toonsterwu

Depending on his haircut/beard that day, I could see the French Maid as Scott Maine ... sort of.

Don't know about that. I thought that way for awhile to, that he looked to have at least a tick above average range at 2nd, but the general opinion seems to suggest average or a tick below.

I didn't want to dig this up, but thought it was better to put it here than elsewhere. Anyhow, AzPhil is adamant that Marco Hernandez does not have a plus arm.

You think he's just too tall? Who's the biggest defensively solid 2B you can think of? Sandberg? DeRosa? it's more that he's viewed as not having elite reactions/range at 2nd. LeMahieu at 2nd is a ... Theriot at shortstop type in that, he gets to the balls he can. Now, if LeMahieu's power developed a bit more (and the hit tool stayed the same), you could live with average, maybe a tick below average defense there.

Well, I would argue that Marco being in pro ball this year meant that there were a lot of eyeballs on him, and thus, the reports on him probably have as much validity as Lindor's. Even if we simply take the writeup from the BA AZL top 20 list, we're talking about a potential plus shortstop (albeit with some accuracy concerns, but a lot of young shortstops in the low levels have accuracy issues) with range, instincts, and arm, with what they noted as plus speed, with good bat speed, hit tool, and some power projection. I believe both guys have had 15 HR power potential attached to them. If you take the MiLB scouting report on Lindor from pre-draft ... it's almost the exact same thing, except it notes that Lindor has solid speed. This isn't a knock on Lindor. I'm just wondering if draft pick bias is at play here, in some fashion. I guess there are small arguments here and there - I mean, someone suggested that Lindor has elite bat speed, which I'm not certain of based on the clips I've seen, but okay. Physically, Marco has a bit more room for projection. For the most part, though, it's similar. ______ So I took this discussion over to Sickels and was chatting with someone about it. He said something that made me pause for a moment. I'm too lazy to cut and paste, but what have we heard about Hernandez? Average to plus hit tool (I believe, in different words, that this has been noted in several places) - so, that's a 50-60. Average power projection (I believe someone said 15 HR power potential once, but I can't find it right now) - another 50. Plus arm (BA's AZL write-up) - so ... 60? Plus speed (BA's AZL write-up) - so ... 60? I've sort of extrapolated potential plus defense from the comments about Hernandez (good range, plus arm, plus speed, accuracy issues) - so ... 60? Good approach and solid strike zone judgment (as of now). Haven't heard anything to suggest physical maturation would severely dent these tools in his prime. When he laid it out like that, with rough scouting grades, it made me pause for a moment. That's a potentially damn good shortstop prospect, if these reports are right and he polishes up his game, while continuing to develop. That's ... potentially better than Hak-ju Lee, better than Starlin Castro (due to defense). __________ In saying that, I'm usually wary of prep and low level scouting reports, particularly since so much can physically change, so I'm not holding my breath and expecting the next great shortstop. But it has me thinking more and more that, if we're going to give players like Baez/Lindor the benefit of the doubt and judge them on their potential per the scouting reports out there on them, Marco probably deserves to be ranked as high, if not higher. That's a damn high ceiling. __________ Hmm ... am I thinking about a different player as it pertains to power projection? Was trying to find reports on Marco's power projection, but can't find much right now to suggest average power potential. Seems to suggest more a tick below average as his potential.

On McNutt's fastball - I think his 2-seamer is viewed as solid, but not great. It doesn't have the nasty drop of, say, an Archer, but it has enough, perhaps above average movement. His 4-seamer has a lot of life to it at times, though. That said, unless the breaking balls are consistent, he won't get that far.

I think McNutt was a bit ... over-hyped (and perhaps a bit over-rated last year), but this year, I somewhat feel like he's being a touch ... over-looked perhaps (I think where he is being ranked is probably appropriate, so I don't think he's being under-rated). The potential is still there, and at times, he still flashed a plus breaking ball and the changeup supposedly improved. His control is fine (I mean, he only had a bad stretch post-rib injury in June/July where his control ran into some issues). The blister problems, combined with missing time, probably hampered his ability to be consistent with the breaking pitches. I see some of the arms being hyped up this offseason, like a Jarrod Cosart, and I just don't see a huge difference b/w a guy like that and McNutt (hence why I think McNutt is being overlooked). Cosart's breaking ball is quite inconsistent.

sorry for the double post.

