goonys evil twin

Well why don't all the other GMs have to prove anything to you? Omar stepped into a team in a crappy situation. Phillips gotted that organization. I didn't think Omar would be any good, but he's made that team better with his moves. I'd like it better if the Mets kept making stupid moves, wasting their resources on garbage, because that would make an NL rival less of a threat, and take them out of the running for other players. But they've done a better job than the vast majority of other teams.

The Marlins destroyed any chance of success for at least 2 years. They made the most of a bad situation, but you cannot rate them as having a great offseason. No team that will suck next year because of the moves they made can be considered to have a great offseason. The Mets only got a closer? They got a stud 1B (their biggest need), a stud closer (probably their 2nd biggest need) and a servicable catcher, something they did not have before. The Padres have not gotten better. THe offseason is about improvement. Resigning your own players isn't improvement. It's treading water. That would be like saying the Cubs had a great offseason if they simply signed Zambrano and Prior to extensions, but had no money left to make additions.

And Wagner. Compared with the Cubs that's a huge deal. I don't see how you can possibly name 5 teams that have done more to improve their team. I don't argue that they've had a bad history of making moves for names, but they didn't trade for Mo Vaughn here. They filled their biggest need with a huge bat. Then got LoDuca, who isn't anything special, but fills a position similar to the way Pierre does for the Cubs. And they got Wagner. This would be like the Cubs getting Abreu and Furcal, then adding Pierre.

What are you waiting and seeing about with the Mets? They had similar money to spend as the Cubs and similar must have positions (there's being 1B, the Cubs having RF). The Mets have blown the Cubs out of the water.

They said that or you said that? Neifi is a good glove. But no glove is worth $2.5m per year.

If there's any truth to the whole travel to his family thing, it would have to be. Chicago would probably be third only to Miami and NY as far as ease of travel home. Well, maybe Atlanta as well.

I think that is the primary motivation for most people who adamently oppose what they hear coming out of the non-traditional side of baseball.

Or how soft this team may have become. Say what you will about Dusty's teams but they are never soft. You didn't notice the 2004 and 2005 teams? They folded like a soft blanket. I meant in a "sticking a ball in a guys ear" sort of way. That's just stupid, not tough. This team isn't tough. That '03 team had some toughness. But this team has been weak minded (they let the announcers affect them, and collapsed repeatedly against bad teams) for 2 years. To say Dusty's teams are never soft is as silly as saying Dusty plays deep into every October, or Dusty's teams never win.

Or how soft this team may have become. Say what you will about Dusty's teams but they are never soft. You didn't notice the 2004 and 2005 teams? They folded like a soft blanket.

Let's hope it doesn't keep mirroring the regular season. Slow start, but everybody shrugged it off saying it was too early to be concerned. Then mild enthusiasm at the midway point with expectations for things to start turning their way in the second half. Only those breaks never came and they finished terribly.

What exactly do you think they are trying to achieve? Drumming every fast player out of the game? Sounds like more anti moneyball paranoia to me. As far as I can tell SABR people interested in objective analysis in baseball are trying to gain more knowledge about the game of baseball, they do research, and apply that research either with papers/books or trying to work for a team and making it better. What do you think their agenda is that would cause them to purposefully skew data and basically lie.

Soriano at 2B is a pretty good hitter. Soriano in the OF is a dime a dozen. I'd rather keep Walker as well. The Vidro talk should be considered backup plan talk if/when Walker is traded and the alternative is Neifi.

Nothing is solved by hitting Neifi anywhere in this lineup. You don't solve bad production by putting it lower. It's still bad production. You can hide him in a good lineup, but the Cubs lineup isn't good, without Neifi taking up a spot. Put Neifi in there with what is already there and what is likely to be in RF, and this offense is crap once again. That's not exaggerating, that's reality. Neifi doesn't belong in a regular lineup. If your 1-7 is great you can fit him in without hurting too much, but he does hurt. And when your 1-7 isn't special, he hurts that much more. The Cubs have to take risks because the alternative is guaranteed failure.

