goonys evil twin

Who, exactly, in this thread has been saying that "it was just bad luck"? BK has made an argument that the team isn't as bad as their record (or even run differential) would indicate, but I hardly think he's proposing that means that the team can just sit back and do nothing this offseason. Or is it someone else you are responding to? I've seen several people blame injuries for this team not making the playoffs this year. That's laughable to me. They were predictably mediocre with no OF production. They fell apart in 2004 and downgraded their talent level in 2005. Why anybody wants to follow the Dusty Baker excusometer is beyond me. What is so hard in admitting this wasn't a good team? No excuses.

I don't know about that. Hawkins had good peripherals, but fell flat in the end. Dempster walks the tight rope in his outings. It would not take much of a downgrade in those peripherals for me to see him falling on his face. I'd still like to see the Cubs sign a dominant reliever like Ryan or Wagner. Let Dempster pitch the bridge role, not entering in the middle of innings, but starting and finishing the 8th every night. Fell flat? Come on man Hawkins was plain terrible in the closer role. It wasn't even close. I don't deny that, I wasn't trying to sugarcoat. My point though is that Dempster was walking the tightrope. He wasn't a lockdown closer, despite the % (which isn't a great indicator of future success).

Oh great, the Tribune already has people buying the "it was just bad luck" line. Let's all look forward to an offseason full of stagnation and chemistry class, then everything will be perfect next season. Dusty's influence has been pervasive.

I don't know about that. Hawkins had good peripherals, but fell flat in the end. Dempster walks the tight rope in his outings. It would not take much of a downgrade in those peripherals for me to see him falling on his face. I'd still like to see the Cubs sign a dominant reliever like Ryan or Wagner. Let Dempster pitch the bridge role, not entering in the middle of innings, but starting and finishing the 8th every night.

I completely agree with you. Even during the brief times when they were healthy, they didn't play very well. Never did they look like a potentially great team, let alone one capable of winning 90 games. If Wood and Prior had each made 28 starts (big laugh I know), how many wins would you say the Cubs could've had? Prior made 27. I don't know. Maybe 85-88, maybe 90. But there's no guarantee. Regardless, this excuse making has to stop. The Cubs failed. The GM failed, the coaches failed and the players failed. What ifs are worthless. There is no excuse for a top 5 payroll to not get you 95 wins in any of 3 seasons.

I completely agree with you. Even during the brief times when they were healthy, they didn't play very well. Never did they look like a potentially great team, let alone one capable of winning 90 games.

What makes you think they'll be playing this weekend?

I agree they need more. But I think the Twins would love to deal both guys. Remember, no playoff revenue this year, which was something they had gotten used to in recent seasons. If they choose to lock up some young guys before they reach arbitration, this would help a lot.

baserunning

I would not eliminate the chances of such a deal. Hunter makes a lot of sense for NYY, but they don't have a lot to offer, besides salary relief, in return. But I think the Cubs have to give up more there. Give Minny Dopirak, and give the Yanks a young starter.

And once in Boston, then only 148 this year. Your superstars have to routinely play 150+ to justify the mega deals.

I can buy every part of your argument here except where you throw in, "Damon is only a leadoff hitter because his manager put him there. He doesn't have to be one, he certainly isn't an ideal one." Damon's numbers prove otherwise. There is no dispute. The entire reason I took issue and defended Damon in this thread is the absolute dismissal people showed for him stating he is worth 5 years and puts butts in seats. Clearly I think he is worth it and his numbers could do all the talking for him if there wasn't a microphone in front of him. Now the "fit" factor with respect to the Cubs came after, and that is something I am torn on personally. If the Cubs fill my personal desire for a bonifide leadoff hitter elsewhere, I'll be happy even if they show no interest in Damon. So you think Damon puts butts in seats? I don't. But I don't think that matters. An ideal leadoff man, is somebody who routinely puts up a .300 AVG and .375+ OBP, and probably puts up huge SB numbers with great efficiency, while walking more than he strikes out. Many say ideal leadoff men don't exist anymore. Fine, then don't go so hard after them and prop up lesser ones into stars when they are not. Damon could just as easily put up a .340 as he could a .375 OBP. He's nowhere near consistently great in that department. He is usually relatively productive, and yes, he is worth a good contract. But he's not somebody you hang your hat on to turn around an offense.

