Wrigley Rat

These things bug me - why rush some of these guys? Many are so young - and we don't have a pressing need for many of these guys in Chicago. I fear that rushing them might cause them to lose confidence and lose trade value. Just not enough gained by rushing them in my opinion. Summarized: Craig - thanks a ton for reporting what Oneri said. I'm happy to read about it. If you remember anything else, please post it!

Thanks Ping!

Someone who has a BA Premium account (used to have one - not anymore), could you read this article about Josh Donaldson and let us know if it mentions where he should probably start the 2008 season? I heard it mentions the Cubs plan on keeping him behind the plate for this season at least. Thanks in advance. http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/features/265189.html

Our system is so awesome that Veal is 8, Dope is 21, and Pawelek is 29!!! Oh wait, no, thats why our system sucks. I agree - not the strongest organization out there, but I might say it's stronger than it was last year. The main difference is we're getting much older. If appropriate ages are 24 in AAA, 23 in AA, 22 in A+, etc. then many of our prospects are now becoming old for their levels. I think the Cubs brass are banking on those guys who tend to "figure it out" later in their minor league careers (i.e. Geoff Jones, Kevin Hart, etc.). They also are showing an attraction to pitchers who have already had Tommy John surgery, making them a year and a half to two years behind schedule (i.e. Adam Harben, Ed Campusano, etc.). They have also drafted college kids more heavily than high school kids recently which keeps ages much higher than normal. In response to Veal, Dopirak, and Pawelek being in the top 30, my opinion is that players who are one year removed from huge seasons can't be completely forgotten: - Now I'm no expert in all those new age stats, but Donald Veal had a 1.67 ERA in 80.2 IP, striking out 88, with a WHIP of 1.09 at Daytona as a 22 year old (appropriate age) just a year ago (2006). It's too early to give up on him. He should be given a chance this year to make amends. - Dopirak had a pretty good season last year, was injured in 2006, had a bad 2005, and had a great 2004. 17 HRs in 347 AB's last year with a .277 AVG at Daytona shows some pop, but he was one year too old. 39 HR's in 541 AB's in 2004 at Lansing is outstanding. If he can sniff those numbers, he has a future in MLB. He's only 24 and should split the season between Tennessee and Iowa if he's successful. - Pawelek had a really tough year in 2007, which is why he is 29th on my list. But he is a 1st round pick only three seasons ago. He is only 21 and had two solid years out of three. It's not time to give up on him, but his mechanics and his stuff seem to be regressing. If the Cubs had a decent minor league pitching coordinator, he should be able to diagnose the problem and make suggestions to Pawelek to fix it. Once the mechanics are fixed, the stuff should come back. I didn't mean my comment as a slight against your list and I also firmly believe in the 2 year rule. What I did mean was that formerly very highly thought of prospects have not developed. Now this is true of every organization, but in the cubs case, these were guys with gigantic question marks that people just ignored. Veal can't throw it over the plate, Dope doesn't even know what the plate is and Pawelek hasn't seen a plate since South Bend. We don't have some magic farm system that is correcting these glaring errors. We just ignore them and cross our fingers that they'll develop. Thanks - I didn't take it as a slight; my posts just sometimes sound defensive. I just like to rationalize my thoughts in an attempt to see if anyone agrees or if they have convincing arguments to get me to change my mind!