The more I ponder things ... the more I wonder if I am being unfair to Marco and Jeimer. For example, what exactly is the justification for having Javier Baez significantly higher than Candelario? I mean, most of us have Baez top 5, if not top 3, while Candelario is borderline top 10 for one guy (just skimmed through the pages). I mean, sure, Baez is a more known prospect, due to coming up in America, but the scouting reports we have heard on Candelario, plus BA lauding him as one of the top guys in DSL, is something to keep in mind. I started pondering Marco Hernandez vs. Francisco Lindor, and the more I thought about it, the more I kept wondering, why isn't Marco on the same level as Lindor, who many have on the same level as Baez, if not higher? The scouting reports are arguably equal (if not, a slight edge for Marco). I'm curious how people are thinking about it right now.

I have to say ... I had a really good laugh. I don't care for TLR, but that was sort of ... funny ... in a way.

yes. He's been no where near the same talent since he returned. The power is gone.

I feel like I, at times, give draft picks benefit of the doubt that for some reason, I might not give to some young guys in the system already. I'm specifically thinking of Marco Hernandez here and how he compares to say, Francisco Lindor. Lindor is one year younger, but then again, he's 1 year behind Hernandez as of now. I just don't see an exceptional difference between the two. Initially, I had Lindor, in my mind, a notch ahead, but the more I think about it, the more I think the two should be fairly close. Curious what people think.

I hope he's better than Reed in Boise this year, otherwise I'm going to be fairly disappointed. I just meant a comparison in terms of the ups and downs that Reed went through his first two years.

I'm curious what people's expectations on Maples are for next year. I'm expecting something akin to Austin Reed's first two years - flashes that get people really excited, and then some wild inconsistencies that trouble folks.

Beer, the instructs thread posted the free roster provided by AzPhil, with the only addition I can think of being Trey Martin.

I thought Ha and Rhee had a slim shot at the back end of the top 20 for FSL, but to be fair, it was a really deep league this year. In Ha's case, his bat did tail off tremendously, and plus defense, tools, and age can only take you so far. A lot of non-Cubs fans still talk about Rhee not pitching to his talent. I'm not sure they realize that he posted a 9.4 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9 (roughly, don't have the numbers in front of me) over the last 2 months, while getting (off the top) somewhere around 47-48% ground balls. One poster over at Sickels said he was "almost certainly" a reliever, which I flatly don't get. Rhee might end up a pen arm, but his stuff was more than back this year, he had a good run in the 2nd half while working mostly 6 innings or more. Sure, the slider (slurve) has to improve, but I get the feeling that a lot of people look at fangraphs overall numbers and make a decision off of that (hey, I'm guilty of that at times as well).

Still think Kurcz is the best pen prospect in the system and has closer potential, but no real need to revisit that discussion again. I'm still a bit befuddled at Shonerd's comments in all honesty. Was checking around with some folks that saw D-Cubs games a lot more than me this year, and not many people seemed to think his changeup was as consistently decent as Shonerd made it sound. Put it this way, if Kurcz's changeup is as consistently decent as Shonerd makes it sound, then the Cubs should be keeping him in the rotation. That said, I don't doubt for a moment that Shonerd got a report like that. I just wonder what were the dynamics behind the report (was it a one game report, who was it from, was it on a day when he simply wasn't feeling his breaking pitch). Dunno, one of the more mysterious things I've read about a Cubs prospect so far this offseason.

I'll be curious what others say about Kurcz. The slider was showing real well this year and was his out-pitch. It almost sounds like Shonerd was going off of reports earlier in the year, talking about his velocity not holding (which obviously doesn't matter in the pen, where his velo hit was able to hit mid-90's) and the change-up. I'll have to check, but once he went to the pen, he was, to the best of my understanding and knowledge, fastball breaking ball, with the change only occasionally coming out.

This, though, was a league list. Sure, Flores' 1 year advantage is a factor when comparing the two, and Lake was in his 2nd go-around of A+. This, though, was Flores 2nd go-around in A+ as well. The reports on Flores physically aren't positive, and Lake is more athletic. It's not as if I thought Lake should be on the top 20. It's more that I'm surprised Flores is.

