toonsterwu

Wow, fascinating. I thought AzPhil was the only one that liked Castillo more than me (still have him hanging in that 14-16 slot for me). AzPhil still believes Castillo will be a starting backstop that can hit 20 HR's, I think (or something like that, recall seeing that in his comments somewhere). Oh .. .and Rhee is untouchable? Interesting, I thought I was high on Rhee, but untouchable?

Thanks, I've not looked too deeply into Japanese league pitchers coming to the states in the past so this is interesting information. The thing that really intrigues me about Chen is the youth, lack of mileage on his arm, and that he'd likely come pretty cheap. The stats I'm seeing have him at 486 innings in 4 seasons prior to 2011 and no 200 inning seasons (188 is the max) and since Daisuke's actual contract was just $8.7 million in AAV, Chen may come even more cheaply than that. He's a gamble, but one that doesn't come with much commitment and that's good if we end up making major commitments to Pujols/Prince and Wilson. Roughly speaking, if we can get him at an AAV of around, say, 3-5 mil, I've got no issue with it.

Raisin, there was a report earlier this year about how Wei-Yin was sitting high 80's this year. Granted, not the best comparison. My initial thought process was that both guys had decidedly average secondary pitches and average to fringy velo. Edit: Nvm ... it wasn't Patrick Newman, it was from mopupduty using NPB Tracker data. http://mopupduty.com/index.php/wei-ying-chen-1233/ this is the referencing data collection http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=112

To take things away from the Asian focus for a second, I do wonder if they might pursue some of the minor leaguers from their previous organizations if they need a fallback plan. I mean, someone like James Darnell isn't a superb outfield fit. Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish would seem likely to be blocked in Boston. Not suggesting this as Plan A, or B, or C, or D ... just a deep backup plan.

Wow, didn't realize he had been worked that hard. I've not been a big fan of pouring that much cash into Darvish from the start (despite his ceiling), but this really makes me concerned about it. I'll be plenty happy if we can net Wilson instead. On a side note, you may have no idea on this, but is there any kind of movement in Japan to lessen the pitch counts and innings pitched on these guys? It seems like they'd have access to some of the more advanced research that's been done state-side. to the best of my knowledge, no. Due to the differences in how they structure their clubs, and how pitchers can often go 6-7 days in between starts, there hasn't been, to the best of my knowledge, that level of concern about the high pitch counts.

Well, I think adjusting to the ball is a significant enough thing, but guys can learn and adapt, and those that can't, well they can't. I mean, there were a couple Taiwanese kids in recent years that never really took to the American ball, to the best of my knowledge. Their ability to spin their breaking balls aren't as sharp because the balls aren't as tight to grip for them, and their velocities were never as high as some of their international performances. Again, does come down to the individual, hence why earlier, I said one of the bigger issues to me wouldn't necessarily be overall size, but rather hand size. For all I know, Chen might have a big enough hand. Sure feels weird to talk about these things in such a way. Chin-Hui Tsao was an example of a guy who had no issue with the ball ... but had a lot of other issues, particularly medically. Here was a kid who was reported as able to hit mid-90's with nasty movement ... and he had mid-90's with nasty movement. Chien-Ming Wang was always an odd case to me - he had a fairly good breaking ball in international play as a kid, but it never did as well coming up the Yankees system, but he had the hand size to throw that nasty sinker and it became his go to pitch (of course, some have argued that the Yankees didn't develop his pitches well enough, as he was showing a fairly good slider this year). I'm actually somewhat in-different on Chen. For the right price, sure, but he's not a guy I'm going to be too concerned with. You can find guys like Chen. In fact, the Cubs Chen, Hung-Wen Chen, has similar stuff (but since he's a righty, the velo is decidedly fringy as a starter, whereas if Wei-Yin can pick his velo back up to what it was in the past, it'd be average for a lefty). As a total side note, and I'm no expert on this, so someone else should chime in, but I don't love Chen's arm action. He has that similar little motion that Nick Struck (and Dillon Maples has), at least from what I've seen. Not the end of the world, but some guys have had some health issues (Tommy Hanson comes to mind in regards to somewhat similar issues).

