toonsterwu

Really? Even that still seems a reach for me. It'd be one thing if he played great or even good defense, but he doesn't. Most reports now are saying he looks like he can be an average 3B defensively. I'd like to think with the lines starting 3B are putting up, Vitters will be able to at least accomplish that. I am not a big Vitters guy ... but yes, he looks like he still has a shot to be a league average 3rd baseman. Average 3rd base line this year, so far, unless I'm looking at the wrong numbers, is .252/.316/.400. He definitely looks capable of being average, if not better than that, offensively, and that could account for any defensive shortcomings.

I actually grew up ... sort of ... around that neck. Well ... 2 years (1st and 2nd grade), and not really VA Beach. A bit inland (Poquoson, if you know the area).

I got a good chuckle out of this. Meatball professor, huh? I'd ask what class, but then I might find out who the person is, and ... I'd laugh if I ever saw them.

Interesting analysis. Random thoughts, fully noting that grades are subjective: C - I think the depth is fine, but it's debatable, up and down the system, if there's a potential quality starting catcher in the mix. That said, there's an outside chance of a couple backup backstops in full-season ball, and Castillo has some ceiling, so like raw, I tend to think a D+ is a bit harsh. That said, Castillo plus some raw talents in the low levels ... I think that's enough to go C on it. Take a look at catching depth in most systems - I can't think of many organizations with catching depth that is definitely superior to ours (maybe a handful of organizations come to mind, mostly because they have a top talent). I still have some mild, mild intrigue with PED using Luis Flores. CIF - A- seems awfully generous. I see one top prospect (Rizzo), one "keep an eye on how he does in the next few months" in Vitters, and some raw guys far away, with one guy likely having a high ceiling (Candelario). If I had to plop grades on them ... I think that'd be one A-/B+ guy in Rizzo, maybe a borderline B+ guy in Candelario, and B's or lowers on the rest. When you factor in that there isn't really a guy that projects as an above average defensive third baseman, A- seems awfully generous. But that's me. I guess I could go B+ on it. MIF - I think this is a stronger overall group than the CIF group ... but the lack of a top talent in the upper levels makes it tough for me to buy A- as well. I don't know ... I guess, A- suggests quality depth and a potential impact guy in the upper levels, and while the depth is there, the impact guy in the upper levels seems debatable. I think there's a case for CIF to have a higher grade than MIF, because there is raw talent at CIF in the lower levels and an impact guy. I really don't know if I'd put Logan Watkins in that grouping anymore either (that is, don't really see him as a guy to, say, keep an eye out for ... I guess he could barely hang on as there are some tools). I guess I'd lean towards B+ on account of Baez's ceiling ... but the lack of a quality upper level guy that definitely sticks in MI (as you note, Lake likely moves off) makes it hard for me to go A- on it. As a side note, anyone besides me find it interesting that Torreyes' K rate has really risen this month? OF - See, here's a case where I think this is a group that could deserve an A-. Really comes down to how one views Brett and Matt. I tend to think both will see time in the bigs, likely be decent starters. If one believes that (and I'm sure many might disagree), then the fact that there's upper level talent, plus defensive CF's, and a high ceiling talent like Soler, plus an intriguing kid in Almora ... that's nice. Add in some raw toolsy guys to keep an eye on, and it's a good mix, with some power ceiling. RHSP - It's a bad grouping right now. Rhee's been a disappointment (although ... there's an intriguing statistical note with him - his GB rate has been steadily rising ... so if a breaking pitch ever came along ... ). I won't take you up on that bet ... but I do think there is probably a guy in our system, maybe even two, that will end up making 20+ starts in the big leagues. The thing is, I'm just not sure it'll be with us (and if you asked me to pick a guy right now ... I'd go with Wells or Whitenack, even with the injury situations for both ... with Arias 3rd). I'm still in a wait and see mode on the draft class ... a lot of arms, but how many of those guys, on paper, really look to have a chance to be impact arms? LHSP - I don't know if I agree with the grade. I'd probably nudge it up a bit. But that's quibbling. I have no idea how he's doing, but if he gets healthy, I'm still intrigued with Graham Hicks. Saw him a few years back ... some room for projection (granted ... room for projection doesn't mean he will ... ) Pen - Strictly looking at potential end of the game type arms, and you don't see that many, unless some starters move to the pen,, I wonder if a C is ... a bit high. I've never been a huge fan of Dolis ... loved the upside, didn't like the excuses for why he wasn't K'ing that many people. I like Cabrera/Hatley, but it's also not hard to envision a situation where inconsistency means those guys aren't closers. I like the Conway addition and think he could make a difference. If Zych's breaking stuff tightens up, and he maintains his quality command, he might jump. But he's still behind Cabrera/Hatley for me. Agree with the conclusion. I've said, as of right now, I think this is an 8-12 system. I don't know if we can crack top 5, though, even with good trades. You'd basically need at least two upper level impact prospects to really add to the group, preferably both pitchers, to think that this is a top 5 system. But it's improving.

