toonsterwu

Buddy of mine who saw Bour recently said that his swing seemed all out of sorts compared to earlier in the year. That said, when you are slumping, things can look that way. Looking at the numbers, seems like there's been a measure of bad luck for him the last month and change. Granted, he seemed to be quite lucky his first two months, and particularly May. He wasn't going to maintain that ridiculous pace early, but the more important question had always been how much power he would develop. His ISOP is down quite a bit in June/July, more in line with last year, so we'll have to see if he can find that stroke again. Another guy who has tailed off tremendously is Ha. Actually, outside of April, he's been quite bad at the plate in FSL play. Certainly, one could argue a measure of bad luck, but he did seem to be a bit lucky in April. The more worrisome trend is how his power production has been tailing off tremendously. Here's hoping he turns it around. His combination of tools and stellar defense probably keeps him as a top 10 prospect in our weakened system, but earlier this year, he seemed to be building momentum as a possible top 5 prospect in our weakened system.

Hmm ... I'll take it as positive development that Collin Richardson got the bump up, which leaves the only prep pitcher from the 2010 draft still in AZL as Hartmann, and he seems to really be scuffling. That said, only barely 19 so I imagine he'll get a bit more time.

Really think Luis Liria would be in my top 10 of emerging Cubs prospects. A bit surprised at the scouting report noted the other day - stuff out there had always suggested a plus change instead of a good breaker, but it seemed like the report the other day suggested the opposite. Either way, he's been fairly strong. Golden would, as of now, be solidly in my Cubs top 10 prospect list. Last year, the working assumption had been that his approach and development was a bit behind, but he had huge potential. So far, he's showing awfully well in Boise right now and I would love to see him move up and finish in a full-season league.

Rhoderick, to the best of my recollection, is a 92-94 fastball guy with a good slider.

Most expect him to. How much is the question. He was a difficult guy to project in that, coming out of HS, he had good to plus speed, but was so skinny. Some folks think he could become a Flaherty-esque guy, particularly if he moves permanently off short (should be clear, the Flaherty comps were pre-2011, when there was some question as to how much power Ryan Flaherty could produce). flaherty hit 20 home runs in 2009, i don't think there was ever much question that flaherty would have good power for a middle infielder... i think the bigger issue with him was where he would play. Sure, but this year, he's certainly showing good power for a corner infielder/outfielder, so I wanted to make that small distinction. I know some folks felt that Darvill could have solid-good power for a middle infielder, but of course, that's a lot of frame and swing guess-work. Furthermore, I know there were folks after 2010 that questioned how Flaherty's power would play against tougher pitchers. I remember the reports back in 2008 and 2009 on Flaherty gave the impression that some folks thought he was a polished bat eating up younger pitchers.

Most expect him to. How much is the question. He was a difficult guy to project in that, coming out of HS, he had good to plus speed, but was so skinny. Some folks think he could become a Flaherty-esque guy, particularly if he moves permanently off short (should be clear, the Flaherty comps were pre-2011, when there was some question as to how much power Ryan Flaherty could produce).

Peralta jumping over the Boise arms is ... intriguing. Haven't checked to see if this was a scheduling issue, though.

I'm huge on Struck, but man ... this sort of feels a bit rushed for the kid. Here's hoping it all turns out well, but entering the season, I was simply hoping he'd have a strong year in Daytona.

I was mildly surprised that Geiger was sent to Arizona. I'd be surprised if he didn't get a call-up to Boise at some point later this summer, provided that he is still going strong.

I think there's a solid chance that at least Candelario starts next year at Boise. We could have a really dynamic group of LA guys in XST, far more dynamic than recent crops. I wonder if Daniel Sanchez comes over. Still a bit curious to learn how the Cubs made the decisions to assign which guys to certain squads. Used to think it was high talent/low talent type of thing, as most reported, but Penalver and Candelario are clearly two of our better DSL guys and they are on 2.

