toonsterwu

With the defensive strides he's made in the last two years, it's hard to fault any organization for sticking with a talent like Lake as a positional asset for as long as possible. He's still shaky defensively, but there's definitely a greater chance that he can stick at short than a couple seasons ago.

Vitters hater. :) I can't wait to see the organization work with Josh on his approach at the plate. "The Cubs Way" stands to benefit him as much or more than anyone else in the system. If a better approach can be taught, Vitters and Lake could be in for huge jumps over the next couple years. I guess we'll have to see if it is possible. I don't hate Vitters, but where does he fit right now? He's not going to first? LF? RF? If he does, his bat is going to have to really step forward. It's possible, but it's hard to write in Vitters as a key productive player for the near future, for me. I'm not so sure that Vitters isn't going to be sent packing this offseason, tbh. It really wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs are pushing Vitters as Theo's compensation, but that's just a guess.

I think you're understating the talent on the roster. I know you're trying to take an unbiased, outsider perspective, but I'm not sure that's really how the team is perceived. I also think Aramis gets extended at least through his option year before the FA period starts. That gives: SS: Castro is a rising star 3B: One of the best hitting 3B in the game C: Even in his down years he's above average for a C CF: Almost the definition of an average hitter LF: For all his flaws, he was still an above average hitter at the plate There's a reason we were around average in run production despite pathetic production from RF and below average production from 2B and 1B. Upgrade 1B with one of the studs and the offense will be well above average. All you have to sell is that the rotation will get a significant upgrade and I think you can sell these guys on a plan. Plus, they know they're signing for more than just 2012. Ricketts, Theo & Hoyer can obviously sell them on a long-term plan where the Cubs will likely have the highest NL payroll over the FA's tenure with the team, combined with the talent and vision on the front office to build around the star. This is not like trying to convince someone to play in Baltimore. Tim, keep in mind my phrasing in that. I said, when the offseason starts. If they resign Aramis, that's a different equation from where we are entering the offseason. But ... the way I'm looking at the team right now isn't all that different from you - 1 good offensive player (Castro), one above average offensive player (Soto). You know I like Brett Jackson and I think Brett Jackson will be fine (still think his absolute ceiling, something few guys reach, is under-sold, but he hasn't done enough to challenge that notion), but I think it's hard to be certain that he'll definitely be average or better in his rookie year. I think a case can be made that Soriano was an average hitter in 2011 (but weren't his wOBA below average?), but it's going to be another year, and it's hard to imagine him stopping the decline. At best, he stalls it. The positive aspect is, as someone noted, that the market for Fielder/Pujols may not be as large as it seems. Now, as noted, if the resign Aramis, it's a different equation. I wonder how heavily Theo will push to resign Aramis, though, and I wonder how much of a discount Aramis is willing to take. Aramis just doesn't seem like the type of guy that Theo would give a long term deal to at a high rate, but then again, this is a different situation than he ever had in Boston, and a ugly looking 3rd base market, so maybe he changes his approach. That said, if he doesn't, would Aramis give a significant discount? Perhaps, don't know. If they resign Aramis, then things look a bit different, giving us two good offensive players, and the picture looks a bit better. My secondary point, as much as anything, was this - there's a lot of focus on signing these first basemen (and probably most of the big ticket items), but in all likelihood, the first basemen signings will come relatively late, and we'll likely have enough movement beforehand. Those moves might play a factor in influencing the decisions of the top guys. * I guess it should be added that, skimming over Aramis' contract on Cots right now, it's possible that they exercise the option and he simply sticks around. I doubt it, as I imagine he would want a long term deal.