Well, the reason I was surprised because off the top, in the past, in league lists (not team or overall), they seemed to have dropped some guys due to inconsistent performance at a level. I think they made a comment like that for Vitters once. Add in his low walk rate at the level, and I was surprised that he ranked so high. I'm quite ambivalent on Lake, but I don't see the argument for Flores over him as of now, other than hanging onto lingering hopes of past promise. I'm not too big on Brody Colvin either, who I think is a bit over-hyped (total side note, but I do feel like BA got it right with Trevor May as the top arm that was at Clearwater this past year ... I still think Cosart is over-hyped).

A bit surprised Szczur made the list, and made the list this high. On talent, he should make it, but I had been under the impression that these lists were impact by the player's run at the level, and Szczur had his struggles in FSL. Not too stunned that only 1 D-Cub made it, but I had thought that Rhee would have an outside shot at top 20. It was a deep year in FSL, though. That said, much as I am ambivalent on Junior Lake right now, I don't see any reason why Wilmer Flores should be ahead of him. He's not significantly younger than someone like Lake (I think 1 year difference), and Flores struggled while also having most people downgrade his potential upside.

I have nothing against McGehee. It was always the Cubs fans that went on and about him that annoyed me. I wish him success, but the Cubs decision not to keep him on the 40 that year was justified. Furcal brings up another sour note in recent Cubs history for me. I still wonder what would've happened if we had landed Furcal and not gone after Pierre. Could've really changed the dynamic, but that's a big game of what if that isn't worth going down. That said, the one thing that likely wouldn't have happened was that disastrous Juan Pierre deal.

You forget, when Fuson left, he was quite peeved about the dynamic. Maybe Beane wasn't peeved, but Fuson definitely was, and he made it known in some interviews. I'm pretty sure you can google that and find comments still about it (could be wrong, although I thought I saw them when I was googling up random stuff about the movie). Edit: Don't have much time to google things up right now, but here's a read where Fuson was clearly unhappy with Beane from back in the day. http://articles.sfgate.com/2003-05-14/sports/17491262_1_sports-illustrated-book-grady-fuson Okay, here's a quote from Beane that notes that things had to calm down. Sounds like Fuson had a blow-up, they might've had issues for a little bit, but then things settled down fast. http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-02-21/sports/17954037_1_book-scouting-san-diego/2 All that said, yes, Moneyball, a book I was never really too keen on (read it once, never read it again) and a book that I think failed to articulate what Beane and Co. were really trying to do (at least, clear enough to the mass public ... it eventually became OBP, OBP, OBP in public, when it was really as much a philosophy about finding value), over-stated the dynamic between scouts and "sabrmetricians". Beane was an advance scout, IIRC, and his issues with scouts had more to do with his temper than any specific action/belief, from what I recall.

It's also important to note that those early A's teams that were so strong had a core built from Grady Fuson's last drafts, before Beane started making bigger imprints on how he runs his organization. That said, Beane's a big enough man to admit his mistakes and brought back Fuson, so there is that going for him.

If we can land Ian Stewart for Dolis/Gaub/3rd player (which I'm assuming is a lesser prospect), I'd do that in a heartbeat. It's possible they'd look for pen arms in a swap (since they'll likely try to move Street), but I still think that might be a bit on the low side for what they'd want, as much as Ian has fallen out. Since I've been driving all day and feel like tossing around names for the heck of it, I wonder what it would cost to get someone like Chase Headley (I see King Kong noted him). Before people tell me how unlikely that is ... I agree that it probably is quite unlikely. That said, I'm just tossing around names for fun. They have Forsythe/Darnell as ready guys that can step in at 3rd (Darnell's the more intriguing of the two), with Jedd Gyorko and Edinson Rincon not far behind (Rincon's probably the most talented of the foursome). Headley's 28, so he's not likely to be a part of their next core anymore, and he's going to be more expensive next year (3-4 mil range likely, never great with arb guesses). That said, he actually hit fairly well away from Petco this year (not great, but solid) and has hit better away from Petco most of his career, with solid, albeit not great, pop. In all likelihood, what they'd want for Headley would probably be more than I think would be appropriate to to give up. ________ I see King Kong noted Will Middlebrooks. I wouldn't be so quick to rule him out of Boston's long range situation, with Youkilis being a big question mark in regards to manning third long run.