Ha ha. They lived with Bernie Williams for 15 years, and suddenly the throwing arm becomes a consideration. I'm not a Yankee devotee, but I thought Bernie used to be a very good fielder with a good arm. It was my understanding that an elbow injury has hampered him in recent years. Am I off base? That's pretty accurate. Bernie never had a gun, but he used to have great range and an adaquate arm. They actually wanted to get rid of him years ago, but the whole "true yankee" thing got in the way, and they stuck with him through loyalty. And in my opinion, paid dearly for it. His range and arm disappeared as his body broke down the past couple years. Bernie at his peak absolutely blew away Damon at his peak, and for an extended time. 8 straight years of .390+ OBP (4 were .400+), 6 straight years of .500+ SLG. Damon has never once been at .390 or .500. While he was a better base stealer, in recent years his numbers have decline, and they will probably stay down as he ages. Damon has also failed to play 150 games in 2 of the past 3 years. He's not a physical wreck, but he's shown signs of breaking apart a bit. The hollywood caveman thing scares me.

Age isn't the reason I don't want Damon. Although it plays a part. Damon's game is based largely on speed, and speed is a young man's game. Giles OBP/SLG game is much more adaptable to an aging body. But the main reason I would want Giles more than Damon is Giles blows him away in the production department. But this isn't a fair comparison. They don't play the same position (meaning there is not a competition for one or other and they are not mutually exclusive) and they don't bring any of the same values to the table. For production, compare Giles to another outfielder that produces. Damon is a leadoff hitter, what type of production are you expecting? As a leadoff hitter, he brings hits, OBP, respectable speed, and runs. He has scored 100+ runs per season for 8 consecutive years. Honestly, I don't see why Giles and Damon are compared for production. They represent two seperate needs for the Cubs (a leadoff hitter and 4/5 hole hitter, CF and RF) and they represent the top FA for their services at each respective position. The Cubs need production, plain and simple. They can plug Murton, Walker or Cedeno into the leadoff spot if they want. They need production, most importantly OBP production. Giles can be a 2 hole hitter wiith a .400 OBP, and solve any perceived problem for leadoff*. Damon is only a leadoff hitter because his manager put him there. He doesn't have to be one, he certainly isn't an ideal one. Production is needed, no matter what spot in the order it comes from. If the Cubs find the money for Damon and Giles, I wouldn't be upset, but if they pass on Giles and go hard after Damon, that would be incredibly stupid. Giles is the better player, and by all accounts will cost less. *to clarify. If Giles is putting up a .400 OBP in the 2 hole, you don't need a super star leadoff hitter. A simple .330-.340 OBP would more than suffice. Between those two spots, Lee and Ramirez would get plenty of RBI opportunities.

Age isn't the reason I don't want Damon. Although it plays a part. Damon's game is based largely on speed, and speed is a young man's game. Giles OBP/SLG game is much more adaptable to an aging body. But the main reason I would want Giles more than Damon is Giles blows him away in the production department.

Jeter's busy escorting supermodels through the scary streets of New York City. Sometimes preventing the tragedy is as important as stopping it once it's begun.

My goal is for the Bears to be a 12-14 win team. I don't think any of these QB's have a chance of winning that many this year. But the only two that have a chance of winning 12-14 in the next couple seasons are Orton and Grossman. So any playing time that can go to them should go to them.

But what does that mean. The words sounds nice, but it's just a bunch of subjective talk. How do you measure the effectiveness, the facilitations and his input? Baseball is not complicated. It's very difficult to play well, but it's the easiest game in the world to follow and understand.