A, you don't know that. B, then you might want to become a Braves fan because they are probably the only organization that works the way you apparantly think all teams should.

The point is that we shouldn't be saying "get this guy, no matter the cost" when he's going to give you an .850 OPS, average at best defense, and is about to leave his prime for 4/50. I won't literally give up the entire farm. And I'd try my best to hold onto my best guys. But I give up a heck of a lot to get Tejada. I agree, I'd like to get Tejada too. However, a multitude of people in this thread are saying what I said above, or more specific deals like Pie, Hill, Williams, and Cedeno, maybe more. That sort of thing would cripple us, as I outlined earlier in the thread. I wouldn't start at that package, but if forced I'd probably do it, maybe minus one guy and do not think it would cripple us. Pierre is here for the long haul and Pie is no corner OF. Cedeno would have no purpose. None of these guys is likely to be as good at his job as Tejada is. The window is closing and all of them have backup in the system. Cedeno could move to 2nd, but EPatt is right behind and just as capable. This makes the Cubs better in the short-term (at least 2 years) and when that 3rd year comes up there would be multiple guys available who could be just as capable of filling in where those prospects would be expected to.

When financial issues are concerned, most GMs do not have "free reign". Boston ownership squashed the ARod deal due to finances. NYY ownership micromanages far more than Andy and the Trib. Florida ownership gets involved heavily with payroll matters, and have won 2 WS. Reinsdorf plays a huge role in every major acquisition. Arizona's ownership practically held the GM's hand for years. I can't believe how overblown people are making this possibly made up or exaggerated story. Schuerholz might be the only GM I can think of who gets a budget and can do as he pleases with no ownership meddling. Hendry hasn't proven he deserves an ounce of the freedom of the best GM in baseball.

The point is that we shouldn't be saying "get this guy, no matter the cost" when he's going to give you an .850 OPS, average at best defense, and is about to leave his prime for 4/50. I won't literally give up the entire farm. And I'd try my best to hold onto my best guys. But I give up a heck of a lot to get Tejada.

first, there is a nice mix of false choices (ie. the knowledge we have about speed may not be complete), disinformation, and putting words into my mouth here (Counsel my favorite player? you're thinking of someone else). second, just look at all the speedy players the Cubs have acquired over the years. the organization just oozes with over emphasis on speed, now doesn't it. What I wrote about Counsell was based on quotes from Hughes, not you. There was no disinformation in what I wrote. I never said they had a history of going after and overvaluing speed. I said they are currently going after and overvaluing speed. The Cubs plans seem to blow with the wind. Dusty has been whining about speed and fundamentals. Jim apparantly worships Baker and is going all out to solve these. Maybe he's doing it to say "Hey Dusty you got what you wanted now if we lose it's your fault." Or maybe because he really is as blinded by the hype as he appears to be. At various times in their recent history the Cubs have gone hard after filling a hole with a stereotypical player, to the detriment of the team. We need a proven closer. Hey, Afonseca saved 45 once. We need a versatile utility man. Hey, Macias fits the bill. We need a left handed starter. Hey Estes once won a lot of games. We need a proven starter to fill out that 5th spot this season. Well, let's move Dempster out of the closer's role and just hand him the starting job because he's started before, and just ignore how bad he was as a starter and how bad he was this spring. We need veterans on the bench. Hey, let's go with Rey Ordonez, Lenny Harris, Enrique Wilson, Tom Goodwin, Troy O'Leary, Tony Womack, Jose Hernandez and a host of others despite having similar players available in the system who are only different because they haven't yet proven that they aren't that good. When the Cubs get really excited about a specific trait, whether that be if a guy is left handed, a veteran, a proven closer, versatile, or even experienced in that ballpark, it does not work out. I feel that their infatuation with catching the ball and speed is very likely to turn out the same way. And I use their history of failure and whatever objective analysis I can get my hands on to substantiate those fears and show it's not just unbridled pessimism or paranoia.