There was a Cubs snippets in the chat, nothing surprising.

Maybe you might have an answer for this ... do you recall the last time that Peoria didn't have a piggyback? Because ... it looks like we don't have a piggyback for now, just maybe long guys out of the bullpen to help guys like Cates/Concepcion/Peralta, with Roario/Jensen being full starters.

Noticed that Zach Cates was sent to Peoria. I'm assuming he takes Kyler's spot in the rotation there, either as a "full-load" starter or a piggyback guy. That roughly puts the rotation there as what ... Jensen, Rosario, Peralta, Concepcion, Cates? Do we still have a piggyback there, since Peralta was moved off of Concepcion? Doesn't seem like it.

The same could probably be said for Rebel Ridling, especially now that we have Rizzo and LaHair as well as Bour now in front of him, not to mention Vogelsbach and Shoulders, he really doesn't stand a chance. That'd be fine with me too. Problem is, who do you call up from Peoria? I guess ... Hoilman/Geiger/Cuneo could all go up and stopgap for a few months, but expectations aren't really high for 2 of the three, and Geiger is still a big work in progress. You can always find an arm to send up a level (Hunter Cervenka has done enough that sending him to A+ isn't the worst idea, particularly when most of the lefties in Daytona are in the rotation). ' I'm just not sure what happened to Rebel ... he had a solid 2011 in AA.

Gotta love the middle IF guys. Those last 4 you named, Lake and Baez is a pretty strong group, especially when you consider Barney and Castro are in their pre-arb years also. Throw in Jackson, Almora and Szczur all being capable of playing CF, if the old adage is true about being strong up the middle....the Cubs could be in really good shape in the future. I tend to think that the position player strength is strong enough to bolster the system to a 8-12 ranking. Considering how awful the pitching is ... that's saying something. Don't forget about Stephen Bruno when talking about MI guys. I'm a Marco Hernandez fan, but Bruno should get PT at shortstop. In many systems, he'd work his way up short. The ability is there, and worst case is that he comes up at 2nd. He played 3rd at UVA because Keith Werman had 2nd, and he lost the SS job to Chris Taylor when he got hurt. I'd also note that I'm still intrigued with Carlos Penalver, as his defensive reputation was supposed to be that good, although I don't recall AzPhil's reports being that glowing about him (I think he mentioned once that he looked good, but was still finding his game, or something like that).

The concerns on Candelario growing out of the position aren't unwarranted, though. He's a big, big kid, particularly in the lower half, and he's only 18. If he's 180, then I'm in the prime shape of my life (I'm not). All that said, I'm fairly pleased that the defensive reports have been so positive thus far. Some bigger guys can make it work and be passable-average at 3rd. He'll get every shot, as 3rd base is still pretty barren in the system after Vitters, if they keep Baez at SS.

So was looking for some stuff and accidentally clicked on a Frontier League link. Got curious, and peeking around, I found former Cubs farmhands Jovan Rosa and Alvaro Ramirez with the Normal Cornbelters. Rosa was one of the last draft-and-follows. Was a JC middle infielder, moved to 3rd, played some first, and then the Cubs tried him at catcher. Had an intriguing 2008 season, but the power never developed, and he messed with his swing in an effort to generate power in 2009 in Daytona. Was moved to catcher in 2010, and then fizzled out. Looks like he's struggling. One of my favorite prospects in 2008, and one of my bigger, personal, disappointments in recent history, relative to what I had hoped for. After 2008, when you asked around, a decent number of folks thought that he would develop some power down the line and have above average power (obviously, not everyone thought that way, but a fair amount of folks I talked to said it seemed possible). Alvaro was an older kid. Already 23 when he signed with us, he had been signed by the Yankees at age 20. Had some good numbers in Boise, but fizzled in Peoria and he was gone. Looks like he's been raking in the frontier league.

