Mephistopheles
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Everything posted by Mephistopheles
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yeah whatever. keep kidding yourselves. maybe if you pray for something god will help you...but probably not.
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i love how people are proven wrong and still say things like "ill still take sosa."
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yeah i like EqA a lot, but the problem is that a lot of people don't understand it. Not hard at all EqA = (((((((((2 * ((TB + H + 1.5 * (BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) / (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB)) / ((Lg_TB + Lg_H + 1.5 * (Lg_BB + Lg_HBP + Lg_SB) + Lg_SH + Lg_SF) / (Lg_AB + Lg_BB + Lg_HBP + Lg_SH + Lg_SF + Lg_CS + Lg_SB))) - 1) * PA * (Lg_R / Lg_PA))^1.8) / ((((((2 * ((TB + H + 1.5 * (BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) / (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB)) / ((Lg_TB + Lg_H + 1.5 * (Lg_BB + Lg_HBP + Lg_SB) + Lg_SH + Lg_SF) / (Lg_AB + Lg_BB + Lg_HBP + Lg_SH + Lg_SF + Lg_CS + Lg_SB))) - 1) * PA * (Lg_R / Lg_PA))^1.8) + (PA * Lg_R / Lg_PA * ParkRF)^1.5)))) / (1 - ((((((2 * ((TB + H + 1.5 * (BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) / (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB)) / ((Lg_TB + Lg_H + 1.5 * (Lg_BB + Lg_HBP + Lg_SB) + Lg_SH + Lg_SF) / (Lg_AB + Lg_BB + Lg_HBP + Lg_SH + Lg_SF + Lg_CS + Lg_SB))) - 1) * PA * (Lg_R / Lg_PA))^1.8) / ((((((2 * ((TB + H + 1.5 * (BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) / (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB)) / ((Lg_TB + Lg_H + 1.5 * (Lg_BB + Lg_HBP + Lg_SB) + Lg_SH + Lg_SF) / (Lg_AB + Lg_BB + Lg_HBP + Lg_SH + Lg_SF + Lg_CS + Lg_SB))) - 1) * PA * (Lg_R / Lg_PA))^1.8) + (PA * Lg_R / Lg_PA * ParkRF)^1.5)))))^.2) * .26
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1.8*OPB + SLG is a lot more accurate than OBP+SLG, so obviously an OBP driven one is better. There really isn't room for discussion. Anyone who knows anything that uses OPS as a starting point will agree with this assessment. Like I said, carry on. There's no way to argue for SLG. Whilst I agree with your conclusion, you support it not at all. Just because I didnt post any numbers doesnt mean I didnt support it. I simply said when you weight OBP more in OPS the correlation goes up, saying that OBP driven OPS means more. That's the whole point. I did back up my claim with hard cold facts.
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did you just suggest moving hill to the pen? thats just dumb. flat out [expletive]. -
.360/.424/.543 Cedeno in AAA .361/.403/.565 Pie in AAA Cedeno was playing better than Pie in AAA and just got called up. Calling Pie up would make sense, but not for Cedeno. They're better off dumping Fontenot or Pagan if that happened. Those two are worthless.
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I'd take 98 Sosa over 98 Olerud You'd also be wrong. Olerud had a .447 OBP that year. .447!
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Marshall's scratched cornea
Mephistopheles replied to The Voice of Reason's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Unfortunately the most likely explanation for his poor performance today was that he's Sean Marshall. -
I disagree. I wouldnt be shocked if he has a griffey/arod type year 20 season. He's going to be elite and he's going to be elite quickly.
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Joe Carter disagrees. Beyond the onjectionable use of the exception to the rule to prove a point, Joe Carter didn't have elite slg, but yes I agree that obp is more important. I'm just saying they aren't mutually exclusive. Yeah, that's not what I mean when I'm talking about elite slugging percentages the problem is that who cares? We're not asking if a high OBP guy is more valuable than a high SLG guy. We're basically saying if two players have an identical OPS, who do you take, the guy with the higher OBP or SLG. In this context we DO KNOW that a point higher on SLG means a point lower on OBP.
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sammy sosa guys. for instance, sosa's 98: .308/.377/.647 His .647 SLG was good for 3rd in the majors and his OBP was good for 43rd in baseball. This caused his EqA to be 12th in the majors...way behind a guy who slugged 100 points less than him (Olerud).
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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/08/02/upton.callup.ap/ Oh snap son, adjust those fantasy rosters accordingly.
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1.8*OPB + SLG is a lot more accurate than OBP+SLG, so obviously an OBP driven one is better. There really isn't room for discussion. Anyone who knows anything that uses OPS as a starting point will agree with this assessment. Like I said, carry on. There's no way to argue for SLG.