Depending on your definition of intriguing (high ceiling?), I think you have to have Reed ahead of Wang and Kim. But yeah, I think Liria is the most interesting starter at Boise besides Ben Wells. Wish there had been an opening for him in Peoria earlier. I definitely agree with you that you have to shut down Simpson at this point. in terms of ceiling, it's probably something like Wells/Reed/Liria/Cruz/Kim/Wang (a bit hesitant to mark the last three that definitively, but short of it is, on ceiling, I think you have to slide Reed up a ton and chalk up any issues now as growing pains and hope that he gets over them). I don't know where to fit Starling Peralta in that grouping though (and can get away with not doing it since he's in Arizona for now). It was just more personal intrigue, which is a vague and vacuous comment. I guess, more of a who I would put my money on in regards to reaching the bigs type of idiotic comment. As a random aside, I wouldn't mind seeing a couple of these guys move up to Peoria later this year, assuming an arm or two from Peoria goes up to Daytona.

jung and francescon followed and were each terrible... peoria is down 15-4 in the 5th inning. When all is said and done, Simpson might end up a bigger waste of a 1st round pick than Mark Pawalek. Rhee, on the other hand tossed a 7 inning complete game shutout with 6 K 1 BB 2 H. That's what happens when your scouting director makes reach picks in the first round. I believe Pawalek, Colvin and Simpson were considered reaches. As has been noted, Pawelek was a Stockstill pick, and was considered a guy who fell. IIRC, there was a pre-draft deal in place. Colvin was a half round high. Most indications, to the best of my recollection, was that, on the day of the draft, he was likely to go 1st, just more late first (with a chance that he could fall to the supplemental). IIRC, one of the teams hot for him were the White Sox. Simpson was either a half-round to 1 round high, depending on which rumors/spec you believe. There were a couple teams that were rumored high on him. Off the top, Rays/Angels come to mind. I do believe that it might be close to time to shut down Simpson, though. I understand the opposing argument - he doesn't gain much by sitting a year, but what does he gain by struggling this much right now. I'm not sure it's worth it anymore. He's gotten in some work, let him get some time to rest/get stronger/put back lost weight and contemplate giving him a go in the Arizona Fall League. I doubt they'll go that route, but that's what I'd do.

Liria's very intriguing to me. He reminds me of a ... better Robert Hernandez (it's easy to forget, pre-suspension and inconsistencies, Robert Hernandez was fairly intriguing as a young arm who had some success at an early age). He's probably the 2nd most intriguing arm to me in that talented Boise group (I'd go Wells/Liria, followed in some order by Cruz/Wang/Kim/Reed (probably that order as of now, maybe flip Kim/Wang around)).

Well, my reply would go something like this - Outside of the truly elite arms in the minors, a lot of guys get hit the 3rd time through and still develop into starters. The keyword would be develop. Struck's 21, and only a full-time pitcher for 3 years. He's athletic, the secondary stuff is improving. He has a good sinker, but the secondary stuff, while showing potential, still needs work. It's certainly possible that he ends up in the pen, but if the change-up becomes more consistent and either the change-up or curveball improve a bit more (as a side note, I know some reports have tagged him with a slider, which makes sense for our system, but I've had others still say curve), he certainly would have the stuff to stay as a starter. After all, takes kids some time to learn a pitch like the change when they don't use it much. He's certainly young enough that it's hard to think that his pitches can't develop anymore. Certainly, there have been guys who have failed to develop their pitches (Jay Jackson comes to mind), so again, not discounting the possibility of the pen, but considering his age, athleticism, and improvement, I'm willing to buy on Struck. Physically, I haven't heard any real concerns about his ability to work late into games, so for now, I think it's an issue of pitch development.

I'm probably much higher on Struck than most. I think he has the potential to be a mid-rotation starter. If we wanted to use numbers to designate his ceiling, I think his ceiling might be number 2 starter potential (just to be clear, I think that's a possible ceiling for him). Only 21, but more importantly, only became a full-time pitcher after joining us. He was an expensive overslot (Raisin has the number, I don't recall right now, 135K? or 125?, more than McNutt). Athletic kid, hearing that he's hitting mid-90's more this season. That said, he goes to his 2-seamer/sinker quite a bit (better pitch than reaching back and ripping with the high heat), so his average fastball velo is typically more low 90's. Solid control. Has to improve the secondary pitches, but have heard a couple times this year that the pitches, which were inconsistent last year, look sharper this year and are at least average pitches with the chance to be better (and the curve is probably above average).