He's had one average start and one really good start in the minors, both games against Corpus Christi. Going to be interesting to see if the can find the form he had in 2010.

Struck keeps trucking along (solid 4 innings of work so far, 1 solo homer, 1 walk, 55 pitches), with enough solid outings to keep some intrigue, but doesn't seem to be making significant development. Needs some sort of pitch to get some ground balls to give him a shot. Sub-40% GB rates with average stuff makes it tough to really envision anything that meaningful. Still very young (age 22 season). If he can't develop that change or some other option, I do wonder if his fastball plays better in the pen, and his attacking mentality may help there. He does have some good life on the fastball.

Really don't see the point of keeping a guy like Schlitter around in A+. If he can't hack it to their standards in AA at age 26, it's time to move on and give him a chance to latch on with another organization/head abroad. Seems like it's been so long since David Cales name has been listed. He was on a bit of a fast-track before surgery. Still probably more of a middle relief guy, though.

I wonder if he's going to be in the rotation? I imagine if he is in the rotation, he'll be back to his high 80's, topping in the low 90's velo. If he can consistently go 93-94 out of the pen, I don't know if I would be against fast-tracking him a bit as a pen lefty. I liked him enough as a starter, but there's a glut of back of the rotation, average velo lefties. Btw, was AzPhil's comments the first time that it was "confirmed" that Wells had TJS? Shame, but I guess once the news came out, we all anticipated TJS.

It sounds like a good job for a minor league hitting coordinator to deal with. Early in the year, it sounded like they (more likely the hitting coach in AAA and Brett as I don't recall hearing about Beyers spending time with Brett) were working on stuff, but this is a 2nd stretch of bad for him.

i remember reading - i think this was even before the draft - that there didn't seem to be anything mechanically wrong with his swing. not a slow bat or stepping in the bucket. he just swings and misses a lot, but then he also squares up a lot of balls when he does make contact. seems pretty weird. I'm honestly baffled with Brett Jackson. I'm still a fan, but honestly, there's been guys with bigger issues than Brett that struck out less than Brett. It's odd, you'd think for such an ... intriguing prospect ... that someone more knowledgeable would've done some swing analysis on him. There just doesn't seem to be any major issue with Brett, unless he's having problems with breaking balls ... it seems to be a lot of small issues lumping together into a gigantic mass of bad this year.

You lucky son of a bitch. I'm on the East Coast. I mean ... heck ... to be honest, the only Cubs fan I know in my area was some girl in the office who grew up in Chicago (has since moved on). I think ctcf said he was on the East Coast? I'm sure there's a few more (I'm assuming JCF is on the East Coast).

The only reason I threw Utley in there is because his contract expires after 2013, so there isn't that long of a commitment. That said, as I noted, and as Truffle expanded upon, the chances of them falling too far from the 2nd wildcard spot seems ... unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. I think they should consider selling unless they are directly in the thick of things (and not just barely hanging on), as I think this team can only go downhill (age, high chance Hamels is gone, some other parts likely to move on), but I also understand that they probably won't unless they are simply out of it, as truffle noted, because there's always reason to hope when you have that type of pitching.

I tend to think that if they move Hamels, that would constitute "full on sellers", because, well, you don't trade arms in their prime like that if you think you've got a shot. I could actually see them try to move Pence, maybe Lee, and honestly, if Utley hits, maybe even Utley, along with some spare pieces ... if they fall far enough out of the race (say, Blanton, Polanco). Victorino would be another possibility. Some pieces (Rollins/Howard come to mind) fall into the Alfonso Soriano realm of trade possibilities - chances are slim. The thing is ... it's hard to imagine them falling too far away from the 2nd wildcard spot to go to full sell mode. They'd be wise to consider it, even if they are still barely hanging around, as some of their pieces would bring back solid returns, and well, the system is fairly weak right now.

Ah, okay, I guess I misread SCS's comment there. I really don't converse much with average Cubs fans though, so didn't realize average Cubs fans felt that way about Campana (I guess I've seen a smattering of comments on boards supporting Campana, but didn't realize it had gotten to that point).

