toonsterwu

Mat Germain (Halifax, NS): Why was Jeffry Antigua left off the top 10? Based on performance, I'd place him ahead of the 7-10 guys on this list. Jim Callis: I think you're a little high on Antigua, but he is the best lefthanded starting pitching prospect in the system. The list isn't based just on performance, especially for players in the lower half of the minors. He has a chance for three average or better pitches, and he commands his fastball well for his age. That sounds much better than the commentary/blurb that BA made about him awhile back.

That's definitely fair. The previous comment seemed odd. Basically, he's Brad Hawpe-ish as an offensive projection right now, but he could improve against lefties.

Yeah, they have Kyler in their projected starting line-up in 2012, but not in the Top 10 prospects. Seems like a disconnect there. Im really shocked that Jackson has leapfrogged VItters and Cashner in the BA list. Not a bad thing, just means that our system has some depth. Also, as far as the NSBB list, I thought that Coleman would have been there, but I have no complaints with the list. For once, Im really excited about our farm system and hope we dont trade any key players for rent a players. With Ricketts love for the farm system,, I wouldnt think that would be a problem anyway. Just out of curiosity, does Wellington Castillo even register anymore? I'm somewhat stunned by the Brett love. Ithink you can make an argument that, after Castro, you can rank our guys in several orders and have a fair case, but that was still high. I'm still high enough on castillo (top 15 prospect for me). He showed improvement offensively and defensively, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt due to the bad luck early. I Think you could find a Bengie Molina type guy, if all goes well (or a Hank White type of guy). That said, I understand why some folks are lukewarm on him.

This shouldn't be surprising. BA's list is heavily influenced by org sources, and every indication is that the Cubs FO is really high on Logan Watkins.

It's a fair analysis based on the information at hand, although Hulet doesn't really assess any of the expected projection. That said, it is far from certain that Castro will hit his high end projections right now. Even if he doesn't, that's a solid looking shortstop if he can produce at that level.

That was an excellent AIM conversation, and very impressed that you sorted through that aim thing.

IIRC the Santana trade timeline correctly, Bill Smith worked himself into a jam by trying to force more out of Boston and the New York Yankees, with both sides eventually stepping aside, letting the Mets swoop in with a "meh" package. Is there media bias towards big city prospects? Sure. It's a byproduct of, well, being in a big city. I think it's fair to say that many folks have questioned if some Cubs prospects were overhyped. Do New York/Boston prospects that get overhyped, get overhyped a bit more? Perhaps. That said, I doubt scouts are influenced. It's their job to go out and see and judge these guys. The Yankees system, moreso than the Red Sox, has probably been a bit more overhyped relative to talent. Theo's done a good job building a system and developing talent in Boston. Btw, the rhetoric this offseason on Boston and New York teams seems to be, to me a) Red Sox system is talented, but thin at the top levels. b) Mets system is quite thin. c) Yankees system has a couple intriguing pieces, but their advantage may be their wallet. Short of it is, I'm not sure that national media is really overhyping these three teams prospects all that much this offseason. There's some individual pieces of interest. A guy like Austin Jackson isn't as good as anticipated, but could perhaps be a decent big league CF.

This is more sleeper than breakout, but I wonder if James Russell will finally put it together. It's been two years in a row that I've wondered that, though. I've got him ranked higher than most people, so he wouldn't be a break out for me, but I could see Welington Castillo have a good year and be considered a breakout by some. I think Rebel Ridling is a guy who will put it together and be consistent year round .. or he will flame out. I'm not sure which way I lean, but could be a guy for consideration. I am tremendously fascinated with Wesley Darvill, but I'm also not sure what to think of him. The good speed now, the power expectations, and the nice fluid swing. May be more of a breakout for 2011 than 2010, though, considering where he's likely to start 2010. I had low expectations for Justin Bristow this year, so the fact that he came through with a decent year was nice. I wonder if he can break out next year. As much as pen arms can break out, I wonder if Henry Williamson could fit into the mix. Can an end of the rotation type arm really break out? If so, I wonder if Craig Muschko, who I think will get a rotation spot in Tennessee, puts together another solid season, despite average stuff, and force some attention his way. I like some of the guys mentioned as well as 2010 breakouts, like Jeffry Antigua, Ryan Flaherty, Kyler Burke, Dong-Yub Kim, Trey McNutt (though I think Dan McDaniel has me a bit more wary of McNutt), Brooks Raley. Oh, I wonder if Larry Suarez can take a step forward. I'm also still hopeful on Dan McDaniel. KingCubsFan -Last I checked, Cerda had been moved to third base.

Odd, thought I posted in this thread before. Whether or not Castro makes the bigs next year, I don't know. I'd rather see him spend more time in AA, and get some Iowa time. That said, I do believe our offseason planning will be impacted by Castro. I doubt there's going to be a key middle infield signing (that said, I'm perfectly fine with Baker at 2nd). As for whether or not it's too early to get excited - thing is, let's assume that he doesn't meet the high end expectations. That is, he doesn't become a plus defender who runs well and has above average power for the position while making quality contact. A decent expectation right now is a decent contact bat who is solid defensively. Considering the position, there's enough reason to be excited about that, in my opinion.

I still am probably higher on Castillo than most, and I respect the heck out of AzPhil ... but 5th? Wow ... I mean, I was ranking Castillo in the early teens for a bit as a nod to him being in the upper levels. 5th? I also can't put a closer as our top prospect if there's other quality talent, but that's my own little hiccup. Now, if you view Cashner as a future starter, then sure. LeMahieu at 6, much as I like him, seems high to me. That said, tis the fun of it all.