Going by this season alone, Flahertys one of our top 3-5 prospects, and thats not really a good thing. that's why people don't evaluate prospects like that. Yes, I know, which is why Brian LaHair isn't our top prospect. As for Flaherty, is it safe to say his ceiling is Mark DeRosa and his floor is Aaron Miles? Gotta say, I'm not really seeing the floor side of the equation. As for his ceiling, I think his ceiling might be a bit higher than DeRosa's. Not real sold that Flaherty is definitely in our top 5. Despite their injuries/inconsistencies, Brett Jackson and Trey McNutt are definitely ahead, and so is Matt Szczur. You could probably fit Flaherty into the 4/5 slots, but you could also make a case for say, Vitters, and maybe even LeMahieu (depending on how much you buy the power development, and assuming he maintains rookie eligibility by season's end). All that said, is Flaherty in the 4/5 slot that embarrassing? At the start of the year, sure. Right now, though, he looks to have legit corner power to go with a solid approach. This feels like your upper level, close to ready, good, but not great, Sickels B level prospect. This isn't to say the system is in great shape, as, on paper, pre-key draft signees, this looks like a system a notch below where we were post-Garza trade, but I'm not terribly troubled that Flaherty could be in our top 6. If there's concerns, it's that our top 2 prospects entering the year (Jackson and McNutt) both haven't really improved their standing, and that the 2nd tier, Flaherty level talent, thins out far too fast so that we get into the 3rd tier, high upside, far away talent far too early.

I think everyone's concerned. I don't think anyone has any illusions that he'll ever be a low (relatively) K guy, but I had hoped that he could work that rate down to around the low-mid 20's. He's looking more Drew Stubbs-ian than I had hoped.

I think the Rays will take their time with Lee. With Tim Beckham having completely turned his once floundering status around and, by most accounts, playing a good shortstop in AA, they have no need to push Lee up and can let him develop slowly.

I guess I hadn't thought through the second half of the list nearly as much as the top 10. But I'll probably have 8 of my top 10 as hitters at this point, so I guess I made a leap to say 66% of the top 20. I don't have the names for you, though. I just hate putting relief only prospects in my top 20 unless they are phenomenal. Do we really have that many good SP prospects to fill out the top 20? As of now, I think a couple of the Boise kids would slide into my top 20 due to upside (and I'm bullish enough on Ben Wells that I would probably slide him much higher than most - I'm still thinking he'll slot into the back of my top 10). I'll probably keep Whitenack in the 11-20 range on account of the increased velo and great work. I haven't really pondered it all that deeply the last few weeks or so. As a side note, if Logan Watkins bat has really turned around ... that said, I've still got a tough time buying top 20 on him, but let's see how it plays out.

In case anyones wondering, Jackson went back to being bad as hes given up 5 ER on 9 hits through 3. Something is clearly wrong. A guy doesn't go from very good to on the verge of release unless something is very wrong. I was as big a fan as Jay as anyone out there, but it's possible that the main issue is that he simply never adjusted and developed, and his flaws were always issues that could get him potentially exposed in PCL ball. I haven't heard anything suggesting that the velocity is lower than before. If someone has, let me know, but last I heard, he was still running it in the low 90's, which is pretty much where he's sat most of his career in our system. But while his arm action was fairly clean, his body action was always in need of work, as he was more of a thrower who didn't get his body into it. His slider flashed potential in the lower levels, but it seems to have stalled out.

