Jon

Bulls down 13-1 early...

Another strong one that nilodnayr posted in another forum: "Well we'd like to get guys who can get on base, but our trouble was knocking guys in. We finished 4th or 5th in the league in hitting so we did manage to get guys on base. You can get all the guys on base that you want, but you have to knock them in." - Jim Hendry

They posted those projections in the post for each signing. Soriano (ouch): 2007 ZiPS Projection - Alfonso Soriano ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Projection 642 100 170 38 2 36 98 50 150 27 .265 .327 .498 2008 602 92 161 39 2 31 77 44 144 24 .267 .325 .493 2009 578 83 151 39 2 26 67 41 136 21 .261 .321 .471 2010 550 75 141 39 2 21 59 38 126 17 .256 .314 .449 2011 502 66 127 36 2 18 50 35 114 12 .253 .312 .440 2012 423 53 105 30 1 13 38 30 96 8 .248 .312 .416 2013 370 45 92 26 1 10 30 26 82 6 .249 .315 .405 2014 384 49 95 27 1 11 33 29 88 6 .247 .317 .409 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Opt. (15%) 667 124 194 46 4 46 114 62 142 40 .291 .361 .579 Pes. (15%) 505 69 122 26 1 25 56 34 130 17 .242 .295 .446 DeRosa (ouch): 2007 ZiPS Projection - Mark DeRosa ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Projection 404 54 107 30 1 8 49 32 85 2 .265 .324 .403 2008 363 50 94 25 1 8 43 30 71 2 .259 .324 .399 2009 355 48 93 26 1 7 42 29 72 2 .262 .326 .400 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Opt. (15%) 458 72 132 37 2 12 64 43 85 3 .288 .357 .456 Pess. (15% 264 29 62 16 0 3 25 17 65 0 .235 .286 .330

it has alot to do with it. what's it matter? let's go position by position. 1B - assuming health of Lee, vast improvement 2B - assuming DeRosa doesn't fall completely on his face, vast improvement for the first five months of the season, big fall off for September. SS - scratch. actually probably a modest improvement 3B - assuming lack of horrendously bad luck, an improvement LF - assuming basic career progression and Murton being allowed to play, an improvement CF - a vast improvment RF- probably some regression, unless a platoon is brought in, in which case probably a scratch (keep in mind three year splits includes Jones' two worst years). C - probably a scratch. Barrett won't be as good but will play more games. pinch hitting - Cubs were 13 of 16 NL teams in OPS. no more Neifi and Freddie getting most of the PH at bats I've already stated my views on Jones and Soriano, but here are the rest: Lee - It's important to remember that we still don't know if he can repeat his one amazing year. He only has one year where he finished with an OPS over .890. I'll certainly be satisfied if we can get a .950 OPS out of him, but it's hard to say just how well he's going to do. Will he be very good or great? DeRosa - As I said before, he's never put up those kinds of numbers and he'll be 32 years old. Frankly, I'd be more surprised at a repeat year than significant regression. Especially in terms of power, although obviously his OBP is going to be more important in the two spot. And Todd put up a .352 OBP for the Cubs last year. Izturis - I don't even want to think about him. Bat him behind the pitcher. Ramirez - I don't really see much of an improvement. As cheapseats said, I think something along the lines of last year would be good enough for him. I'm not sure we're going to see 2004 Aramis again, but he should stay at or above .900 for a while. Murton - It'll be interesting to see what he does, but I do think he'll improve. With that said, it'll also be interesting to see what Hendry does the rest of the offseason and how much PT he'll really get. Barrett - I don't think he'll be able to do as well, but he could be close.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield. A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year. this sort of thinking drives me nuts. assume regression by everyone to come to the conclusion that everything will be a complete disaster. I understand the need to view things from a worst case scenerio point of view, but come on. the return of Lee, swap of Soriano for Pierre, more Barrett less Blanco, second will be vastly improved with the exception of the September production the Cubs got from Theriot, progression by Murton that was amply demonstrated in the second half, and you have to assume that Aram will not have the horrendous bad luck he had in April and May 06. this offense will be vastly improved over 2006. Regression for Jones and Soriano doesn't seem to be too unlikely. Jacque Jones (32): 2003 - .304 .333 .464 .797 2004 - .254 .315 .427 .742 2005 - .249 .319 .438 .757 2006 - .285 .334 .499 .833 Alfonso Soriano (31) 2003 - .290 .338 .525 .863 2004 - .280 .324 .484 .808 2005 - .268 .309 .512 .821 2006 - .277 .351 .560 .911 They both had either a career year or close to a career year on the wrong side of 30. I don't think it's safe to assume that they can easily repeat those seasons. Same thing with DeRosa (32). see the calculation I ran for the Cubs projected lineup which used three year splits, aka assumes regression. How much of that is having Lee healthy and ditching Pierre, though? In terms of what Hendry has done, the improvements are minimal. In terms of production, I still don't think we'll see that great of a difference, especially with the batting order we're going to see.

