toonsterwu

Eh, I would favor the top end potential of Montero and either Banuelos or Betances over any 1-2 punch the Blue Jays could offer. This is, of course, assuming that either team would be offering our choice of prospects/young talent. I guess I'm far from convinced that all those young guys are going to pan out to be better than Banuelos/Betances.

Well ... that's a tougher equation. I love this deal for the A's. Love it. Think it's a better haul than the Latos deal. That said, that's as much a value judgment. I love AJ Cole. Plus fastball, potential plus curve, developing change, strong performance. I know BA had Peacock over him, but I prefer Cole easily. For me, he's easily the prize of the trade. Of the three big pitching trades so far this offseason (Cahill, Latos, Gonzalez), I think you could argue that he's at least the 2nd best talent. There's some ironing out work, but he's not yet 20, throws strikes, and will be ready for A+ next year. I think his ceiling is a legitimate ace level arm. Peacock/Norris are the 2nd/3rd chips in some order. Norris is probably able to stick at catcher, but he won't be anything exceptional behind the dish. At the plate, won't make a ton of contact, but takes his walks and has good raw power. Peacock was the "breakout" guy. Plus fastball, but a bit flat. Good breaking ball. Needs to refine the change. Raw ability is very good. Possible 2 type starter if it all comes together, but I could see him struggle a bit if he can't refine the change. Could be a power pen arm. Milone has, um, an average fastball, plus change, good breaking balls, plus command. Think ... Travis Wood-ish (Wood has slightly better velo on the fastball, but Milone has a better breaking ball and better command/control).

Basically, Wood is Randy Wells if Wells were six years younger, earlier in his service time clock, left-handed, threw a little harder, struck out more batters and didn't have a horrible 2011 on his resume. Sure, I said pretty much the same thing earlier in the thread (albeit not with FIP- and just making a casual mention of Wood essentially replacing Wells role in the rotation).

Considering the return in the Latos/Gonzalez deals (and to a lesser extent, Cahill, since he netted arguably the best talent in any of the three deals in Jarrod Parker), I think the bar is awfully high for a prospect-oriented deal. Teams are netting upside and upper level talents. Much as I entered the off-season hesitant to trade Garza, if we get a trade similar to one of those first two deals (Latos/Gio), I think you have to pull the trigger and hope for the best.

I'm just not all that enthused with a Red Sox package, although it feels like they could be the most aggressive of the three AL East teams in searching for pitching. There just isn't enough pitching to get back, and they gave some indications that Bogaerts was off-limits in a Gio Gonzalez deal, so hard to buy that he'd be available to us in a Garza deal (there was an Edes article about it)

I think they may end up relegated. ha ... PCL or IL? or ... Mexico or Japan?

WSR - I'm not sure about that. If they can solidify the top of the order, wouldn't surprise me if they won the East, but I think they could finish 2nd. It's very, very close btw those top 3 teams. Wow, fricking wow. I understand some A's fans are disappointed, because they wanted positional assets, but this is a heck of a deal for a pitcher witha glaring concern (walks). I love Cole. I like him better than Jarrod Parker personally (although it's close). I like this return more than the one the Padres got for Latos (which was good). But they get two ready arms (and much as I'm not as big on Peacock as others, I respect why some folks are high on him) and a quality positional asset. Fricking wow, can't believe they got all three arms and Norris.

Well, if that's what you read and that's how he seems, I'm not sure how I'm supposed to argue with that. His peripherals say he's an above-average major league pitcher. He's 24. He's healthy. That's really all I need to know. Well, the one note I would make is that the use of FIP- here assumes that he's able to a pitcher somewhere in b/w his 2010 and 2011 performances. If 2011 is closer to a sign of things to come, then he's in Randy Wells category in terms of total FIP-. To be fair to Wells, he had two years (compared to 1 right now for Wood) of being an above average, relative to FIP-, starter, before bottoming out last year to drag down his overall numbers. Unlike Wood, Wells injuries last year is likely a big factor as to why things bottomed out. That said, whether or not Wells can consistently be the guy he was in 2009/2010 is a fair question. Now, in Wood's defense, I've probably been a bit harsh in criticizing him. Yes, his ceiling is probably a bit higher than a 4/5 starter. If we're using numbers, his ceiling is probably a 3 starter. This presumes that his change stays consistently plus and he sharpens up his command a bit from last year.

Well, b/w Miles/Counsell, sure I can understand that. I'd rather try and get Tim Beckham than go for Brignac, though. But with Barney as the backup at short, I just don't see a point to adding Brignac here. It's money that can be diverted elsewhere. As for Daric Barton, meh. Never had much pop as a minor leaguer to begin with, and just don't see the need to go down that road.