You didn't read my post. I included the draftees. That gets me to 11 (Baez and Vogelbach to go with Vitters, Jackson, LeMahieu, Castillo, Ha, Bour, Flaherty, Golden, Szczur), and that's only if we assume that there will be no graduations, and if we're going to factor in draftees, we also have to factor in potential graduations, particularly since it seems so likely to happen this year. Certainly, 11 would be 55%, close enough to 2/3rd, but if LeMahieu/Castillo graduate from rookie eligibility (and I strongly suspect 1, if not both, will), that could push my list to 9 (45%), depending on how the rest of the season goes. I guess my point was that, no matter what, I see the top 20 of the system as around 50/50 on pitchers, so I was curious who you had in there. I've got a hard time buying another draftee besides the top 2 from making it, but maybe you like one of them enough. Or are you putting in guys from that 2nd crop of guys (the 2nd paragraph of my post), or are you putting in someone else?

Chen's frame is a bit limited. Granted, frame projection isn't an exact science. The problem, for me, in projecting additional muscle, is how that impacts his athletic ability/speed. Considering his position options (MI/CF), unless the power develops dramatically, his athleticism is critical (particularly since he's more CF than MI now). He isn't viewed as a plus-speed guy, like Na. I believe his 60 time is average (50), and his home to first time is above average (60), maybe borderline plus. That puts him at the slightly above average category. He's already put on about 10-20 pounds from his HS days (although the counter to that would be that if you buy the 6'1", then he's grown 2 inches from his HS days, so that 10-20 pounds or so isn't that significant). Anyhow, I hope Chen succeeds (I'm biased for Chen). I kept hoping Che-Hsuan Lin would develop some pop, though, and that never materialized, and Lin's a better all-around talent than Chen. Chen does have a tiny bit more loft to his swing.

2/3rd? Right now, my top 20 hitters are Castillo, Jackson, Flaherty, Vitters, Bour, Ha, Szczur, Golden, LeMahieu. It's possible that Castillo/LeMahieu won't be eligible by season's end (I guess it comes down to if you are doing a list that takes service days into consideration, b/c at last check, Castillo was around 20 or so service days away and LeMahieu was about 23 days away. If we take the last draft into consideration, I'd pop in Baez and Vogelbach, assuming they sign, but that puts us at 11, and I really think that one of DJ or Welington will end up losing rookie status, if not before the trade deadline, then in August. This isn't meant to pump up our pitching situation, either, as it's really thin up top, but I'm hard pressed, as of now, to come up with more than 12 hitters to buy in a top 20. Lake isn't consistent enough offensively, Gonzalez is a minor league super-util guy (which isn't a bad thing, but what position do you project him to to justify top 20), Spencer doesn't have enough upside unless the bat takes a gigantic step forward, I'm not sold on Flores' SSS in AA as anything more than a fluke as of now, Gibbs/Clevenger both don't seem to have the upside (Clevenger might be a close call for me if I sat around and pondered it, steady defensively and above average offense for position), Cerda doesn't have enough power for me to go top 20, and Watkins has to show consistency for me to buy that this stretch is a sign of things to come. I end up with some pen arms in our top 20, which I don't really like doing, but I'm hard pressed to justify one of those above guys as top 20, and who else is there?

There is some loft to his swing, to the best of my recollection (keyword, some), but I somewhat think 10 HR type power is probably a bit optimistic for him. A tiny problem for Chen is that, in the OF, his bat best profiles in CF, and yet, Na is a similar (smaller) player, who is faster and a better defensive player. If Chen's power doesn't develop, it's hard to place him ahead of Na. I would like to see them dabble him some at 2nd again, but we'll have to see how that plays out. I know AzPhil's reporting said he looked uncomfortable there.

I wonder if Reed hasn't been very good. It's seemed he got some buzz last year from Az Phil, and he had a couple of eye-catching games which led to good small-sample numbers. But from Phil's game reports this spring, he's seemed to have pitched poorly in most of the box scores that I've seen. I wonder if he isn't a guy who came in with a good arm and some good stuff but inconsistent wild, and he's been more inconsistent wild than improved this spring. We'll see. Hopefully his stuff is good and his control gets better. I think there was positive pub on Reed from one of the pubs as well. I'm still under the impression, although I don't recall AzPhil noting it this spring, that his mechanics are more a work in progress. That said, kid is projectable, so here's hoping.