Ender

Seems reasonable to me, he's about the same quality pitcher as Lilly and a little better than Marquis, he's better than Meche though with less upside. The pricetag seems about correct depending on what that bit about the team option means.

Unless some major signings happen there is no team favored to win the division in my opinion. The Pirates won't win it. I don't think the Reds will be as good as last year, I think they made some bad moves that is going to make their 2nd half more likely than their 1st half. The Brewers are very capable of taking the division if their young players take steps in the right direction. The Cardinals and Astros both look worse than last year to me. The Cubs improved a lot but not so much that I think they are a lock for high 80's wins. Some team will get hot and pull out 85-87 wins and take it.

I think you're coming to see the incentive though. I think it obvious the Brewers have to shed a salary. the question becomes who. Jenkins, as you imply isn't going to be easy. trading sheets at this point would be like trying to trade Kerry Wood in 2005. not going to happen. Cordero? not with his performance. Clark? maybe, but that doesn't shed enough. who's left? I said in my first post in reply to you that I think Sheets could be available for the right price. The Brewers will not have to shed any salaries until 2008, and they are already losing Jenkins/Clark/Cordero/Koskie/Miller that year. The next time they will be forced to shed a salary to keep the core of the team intact is when Prince/Weeks hit arbitration. Cordero and Clark are also up after 2007. Simply put, dumping Hall is not necessary now because he doesn't make very much money, and he and Capuano are the only players due raises in the next 2 years. When you have a $60 Million payroll you don't salary dump the guy who was your best hitter the previous season who made $418,000 that season. They can extend Hall and Capuano, play out this season, and use Jenkins/Cordero/Doug Davis/Koskie/Miller/Clark's money to pay for the early arby years of Prince/Weeks/Hardy/Corey Hart. If they do need to dump a salary in the near future it will be Sheets $12 Million, not Hall's 4-5 Million. Hall is under team control for 3 more years, and will be a value for those 3 years. did you miss my point about getting rid of Sheets is like trying to get rid of Wood a couple years ago> who is going to trade for an annually injured pitcher for that price tag. I personally think you have to view Sheets and his salary as a Brewer until he proves he can make 30 starts in a season. There is a huge difference, Sheets has had one injury that caused his missed time. It caused him to miss time at the end of 2005 and he didn't recover from it until the middle of 2006. He has actually missed less than a full season between the two years with an injury that takes 6-12 months to recover from. Not really a good comparison to Wood at all.

The majority of catchers peak a year or two later than position players, they also wear down faster assuming they catch full time in the majors. Estrada hasn't been overused so I'd expect his 29-32 age years to be his peak seasons. I'm guessing he's a .760-.800 OPS type C. I don't like him that much but I think Davis has seen his best days and Vargas will improve a lot away from arizona where he pitched terribly in his career. 5.60 ERA home vs 4.12 ERA road in 2006 5.99 ERA home vs 4.38 ERA road in 2005 I'm gonna guess this either ends up as one of those deals that helps both teams or Davis ends up being a dud again this year and the Brewers come out on top.

No series has been more important on a regular bases than that series in the recent past so it doesnt' bother me much.

The Brewers are going to be a top 6 offense in the NL this year. They are a very feast or famine offense so far this year, probably because there is so much youth on the team but this lineup is solid top to bottom. I don't think you can just blame the Cub's hitting or the pitching, the last two games have been miserable all around, it happens sometimes.

I'd take that stat with a grain of salt. In 2004 Capuano faced the Cubs twice in a row and got shelled both times, after the 2nd game he admitted he was injured and tried to pitch through it but was shut down for the season. Those two starts he combined for 5.2 IP with 15 ER, so when healthy Capuano has done just fine against the Cubs.

3 hits and a HR today.

Harang, Claussen and Williams give the Reds a servicable top 3 of the rotation. Its the backend of the rotation that is going to be a nightmare. I would certainly pick the Cubs and Brewers over the Reds though, I think they will be in 5th place with the Pirates being in last. The Pirates offense is still terrible and the starting pitching is just too young for my tastes and most of the arms in their bullpen are on the downside of their careers.

