goonys evil twin

I only mentioned 5/50 because that's what you included in your original reply to me. I never mentioned those numbers before, as they are quite unrealistic. But that's the point. Right now I think you can get something like 3/27-30, with a team option for the 4th year. After a healthy 2006, you would probably have to start at 5/50 and maybe higher. The point is you lock him in now to keep costs down longterm. There's a reason for locking guys up now instead of waiting. If costs stayed constant I'd have no desire to lock him up. The reason you sign him to an extension now is to get that option. While there is "no guarantee" he'd go for it, then you simply don't give him the extension in the first place. It's not like I'm asking to give him a 3 year deal with the hope that he'll just magically give up his first year of free agency later. The only reason you don't try and sign Prior to a reasonable 3 year deal with a team option for the 4th right now is if you are very concerned he will miss substantial time in year 2 and/or 3 of that deal. I for one, am not that concerned. Obviously any pitcher, or player for that matter, could go down at any time. But I don't view Prior as a Wood-like fragile pitcher with next to no chance to stay healthy for 3 years in a row. If I'm the Cubs GM, the next thing I do is give Zambrano a 2 year deal with a team option for the 3rd (his first year of free agency). After that, I lock up Prior for 3 with an option for the 4th. Hendry failed to significantly improve the team this offseason. So the next best thing would be to lock-in your best young players who are approaching arbitration/free agency. He didn't spend that $10-15 million on Giles or Furcal, so you can spend a little more of it on Zambrano and Prior this year, with the hope of keeping the cost down on them in 2008 and 2009.

But he has used Lee and Ramirez back to back. And he used Sammy, Alou, Ramirez and Lee backtobacktobacktoback in 2004, and AGonz/Grudz, Sosa, Alou, Karros quite often in 2003. Very true, I should have been clearer in my first post. I was more referring to his huge reluctance to have a RRRR or LLLL somewhere in the lineup. It seemed at times last year that he was adamant about breaking up the blocks of those hitters no matter what. Walker in the 2 hole wouldn't make any sort of block. Everybody who talks about the likelihood of a RH hitter in the 2 hole due to Pierre being LH conveniently forgets that Lee is 3rd. So it's either LRR or LLR. And with Ramirez likely 4th (unless Dusty is dumber than we think), it's either LRRR, or LLRR. Walker over Cedeno in the 2 hole makes most sense on several levels. He's far more likely to get on. He's the better hitter, and if you want to talk about breaking up LLL or RRR strings of hitters, a LH 2nd hitter makes most sense.

Depends what you mean about "our 2B". I think the odds that he starts the season on the roster are higher, post convention. It was clear that management's attempts to smear Walker in the press didn't work as well as it did with Sosa, Farnsworth and others. If the odds were 80% he's gone, maybe now it's something like 50%. But the odds of him actually being the everyday 2B for the whole season are probably still low. At most he'll be platooned with Hairston and Neifi. I still think he's gone, but the PR conscious front office might find it difficult to get rid of a guy that so many fans spoke out for at the disinformation sessions.

No that is not correct. I actually believe that is correct. This year, anyway, Blanco was set up to catch on Prior's starts. I don't know if they kept with it, but that was the plan, and I seem to remember that being more or less accurate (someone who actually knows where to find this out for sure, could you look this up?). Plus, Barrett's numbers are significantly skewed because of catching Maddux all season long. If we got rid of Barrett, do you realize how truly terrible this lineup would be? I really think that's a bad idea. I stopped counting after getting to Blanco 19 Barrett 4 in Prior starts. It started pretty even, but after the injury went clearly in Blanco's favor.

But he has used Lee and Ramirez back to back. And he used Sammy, Alou, Ramirez and Lee backtobacktobacktoback in 2004, and AGonz/Grudz, Sosa, Alou, Karros quite often in 2003.