Here's my thing on the off-season so far - a) This feels like the rebuild job that the media was selling, and I was okay with this route. b) At the end of the day, even if DeJesus/Stewart/Marshall trade falters, it doesn't mean that the moves were bad. DeJesus was fine. I personally want another top of the order option at 2nd (still would love to see another top of the order type option at 2nd, giving us more overall flexibility on where to utilize Starlin and have him develop). It's not a long term deal, so it doesn't tie us down, and it provides veteran leadership and a guy who, by most accounts, wanted to be here. Stewart was a fine gamble. We gave up LeMahieu and Colvin, two guys that had debatable pro potential. This was a position of need, the market was weak, the system wasn't ready to fill in the spot. Headley was costly. To be honest, the Stewart price was lower than I expected. And then the Marshall trade. The prospects will matter a lot, but even then, dealing a reliever with 1 year left for more team-controlled guys is valuable if the intent is a rebuild job.

I think the Marshall ship has sailed, barring something with the medicals coming up (and if it's with the prospects, my guess is that both sides would just work hard to rework the trade). OOC, why do you want Brignac? Don't see much value in bringing him here. Sure, he's solid defensively, but Barney can play short.

Ha. As a side note, if this is true, then the Flaherty decision is even more baffling. It was obvious that they were going to have to fill the upper levels and the 40 man with some backup/stopgap positional guys, and Flaherty offered a versatile guy, even if one didn't buy his ability to play any defensive position well (still think he could've settled in at 3rd base to be solid). Oh well, the Flaherty ship has sailed and I think there's next to zero chance we get him back (as Baltimore can fit him in, as there are holes at 3rd/LF, along with questions at 2nd, and he could also DH). I don't know what I'd do if we signed Aaron Miles. Seems like name speculation on Nicholson-Smith's part.

Would I take Davis over Wood? Tough call. I don't think much of Wood's ceiling, despite the Reds poster that went to the thread and claimed he'd be our 2nd best SP (not impossible, but that would speak to a bad, bad season, and not to his talent level). That said, gut instinct is that I think Davis might end up in the pen as a set-up/closer type eventually. If I had both guys, I'd value Davis over Wood. But in this case, a lot would depend on what I'd have to give up for Davis, though. I'd love to see if a pitching coach (in this case, Bosio) could get him to do what Garza did - significantly lessen his reliance on his fastball. Even a mediocre change is useful if used well-enough as a threat, and his breaking balls are solid (don't think he has Garza's ceiling in re: to what Garza did this year, just speaking in general, but they are somewhat similar). Anyhow, that's just armchair commentary on my part.

I'm the wrong person to offer a response, as I'm noticeably not as excited as some on Rizzo (still think early 30's on the community list on Sickels was too high), but for me, I'd rather keep Marisnick and get a vet first baseman to cover for a year or two. My "ideal" Garza trade is impossible at the moment, and that would be the Nats and getting Rendon to go with Cole. Heck those two alone, and I'd be fine. That said, Rendon can't be dealt until later, and I doubt, with his medical history, that they'd want him in another organization all year long as a PTBNL. Toronto certainly looks good as a target team, but the Yankees would still be my favorites. Red Sox are looking for pitching, but they don't have anything in the system that really excites me to make a deal (I'm not nearly as bullish on Boegaerts and Barnes as some, and the other top guys don't have huge ceilings or are inconsistent (Ranaudo comes to mind).) Tigers would be a nice sleeper, but I doubt they move Turner or Porcello, and I'm not sure their other top prospect arms are centerpiece guys as the 2nd piece (next to Castellanos). I'm assuming Rangers are out. On the NL side, are the Marlins still looking for pitching? Havent' followed all that closely, but even then, not sure they have the one-two punch I'd want, unless Morrison is shopped, which I doubt. Even then, I don't love Yelich a ton and Volstad is going to get expensive soon. Can't think of any other team really looking hard at a frontline starter, outside of the rumors on the Padres. Danks being off the market should help our chances to move Garza, if the Cubs want to. That said, best bet is still to get an AL East bidding war b/w the Blue Jays and the Yankees. Oh, actually, my ideal Garza trade might be the Mariners, but I doubt they get involved. But loads of high ceiling pitching, plus intriguing positional assets is enticing.