I actually viewed it as more incentive to try and lure Pujols back. More, hey, look, we didn't deal him midseason, and we're bringing him back, so we have another run in us. Their payroll was at 110 mil this past year, roughly. Cots has them on the hook for roughly 75 mil. I'm not going to go through and do the calculations, so if that's off, then oops. Assuming that DeWitt and Co. decide that they can keep it at 110-115, that's 35-40 mil to play with. Assuming that Pujols gets a backloaded deal of some type, they could fit him in and still have around 10-15 mil to play with (let's assume that he gets some sort of 28-30 mil AAV, for 2012, it could be closer to 25 mil). Not enough to address enough holes and account for possible raises through arbitration, but they do have a strong system and there are a couple places where some fat could probably be cut. In a weak pitching market, it's not impossible to envision a market developing for veterans like Lohse/Westbrook. They have Wainwright coming back. Removing one of them, if possible, could save them either 8.5 mil (westbrook) or 12 mil ish (Lohse). Even if we assume they have to eat a tiny bit of money, that's still significant savings. Rhodes option didn't vest, Theriot could be non-tendered. Their bullpen is fairly young. If they wanted to, Schumaker and McClellan could both be non-tendered. Descalso could probably take over at 2nd base, and Freese/Craig have shown enough to imagine they'll get continued playing time. I imagine Furcal's option will be declined. That leaves relatively big holes at ... shortstop and ... well, that's about it, and they'd still have money to play with. Obviously, depth is of some concern, but there are a couple upper level pieces that could probably fill some roles. I think the Cardinals could easily keep Pujols and still have a strong squad next year if they wanted. Add in this surprising World Series run and push to a Game 7, and I'll be surprised if Pujols is in another uniform.

Carlos Quentin is one of the worst defensive players in the MLB IIRC. Plus there's some injury worry. Well, I'm only skimming UZR right now, but he was passable in RF in 2011. He was absolutely horrific, in terms of UZR, in 2010. I imagine he's probably below average overall, but I don't know if he's as bad as he was in 2010. Maybe he is. That said, we also don't know what internal measures theo and Co. may have developed on run prevention, and UZR is a notoriously shaky stat to look at anyways.

I don't want him to be the future closer, but for that to happen, I think he probably needs to be in the minors as a starter in 2012 (and even then, his innings would have to be controlled a fair bit). I'm not sold that the Cubs will do that. If they do, I'll be happy. But ... if Cashner is in the pen in 2012 in the bigs, that's going to make it quite tough for him to throw effective starter innings in 2013. Not impossible, as you could send him to winter ball, and really control his innings early in 2013 to build things up, but that leaves aside developmental questions on his changeup, a pitch he probably wouldn't use as much out of the pen. But, unlike a year or two ago, the chances of Cashner ending up long term in the pen have to be acknowledged as higher than before.

The Cubs could deal with a fair amount. That's how trades for good players should work. While he's probably still part of the Baltimore core, their future is still years away and he could bring some nice pieces. I see him as a Pence/Garza type who can play with the big boys but isn't quite top tier right now, and he's got a couple of cost controlled years left. He'd cost a pretty penny, but if they bring in the elite bat before him he'll be worth it. Hell, they should do it anyway. Smoak probably isn't going anywhere, but oh man what a coup that would be... Problem is, we really don't have a fair amount to send right now. Assuming you rule out Brett Jackson, since most of us are penciling him into the lineup, the upper levels simply don't have that many pieces that would entice in a trade. Knowing the sentiment there and the speculation, it'd take a gigantic return, and I'm not absolutely sold that Trey McNutt/Matt Szczur/and one would be enough. They want some upper level arms in case their current crop largely falters, but we are largely lacking in that regards. That said, just speculation based on the rumors in the Baltimore area. Since they don't have a GM as of now, a lot could change.

One name that is thought to be available, but hasn't been discussed here before is Carlos Quentin. Third base is what it is - it's a bad market. That said, we probably need another power bat in the lineup, and the White Sox will reportedly listen on Quentin. He's not great in RF, but you could do worse. He'd be in his age 29/30 season in 2012, in his prime. Problem is, I'm just not sure we match-up all that well, assuming Kenny wants, as he said, young MLB-ready talent. That said, in getting front office pieces from Boston and San Diego, we could conceivably work a three-way, so it's not out of the question in regards to going after Quentin.