Desmond Clark (foot) was removed from the injury report on Thursday. Thomas Jones (groin) is still listed as probable, but Wesley (knee) was upgraded to probable.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield. A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year. this sort of thinking drives me nuts. assume regression by everyone to come to the conclusion that everything will be a complete disaster. I understand the need to view things from a worst case scenerio point of view, but come on. the return of Lee, swap of Soriano for Pierre, more Barrett less Blanco, second will be vastly improved with the exception of the September production the Cubs got from Theriot, progression by Murton that was amply demonstrated in the second half, and you have to assume that Aram will not have the horrendous bad luck he had in April and May 06. this offense will be vastly improved over 2006. Regression for Jones and Soriano doesn't seem to be too unlikely. Jacque Jones (32): 2003 - .304 .333 .464 .797 2004 - .254 .315 .427 .742 2005 - .249 .319 .438 .757 2006 - .285 .334 .499 .833 Alfonso Soriano (31) 2003 - .290 .338 .525 .863 2004 - .280 .324 .484 .808 2005 - .268 .309 .512 .821 2006 - .277 .351 .560 .911 They both had either a career year or close to a career year on the wrong side of 30. I don't think it's safe to assume that they can easily repeat those seasons. Same thing with DeRosa (32).

ZERO EMPATHY FOR IMB!! being a Sooner fan was a bad decision and their players and coaches made bad decisions during that game. That still doesn't change the fact that the refs screwed up and Oklahoma should have been awarded possession on the onsides kick. doesn't matter. they made bad decisions to be in a position to have Oregon beat them. Oregon made good decisions and therefore won the game. the actual circumstances of these things just don't matter. just ask IMB himself. unless of course he has double standards. You could say Oklahoma did plenty to lose that game, but what did Oregon do to win that game aside from just barely capitalizing on some horrible, horrible officiating the last half of the fourth quarter? It's usually easy to win a close game when the refs hand the game to you on a silver platter, but Oregon still had to sweat it out.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield. A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year. The only thing I don't understand is why Jones would slip all the way to his last two years with the Twins. Jones couldn't hit in the Metrodome-in just about every year, his OPS at home was significantly worse than on the road. That, combined with moving from the AL Central to the NL Central, was much of the cause for his having much better numbers last year than it simply being a career year for him. I did say closer, not necessarily all the way down to a .750 OPS. But even in his final three years in Minnesota, he only averaged about a .780 OPS on the road.

Awesome.

That's how I feel. Aside from Lee being healthy and addition by subtraction in regards to Pierre, this offense really isn't that much better. I'd expect both Jones and Soriano to regress with Soriano putting up 2006 Jones-esque numbers from last year (and keep in mind he'll be doing that in the leadoff spot, not with Lee and Ramirez in front of him) and Jones putting up numbers closer to his final two years with the Twins. And then you have the middle of the infield. A lot of things will have to go right with the pitching staff this year.

i'm willing to endure a down year from Soriano in 2007. Look at how bad Beltran was in his first year for the Mets Soriano will be 31 this season. A down year at 31 at the beginning of a long contract usually isn't a good sign. I think don't think Lee will be that big of a bust. I wanted nothing to do with him earlier in the offseason, but he should at least be decent despite being overpaid. One positive about Matthews Jr. is that he'd at least be useful as a 4th outfielder is he doesn't do well. Pierre, not so much.

Gary Matthews Jr. in a normal year still beats Pierre. I don't think there's any chance of the Pierre coming even close to paying off in the first year, let alone for the remainder of the contract. At least Gary Matthews Jr. was good last year.

Wow:

Nice job not challenging that, Gruden...

The better question is which long-term deals actually have a good chance of working out. I'm having a hard time thinking of any right now other than Ramirez.

In addition to Manning Jr. being out, Wesley is questionable with a knee injury, Clark is probable with a foot injury, and Thomas Jones is probably with a groin injury.

He doesn't understand the idea of career years, but look at the last five position starters that Hendry brought in: Soriano, DeRosa, Izturis, Jones, and Pierre. Ouch.

Especially considering the absurd contracts being given out this offseason, GMs are going to say some really stupid things this winter in order to justify the money spent/wasted. Please post any comments that you deem worthy and towards the end of the offseason, we can vote on which was indeed the stupidest comment. I'll start with the nominations. This has already been posted elsewhere and has to be an early favorite, but this offseason does look promising: "Pierre gets on base an awful lot, he had 200 hits, steals bases, he's a great guy to have on the club, a great quality human being." - Dodgers GM Ned Colletti.

He "smashed the ball" after the third quarter ended, apparently.

Read that post right when Deng lost the ball. I blame you. I accept whatever punishment your modship decides. It really went downhill from there... That was a what, 13 point lead? Now they trail by 1 at the end of 3.

Read that post right when Deng lost the ball. I blame you.

I don't see 3/45 getting this done. I'd have to believe he'd get a 4th year pretty easily.

Northwestern took care of Brown easily with a 64-40 victory.

The suck period started before Hendry acquired him.