I understand that. I have no qualms with the idea that there should be concern on Brett Jackson. I've defended him a lot, but some of his bad stretches have been horrible this year. My only point in the Vitters numbers was that, for all the talk about him improving, those numbers are fairly comparable to what he did a couple years ago between A+/AA. In short, to put it another way, I want to see him kick it up a notch AND maintain his performance. _____ The Saunders comparison is an interesting one, but one note is that Saunders never had Brett Jackson's power, despite his ISOP numbers. That's one thing that's sort of forgotten as Brett has moved up the ladder - there once was concern on whether or not he would produce enough power if he was moved to a corner role. That concern really isn't there now. Of course, that doesn't diminish the major concern with Brett. _____ Tim - are you sure he's having problems with good breaking balls? Or, let me rephrase, are you sure that's a, for lack of a better term, big issue (he's having problems with a lot of things this year, obviously). I just haven't heard, during his time in the upper levels, that much concern over his ability to recognize and hit good breaking balls (sure, he would K on them, but it was never something that I had heard was a significant issue) as something that would block him (again, talking more about the ... severity of the issue and not whether or not the issue exists). I've heard some swing mechanics issues before, and the swing does get long at times. Couple that with some holes in his swing, and his aggressiveness, that's always what I've attributed the 25-30% K Rate on (and hoped that it would get better as he matured). But this year's been so awful on the K front, with some awful stretches in there.

Do the Phillies have anything worthwhile? Not sure how I feel about Domonic Brown at this point. I'd probably roll the dice on Brown if they offered it (I'm guessing I might be in the minority on this), but I doubt the Phillies would come calling on Barney. They like Galvis enough, Frandsen and Andres Blanco can be decent stopgaps, Utley is signed down through 2013, and Rollins through 2014 with an option that can trigger for 2015. I have my doubts that they will move Utley. I guess, if they moved Utley, maybe. The Phillies system is fairly weak, particularly in the upper levels, but even their lower levels don't really intrigue all that much. Still like Trevor May a fair amount, though that is not happening in a Barney deal. I'm still of the opinion that Barney is a poor match for the club relative to what we hope will happen, as his position is one of the few spots where we could realistically find another top of the order bat (I mean, I've always said that I don't think Brett Jackson should be a top of the order bat. Szczur is one possibility, but there's still a need for another, and Szczur's a year to two away if all goes well), but I am also of the same opinion as others have noted here - his value to us is higher than what we could probably net in a trade, and considering we are in a rebuilding mode, throwing him out there is valuable, particularly since his good defensive abilities would likely help what should be a changing, and probably young, pitching staff in the next year or two. Only way I think we could get justifiable value for Barney is if a team had a need at short and thought, like Theo did in 04, that upgrading team defense would significantly impact their chances. That said, it's hard to see what team would take that gamble and also offer enough. Dee Gordon is the future, and likely will get every chance in LA. Other than that, I couldn't think of any other team that had this scenario, barring injury.

Hamilton has a shot to stick at short, which already gives him a leg up on Campana. He also doesn't pound the ball into the ground as much as Campana (who has had GB% numbers in the high 50's/low 60's whereas Hamilton is around the 50% mark). I'm not sure if Hamilton has that much more "real" power over Campana, but he's probably more of an offensive threat than Campana, and Campana's speed, which is plus, is not close to Hamilton's speed, which is plus-plus ... and hell, you can probably throw another plus in there for emphasis.

I would just point out, though, that Jackson's baseline (floor) is far higher. Even at his worst, he'll take walks, he'll hit HR's, and he'll play an average to above average defensive CF. The issue is whether or not he'll be able to lessen his strikeouts enough, and along with that, whether or not he'll hit for a high enough average to be a quality starter. The baffling thing is that, he really doesn't have an issue that screams, high K rates (he's aggressive, but he's not a hacker, he has a solid understanding of the strike zone, it's not like he has problems reading breaking balls or lacks the bat speed to catch up to average fastballs ... to the best of my understanding, the hole in his swing isn't that bad but others are probably more knowledgeable on that front ... the swing gets long at times, but that happens for a lot of guy ...). I've defended Vitters defense before. It'll never be great, and it might never be average, but for a few years, in his youth, he's probably serviceable at 3rd if he hits enough. Before we get too giddy about the other stuff, he did have a walk percentage similar to this year's in the past (2010 in A+/AA), and his ISOP is not significantly higher than it was last year, in his 2nd go-around in AA. He has some odd splits this year, though, so I don't want to say the power is simply PCL influenced, but .... he is hitting for a lot more power on the road (significantly, significantly, ridiculously significantly better hitter at home this year).