Our system is so awesome that Veal is 8, Dope is 21, and Pawelek is 29!!! Oh wait, no, thats why our system sucks. I agree - not the strongest organization out there, but I might say it's stronger than it was last year. The main difference is we're getting much older. If appropriate ages are 24 in AAA, 23 in AA, 22 in A+, etc. then many of our prospects are now becoming old for their levels. I think the Cubs brass are banking on those guys who tend to "figure it out" later in their minor league careers (i.e. Geoff Jones, Kevin Hart, etc.). They also are showing an attraction to pitchers who have already had Tommy John surgery, making them a year and a half to two years behind schedule (i.e. Adam Harben, Ed Campusano, etc.). They have also drafted college kids more heavily than high school kids recently which keeps ages much higher than normal. In response to Veal, Dopirak, and Pawelek being in the top 30, my opinion is that players who are one year removed from huge seasons can't be completely forgotten: - Now I'm no expert in all those new age stats, but Donald Veal had a 1.67 ERA in 80.2 IP, striking out 88, with a WHIP of 1.09 at Daytona as a 22 year old (appropriate age) just a year ago (2006). It's too early to give up on him. He should be given a chance this year to make amends. - Dopirak had a pretty good season last year, was injured in 2006, had a bad 2005, and had a great 2004. 17 HRs in 347 AB's last year with a .277 AVG at Daytona shows some pop, but he was one year too old. 39 HR's in 541 AB's in 2004 at Lansing is outstanding. If he can sniff those numbers, he has a future in MLB. He's only 24 and should split the season between Tennessee and Iowa if he's successful. - Pawelek had a really tough year in 2007, which is why he is 29th on my list. But he is a 1st round pick only three seasons ago. He is only 21 and had two solid years out of three. It's not time to give up on him, but his mechanics and his stuff seem to be regressing. If the Cubs had a decent minor league pitching coordinator, he should be able to diagnose the problem and make suggestions to Pawelek to fix it. Once the mechanics are fixed, the stuff should come back.

Here's my Top 30 for today - it's constantly changing: 1. Soto 2. Gallagher 3. Donaldson 4. Colvin 5. Vitters 6. Ceda 7. Hart 8. Veal 9. Samardzija 10. Petrick 11. Ascanio 12. Patterson 13. Campusano 14. Thomas 15. Harben 16. Fuld 17. Roquet 18. Fox 20. Holliman 21. Dopirak 22. Clevenger 23. Huseby 24. Lahey 25. Maestri 26. W. Castillo 27. Hernandez 28. M. Smith 29. Pawelek 30. Burke Honorable Mention: Justin Berg, Kyle Reynolds, Ty Wright, Rafael Dolis, Brandon Guyer, Mitch Atkins, Matt Avery, Alberto Cabrera, Russ Canzler, Dae-Eun Rhee, Josh Kroeger, Leon Johnson, Geoff Jones, Cliff Andersen, Larry Suarez, Juan Mateo, Ryan Acosta.

I am reserving judgment on this point until the end of the offseason. If Marquis and/or Dempster are traded, then there could still be a slot for Gallagher. Why? We're hearing Dempster being talked about, now Lieber is signed, Marquis is still up in the air. Still pretty quiet about the rooks. I'm hoping that that both Seans and Kevin have been told privately that their hard work over the off-season (hopefully Marshall getting stronger and Gallagher cont. his off-season conditioning) can be rewarded with a verbal commit. from the Cubs that they'll be given a shot. I have a suspicion that the talk of Dempster to the rotation was simply to drive up his trade value. I have no tangible reason to think this, but I don't think there was ever any real intent to give Ryan a slot. As for Marquis, it may just be wishful thinking. But Lou seemed awfully put out with him at the end of the season, so there may be some impetus to move him out. Also, if any trades happen, I think one or two of Marshall, Gallagher and Hart will likely be moving out, cutting down the number of slighted youngsters. I can only hope Gallagher would be the one left. Completely agree.

Not sure those players mentioned indicates true names being talked about but... I think the Cubs need a closer bad - Nathan is proven. If he'll sign an extension to stay with us for a few more years I'd be up for trading Veal, Donaldson, and Hart for him. I'm not sure that I'd give up much more, but those three all have question marks in their futures. Veal has bad control (though I still like his upside). Donaldson could stick at catcher, but for his age, he is pretty far away defensively. Hart may have figured it out, but he also might have just had a lucky stretch. He has one plus pitch and a decent fastball. Advance scouts may be able to clue teams in on his repertoire and then he's back to being average again.

