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goonys evil twin

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Everything posted by goonys evil twin

  1. goonys evil twin
    Aardsma is also consistent.
  2. goonys evil twin
    I would hope.
  3. goonys evil twin
    What happened? Please don't tell me another pitcher just went down to injury?!??! Rothschild HAS TO GO NOW!! The last hit was a line to Mateo, according to gamecast, which makes me think he was hit by the ball. Jacque Jones is consistent.
  4. goonys evil twin
    If it did, then it should be measurable through the production with and without Lee. And just because someone hasn't derived the mathematical formula for it (the psycholofical effects), doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Luck can't be measured either, but it's alluded to, in explaining why someone's stats vary significantly from normalized stats, like BABIP. The point is, if the psychological effect of losing Lee was an overall negative, it would show up in the production of those players that were affected. So it would be measurable. The players on this team are relatively close to what should have been expected of them. You can't really point at any one player and say he's doing much worse than he should have, and then blame that on Lee. So if the players aren't doing any worse, you can't justify the claim that the loss of Lee caused them to play worse due to the psychological blow.
  5. goonys evil twin
    Sounds like the Pirates are getting Cubby today. Or they just want the draft pick.
  6. goonys evil twin
    I'm a glutton for punishment.
  7. goonys evil twin
    If you foolishly traded a lot for the guy, and are stuck in the middle ages when thinking about the game of baseball. And insist you must have a leadoff hitter who is fast and hit a lot in the leadoff department before. And you don't really care about the one stat that most proves the players lack of value. And you plan on signing the guy longterm. I can see why you wouldn't have any interest in trading Pierre.
  8. goonys evil twin
    It's been said a million times, but it's still pretty amazing to see how closely Dusty adheres to the CF must leadoff, 2B must hit 2nd, LF must hit 7th game plan.
  9. goonys evil twin
    Pathetic, again. This woman is a terrible excuse for a journalist, writer, or whatever she's calling herself. The only two possibilities are black magic or bad luck? There's no way that somebody is doing something wrong? Prior has arm issues, but she only focuses on the oblique? The only way you can tell a coach is doing something wrong is if the players say so. This woman is maddeningly dim. As an insider with the team (writing for the team as opposed to an entity charged with covering the team objectively) we can't expect much, but seriously, what's the point of even having these things.
  10. goonys evil twin
    Well nothing does tell this story. We're all trying to predict what would have happened if a certain event wouldn't have transpired. What in life has definite answers like that? Stats can give you a solid foundation for your opinion. The rest is guesswork. When did I say stats did otherwise? My argument is that people take those stats and then effectively stop thinking. VORP says four wins, so that's that. Four wins it is. It's silly. VORP doesn't measure a player's total effect on the field. I know intangible is a naughty word here, but there are aspects to player and team perfromance that aren't measurable. I don't think many people have said "VORP says four wins, so that's that." I think it's quite offensive, and typically insulting of people who follow stats, for you to say that people "stop thinking". Most have looked at several different measurements and came up with the conclusion that whatever number it was, it was probably less than 10-15. It's not a case of people looking at a stat and saying "that's that".
  11. goonys evil twin
    Fred, what's your record so far this month. You're doing a heck of a job taking one for the team, although it's a lot more than one.
  12. goonys evil twin
    Bynum and Theriot are actually pretty similar.
  13. goonys evil twin
    If it did, then it should be measurable through the production with and without Lee.
  14. goonys evil twin
    The question is how much of an upgrade, and whether or not that is enough. A .500 season would be an upgrade on 2006, it still wouldn't make me happy though. And it should not be a target.
  15. goonys evil twin
    Is there an actual postseason all star game, or is this just a list to honor the best players?
  16. goonys evil twin
    That is the key point that we have to hope Jim Hendry realizes. Without acknowledging that this is a bad team, instead of pretending it's all been a bunch of bad breaks, there will be no impetus for change. And without change, this team can't succeed.
  17. goonys evil twin
    Now you're changing your estimates. This is the problem. When you arbitrarily assign value to things you are almost certain to value them incorrectly. This is how the Cubs build a team. They haphazardly put together a team with random and arbitrary stats (Jones hit .300 once, so-and-so hit great with RISP, Izturis led the league in hits for two months, etc), and the end result is a mess of a team with no direction. As a fan, it really doesn't matter how you value players. You can choose to value whomever or whatever you want. But a GM, and any other person concerned with how a team is put together, has to use tangible, measurable, objective means to value the players they are considering for the roster.
  18. goonys evil twin
    I could see wanting to have Walker and 2nd and Mabry at 1st over Neifi/Hairston at 2nd and Walker and 1st. Even though Neifi actually outproduced Mabry in May, when this whole thing went down? Mabry has been crap. Pretending he needed more time is just reshuffling deck chairs.
  19. goonys evil twin
    Ramirez was crap before Lee went down. And his numbers were actually quite good, overall, during the Lee-less time. It doesn't make much sense to blame his poor at-bats on lack of production, when he was just as bad with Lee in there, and actually ended up improving with Lee gone. I meant Ramirez's performance during Lee's DL's stint 1. After Lee went back on the DL a 2nd time Aram was great. Yeah, so that pokes a hole in your theory about protection. If he was bad without protection and good without protection, you can't really say protection had anything to do with it. You can't pick and choose time periods and ignore those that conflict with your theories, if you want to convince anybody.
  20. goonys evil twin
    Ramirez was crap before Lee went down. And his numbers were actually quite good, overall, during the Lee-less time. It doesn't make much sense to blame his poor at-bats on lack of production, when he was just as bad with Lee in there, and actually ended up improving with Lee gone.
  21. goonys evil twin
    I think what he meant was that Walker shouldn't have been getting AB's at 1st base. He should have been getting them at 2nd. Bad as Mabry has been (and he's been awful), he's been better than Neifi and Hairston this year. And his defense at first would have been better than Walker's. I really think that's what Rogers meant, but I realize Rogers didn't make that clear in the column. Mabry was as bad as anybody on the team in April and May. There's no justification for wanting him to have played more.
  22. goonys evil twin
    Beck and Morandini?
  23. goonys evil twin
    Wow-I just went and looked up the Cubs statistics from that year, and that led me to the MVP voting that year-not only did Sosa win the MVP, but 2 other Cubs were among the 24 who got at least 1 MVP point. Anyone know without looking who those two other Cubs were? Just a guess but Kerry Wood and Mark Grace Those are two good guesses, but surprisingly neither of those is right. Beck and Tapani?
  24. goonys evil twin
    I think I started posting on my first message board, espn.com's cubs page during that season, or else right after that season. At the time there were like 4 people who would each write 1 or 2 things a day. There were no threads, just one post after another, and you could see the whole month's posts on one page. I think part of the reason you don't hear much talk about that season on here is because so few people were writing on message boards about it. Plus, it was a long time ago. Teenagers now, a big part of this community, were young kids then. Plus, it wasn't that good of a team, and they didn't make any noice in the playoffs. I remember at the time enjoying the season, and making a couple road trips to see them in Chicago, and in Atlanta for the loss in Game 2. It was cool to finally see the team in the playoffs again. But you could tell the team wasn't built for the long haul, with so many lightning in a bottle type players.
  25. goonys evil twin
    Yup-a phenomenon that is happening intermittently the last 3-4 weeks, one that is actually well reasoned out. Wow, and it took Dusty how long in the season to figure it out? This is a big problem with Dusty's "everybody gets a clean slate with me" and his "I have to see it myself" philosophy. Jones proved for a long time he couldn't hit lefties. But Dusty wouldn't do anything about it until Jones failed to hit lefties while playing for Dusty.
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