Worst case scenario would be much worse than that. What makes you think they would automatically fill that spot with a dominating closer? Worst case is that he sucks, but Dusty keeps running him out there, then in an effort to fix the problem when it's too late, Hendry trades young talent for an aging has been like Mesa. And let's not pretend that can't happen. Hendry knows his butt is on the line this offseason, he'll spend all the money he has available, whether wisely or not. If he does not get the guys he wants in the outfield and infield, I think he'll look at BJ Ryan, Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner all sitting out there in free agency and sign one of them, figuring if nothing else, at least I can upgrade my bullpen quality to become a team strength. In that scenario, Dempster moves to the 8th inning. Sign a free agent middle reliever like Scott Eyre or Bobby Howry, and suddenly the bullpen WOULD be a big team strength. If you had Wuertz, Eyre, Dempster and Hoffman let's say in your bullpen, our notoriously inefficient starting pitchers would only need to give us a quality 6 inning start and we would shut it down from there. We've never tried that model, but it seems to have worked well for teams in the past like San Diego, Houston and Minnesota. Maybe we should try it. OK, that's all well and good. But you were talking about the worst case scenario, and making it seem like no big deal. Hendry signed his closer. Dempster is going to be the closer. I'd be really happy with Ryan or Wagner coming in and Dempster being a set-up guy, but that's not likely. What is most likely is Dempster closing, and he should be alright. But he could blow up with control problems and suck this year, and Hendry wouldn't have many fallback options.

I don't have as much faith in the Yankees talent. It's mostly old. Remember, Giambi sucked for about 2 months. And Tino played a lot of first. They didn't discover the upgrade to Cano right away, Williams is awful in CF. They Yankees are the only team in baseball with a worst OPS in the CF position than the Cubs were. Sheffield isn't the Sheffield of old. Posada is no star, and the Yankees were 14th in all of baseball in terms of catcher OPS, while Cincy was 1st. They had no true DH all season because they really have about 4 DH. The NYY were 4th in SS OPS, but Cincy was 6th. Cincy was 4th in LF OPS, the NYY were 19th. Hideki isn't Dunn, or even close. And, they have absolutely no good bench players, none. I think if you were expecting more out of NYY then you weren't really paying attention to the NYY. I don't mean that as an insult. Mike Francesa of Mike and the Mad Dog, said in the middle of the season: "Nobody thought this team would fail to win 100 games, nobody! Not one person thought they'd win less than 100." I don't know what he was talking about. I thought they'd be a little worse than they actually ended up. I guess we're all wrong.

Hatred by some. Healthy respect for most. Same is true for me and the Astros. I agree, Cubs/Cards 'hatred' is mostly a myth. There are some bitter fans on both sides but mostly it is a healthy, friendly rivalry. I would rather have the Cards win than the Astros or the Sox because a) their fans aren't obnoxious and b) they're probably the best team remaining and they deserve to win. The Cardinal fans aren't obnoxious? You must have never been to St. Louis before. They are some of the most arrogant and obnoxious fans that I've met. Of course I say that respectfully. The one time I was in STL, it was the airport. A couple of stereotypical 30 somethings stood near me in the bar watching a game. They were the most condescending A's I've ever heard.

And it's the in the Cubs nature to go after the toothiest.

Worst case scenario would be much worse than that. What makes you think they would automatically fill that spot with a dominating closer? Worst case is that he sucks, but Dusty keeps running him out there, then in an effort to fix the problem when it's too late, Hendry trades young talent for an aging has been like Mesa. And let's not pretend that can't happen.

They do have the best offence in baseball in terms of runs scored after adjustments for ballpark. However, Tony Womack is what you're wondering. Womack really didn't play though, he had 2 postseason AB's. I thought Tim was talking about the regular season. I certainly was. They scored the 2nd most runs in all of baseball, behind Boston. How could anybody expect them to score many more? And Womack was still only a utility player in the season. The 8 guys who qualified for the batting title all produced respectable numbers for their position, except Bernie. If you want to question their offense, the discussion would have to begin with him.

I think we'll just disagree. Age isn't that important in this case, he isn't poor defensively as claimed, relativity to other positions is inconsequential, and using splits to predict future performance is as meaningful as "clutch". Wait wait wait wait. What splits? I agree that using splits such as "close and late" or "RISP" is pretty meaningless. But home/road splits can be useful, especially for players that play in odd ballparks. For instance, everybody that looked at JB's overall 2004 numbers and expected something similar in 2005 were disappointed, while those that looked at his road splits got what they expected.