As a Brewer fan I wouldn't trade Mevlin for any other GM. We seem to get 2-3 guys every year that come out of nowhere and put up solid numbers. Podsednik, Clark, Turnbow, Davis, Kolb, Wise. Not to mention the Sexson trade which has now brought us... Bush, Capuano, Ohka, Jackson, Gross and De La Rosa.

Wow it was meant as a light hearted joke, didn't know I was antagonizing anyone.

Pitching wins baseball games, my money is on the US or Venezuela.

Strange, my neck is sore from looking down in the standings at the Cubs last year and I don't see it getting any better this year.

Who was your 3rd pick? Helton? Very confused as this is the 2nd draft I've seen on this board with Wright, Abreu and Helton on it... there is no way Helton should be sitting there at the end of the 3rd round, not given his rebound in the 2nd half last year.

My gut instinct looking at your team is to say the league must be filled with inexperienced players. No way on earth you should have Helton, Wright and Abreu on the same team.

Just because it doesn't predict anyone to win over 90 games doesn't mean someone wont' win over 90. There will be a good team that wins more than its fair share of 1 run games or just completely out performs their RS vs RA or has a lot of players put up career years (see the White Sox last year and the Nationals in the first half last year). Those type of events will push someone over their expected W/L records. The same can be said for hitting projections. I would bet that at least one player hits 50 HR's next year, but there is not a single person I feel comfortable projecting as a 50 HR hitter. I would bet that someone breaks 140 RBI but I'm not sure I'm comfortable projecting any player in baseball to actually drive in 140 runs. Those events are generally are a combination of good health(see Teix and his 720 PA's last year), a better than normal year(see Andruw Jones) and luck(see Beltre's hit rate in 2004).

I'll give you the optimistic view on the Brewers, the every thing goes right view. C - Miller/Moeller - Not much to love here but they are capable of a .730 or so OPS with average defense. 1B - Fielder is capable of an .800+ OPS even in his rookie year. He has the plate discipline and power to be a .900 OPS player. 2B - Weeks has the speed and power combo to put up Soriano style numbers, unfortunately he has the same defensive profile as well. SS - Weeks was the 4th best SS in baseball in the 2nd half of last year. He could end up being the best pure hitting SS in the NL next year. 3B - Koskie/Hall has the potential to be the 4th or 5th best 3B combo in the NL next year. Of - Clark, Jenkins, Lee is one of the better OF's in the NL. None of them are superstars but there is no major weakness in that setup though its below average on defense. SP - Sheets is a complete stud when healthy, compares to ANY of the cubs starters even a healthy Prior. Davis is an ok #2. Capuano is an ok #3. Okha and Bush make a strong 4/5. The rotation is good but not amazing (this is where the cubs need to beat the Brewers as they could have the best rotation in baseball when healthy). RP - The bullpen could go either way, its going to be built on pretty low profile players but its been a strength of the team the past few years with the same type setup. There is no reason the team can't win 90 games if everything bounces there way. Odds are it won't and they'll be in the 81-85 range but I think you are selling them short if you don't think its possible that they contend for the playoffs.

PECOTA is better than most sources at judging pitching, definitely better than ZIPs. Its just that pitchers are incredibly unreliable in general so no system can do a great job with them.

Maddux had a 69% strand rate last year which generally means the bullpen let him down. He also had a 15% HR rate on flyballs which is abnormally high, a little bit of that is probably the wind blowing out but not all of it. His LD% was 22% which is very high for him, he's usually in the 17-20 range. His xERA was 3.29 which is very strong. I think projection systems think he just had a bit of bad luck last year leading to the higher ERA. With a 1.22 WHIP and a 52% ground ball percentage his ERA should have been below 4. Seeing stats like that two years in a row is scary though and its starting to look like a trend, however its not unheard of for a pitcher to have two bad luck years in a row and looking at the numbers behind his stats that appears to be what happened.