None of these moves are surprising, but I'm glad to see some of the excess being removed. It helps to clarify the depth chart a bit.

I didn't really see Spearman catching on with either Tennessee or Iowa, and at age 27, he hadn't proven enough to take away a spot from any of the other utility players who are younger or have a higher upside. That being said, I had him being one of the last cuts though. I think this is more of the polite thing to do, so that Jemel has a chance to catch on with another organization before spring training begins. Just my two cents.

Thanks for the info on Marquez Smith - I hadn't heard about that. Guzman didn't originally make my Peoria roster, but there were very few good options for a backup shortstop, so I think Guzman could get his shot for that reason. Of course, a lot depends on whether Vitters makes Peoria or not.

Here are my guesses at position players (of course it all will change when they announce spring training invitees who will most likely bump a couple guys down). I would love to hear opinions, but go easy on me! I have listed my guys in order of who I would take first. Those in parentheses I would release/send to EST. Obviously, each team will not carry 4-5 catchers, etc. Iowa: C - Casey McGehee, Koyie Hill, Tony Richie (J.D. Closser, Danny Fatheree) 1B - Micah Hoffpauir 2B - Mike Fontenot SS - Joe Smiokaitis 3B - Matt Craig MIF - Carlos Rojas CIF - Bobby Scales (Jemel Spearman) LF - Josh Kroeger CF - Eric Patterson, Andres Torres (Chris Walker) RF - Jake Fox Tennessee: C - Steve Clevenger, Chris Robinson (Jake Muyco, Alan Rick) 1B - Brian Dopirak 2B - Nate Spears SS - Jeffrey Rea (this might be a stretch to ask him to play SS again) 3B - Kyle Reynolds MIF - Matt Matulia (Andres Blanco) CIF - Issmael Salas (Robinson Chirinos) LF - Corey Coles, Jeff Culpepper CF - Tyler Colvin, Matt Camp RF - Ryan Harvey (Yusuf Carter) Daytona: C - Welington Castillo, Blake Lalli (Mark Reed, Roberto Sabates) 1B - Russ Canzler 2B - Josh Lansford SS - Darwin Barney 3B - Marquez Smith MIF - Jonathan Mota (Nate Samson) CIF - Ryan Malone LF - Ty Wright, Alfred Joseph CF - Jonathan Wyatt, Leon Johnson RF - James Adduci (Brian LeClerc) Peoria: C - Josh Donaldson, Luis Bautista, (Mario Mercedes, Matt Canepa) 1B - Bryan Jost 2B - Tony Thomas SS - Dylan Johnston 3B - Jovan Rosa MIF - Gian Guzman (Jose Made, Bill Moss, Billy Mottram ) CIF - Marc Sawyer (Sawyer is a stretch - it might end up being Made or Moss) LF - Brandon Guyer, Drew Rundle CF - Cliff Andersen, Clark Hardman (Sammy Baez) RF - Kyler Burke

Thanks Ping - I appreciated this the most - it's always fun to see who just missed BA's Top 30.

I could have sworn Pagan had another year of options... perhaps even two, considering all the injuries affecting his service time. Pagan had one option left according to Arizona Phil (sorry no link). The Mets gave him up because they needed to clear a 40-man roster spot for Japanese RHP Yusaku Iriki. http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:x6weg9PSfFEJ:www.sportsline.com/mcc/messages/message/5642023+%22Cubs+acquired+Angel+Pagan%22+from+Mets&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&ie=UTF-8 (Near the bottom of the page)

Everyone makes a valid point here. But I'm torn because I think it may be an opportunity for a young pitcher to experience a tough challenge for a short period of time knowing that it will only be for a few starts. If Hernandez fails miserably, he can realize that the coaches are making valid suggestions that he needs to take to heart. If he is successful, then he may not work too hard on improving his secondary pitches. Either way, I am comfortable since he is so young and probably should repeat Peoria. However, getting a "taste" of A+ ball might not be the worst thing either. A similar concept happens when AA and AAA pitchers come up as a September callup. They get very little work, just get a taste of what's to come, and then start the next season in AA or AAA again. It's like a demotion, but they don't think about it that way since they knew ahead of time it was only a temporary situation. Just my two cents. But I love reading everyone's opinions.

