about Japanese baseball and can't name five players in NPB right now. What a minute do you know what NPB is? Please... I may be a dick, but be careful with arguing with me. I just might decide to post my reasoning and defend myself.

lets be fair, patience is an attribute that gathright does possess.

You do that. He can hit. Unless you of course think he can only BABIP .250 or so after years of BABIP-ing over .350 in Japan. Because he BABIP's .340 or so he's going to have an OBP pretty damn close to .400.

He can jump cars. He can be like Tanaka in ML2 (or 3 or 4? whichever one it was) and jump the wall and rob home runs that would be in the basket. That's awesome and worth losing a few games here and there imo.

Well if Aramis Ramirez goes down for any considerable length of time (which is possible, he's no Ripken) who else do we have in the organization that could back up even Aaron Miles? Whoever it is it's going to be ugly. and whoever it is will universally be hated by NSBB because they're not Mark DeRosa. Josh Vitters had better get his ass in gear, eh...

Who cares? Who cares if Soriano's batting leadoff or not. He's one of the better hitters on the team, so putting him near the front of the lineup isn't the worst idea. Derrek Lee is one of the better hitters on the team so putting him near the front of the lineup isn't the worst idea. Putting Aaron Miles at the top of the lineup is just dumb. Personally, I'd go 1. Kosuke Fukudome, CF 2. Milton Bradley, RF 3. Derrek Lee, 1B 4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B 5. Alfonso Soriano, LF 6. Geovany Soto, C 7. Mike Fontenot, 2B 8. Ryan Theriot, SS 9. Pitcher

Aaron Miles got a whopping 61 innings at third last season. Man our bench is going to suck. Injuries stay away for a year, or all happen at once for a two week stretch in May.

This is Lou Piniella we're talking about. He's going to flip flop at least ten times before Opening Day.

Is it illegal to "kidnap" Aaron Miles, and hide him at a luxury hotel in some place cool like Sweden or Amsterdam where he gets whatever he wants?

the easiest way to avoid this problem is give no deadline for players to accept arbitration.

that really isn't why he hasn't been signed. anyways throw on top of it that hes gotten screwed his entire career and should have been given a full-time starting gig years ago.

dont you?

Maybe it's then end of him being a bad apple. Hopefully he's maturing.

a crappy outfielder

now there's a quality post. i agree with those who say it's marshall's job to lose. he's done everything asked of him the last couple years, and deserves a legitimate shot at the rotation. i think shark needs more seasoning prior to being an mlb starter. Thank you. Your honesty and quality of posting is an inspiration for us all. I don't trust him to ever stay healthy outside of a bullpen role. Probably not, but given that he is healthy now one thing you don't do is completely eliminate him from the slot before spring training. If he's healthy there's no question he is the best option and there's probably no question he will outperform the others this spring.

angel

Of course by "infection" the Cubs mean "shoulder discomfort" http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/1430686,CST-SPT-cubnt14.article

i was speaking in general about pitchers, not just zambranos velocity. this wont happen. there are pitch limits.

1. I didn't call anyone dumb. 2. It's common sense. From a mental stand point sure, whatever. From an actual stress on the arm point of view there's little, if any, difference. You're throwing the same pitches. How much "effort" you put into each pitch doesn't matter. Injuries, structurally, are caused by two things. For the elbow, it's the point where your arm and elbow is extended 180 degrees as the ball is released. The amount of torque on the elbow is what causes injuries, as well as the rotational angle that your forearm is in (ie slider or fastball). Throwing a ball 92 MPH instead of 90 MPH because you're in the WBC isn't going to add a significant amount of torque. 90% of injuries involving the elbow are injuries to your ligaments. Ligament injuries aren't freak accidents. They don't just happen. They happen as the stress of the pitchers weaken the ligaments over time. The simple fact is: ligament injuries from pitching are ticking time bombs. If it's going to happen, it's going to happen. Whether you're pitching in the WBC or not won't impact that. Shoulder injuries are a little different, but the principles remain the same. The labrum is generally NOT caused by the actual physical fact of motioning your arm forward. It's generally caused by pinching when you pull your arm back, mentally putting anything extra into throwing faster isn't going to cause your labrum to sustain any more damage. Rotator cuff injuries aren't generally caused by the physical fact of motioning your arm forward, but the deceleration of the rotation of upper arm after the ball is released. Again, throwing the ball 92 MPH instead of 90 MPH isn't going to make much a difference, structurally speaking on the rotator cuff muscles and tendons. Let's also note that, when throwing a baseball, the arm itself does not have a rotational velocity near the the speed of the ball after release, meaning each difference of 1 or 2 MPH on actual speed is going to much much smaller with respect to the shoulder. So really, as far as injuries are concerned, pitching in the WBC is the same as pitching the spring training, even if mentally you try harder.