Markakis is probably unavailable, but if he was, Baltimore would likely want a fair amount. He's still generally viewed as a core guy in Baltimore, is signed through 2014 with an option in 2015, and the concerns on his power were somewhat quieted after his solid 2nd half. He might never be as good as once-hoped, particularly after that 2008 6+ WAR season, but he's only going to be in his age 28 season next year. I have a hard time seeing Zduriencik move Smoak unless it's for a gigantic return.

Ding. That's the point I'm getting at, and the original post was also asking what series of moves can be done to enhance the team before the 1st basemen are likely to make a decision. It doesn't mean a ton of moves this year, but assuming the high end talent wants to go to a positive situation (which could be wrong, as I noted, I tend to wonder if CJ Wilson chases after the money), then they will have to make some moves to enhance this club beforehand and sell one of the first basemen on the moves this year and the potential for moves next year. Maybe that involves resigning Aramis and bringing back Ryan (that would certainly be a selling point, another middle of the order bat and a solid veteran starter), and a trade. Thing is, at some of the positions of concern for the Cubs, there are few FA targets that really seem to fit. Furthermore, the Cubs likely only have enough chips to swing one big deal this offseason (unless they offer a "numbers" package of high upside pieces), and that depends somewhat on what assets are given up in the Epstein and Hoyer/McLeod discussions. I keep on wanting to try to work ways to get Chase Headley here in my head, but it seems quite unrealistic that they will give up their best offensive player (as it currently stands, Rizzo could be better down the line), a guy who adjusted his swing for the park and gets on base, without a gigantic package. Even then, that might not be enough - Darnell might move to corner OF and Rincon is horrid at 3rd. Gyorko might be more a utility guy. As for the other points above - I think Szczur could be ready by 2013, but ready to be key help? 2014 seems more likely to me as when he could take a full-time job, but it probably won't be 2015 until he's a solid, key contributor. That is assuming he adjusts and develops. I like Brett, have defended him a ton and argued that he's a bit under-appreciated, but even I don't think he's going to be key help as soon as next year. You know I like Flaherty a lot more than LeMahieu, despite seeing positive signs when I saw DJ earlier this year, but both of them likely have to move to a corner role, and neither of them are locks to be regular players (still think Flaherty, if he settles in at 3rd, might be a .260-.270/.350/.450 type perhaps). Utility players are useful, but utility players can also be found with relative ease. Watkins might be somewhat under-appreciated, but that's because he had such an uneven season. If he shows that his surge was legit, then he becomes arguably our top 2nd base prospect in the upper levels.

I have a hard time hoping for much from Jay Jackson as a starter unless he finds a better breaking ball. Right now, it's hard to see him as a late inning arm in the pen either.

Is it a gamble? No doubt about it, but I believe that Kelly Johnson has been at the extremes the last two years - an awfully hitter friendly park propped up his 2010 statistics, and a fair amount of bad luck to bring down his 2011 numbers. Now, performance year to year fluctuates, but on the whole, I think, assuming he doesn't have the bad luck he had in 2011, that he's likely to be a solid upgrade on Barney. I don't expect him to have the .346 BABIP he had in Toronto, but I do expect that he'll show more power than he did in Toronto, where they were working on getting him back in rhythm. Put it loosely, I think he's likely an above average offensive and defensive 2nd baseman. That's a fairly solid upgrade. Hey, for all I know, he might have the same amount of bad luck in 2012 that he had with Arizona in 2011, but if not, I think he's roughly a 3 WAR 2nd baseman. If the price is right, it's well worth it. It comes down to what the price is. that said, he's likely to have a fair amount of suitors.

KKG - the question isn't whether or not Fielder or Pujols fits the Cubs, the question I bring up is whether or not the Cubs fit them, which none of us can answer but is something that is left out of the discussion in the excitement on adding them. If we're honest about how we assess the Cubs (and keep in mind, I tend to think one of them will probably end up with the Cubs, but I expect Theo and Co. to be very active early on to make the team more attractive), the team has 1 good offensive player right now, 1 above average offensive player, 1 minor league positional asset that is viewed as likely to provide key help in the next 3 years, a bunch of positional question marks, 1 good SP, 1 4/5 starter, and a solid pen. The system, a system I like, is a weak, bottom-third system relative to the fact that most of the prime talent is far away. I think it's a fair question to ask, prior to the off-season, if this is the type of club that a big time FA wants to go to. I think they need to be very active early on, to shore up some positions, to try and convince one of them (likely Fielder because I still think Pujols stays in St. Louis) to come.