I've got no idea on the answer to that. I mean, I'm sure Cashman and his people scouted Kei Igawa enough (although it still might've been a reactionary move to missing on Daisuke). I'm sure the Red Sox scouted Matsuzaka thoroughly. I know the kids in Asia do use the American ball now and again (not in league games, but so many MLB teams have programs set up there and they bring American equipment). And just to be clear, I feel like I've over-stated the ball issue a bit, so I want to clear, I'm just speaking to transitioning in general. Ball size and differences are just one example. I mean, it isn't as if the reports on guys are way off. I mean, there were some folks that thought Matsuzka would hit mid-90's more frequently than he has throughout his Red Sox career, but there were some reports from Japan saying his 4-seamer was more low-mid 90's, and his 2-seamer was more high 80's/low 90's, which is what he has been. In Matsuzaka's case, besides the preparation issues (which depending on how one view things may be significant ... or insignificant), the quality of his stuff and his command of it were never as good as expected (I've seen someone argue before that they felt ball differences played a factor here, but others have argued workload difference, and I don't claim to know). I guess, and just to be clear, I have personal bias to hope Chen proves me wrong, but based on what we know of his scouting report from Japan, Chen is an end of the rotation guy with a mid-rotation ceiling, and that's assuming a successful transition to MLB. If not, and he falls below that, his value is markedly less. I know there was a report that his velocity was further down this year. Can't find it right now, though I assume it was an NPBtracker thing. I wonder if he might be better off as a power pen lefty, a guy who can reach back and just let the fastball go in the 93/94 range. I do agree with Raisin that, if Chen comes, I expect the Cubs to be in on him.

Wouldn't Chen be closer, though? Struck may be two years away from being a productive major leaguer, much less hitting his ceiling. Chen could be a major leaguer next season and hit his ceiling (hopefully) within a couple years. Considering Daisuke only got less than $9 million AAV, it seems we could potentially get Chen in the $5-8 range over, say, 5-6 years and potentially have a pretty good bargain. If we had the prospects ready right now, I might oppose going for Chen. But since McNutt's the closest starter and it's unlikely he'll be up sooner than mid-season next year, it would seem to make sense to shoot for a young lefty with upside who can contribute now. That assumes that Chen makes a sound transition to MLB. Let's say he loses a tick off the fastball, and he's sitting more high 80's/low 90's, a very plausible scenario. His breaking ball is fairly average. You know who that describes? Kei Igawa. Now, I tend to think Chen is better, and I don't think there are the mechanical concerns that the Yankees had with Igawa, but my point is, assuming a sound transition is still a risky bet. Struck's a hard case to say when he would be ready. He's in AAA and held his own decently enough at age 21, but his secondary stuff needs a lot of work. That said, I'm down on Jay Jackson, but Jackson, on paper, is probably similar to what Chen would offer, based off what is known about Chen right now (Jackson has a bit better velo, but both guys don't have much in the terms of consistent breaking pitches right now). Chen's a bit better than Casey Coleman, but it's hard for me to buy that he's significantly better, based off what is known right now. If Chen is more upper 80's (again, he could prove to handle the American ball just fine, so this is just hypotheticals), he's somewhat similar to Chris Rusin. At the right price, sure, I'd be interested. I just don't know how aggressive I'd be to land someone that, for the near term, may not offer significant help.

Well ... most people tend to think he won't have as many problems adjusting, but I'd be more curious about his hand size and ability to get around the ball. That said, the ball is a different texture as well. I tend to view Darvish this way - I think he probably has a great ceiling, but no one should go into his first year or two here expecting greatness.

I trust you and Raisin at this stuff more than myself, but my first impression was a 5th starter his first year or two, but with the upside of a 3 starter. At 26 he has time to develop some of the secondary pitches and adjust to the American game. Am I off base in thinking that? I think that's potentially fair ... an end of the rotation starter with potential mid-rotation ceiling depending on how he adjusts to the ball and other adjustments needed. I mean, that also, though essentially describes a lot of guys in the minors. For one, Nick Struck.