If you do wait one more year, you won't have the chance to lock him up for a reasonable deal. Starting next offseason, with anything close to a dominant 2006, he'll be looking for 5/50 to just talk about an extension. If he has a dominant year, I am fine with that..A 5 year, 50 million deal would be more than reasonable. Also, thats pretty much the numbers that the posters here have mentioned that they want to give him now. If he proves it this year, I have no problem with it then. I'm the one who has been talking about signing Prior longterm this offseason, probably moreso than anybody else. And I haven't come close to talking about those numbers. What I want is a 3 year deal, with a team option for the 4th year, which would take away his first year of free agency. Comparing Prior to Wood is quite superficial. Wood's contract issues should not prevent you from extending Mark. They are different pitchers, with different health issues. Wood was always a disaster waiting to happen. Prior is more stable, despite the few nagging injuries that have limited his time. I think you can use his injuries as a potential bargaining chip in an extension, to keep the numbers down right now. But that won't happen after a healthy 2006. To me, if you have confidence in the guy, you extend him now.

I think it's more that a healthy Williamson > Wuertz. I don't think anyone's really "down" on Wuertz. We have a surplus in the pen right now, and Wuertz is right on the fringe. It's a good thing. The two posters I replied to said "I have zero confidence in Novoa or Wuertz," and the other "i agree. wuertz and novoa are the weak links." If that's not down on Wuertz, I don't know what is. I agree though, that a healthy Williamson is tough to beat. If both of those two guys have the type of years I think they're capable of behind Howry, Eyre, and Dempster, then we could have the best pen we've ever had. I agree with you on Wuertz. Last offseason, Bruce Miles was pimping Wuertz left and right, talking about his mental makeup, namely his refusal to give in to hitters, and his ability and willingness to throw strikes. Wuertz is a valuable commodity for this team. Talk of releasing him is outragously irresponsible. Bullpen arms are highly valuable in this market, and given their short shelf life, it's foolish to give up on one bullpen arms who have had some success. I don't want to trade Williamson, but I would much rather trade him for prospects than simply release Wuertz. Baker should be less demanding of Wuertz this season, especially early, when he ran the guy out there several times a week. Howry and Eyre's biggest value to the team is probably that they push Wuertz back to 6th/7th inning status, and should give Dusty confidence to pull tired starters earlier in games. I don't think either guy is really much better than Ohman, Wuertz or Williamson, but their presence means those guys won't be overused early as well.

If you do wait one more year, you won't have the chance to lock him up for a reasonable deal. Starting next offseason, with anything close to a dominant 2006, he'll be looking for 5/50 to just talk about an extension.

Yoda and Terence Mann all at once.

What is this? It means he can't hit right handed but since he attempts to against leftys he must be able to. In other words, switch hitters seem to get way too many benefits of doubts from managers like Baker that assume they can be successful hitting both ways when in fact they are not. Jones tries to hit from the right side? I thought he was strictly a LH hitter.

I'm hoping he will be as well. A career average Williamson could make this bullpen great, and a "peak" Williamson could make it unstoppable. This team has put all it's hopes on the pitching side of things, ignoring the biggest offensive problems. So they need top to bottom great pitching to thrive. Yep....and stay healthy to stop the Enrique Wilsons from being on the team and hitting in the top 2 spots. They wouldn't play in Yankee Stadium until the World Series, so there won't be any need for his stadium knowledge. They do play at Minnesota, but thankfully Jones and Blanco will be there to guide the team around the field. The question is which ex-Indian will be brought into show the rest of the team the ropes in Cleveland. Being a pitcher, Howry won't be able to help the position guys. This is where the value of Grissom comes into play.

What is this?

Dusty has shown over and over his tendency to completely overhaul the lineup with a lefty on the mound. Sometimes stacking as much as 6 or 7 righties in a row. The few times he did drop Burnitz were against lefties, and he's repeatedly sat his lefties against LHP, much more so than he's sat his mediocre RH against RHP. I think he's got a hangup with the L on L matchup. And in this case at least, it could serve the team well.

I'm hoping he will be as well. A career average Williamson could make this bullpen great, and a "peak" Williamson could make it unstoppable. This team has put all it's hopes on the pitching side of things, ignoring the biggest offensive problems. So they need top to bottom great pitching to thrive.

They're just about equals in my book right now. What advantages Murton has offensively are balanced by the advantages Cedeno brings defensively. Murton gets a higher rating when talking about the lineup. He's the better hitter. When thinking about the order, Murton gets a higher billing. When talking about overall value as a player though, the position comes into play, and Cedeno gets a bounce there. Neither player is likely to be great, for his position or otherwise. Both should be perfectly acceptable for their position, age and cost, though.