Re: Kelly Johnson - The problem, as it relates to constructing a 2012/2013 lineup, is that, right now, Brett Jackson is penciled in by most as a top of the order option. It's quite likely he'll go through struggles his first year. The backup plan becomes ... Darwin Barney? Johnson seems exactly the type of guy Theo would go after - a in-his prime up-the-middle guy who is solid defensively and has a disciplined approach at the plate (perhaps too disciplined, but that's a separate issue). Kelly Johnson is a solid fielder who has a good approach offensively and offers some pop. He hit well down the stretch last year, showing enough positive signs. Of course, the price has to be right, but he's in his prime and if the price is fine, it seems like a decent gamble in this market, offering someone that could hit at the top of the order if necessary. Reality is, the Cubs don't have many great 2nd base options in the upper levels. Barney's offense is less than ideal. You can live with it because you have an above average offensive shortstop, but you hope for better. LeMahieu/Flaherty aren't viewed as guys that can handle it on a regular basis. Unless Barney steps it up, it would seem like that a short term 2nd baseman would have to be found, in the same way that Mark DeRosa was added several years back.

I'll take some stabs on what I think will happen - Albert Pujols - Cardinals. I think the Cardinals pony up in the end, particularly coming off this surprise run to the World Series. I don't know how they make it happen, but it's hard for me to think he'll be in another uniform. Prince Fielder - Cubs. I think this ends up being a 7 year deal. Despite public reports suggesting otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised if the Blue Jays are in it. Contract guess - 7/168. I think the biggest concern may come from an AL club if they are willing to get aggressive and give more years, thinking that Fielder could move to DH down the line. CC Sabathia - Yankees. I don't see him leaving now that he knows he actually enjoys New York. CJ Wilson - Nationals. My guess is that Washington will come in and over-bid on him. They still need a top of the order guy, but I don't see them pursuing Reyes when Desmond/Espinosa/Rendon are all in the mix for middle infield (of course, Zimmerman could shift to 1st with Rendon at 3rd, so there is that possibility). Aramis Ramirez - Angels. Arte Moreno just fired Tony Reagins. They want to win now, and they need offense. Will Theo over-bid, knowing Aramis is at the end of his prime? I have my doubts. Yu Darvish - Blue Jays. They've got money to spend and want to be aggressive. I actually want to write the Cubs in here ... but it's hard for me to see Anthoupoulos missing out on landing a top target this offseason. Ryan Dempster - Cubs. I think he rejects the player option, and signs a 2/23ish deal with us, along with a 3rd year option to push it to possibly 3/33. - Of course, with the top arms off the market, that begs the question of what the Rangers do. I don't think they go after Edwin Jackson. They could look internally, shifting Feliz to the rotation, or they could go into the trade market. I'll add some later. Not sure where I think Reyes lands as of now. I also think the Rangers are going to be aggressive, but for who? Granted, with their system, they could be more aggressive in the trade market.

Perhaps moving him to closer and trading Marmol might be an option. Also, I still like the idea of trading for John Danks. He's third year arb-eligible, and I don't think it would take much to get him. I Have a feeling the Sox will retain Buerhle, and that might motivate them to clear some payroll. I'm leaning towards Cashner as the future closer as well. The dynamics of the current situation makes it seem unlikely that they'll send him to AAA to work as a minor league starter. It's possible, and I actually prefer that, but I doubt it. If he's in the big league bullpen, he'll go fastball/breaking ball. While most pitchers tend to use mainly two pitches in-game, he still needs development on the consistency of the change. Can that happen in one off-season, ALONG with getting him primed enough to make enough meaningful starts in 2013? It's possible ... but with Marmol not likely to be here long term, there is the option of shifting him there. The 2012 bullpen could be real good if Cashner is in the pen. We finally have the power arms back there - Samardzija/Cashner in middle relief, Cashner/Wood (along with Marshall) setting up, and Marmol and Co. closing. James Russell is still nasty against lefties, and there are more than enough options to call-up. As for Danks, it comes down to how much it would take to pry him away. I don't know if the system is in a position to make such a move right now, pre-season, though, assuming Brett Jackson is penciled in as the starting CF.