Steve Wilson has heavily scouted Wei-Yin Chen so I think the Cubs will show some interest. Back in 2009 when it seemed possible Chen might be able to come to the U.S., 18 teams scouted him and I'd imagine the Red Sox were one of them. And unlike Yu Darvish, there's no posting fee involved. I suspect he's more a 3/4 starter, unlike Danks. If you want to contend in 2012, Chen can't be your primary SP acquisition. 3/4 is a more optimistic than I think. It's debatable if he has plus velo on the fastball in America (with the different balls), and I haven't heard anyone suggest that his fastball has great movement. His breaking ball is decent, but again, ball changes makes it hard to project, and typically, it's tougher for the Asian guys to grip the American balls (obviously, depends on the individual). I know online reports have a forkball, but I don't know if that's as far developed as the reports suggest. The change-up is probably below average. Feels more like a 5th starter, a guy with good control, or a pen arm to me, at least, in his first year or two. That said, who knows.

The injury concerns with Duschscherer are pretty gigantic, though. I don't believe he was tossing the ball late in the year. If he was, it was in September. But the point was, it's possible some team thinks that the Cardinals junk at 1 year is better than other junk at multiple years. That said, it's also quite possible that they could try and move Westbrook instead, and I think that would be a guy that would definitely get some interest, despite his age and decline. I think the Lerners are pushing hard enough to win now that they'll figure out long range impact later. Financially, there could be some big problems with the heavy push now, as attendance hasn't been improving in DC, last I checked.

Well, you have two starters that have limited markets (Kuroda/Vazquez) unless they change their minds (both guys have indicated LA or Florida as their only options - Vazquez has gone as far to say that he likely would retire, I believe). Oswalt and Buehrle could also have limited markets, based on past rumors. Some teams don't have the money to go after Wilson/Darvish. Lohse is probably on par with the other guys, if not a notch below, but at one year, if you can get him at, say, 8 mil without giving up much in the way of talent, that might be more appealing than some of the other options. Don't know until ... well ... until the offseason starts, but as of now, doesn't seem that unreasonable to me. Wang may have a limited market as well in that, while his agent will push, there's a lot of expectations that off his strong showing late in the year plus the Nationals support of him, that any reasonable deal and he's back in Washington. Even if you take all of those guys out, you still have these guys I see as being better than Lohse in a neutral setting (i.e. neither cost prospects): Jackson Francis Maholm Bedard (forgot him initially) When you factor in that you have to give up prospects for Lohse and you don't for a FA, the list expands a bit: Chen Duchsherer Marquis Maybe some teams will overrate Lohse, but I just don't see him being particularly appealing, especially early in the offseason when the Cards would need to dump his contract. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Lohse is appealing, but that list isn't all that enticing. 1 year of Lohse or multiple years of the above arms? If Maholm or Francis are better than Lohse, it's not by that much. You really can't depend on Duchscherer. He didn't pitch all of 2011, and even when he pitched, I don't think I'd take him over Lohse, to be honest. He's also only had one year as a starter. I'd put Marquis/Lohse about on par in terms of talent, and I think there would be many teams that would rather take a look at Lohse as a starter over someone like Chen for 2012. Of course, this assumes you aren't paying 12 mil for Lohse. But if you can get him at closer to 8 mil without giving up much in the way of talent ... I think that holds a different level of appeal compared to some of the guys on that list. I think Edwin Jackson is clearly a notch ahead for me, and I think someone rolls the dice on Bedard's talent before Lohse, but the rest of that list isn't that impressive, and if you have to commit more than one year, I could see some teams opting for someone like Lohse (or Westbrook) instead. But only time will tell. And heck, for all we know, DeWitt could bump payroll up and make this a moot point.