Craig - thanks for the insightful comments. A few points to make to your comments: 1) I had Marshall making the Chicago bullpen as the second lefty. He always seems to have great springs and if he isn't traded I imagine he might stick as a reliever. 2) FYI - LR stands for Long Reliever not lefty reliever. That should clear up some of my apparent bullpen gaffs! :) 3) I appreciated your perspective on Veal and I think I might agree with you, but I hesitate to remove such a heralded prospect from the rotation after only one bad season. I believe strongly in the "rule of two." No one on my prospect lists can fall badly or rise immensely from one season's work. 4) My solution to Daytona/Peoria's rotation is Hernandez and Pina start at Daytona while Blackford and Muldowney start at EST, but when Blackford and Muldowney are ready to pitch at Daytona, Hernandez and Pina go to Peoria and two Peoria guys go to EST. Of course, I'm not Oneri Fleita so I'm sure it won't work that way. I don't personally feel that Hernandez has the stuff yet to be dominant at Daytona. I think he needs to keep building strength to improve his fastball (which sits around 90-92 mph) and improving his secondary pitches (mostly his curve since his changeup is reported as being a plus pitch).

Here are my guesses at the pitchers' assignments. FYI: I have chosen five starters and put them in the order I think they would pitch based on handedness, experience, ability, etc. The swingman would either go to the bullpen or pitch in the rotation in place of someone who is on the DL. Injury replacements (IR - not be confused with Injured Reserve) would either go to EST, be released, be put on the DL, or (at the lower levels) go back to the Dominican Republic to play on one of our two teams there. Iowa: SP1 Sean Gallagher SP2 Juan Mateo SP3 Mark Holliman SP4 Les Walrond SP5 Mike Smith Swing J.R. Mathes CL Jose Ascanio RHSU Kevin Hart LHSU Geoff Jones SU Billy Petrick SU Rocky Roquet LR Carmen Pignatiello LR Neal Cotts IR Jim Henderson IR Cory Bailey Tennessee: SP1 Jeff Samardzija SP2 Donald Veal (I think they will reconsider his being removed from the rotation) SP3 Mitch Atkins SP4 Adam Harben SP5 Greg Reinhard Swing Jesse Estrada CL Matt Avery RHSU Justin Berg LHSU Darin Downs SU Joel Santo (if he is moved into the bullpen, watch out! 98 mph FB) SU Rafael Cova LR Grant Johnson LR Tim Layden IR Yusdel Tuero IR Tanner Watson Release Scott Koerber Daytona: SP1 Chris Shaver SP2 Marco Carrillo SP3 James Russell SP4 Robert Hernandez SP5 Jose Pina Swing Dumas Garcia EST Todd Blackford EST Bill Muldowney Restricted List Scott Taylor CL Jose Ceda RHSU Alex Maestri LHSU Jayson Ruhlman SU Marcos Mateo SU Matt Maradeo LR Casey Lambert LR Jeremy Papelbon IR Jon Mueller IR Michael Phelps IR Yuri Higgins IR Miguel Cuevas IR John Muller IR Michael Bartek Release Andy McCormick Peoria: SP1 Dustin Sasser SP2 Chris Huseby SP3 Arik Hempy SP4 Ryan Acosta SP5 Zach Ashwood Swing Al Albuquerque DL Rafael Dolis EST Kitt Kopach CL Hung-Wen Chen (I stole this idea from Raisin) RHSU Audy Santana LHSU Chris Siegfried SU Jordan Latham SU Mark Pawelek LR Scott Meyer LR Blake Parker IR Steve Vento IR Simon Lee IR Chris Rivera IR Michael Bunton IR Corey Bachman IR Craig Muschko Sticking around EST & possibly going to Boise or Mesa: SP1 Larry Suarez SP2 Dae-Eun Rhee SP3 Jeffry Antigua SP4 Oswaldo Martinez SP5 Alberto Cabrera Swing Ryan Searle CL Arturo Florentino RHSU Marcus Hatley LHSU Harol Tolentino SU Cedric Redmond SU Junniol Lami LR Ramon Rache LR Kevin Kreier (I would release him, but we gave him $100,000 signing bonus) IR Jose Severino IR Julio Castillo Dominican 1: SP1 Alan Guerrero SP2 Francisco Acosta SP3 Yohan Gonzalez SP4 Gregorio Rodriguez SP5 Rogelino Carmona Swing Jose Montan CL Jose Tineo RHSU Miguel Sierra LHSU Marco Tovar SU Pacheco Mota SU Lenny Pena LR Tomas Sanchez LR Eduardo Figueroa IR Hernan Ramos Dominican 2: SP1 Manolin DeLeon SP2 Marcos Perez SP3 Julio Pena SP4 Edilmar Infante SP5 Ramon Reyes Swing Reinaldo Navarro CL Alejandro De La Cruz RHSU Wily Garcia LHSU Luis Astorga SU Gorge Pineda SU Dionis Nunez LR Carlos Rojas LR Bienvenido Beltre And any others we sign before the start of the season!