Exactly my point. Tejada at SS is going to give you what we used to expect from Lee every year. If that was worth 3/22.5 in a down market when he signed, that that is worth 4/50 from Tejada. Those other holes become much less glaring with SS going from unknown to very good. Tejada becomes that 5th hitter we're looking for and probably not going to find, and still allows you to fill RF with mediocre or better production.

This is what I've been talking about the entire thread. Tejada isn't THAT good. What is THAT? He would immediately become one of, if not the, best player on the team. Remember, he routinely gives you production at SS that DLee normally gave at 1B. Tejada changes the makeup of this team. He's extremely good, and worth much young talent in trade.

Well, I should have said I'm not completely against trading Williams, but if they do, they have to get a really good bat for him.....and probably still find another starting pitcher. What do you consider to be "a really good bat"? Well, that depends on position. Tejada is a great bat. Abreu, Drew and Dunn are really good, or great or whatever word you want. There are lots of really good bats that may or may not be available. It might be easier to talk about what is not really good. Huff is not really good. Mench is not really good. They could help the team if acquired for a reasonable price though. Most of the names we've heard the Cubs have interest in are not really good. As things stand right now, this team has very little chance to be good. With a really good RF and no other losses to the roster, they should be a pretty good contender. if you lose guys elsewhere and end up with just a blah bat in RF, I'm not sure this team is better than more than 15 others in the league. If they get Mench or Huff, and lose Walker and Williams, I see a team with big holes still in the lineup, and a top heavy starting rotation with enormous downside risk. And another incredibly flawed roster that has no business making $100m combined.

So it's not okay to use what knowledge we have so far to say that speed in and of itself is not that valuable so as to demand a premium in money/talent traded? But it is okay to just assume that speed is really important and therefore spend half the offseason on a practically singleminded quest to find that speed come hell or high water and then pay a big price when you finally get it? I'm all for speedy players. I'd love to get some speed players at many positions. But what I'd love more is productive players. And until somebody can prove to me that speed in and of itself really does make a player more valuable that his numbers would make him appear, than I'm not going to go gaga over speed for speed's sake. The Cubs are in love with speed for speed's sake. They gave preference to "speedy" players who were significantly less productive than others. It's pretty clear they are basing almost all decisions on conventional wisdom while ignoring most of what rational unbiased objective analysis can bring to the table. See Hughes: "Pierre's my most favorite player". Gee, that's nice. Augie Ojeda was a lot of people's favorite player. And Craig Counsel was supposed to be one of your favorites before. You complain about what "sabr" lacks, but offer no alternative other than assumptions that speed must be good, and therefore it's okay to pay a premium for it and spend valuable resources for it. I believe you have to find a pretty solid mix of scouting and analysis. The Cubs are clearly a strict scouting organization, and that strategy has failed them miserably. They've shown no signs of bringing in other tools to their evaluation process. No $100m team should focus only on the "moneyball" approach and the "sabr" approach. They can afford to and should take risks on "upside" "potential" and "tools". However, the Cubs entire organization is focused solely on those subjective theories based on the conventional wisdom of a group of men who historically have at every turn attempted to thwart progress in the game and league. We're talking about people who not only still want to judge players on strikeouts, batting average, HR and RBI, but guys who say a pitcher can't make it if he's under 6'2", guys like David Kelton have such a "pure" swing that nobody in the organization should mess with it, Corey Patterson should be a leadoff hitter even though we spent his first three years with the organization explaining why he never was and never will be a leadoff hitter. This is a franchise with a history of nothing but failure, and a front office that has not shown nearly enough progress in 10 freaking years to prove they could be the ones to change things. Perhaps their view that conventional wisdom and scouting win out over objective analysis is a bit flawed. Perhaps their love for speed is just as flawed. Perhaps your defense of their beliefs is a bit misguided. Perhaps. Or maybe all these losses are due to goats or cheap ownership.

And even easier to greatly overvalue, which is something the Cubs have been doing this offseason.

Well, I should have said I'm not completely against trading Williams, but if they do, they have to get a really good bat for him.....and probably still find another starting pitcher.

I wouldn't call it stupid to see if this front 4 can get to him without any help. It's worked so far this year, and Pitt's pass blocking is weak.