To explain myself better, I don't really question their need for a veteran starter, just their need for a splashy type signing. I admittedly don't know much about their payroll "cap" but unless they're willing to climb close to the upper tier of the Cubs and Phillies, locking into another long term contract with Wilson seems short sighted. If I were them I'd probably push hard for whichever of the mid-tier guys (Buerhle, Oswalt, Jackson) that I liked the most and thought was a realistic option to sign. A top of the order of Strasburg/Zimmermann/Oswalt is pretty solid and gives you payroll flexibility going forward. If you're in contention at the deadline, you have the prospects to target a SP in trade if you're concerned about Strasburg/Zimmermann or want more depth behind the trio. Maybe I'm misreading their situation, but that seems like the smarter path to take for the situation the Nats are in rather than making a splashy move that may be unnecessary. Indications have been that they are willing to push closer to 100 mil. It wouldn't take it to Cubs/Phillies levels, but it would be a significant boost. Their opening day payroll was around 68 mil. For 2012, they have around 44 mil committed as of now, according to Cots. They have Arb 1 raises for Clippard/Zimmerman (for some reason, I thought Clppard was Arb 2 ... they may use Clippard as a trade chip this offseason though), Arb 2 raises for Morse/Lannan, and Arb 3 raises on Gorzelanny/Slaten. Nothing really key, and the only FA of note that they reportedly have a key interest in bringing back is Wang. The one ugly deal, besides Werth, as of now is LaRoche's, but even that isn't that bad (9 million left) and they could use him at first. If they find a way to let Lannan/Gorzelanny's contract go, that would give them a ton of space to work with. There also aren't many key youngsters that they are likely to push for long term deals buying out arb years - Espinosa may be the main one as they want to see if Desmond can be more consistent. In short, they don't even have to go near 100 mil. They have a lot of money to play with and can probably sign a guy down without impacting their long term future. That explains why a lot of folks are expecting them to be aggressive in FA.

Well, you have two starters that have limited markets (Kuroda/Vazquez) unless they change their minds (both guys have indicated LA or Florida as their only options - Vazquez has gone as far to say that he likely would retire, I believe). Oswalt and Buehrle could also have limited markets, based on past rumors. Some teams don't have the money to go after Wilson/Darvish. Lohse is probably on par with the other guys, if not a notch below, but at one year, if you can get him at, say, 8 mil without giving up much in the way of talent, that might be more appealing than some of the other options. Don't know until ... well ... until the offseason starts, but as of now, doesn't seem that unreasonable to me. Wang may have a limited market as well in that, while his agent will push, there's a lot of expectations that off his strong showing late in the year plus the Nationals support of him, that any reasonable deal and he's back in Washington.

Well, 1. If you think the situations are similar once an injury occurs, then why would Pujols, in the off-season, leave, provided the money is similar, with the Cardinals coming off a World Series appearance and possible victory? Keep in mind the post I was responding to initially - Tim said he felt that Berkman's resigning meant they were giving up on Pujols. 2. The thing is, they don't have many on-paper needs, and 10-15 million to address one need and depth. That's more than enough, and that presumes DeWitt doesn't raise payroll. 3. Nvm, I read it as 2012's rotation for some reason, but re-reading, I see you were talking about 2011 Cubs. That said, I still don't see the comparison as that great in that, in Shelby, you have one of the top arms in the minors, a potential ace level starter, whereas the 2011 Cubs had the Casey Coleman's of the world as fall back. For a FA studying a team's system, what's more enticing? Again, I just don't see how signing Berkman means they are giving up on Pujols. They can sign him and still address their one main need entering the year in the middle infield. Also, the hits seem fairly reasonable - theriot/schumaker/mcclellan aren't exactly guys that people would get too worked up over in regards to a team's depth, leaving the only question as the rotation.

Perhaps, but the question is why? With Castro looking debatable as a long term shortstop, there's no need to move Lake to another position as of now, particularly if he is showing any sort of hope of sticking there.