It really is. The Cubs have contended in the not too distant past. The Cubs are clearly heading in the right direction, and they have money to spend. People will go to the money unless the situation is a disaster and the Cubs aren't a disaster. Even if we assume all that to be true (and again, I think we are over-stating how we look relative to what others feel about us - as noted earlier in one of these threads, sure, I could see a combination of moves this off-season to make us a good squad, on paper, but viewing things externally, entering the off-season, the Cubs have 1 good starter, 1 good offensive player, 1 good asset to help positionally, and question marks as to whether or not there is legitimate rotation help on the horizon (and I'm still more bullish on McNutt than most, but there are legitimate questions there), along with a system that I really like, but legitimately, is fairly weak as so many of the top pieces are so far away)), it presumes that the Cubs money will somehow trump other organizations. It's possible - Chicago looks as nice a destination as there is out there. Some folks will shy away from Canada, and the Marlins aren't likely capable of making multiple big moves this off-season. Anyhow, I guess I'm throwing cold water on all the excitement, so I'll stop.

I think there's very little chance that Cashner is in the big league rotation next year. He just doesn't have the arm-strength to likely carry meaningful innings next year, and there's no point to start him in the rotation and jerk him to the pen mid-season.

I think with Byrd, you don't care about the talent in return, you just look to clear as much of the contract as possible. _____ In trying to scratch out the roster, the two biggest issues that come up are at third base and RF. There simply aren't many guys that seem to fit the Epstein-mold out there in FA, and the third base market is just awful after Aramis. I mean, I think you could make the case that, assuming Aramis goes, moving Jeff Baker to 3rd (his collegiate position) is about as good a move as anything else out there, unless you really like Edwin Encarnacion (and he's no guarantee to reach free agency). I mean, I'm sort of intrigued with a Kevin Kouzmanoff gamble ... but it's really not that exciting. In RF, assuming Theo doesn't surprise and go with some old guy, there are some options. That said, mostly gambles, and there are a lot of poor defensive options. One of the more intriguing names out there might be Scott Hairston, and even then, that's a big gamble, and he's never really posted a strong OBP, although certainly the low BABIP's may be a factor there. A Hairston/Colvin RF platoon may be productive enough without costing too much, while still being strong defensively, and Hairston can backup in CF. I like Darwin Barney, but assuming Castro stays at short, I'd like to see the top of the order upgraded, and Kelly Johnson still looks like the best gamble to me. A solid defensive player who has a solid approach at the plate. Seems like a fit.

With the money the Cubs are ready to spend in the next year or two and the reputation of our front office, I can't see why anybody would not want to come here. It isn't as simple as that, though. Again, I will acknowledge that we're dealing with individuals, so you never know how one feels. And with Boras, sometimes money is enough. That said, there's a lot of teams with money to spend this offseason. Not many guys want to be the first guy to head somewhere. Miggy Tejada tried in Baltimore ... but they never got that 2nd guy to come along. It's possible it's enough, perhaps for a Fielder who has more years to look forward to and might be willing to wait. This isn't a great scenario to convince guys to come ... outside of the fact that the front office looks strong and that the Cubs might spend. That said, the Blue Jays might spend and their front office is viewed as one of the shrewdest in the game right now with an excellent minor league system. The Angels might spend. The Nationals might spend, and while Rizzo is more "old-school", he's viewed in a positive light, they have an excellent front office and an excellent system. There's a lot of teams with some flexibility with their payroll right now. At the end of the day, talent is the most important thing, and there is exactly 1 good offensive player on the roster entering the off-season, and I think it's a fair question to ask if that is enough to convince a guy to come this off-season, or if there are enough early moves to make to change the outlook.

