Interesting statement. At first glance, a statement saying a team has to be either top 5 in offense or defense to make the Super Bowl seems outlandish. However, when you look at the last 4...Steelers D vs. Cards O, Patriots O vs. Giants D, Colts O vs. Bears D, Steelers D vs. Seahawks O. Only the Giants finished outside of the top 5 in both offense and defense, and they were 7th in defense. Only 3 times this century has a team been in the Superbowl while not having a top 5 unit or being top 10 in both. The 2007 Giants, 2003 Panthers, and 2001 Patriots. I don't think the Bears are good enough to be top 5 in either. I think if all goes perfectly, the Bears could be top 10 in both. If you use DVOA.... 2008 Cards O = 15th 2007 Giants D = 14th Also, the Bears were 7th in Defensive DVOA last year. So if they can maintain the same defense as last year, and break into the top 10 in offense (23rd in Off DVOA last year) then they would meet your definition. (Although I know you weren't referring to DVOA. I just like it.)