It's possible, but the Cubs, while aggressive with some guys, have been fairly, for lack of a better word, careful (not the best word choice but can't think of anything else right now) with Vitters in not trying to force too much.

Sanchez hasn't been the stud in college that I think some people expected. That said, maybe he'll break out next year and move on up.

It'd be nice, but that's just a lot of money that I can't see the organization doling out this offseason.

me neither. as for snyder, he's at best, a lefty bat off the bench. doesn't make enough contact yet and swings away too much. personally, i think he signs with another club this offseason. i guess i could see iowa bringing him back to give some punch to that lineup, but i think he moves on.

It didn't have supplemental, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round picks. yeah but then they dropped $10M on samardzija then gave big bonuses to rundle and anderson, who suck, and huseby, who's a closer but came along a little bit. not having high draft picks hurts but the first round pick wasn't good, they overpaid for samardzija and then gave big bonuses to the wrong guys later in the draft. Numbers-wise there's still a huge disadvantage by losing those draft picks, even though they did overslot those guys. Plus they've actually got several guys who will have MLB careers(Samardzija, Clevenger, Parker, Colvin), and Huseby has turned things around as a reliever, so it's not as if they struck out on any value from the class. Add in that it's too early to write off Huseby from ever starting again. Certainly not a great draft, but without those picks, to net a few guys who are likely to reach the bigs is passable, considering the circumstances.

I think Wilken's tenure has to be viewed positively right now. That said, a lot of it is based on the 2008 draft, as the 2009 draft is a wait and see, and 2006 and 2007 were okay at best. But the 06 draft could be somewhat excused due to the lack of picks, and the fact that we're going to get our first two picks to the majors in some role, in all likelihood, should be viewed as a positive. Some misses late in 06 on the overslot guys like Rundle and Andersen, but them's the breaks. 07 was hitting heavy, and I viewed that as a year where we drafted partly to fill positional spots in the system. I'm happy enough with the 09 drat in the early stages. I think many Cubs minors followers believe this system to be in the middle of the pack. Is there a chance that some folks put this system in the early 20's? Sure, and it wouldn't be that implausible. The difference between the elite and bad systems are a lot, but the difference between two middle tier systems usually comes down to the eye of the beholder. I think there are some general minor league fans that have a negative view on the system due to recent history. No, this isn't an elite system yet, and I don't think anyone would argue that, but it's headed in the right direction.

on top of that, Han Ram's defense was never expected to be good, and Castro's is. That said, yeah, seems like Castro is rocketing up and should rank rather highly on most top 100 lists.

I like the idea of Lee in CF because it would give us a plus range guy who potentially could also hit at the top of the lineup. Btw, does anyone know anything about Jason James? 5'10" 175 lb from thebaseballcube. Drafted by Mets in the 32nd round in 2004, but spent the last 3 years in Indy League. I bring it up because, scanning JJ Cooper's chat on the Indy League, he notes that James had the best swing in Indy Leagues this year and signed with us. Sounds mildly intriguing, but don't know about his range or power projection (although I'd guess that it wasn't great). Sounds mildly interesting, although it could be another typical Indy League signing that we won't hear much of in a few years.

tbh, I've seen Shark mentioned with a ton of pitches. Another answer to the above comment from Serge could be a simple case of him toying around with a variety of pitches, trying to find consistency on some. Although I'm pretty sure that it is a split-change tweener type pitch (can a split-change be called a tweener ... combination is probably the better word).

yes, and I think BA's Cardenas rankings have been harsher than expected. Now, I think he was a bit exposed this year, but he's still an intriguing prospect.

I think his 3rd offering is sort of a tweener split-change pitch, IIRC, and thus, that's why you see it listed both ways. Could be way off base, though.

Flaherty-Theriot might be one of the weirdest things I've seen in awhile. As for Dolis, if he really is that much sharper on his secondary pitches, then he is definitely worth protecting over Papelbon. The only reason I suggested that we protected Papelbon earlier in the year was in an effort to potentially save money, but if the Cubs are going to keep Grabow, then Gaub would be the 3rd or 4th lefty anyways (Grabow/Marshall/Gorzelanny - one of the latter two could be the 5th starter) which makes any purpose to keep Papelbon minimal, particularly considering I find it unlikely that both Papelbon/Ruhlman get picked, so we'd have a passable guy in AAA still. I think Castillo/Gaub/Parker all need to be protected, with the latter two potentially fitting in pen roles in 2010 or 2011, and with Castillo ready to potentially challenge if Soto struggles in 2010 (assuming Castillo develops and shows more consistency).

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/espn-chat/2009/268994.html I guess on talent/ability, Vitters is more likely, but one of the shortstops will have to definitely switch a position if they develop. It does make me wonder on the potential for one of the shortstops to go to 3rd, although I still think it's more likely that one of them goes to either 2nd (Castro) or CF (Lee). I wouldn't move Lee to 2nd as I think he can be better utilized in CF.

Was mildly surprised that Shark made it, but guess it's an upside nod (and the fact that it was the PCL). Was mildly surprised that Jake Fox didn't get a "number 20" nod, although a) Don't know if he qualified. b) He's not talented enough to force his way onto these types of list anyways.

I am very happy to see Rundle make that transition. He didn't seem like he was going anyplace as a hitter. At the very least, it's another young lefty to add to the bunch, and he's only 21, so the age isn't that bad if he has to start low next year.