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if youre going to use the second time through the lineup argument its not going to work I Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS Pk BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split +-+------------+---+----+----+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+ Innings 1-3 20 249 223 23 53 6 0 10 18 1 55 4 2 2 2 4 10 2 3 .238 .304 .399 .703 .269 86 103 Innings 1-3 Innings 4-6 18 215 193 26 43 8 0 10 18 1 47 2 2 0 3 5 6 1 1 .223 .296 .420 .716 .243 83 105 Innings 4-6
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or you can just look at all the pitchers in baseball and look at their BABIP....which is easy. its the best and a pretty damn accurate way to measure defense.
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So he/she is all over the place. first, it was runs scored. Then it was don't like. Then it was errors. So again, thanks for the irrelevent commentary. the hell is your problem? anyways read the quotes. hes saying fielders dont play on their toes and it allows more balls to get through. He's been pretty consistent on that part. It's something you can disprove as I've already stated. You, however, cannot disprove it using the correlation that you intended on running.
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Joe Morgan everybody. I'll tell you what. Pick any four pitchers who pitched in the majors for 5 or more years. I look up the game logs for the runs/game and errors/game and compare them to the data for the days when the pitcher didn't pitch. I'll run some simple descriptive and inferential statistics and see if there is a corelation between runs/scored and errors/game. If I find that there are no data that support your conclusion you ban yourself from every posting on here. If there is a corelation I will seek your forgivness and never darken the door of NSBB again. Deal? Fortunately for him, even if there is correlation he's not wrong. What you would be doing wouldn't even be relevant. It wouldn't prove anything .... just that when there are more errors there are more runs scored. He didn't say anything against that. No. He said that a pitcher who pitches slow and throws a lot of ball (i.e., nibbler) a) has fewer runs scored per game for him and b) has more errors (on his team) when he pitches compared to other pitchers on his team. But thanks for irrelevent commentary. no, he said that defensive players do "not make as many great plays" when theyre playing behind soft-tossers. errors shouldnt be discussed.
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Joe Morgan everybody. I'll tell you what. Pick any four pitchers who pitched in the majors for 5 or more years. I look up the game logs for the runs/game and errors/game and compare them to the data for the days when the pitcher didn't pitch. I'll run some simple descriptive and inferential statistics and see if there is a corelation between runs/scored and errors/game. If I find that there are no data that support your conclusion you ban yourself from every posting on here. If there is a corelation I will seek your forgivness and never darken the door of NSBB again. Deal? Fortunately for him, even if there is correlation he's not wrong. What you would be doing wouldn't even be relevant. It wouldn't prove anything .... just that when there are more errors there are more runs scored. He didn't say anything against that.
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What was your username before you changed it? RichHillIsABeast
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Prove it. Haha, nothing in that statement needs to be proved. Defenders flat out despise slow pitchers and tend to not make as many great plays behind them. If this is "definitely" true it will be rather easily proved. Is that the only response you can ever come up with, "prove it"? How about this...how about you prove to me that it isn't true, then we can talk. I don't need statistics to prove to me what I know to be an effect on pitcher's after playing for 20 years as an amateur and professional. Actually soft-tossing lefties DO show a higher ability of control (in a good way) of their BABIP. In fact I used a wierd method to show that only two pitchers have meaningful control over their BABIP. They were Barry Zito and Jamie Moyer. This data suggests that notion is absurd.
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Huh, I thought he started pitching in 2000 for Hanshin. Damn. http://japanesebaseball.com/forum/thread.jsp?forum=46&thread=35724 six years. Cool...I can wait three more years. actually, i expect that rule to be gone within a year of the next wbc. something has to be done. fujikawa or fukudome might just be the guys to test it. if not, nishioka might.
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its all good guys. i am going to watch 300 when the game starts. i suggest you all do the same.
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Huh, I thought he started pitching in 2000 for Hanshin. Damn. http://japanesebaseball.com/forum/thread.jsp?forum=46&thread=35724 six years.
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Are there any good sites that you could provide that cover Japanese baseball? http://www.japanball.com http://www.japanesebaseball.com http://www.japanbaseballdaily.com http://www.baseballguru.com I used to use a site off of geocities to figure out EqA and other stats in Japan, but that sites gone so I am going to have to use something else at the end of the year. I have a pretty good working knowledge of Japanese and follow most of it from yahoo's japanese site. sometimes other japanese sites. Fujikawa is unreal 2005 1.36 ERA, 92.2 IP, 139:20 K:BB, 57 H 2006 0.68 ERA, 79.1 IP, 122:22 K:BB, 46 H 2007 0.70 ERA, 50.1 IP, 73:12 K:BB, 26 H Huh, I thought he started pitching in 2000 for Hanshin. Damn. He did, but I'm not sure how the amount of games played works in Japan. All I know is that it's a lot more strict here -- to the point where some guys think about coming over midseason, Michihiro Ogasawara comes to mind there, although he never really considered it.
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not any time soon. i believe its four more years after this until nine in his career. he is, however, the best closer on the planet you know.