It's hard to say. He's coming off a better season than most seem to acknowledge, in a weak FA pitching market. There isn't a velocity decrease to be concerned with. The K and BB numbers are fairly similar to last year. I could see something like 3/36 for a team that loses out on someone. As a side note, I think we're giving too much attention to picks. First off, next year's draft looks fairly pedestrian. That said, if we continue to over-slot like we did this past year, we should be able to nab some high quality talent in the later rounds. The picks are nice, but not something I'd get too worried about if they continue to over-slot like they did this past year.

One thing sort of glossed over in the conversation on the big names is will they want to come? The general player tends to want that big contract AND to go to a good situation. Now, there are exceptions (I could see CJ Wilson chase the money, as this is his one chance at a big, big deal and security), but there's a reason why a team like the Orioles hasn't been able to convince many guys to come, despite throwing money at some players. Would a Fielder or Pujols want to come to a situation that, at the start of the offseason, only has one good offensive player (Castro), and only one positional asset in the system that is expected (certainly, guys can surprise) to help in the next 2-3 years (we've seen FA's do their homework on a team's system, so I assume the agents will have prepped them on the dynamics)? Can Theo sell them on that? If not, is there a domino reaction of moves possible to enhance the team before these guys make their decision? It is generally expected that both guys situations will probably drag on for most of the off-season, so there is time to make some moves beforehand, but are there enough moves to enhance the outlook of the club enough to change the perception on the situation? A lot of the positive feelings on this board on building a core in/for the next 3-4 years is predicated on signing that one big FA this off-season, but do they want to come is a question that isn't often asked. There are more than enough teams with money to spend this off-season that money alone might not be enough. Certainly, it is possible that money may be enough for one or two of them, or perhaps they have aversions to certain places, or that Theo sells them enough to convince them to come. There is enough anecdotal evidence that the high end free agents tend to try to find situations they perceive as good. Whether or not these specific guys fall under that, none of us can really say, but I'm just looking at the broad picture. If they do follow past trends by high end free agents, then the question becomes, is there enough moves that we can make early on to change the outlook?

I tend to want Dempster back ... provided it's only through 2013. At best, I'd offer him 2 and an option, but not 3, and the AAV would have to come down from the 13 mil on the last contract (closer to 10). I think he should be fine in 2012. You never know when a guy will lose it, but there isn't any glaring signs of concern right now, other than the fact that he's worked so many innings the last few years. Add in that he's one of the few guys that's been reported as a clubhouse leader, and if he's willing to come back at the right years and price, I'm open to it. I wouldn't guarantee 3 years, and I wouldn't give him more than 11 mil on the AAV, though.

Well, if you can get Soto for 3 years at a reasonable cost, that is a fairly solid situation. I'm not opposed to going year-to-year with him, but if Soto is at a reasonable cost, then he can be a part of your short term core. A 3 year deal at a reasonable cost should allow you to shop him if it's in the club's best interest. _____________________ I think you bring Jeff Baker back because he's going to be fairly cheap ... and because he might be better than the FA options at 3rd base if you fail to land a better player in a trade. I mean, I keep on staring at Edwin Encarnacion and Kevin Kouzmanoff as the most intriguing FA 3rd baseman (don't want Betemit as anything more than a backup/platoon guy) after Aramis. David Wright might not get moved. Jed Hoyer spoke glowingly of Chase Headley, which makes me think that the Padres will build around him in the short term. Who else? Ian Stewart? Still more a thought than anything concrete about him being shopped. Just not many great options, unless you go trade for a minor leaguer. DJ LeMahieu and Ryan Flaherty both need more development before thinking they could take over at 3rd. Encarnacion might not reach FA, and I don't really love his overall package. You'd want a platoon partner to go with Baker, but in this market, he might not be a bad Plan B there.

Blue Jays and Nats arguably have more flexibility to spend this off-season than the Yankees, unless the Yankees dramatically increase payroll, and there has been no indication that that will happen. They were at 68 mil or so this year, and there's talk that they could get into the 90-100 mil range. The Lerner's are willing to spend.