At some point with the Nats I start to wonder if they're being aggressive just to be aggressive. As good as their system is, it seems like it'd be in their best interest to have a little patience and develop some of these kids. I think they spent just to spend last year in signing Werth and going after an elite starter like Wilson or Darvish seems to be a bit unnecessary with Strasburg and Zimmermann at the top of the rotation. The Lerners want to win now. When you add in that Milone has fringe stuff (but commands it well) and that Peacock's stuff as a starter is more debatable than many fans are rating him (fastball was VERY straight at times, changeup seemed fairly iffy), it actually makes quite a bit of sense for them to go after another starter. It'd be nice if they didn't - that would increase our chances of signing Wilson a fair amount. That said, with Strasburg coming back from TJ, and with Zimmerman shut down early this year because he reached his innings limit, it's quite possible they won't want to over-extend either guy significantly next year. Factor in Detwiler being raw as a starter, and Lannan being fringy (although I think they'll try to get rid of Lannan's deal), along with the need for starting depth, and I think it actually makes a ton of sense provided they have the money to spend. It's really not hard to see them as a breakthrough team next year that challenges for the playoffs. Werth will likely rebound offensively a bit, so if Morse maintains his performance (understandably debatable), that gives them an excellent middle of the order.

Once they pick up Molina's option, because let's face it, they're bringing back Molina, they'll be at 80 million for 8 players. If their payroll is going to be at that 115 mark, it becomes incredibly tight to sign Pujols and address any of their other potential issues(2B, SS, CF, SP). They can probably do it, but it would come with some pain. I still think it isn't that bad provided they can clear a starting pitcher's contract, Lohse or Westbrook, preferably Lohse for them. Descalso can take over at one middle infield job, and the return of Wainwright gives them an upgrade off the bat. They have enough guys to slot in to the 5th spot - Lance Lynn comes to mind, Shelby Miller could be ready by midseason. I don't think they will go into the offseason feeliing like they need to upgrade in CF - I think they'll give Jon Jay the job. Not saying I think Jay will be as solid offensively as he was this year, just that they will feel comfortable there. If they can clear a SP contract in Lohse or Westbrook, which seems likely, and non-tender Theriot, Schumaker, and McClellan, which is possible, that gives them two Arb 1 raises, which shouldn't be much, and roughly 10-15 million (depending on how much they clear ... and this presumes that DeWitt maintains roughly the SQ on payroll ... if he raises it a bit to fit Pujols, that changes things) to address one main need (shortstop) and add depth or the bullpen. It really doesn't sound like that bad a situation. Now, if they can't clear a SP contract, then it becomes tighter. That would leave them roughly only 5-10 mil to address one main positional need and depth. But then they would have a rotation of Carpenter/Wainwright/Garcia/Lohse/Westbrook - a bit unnecessary when they have arms ready to step in to challenge for the 5th spot. And I have a hard time thinking that they couldn't clear Lohse or Westbrook's 1 year left a bit in this bad pitching market.

Well ... I think they are looking for impact more than steadying influence. That's been Rizzo's mantra for the last couple of seasons - trying to land that impact starter. Furthermore, hard to know how much Oswalt has left. I have doubts Buehrle would head this far east, but that's just a hunch (and if my calculations on the Cardinals are correct, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up there on a hometown discount type of deal). The Nats are so deep, though, that one thing is, I wonder if they might get gun-shy about over-spending after the Werth deal. I doubt it, but they have the system depth to pry away almost any pitcher if they are willing to be aggressive. Then again, maybe they like Peacock/Milone enough to not get aggressive, or they might view AJ Cole as potentially a fast mover (one of the more impressive pitching performances I saw in the minors this year was by Cole ... granted, everyone acknowledged that his stuff was too good for Low A anyways, but considering his age, impressive nonetheless, and the season numbers were good). With the Phillies aging, and the Marlins/Mets a step back, the Nats may view the next few years as the best time to make a push. I'm still not all that sold that the Nats will shy away from Fielder/Pujols. They'd have free up some money (namely, move Adam LaRoche and a few other moves), but it sure feels like creative movement could make it happen. That said, they have sent out signals suggesting otherwise as of now.

Off the top, I don't believe the Nats have a really strong presence in Asia. I'd have to double check, but I really have high doubts that they'd be heavily in on Darvish. Wilson makes more sense for them than Darvish, IMO, because he offers more of a proven record, and as exciting as Strasburg/Zimmerman/Detwiler look, they still are three young guys who could go through some growing pains.