I think this should illustrate your point.... Williamson IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA 08/22 - 10/02 8.3 7 1 1 2 13 1 127 2.16 14.04 1.08 1.08 1.08 04/04 - 08/21 6.0 8 8 8 4 10 2 121 6.00 15.00 3.00 2.00 12.00 04/04 - 10/02 14.3 15 9 9 6 23 3 248 3.77 14.44 1.88 1.47 5.65 Seriously, let's relax a bit on the "he's back" talk. 9 innings doesn't mean much of anything. I would be willing to bet that Wuertz has had comparable 9 inning stretches, and Novoa may have even shown similar dominance over such a small stretch. And Williamson had the benefit of stready amounts of rest between outings. We have no idea how he'll pitch on greater stress due to more frequent outings and over a longer time frame.

I wouldn't be surprised to see bullpen arms moved, but I'd be surprised if it was Williamson, at least until well after the season is underway. The guy is the least known quantity in the bullpen. His past success suggest the possibility that he could be a good reliever again, but his arm troubles and unimpressive return last season create enormous doubt. Nobody is going to give up much of anything for him now. And the Cubs have no business trading him away for prospects anyway. This is a team that has to win now. Unless somebody inexplicably offers up an absolute stud prospect, there's no way you consider trading decent major leaguers that can help the team right now. I would think it's far more likely that some of the younger relievers would be moved. But it'd be absurd to release Wuertz, and I wouldn't see the point in doing the same with Novoa, even though I have next to no confidence in him.

Man people are putting a ridiculous amount of expectations on Cedeno right now. He's a decent bet to have an acceptable season at the plate, but he's no top notch 2 hitter, not yet at least. Anybody who bats 5th in a lineup with Pierre, Lee, Ramirez, and even an average 2nd hitter has a chance for 90-100 RBI. That wouldn't be an accomplishment. Falling short of that would be a complete failure. Jones has no business seeing the 5 hole on this team. It's not a matter of "naysayers" predicting a collapse by him. Rather, it's a case of rational people looking at his career and putting together a reasonable expectation for what he'll do this year. Jones sucks. He's not an undervalued player looking to prove his doubters wrong. He's proven over and over that he's no good. He's consistently unimpressive, and should be nowhere near the middle of a lineup outside the smallest markets where they can't afford anything better than his poor production.

I'd rather keep Prior & Zambrano b/c one of them is what the Reds would have asked for. The Cubs would had to overpay for Kearns, since the Cubs & Reds are in the same division. A combination of Williams & other prospects wouldn't have done it for the Reds. IIRC, there were reports during the GM meetings that JH had talks with the Reds about Kearns & that the cost was too much. I don't think the Reds would seriously ask for Prior or Zambrano for Kearns. That's just not realistic in the least.

I'll take it. I still want a multi-year deal that postpones MP's FA one year. IIRC, the Cubs control him for 3 more years. 2006, 2007 and 2008. He might be making over $10m in arbitration by the time 2008 comes around. I'd like to see them put together a deal that bumps up his 2006 salary a bit (incentive for him) and locks him into 2007 and 2008 salaries around $8.5m and $10m, but also gives the Cubs an option on 2009 (the Cubs incentive).

I don't know what this means. His job will be the same regardless. And over the course of the year, he'll face the same level of competition regardless. If those guys are hurt and they try to get him to throw 8-9 innings a game, it will have an effect, but I don't see that happening. Spot in the rotation doesn't really have an effect on performance. The only exception might be if you took an unstable unproven kid and made him your opening day guy and put all your hopes on him. That stress might affect him. But Greg's spot in the order is not going to affect how he pitches.

I don't buy that for Maddux. That's barely a stepdown from their prediction from 2004 188.0 3.56 33.8. I thought I saw he was at 28.1 last year. So they are assuming he'll improve? He'll turn 40 this year, and his past 3 ERA+ have been 105, 113 and 101. I realize he doesn't have any real comparables throughout history, but I think we would be lucky if he just doesn't regress. Counting on improvement seems far-fetched. note, I just googled VORP and Maddux for my numbers, so if some other source has something else, I could be wrong.

AL East.

The Red Sox have doubts, but only the type that make you wonder if they can win 95+ for the 4th straight year. They are pretty much a guarantee to at least flirt with 90.

For what it's worth, they were on the list, assuming you are talking about the one discussed in the posts just prior to yours.