pass

Dempster has 1 year, $5.5 million left on his contract. Marquis has $6.375M and $9.875M remaining. Although what I read could be wrong, but a couple weeks ago I read that Dempster met some incentives that makes his contract for 2008 worth $7,000,000. Take that for what it's worth - I'm not willing to look for the link!

He has an option, but he won't improve against ML pitching unless he faces ML pitching. If anything he'll probably just develop bad habits at AAA because it probably won't be that difficult for him. We have to either commit to him on the big league club, in a platoon role at the least, if not starting full time, or trade him for someone who can contribute right now. I completely agree, but I sometimes wonder if the Cubs actually want to develop position players. In recent history, all of our impact position players have been acquired through trade or free agency: C - Michael Barrett - Trade 1B - Derrek Lee - Trade 2B - Todd Walker - Trade, Mark DeRosa - Free Agent SS - no impact players 3B - Aramis Ramirez - Trade LF - Alfonso Soriano - Free Agent CF - Juan Pierre - Trade RF - Cliff Floyd - Free Agent, Jeromy Burnitz - Free Agent I think the Cubs prefer to develop and trade for pitching prospects, but trade away position prospects because there always seems to be a lot of hitting talent available via trades or free agency. I really question their interest in fully developing and relying upon position players such as Felix Pie, Ryan Theriot, and Geovany Soto (who may be an exception since catchers are hard to come by). I think they are waiting to get full value for Pie via trade, but really want a heavier hitter in that spot. Who knows? My guess is that they will do everything they can to try to sign Fukudome and trade for Roberts, and we will see Pie as a backup or in AAA.

Does Pie have any options left? I think realistically that Pie could see more time in Iowa (based on his low success rate in winter ball and at the end of last year). That would free up Fukudome to play center and DeRosa to play right.

Does anyone know who we lost or picked up in the minor league portion of the draft? BA hasn't posted it yet.

It's funny how trade threads always end up being arguements over semantics. I want to get into the time machine someone was using earlier to listen to Levine so I can skip ahead and see if the trade happens or not. I'm in that time machine, and sorry to say the trade has not happened yet. I guess being two minutes ahead of the rest of you guys wasn't worth the millions I paid for it!

Nicely played.

Cripes, not another painfully long and agonizing thread... What would you do as a moderator to shorten them? Institute a mandatory castration policy for people who are clearly padding their post count. This reply is strictly out of irony, but happy 16,000th post-to-be! I personally appreciate reading your posts! :)