I still think the Nationals are the team I'd really watch in the CJ Wilson derby. They are willing to bid heavy, and they have a lot of money to spend. They have a good bullpen (even if Clippard gets moved, there's enough pieces to be solid ahead of Storen), and a good young positional core that is one top of the order bat away from being a lot better as a unit (I mean, Rick Ankiel was leading off for them quite a bit this past year). A rotation of Strasburg/Wilson/Zimmerman/Detwiler/Wang would, on paper, look really good, and they'd have Milone/Peacock in AAA, along with a deep system to make moves. Money to spend and a competitive situation ... I really think they'll be in it. I don't know if Boston can afford CJ Wilson right now. They are pretty tapped out in terms of money spent on the rotation. The return of Buchholz next year will be as big as anything for them. Blue Jays, on the other hand, could be a sleeper, although my hunch is they go hard after Darvish (I tend to think Theo and Co. may make a push on Darvish as awell). And if Baltimore throws piles of money at CJ, a lot more than other teams, it might be interesting to see if he'd pull the trigger on the Orioles. The Marlins may be in on this. For the teams that miss out on CJ, I think some of them will end up trying to trade for impending FA's after the 2012 season.

I doubt Kuroda will come cheap, and moreoever, he really prefers LA. The Yankees may make a push at him, so we'll see how much LA is a factor in regards to where he wants to pitch, but it's hard to imagine the Cubs really fitting into the Kuroda picture. Only time will tell. I still wouldn't mind a gamble on Chien-Ming Wang, but I expect he'll go back to the Nationals. I wouldn't mind taking a gamble on Chen, but I'd caution against expecting too much. He can peak mid-90's, but he sits more low 90's. It wouldn't surprise anyone if his velocity with the American ball is actually a tick below what he has in Japan. His secondary stuff is solid, but not exceptional. Feels more like an end of the rotation starter to me, but as with guys like Chen, I really hope they prove my initial hunch wrong. In some respects, the market for Wilson might be greater than say, Fielder. A lot of teams will be in on Wilson, whereas some teams either don't have the room for Fielder, or will shy away due to his physique. That said, I don't know, but feels like Wilson could simply come down to money. I'd really love to get Headley, but this was a guy that Hoyer labeled as a guy for the Padres to build around. Unless the Padres want to do us favors (and I guess they have already), it's hard to imagine them moving him unless it's a huge return, particularly when they don't have money issues for this upcoming season and because their deep 3rd base talent may end up at other spots (Darnell/Rincon) or may be more of a utility guy (Gyorko).

He and Vitters are the poster children of the poor approach to player development under Hendry. Overly aggressive promotions, no focus on controlling the zone, etc. Fortunately, I think they are both young enough to still make adjustments. Unfortunately, we may not have the new philosophy baked throughout the system in time to make that impact. The Lake development bugs me a bit more than Vitters in some respect. I can understand a level of pressure felt to push an early first round pick up. Not saying it's justified, but I can understand it (that said, it's easy to forget that they sent Vitters back to Boise that year due to concern on his wrist ... so with Vitters, more than anything, it's been odd decision-making, as if they were overly protective of him then, and then started pushing him off every hot streak he had). With Lake, well, that pressure isn't there, and you'd think letting a guy develop his skills more would make sense. I know some farm directors feel that a player that is absolutely crushing his league isn't in his best interest, but this was never really the case with Junior.

I think he can reach the bigs IF he simply does 2 things - a) Learns to not swing at the first pitch so often. b) Learns to read spin. Of course, this is easier said than done. On one hand, some have argued that, at this point in the system, it's hard to anticipate that he can significantly change his habits that much/improve his "read" skills that much. On the other hand, he is awfully young, at an age where many guys are still in the lower levels honing more basic skills. There's a lot that bugs me about Junior Lake, but then again, once in awhile, I defend him quite a bit (I remember my comparisons to Hak-ju Lee last year). I mean, watching him dive for pitches sometimes, you'd think he was a Rob Deer-ian wild hacker that struck out an exorbitant amount of the time. That said, he's K% is decent, not good, but 22% is livable if he corrects things.