The good news is Dunn's contact rate increased last year and his average dipped because of a bad BABIP which will likely raise this year. His power stayed stable, his eye improved and his xBA went up 22 points, all good signs that this year will not only be better than last year but better than 2004 as well. The fact he is only 26 years old and will be in a better spot in the lineup just makes things even better. .271 avg, 112 R, 47 HR, 110 RBI (he'll still sit too much vs lefties and walk too much to go higher)

I also would not peg it for 90 wins, but I think part of the problem is they aren't household names. Sheets - 2.70, 3.33 ERA last 2 years Davis - 3.39, 3.84 ERA last 2 years Capuano - 4.99(rookie), 3.99 ERA last 2 years Ohka - 3.40, 4.04 ERA last 2 years Bush - 3.64, 4.49 ERA last 2 years (in the AL east) All 5 pitchers have posted sub 4 ERA's one of the past 2 years. 4 of the 5 are still under 30 and with Davis being only 30 they are all in the years where they stats should improve not regress in general. Each of the past 2 seasons those 5 have combined for a sub 4.00 ERA which isn't something most teams can say. I think Capuano or Bush needs to take a step forward and become a real #2/#3 to pull it off but as I said, I have them penciled in at 85 wins with 90 being the everything goes right upside. Lets say best case is they all repeat the better year listed above... you have 2.70, 3.39, 3.99, 3.40, 3.64 ERA rotation... that is a 90 win team rotation for sure. I'm not holding my breath for it to happen but i think the potential is there. Lets be more realistic and say each one ends up between the better and worse year listed. 3.02, 3.62, 4.50, 3.72, 4.07. Thats still a pretty nice looking rotation. As long as the starters don't regress which given their ages they most likely won't, I think the SP is still above average, just lacking a true #2 guy.

I'll start by saying I agree the Brewers are still a year away. The team needs to get more experience before I can actually pick them to win the wild card and I would like to see a stronger Bullpen and another frontline SP added. Having said that I think they are being underrated by some and obviously overrated by others in this thread. C- Miller is an average C, Moeller is a terrible backup 1B - Fielder is thought to have as much potential as D. Lee does, he is supposed to have that type of ability. I'm sure it will take a number of years to realize it but I fully expect him to match Overbay's stats this year. 2B- Weeks is another future star. His numbers last year were outstanding until a thumb injury killed the 2nd half of his season. The thumb was bad enough he was dropping the bat after some of his swings. This position is upgraded this season. SS- Hardy missed most of 2004 with a shoulder injury that he wasn't fully recovered from to start 2005, he also mostly skipped AAA. His second half stats are almost identical to his MLE's from the minors. While I'm not going to assume he'll fully repeat it yet, that is what his future stats most likely will be. This position is upgraded this season and if I were a betting man he'd be my pick for best overall SS in the division. 3B - Koskie/Hall - This combo will put up extremely good numbers. Koskie still hits righties very well and letting him have time off agianst lefties should hopefully keep him healthy. This position is upgraded this season. OF - Jenkins/Lee/Clark - The veterans of the team should combine for roughly the same stats as last year. This position stayed steady. Bench - Hall/Hart/Gross is a huge upgrade over Durrington/Magruder/Helms SP1 - Sheets - hopefully stays healthy, if he does this position is upgraded SP2 - Davis - Stats stayed steady, position should remain the same SP3 - Capuano - I expect a slight regression, not huge but some SP4 - Ohka - Underrated pitcher SP5 - Bush - Huge upgrad over the chuckleheads the Brewers marched out there last year who combined for over a 5 ERA out of the 5th SP slot Bullpen - mostly the same overall. So while the Brewers may not have made a huge splash in the FA market, they didn't lose anything significant and they have upgraded a number of positions. Their pythagorean record suggests they underperfomed with 81 wins last year so I think 85 wins or so are in order with an upside of 90 if Fielder and Weeks explode earlier than expected. Yost makes some mistakes, he plays small ball at the wrong times and he can have some problems running the bullpen but I still give him the benefit of the doubt as a relatively new manager, the team seems to really play well for him and he manages the SP and positional players pretty well.