Mephistopheles

I KNOW THIRTEEN MORE PEOPLE LIKE ME YOU VOTED FOR MEPH LAST TIME. Da Mephandom needs to show up.

B-R isn't always correct. :shock: i guess the next question is why so many people think it's the Rule V. Was it called this at one point? who can I blame? I want answers! Because 5 reminded people of Albert Pujols too much.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Talk:Rule_V_Draft

B-R isn't always correct.

The most impressive is the 56 in a row streak. Assume the average hitter gets a hit 25% of the time (close enough). Then assume the average hitter is given five plate appearances a game. Both of these numbers error on the side of making the probabilities higher than the actual. Then the probability of getting at least one hit in a game is 76.25%. Then the odds of getting a hit in at least 56 games in a row are 1 in 3,875,606

5.

lol im getting beat by a nobody

Halfway through the regular season. 1. Meph 74-32-4 .691 - 9-1-0 12 90 2. St. Lunatics 61-39-10 .600 10 7-3-0 11 7 3. Minneaps Ballers 61-45-4 .573 13 3-6-1 7 8 4. BalsaWoodKeyBoard 56-45-9 .550 15.5 6-3-1 13 19 5. Hail Cesar 54-46-10 .536 17 5-4-1 2 12 6. ThreeAces 51-51-8 .500 21 8-2-0 5 8 7. Dobson's Supermarket 53-53-4 .500 21 1-9-0 4 12 8. haltz 50-52-8 .491 22 3-7-0 8 10 9. lazy bums 48-52-10 .482 23 4-5-1 3 9 10. Kleptomaniacs 46-56-8 .455 26 5-4-1 6 12 11. TheoSqua 44-56-10 .445 27 4-5-1 9 6 12. Adam Dunn's Shoes 44-58-8 .436 28 4-5-1 14 6 13. Prior Warning 36-60-14 .391 33 2-8-0 1 4 14. the mauer power hour 35-68-7 .350 37.5 5-4-1 10 14

Tossing out the Brewers, the Cubs have 6 or 7 remaining and that could easily be less when the Rockies fall below .500

the brewers havent been all that the last five weeks or so

I'd like to think that a package for Ken Griffey Jr could be a similar package for Adam Dunn. Give me Dunn

I can't find any reports on PGN yet. It's over today and is usually one of the biggest and most-attended showcase events of the summer.

Chavy's apparently gotten back his home run stroke. Six this month.

ummmmm youre showing that you dont know what youre talking about. when people say BABIP is essentially random, theyre talking about pitchers, not hitters. people who look at it attribute to luck not because some players perform better in situations than others, but because that very very few players do it consistently and the ones who do it consistently are unlucky just because probabilities have outliers. Its not our fault that just because the chance someone is consistently poor in it is say .001 percent. That .001 percent still happens somewhere. When you look at the data and try to find out if there are more than that .001 percent, you're not going to find much -- sorry. Now, there may be something to Soriano hitting less with RISP because he's a flyball hitter and outfielders are more willing to let 2Bs drop without runners on. That has nothing to do with Soriano's clutch. The thing that speaks volumes is that hes actually a better hitter when the game is tied than when his team is ahead.

i find it funny that most psychologists agree with the belief that clutch doesn't really exist. They've done tons of research on it. Not all of the research is done with baseball, but it doesn't have to be. The most notable one is on free throws.

As other users have stated, there are outliers due to chance. The fact that Soriano has performed less with runners on doesn't mean it's because he's bad at it. You freely argued that the Rangers "wasted years" trying to make him hit in the middle of the order and "all they got was an .807 OPS." You sincerely left out two critical pieces of information. First, his career OPS is only .838 and you're talking about a sample size where two home runs would raise his OPS to his career level. Not exactly a very significant argument if I said so myself. Secondly, you're also leaving out that they did try to hit him 5th, which is what a lot of the users are advocating here, and he had an .838 OPS from that spot the year they tried to move him there. That figure is familiar... As other users have said, why does he step down with runners on base? Just because it's inconsistent? Maybe when there are runners on base pitchers are less likely to give hitters with power pitches to hit and thus lead to a decrease in HRs? With no one on pitchers don't want to walk the first hitter of an inning or anything so they are more willing to throw a fastball down the middle because solo home runs don't win too many games. The whole problem with saying he isn't clutch is that you're ONLY using a few situations as clutch situations. For a player to "step it down" he has to mentally know it's a clutch situation. Why, then, does Soriano hit better in tie games than he does in games where the margin is four runs? If it's a skill or ability then it also has to be something consistently present, but in quite of a few seasons in his career he's been fine in those situations. DID HE MAGICALLY STOP DOING IT THEN? Probably not. Its just an occurrence. Even if it were true, then the last two seasons when hes had an ops of 873 with risp he must have improved so its a non-factor, right? If Wrigley Field was full and everyone was asked to flip a coin for as long as it kept landing on tails, statistically speaking, there should be at least one person there who flips it FIFTEEN times in a row. There are outliers, probability says there will be outliers, but when you at the data probabilistically you still won't find any shred of truth in the argument that there are clutch players. Soriano hasn't been unlucky as a hitter, he's just hasn't hit well with runners on because he hasn't hit well with runners on. It doesn't mean it's because he's unclutch. It just means hit PAs have been sliced up that way. And "surprisingly consistent" isn't exactly true. 3 of the 6 full seasons he's been in the bigs his OPS with runners on base have been right at or above his career OPS. That's half. Hmm. But it did change in 2006, and in 2002, and in 2004. Oh look! He's always hit very well in even numbered years with runners on. He's always sucked in the situation in odd numbered years. SO IT MUST MEAN HE ONLY CHOKES IN ODD YEARS! Lol. Yeah the argument is meaningless. Soriano is fine.

I didn't admit that. You tried to prove it. No one admitted that you succeeded, just pointing out a hole in your analysis. I haven't really commented on the rest of your posts, just two sentences. I'll go back and re-read them and organize my thoughts.

I am playing nice. I haven't insulted him or anything like that! I'm sure he's a bright guy and all that. He's just wrong.

You're not getting it. Improve also says something totally wrong: They improve in these situations. Meaning they play better because of ______. Your argument for clutch has basically been an argument that certain guys aren't clutch. There's a difference in the two arguments and it's your critical mistake. You can't prove it that way. Let's look at it in more abstract terms. We're saying A can't be B. B is the opposite of C. you then say: A can be C thus then A can be B. It's illogical.

Then what you believe is incorrect. Let's look at your quote more closely. There is a new bolded word.

No, I should congratulate you. You're trying to awake a sleeping giant (me). I know what I'm talking about. Don't mistake me for an ESPN telecaster. Everyone here knows that you know what you are talking about. No need to get in the face of a new poster for not respecting your might. Can we talk about Soriano, here? Alright, then, but no punching below the belt. :lol: none needed. he conceded before the argument.

theriot sucks

No, I should congratulate you. You're trying to awake a sleeping giant (me). I know what I'm talking about. Don't mistake me for an ESPN telecaster. Everyone here knows that you know what you are talking about. No need to get in the face of a new poster for not respecting your might. Can we talk about Soriano, here?

No, I should congratulate you. You're trying to awake a sleeping giant (me). I know what I'm talking about. Don't mistake me for an ESPN telecaster.

i don't need to read it lol. of course some players do -- due to chance. you have no argument.