I have doubts that someone like Lake would intrigue the Padres enough. I'm also not sold that Wood is a valuable enough asset to flip as a key piece to a deal like this. As much as I've said that I felt the Padres system is getting over-hyped, I also think they have enough Wood-level guys that trading for him doesn't make a ton of sense. That said, who knows. I tend to think the Cubs have more than 2 chips remaining. Soto could probably still net a solid return, even coming off his 2011 campaign. And ... how much value does Byrd have? I know someone said Harrison the other day, and I'd take that in a heartbeat, but I'm not sold Byrd has that much value. Only time will tell. As a total side note, much as I don't like Wade Davis, Wade Davis and prospects for Rizzo seems ... a bit much (obviously depending on who the prospects are). I think Wade Davis fits your other model for a mid-rotation starter - the guy who looks very good, but is inconsistent. He had a decent run ending the season, but even that run exposed his issues as much as anything (lessening the number of changeups he threw). He has the plus velo and 2 solid breaking balls, but he's a bit inconsistent on the breaking balls, lacks a good changeup, and doesn't have the elite control to compensate (and I want to say his fastball seems a bit flat, but I've never really looked at his pitch f/x data). He also doesn't have the elite control to compensate. All that said, he's just entering his prime and is still team-controlled. In some ways, his profile is actually somewhat similar to what Matt Garza's was last year (Garza was heavily dependent upon his fastball with the Rays; I still think the work Riggins did with him, or the work someone did with him to get him to change his entire approach has been under-appreciated). Davis for Rizzo seems fair to me, as small market teams need to find ways to add guys with power potential. I guess filler pieces wouldn't matter on either side. That may be more due to how I feel about Rizzo, though. I see the potential of Rizzo, and as noted, I wouldn't mind adding him in the right deal. That said, I also think there's a good chance he could be more Adam LaRoche, a decent first baseman, but nothing to get too excited over (to be honest, if the Cubs pass on Fielder, whatever their decision is) putting in a call to Washington on LaRoche wouldn't be the worst idea out there, as I think Washington might be willing to move LaRoche on the cheap to clear some space (still wouldn't surprise me if they ended up with Fielder).

Brett for Rizzo? I hope they pass on that. I'm not even completely sold that Rizzo's "in-game" power (can't think of what I want to say, but not his raw power, what he can actually produce) will be better than Jackson's. Even if it is slightly better, and even if Rizzo is a slightly better contact hitter (and that's debatable with a fairly long swing and a K rate that is above 20%), I'm just not sold his offensive package, on paper (which is all we really have to judge by right now, as I won't hold his 153 pro AB's against Rizzo that much), is better than Brett to compensate for Brett's defensive advantage. It's just not a good value move, IMO, particularly for an organization that will have a hole in CF sooner than later and with Szczur looking, on paper, a good 2 years away. I'll be honest, as much as I've railed against an 8 year deal for Fielder, I'd much rather give Fielder that 8 year deal and have Brett in my back pocket, than the other way around. I like Rizzo enough that adding him would be nice. I don't like Rizzo enough to trade away Brett for him, even if most people rank Rizzo as a slightly better prospect than Brett.

I'd take Corcino and a heartbeat, but he's arguably their best arm. Looking at it from their perspective, hard for me to see them giving up a borderline ready arm in Webb and their top prospect arm. I'd love it, though. As a total side note, while it's not like we need more lefty pen options in the upper levels, I wouldn't mind someone like Donnie Joseph as the third piece. Or someone like a David Vidal as a 3rd piece, someone who could perhaps slide in at 3rd base in Daytona to start 2012.

Coddington/Webb would be ... disappointing. Two guys that are system fillers, if they make it past spring, barring a surprising development in their abilities. Here's hoping for better.

I'm not that convinced that Wood can ramp up his fastball out of the pen in the same way that Marshall eventually did. If he can't, then it's debatable if Wood in the pen is better than Maine, Russell, Beliveau. Short of it is, Wood's value is as a starter. As a pen arm, he's possibly nice, but nothing that you should trade for. Expecting him to become Marshall out of the pen is a bit debatable, IMO, due to how Marshall ramped up his fastball eventually.

Well ... some decent positional assets. The system was over-hyped at the beginning of the off-season, IMO, anyways. They were dead thin on pitching (I mean, Corcino is arguably the top arm). Mesoraco is an untouchable and the starting C in 2012 for them, barring a surprise. AFter that, there's some MI's (Cozart, although he could be a major leaguer for them, and Hamilton/Gregorius lower). Nefatli Soto has good raw power, but I've never been a fan of his swing (well, never been big on his approach, or his ability to read pitches either). Yorman Rodriguez is toolsy, but really raw. Todd Frazier is basically a Ryan Flaherty type, someone the Cubs let walk. Dave Sappelt is ... not that interesting from a trade perspective (could become a depth OF type). Couple raw arms with upside in the lower levels, akin to what the Cubs have. I feel like I'm missing a couple guys. There's ... uh ... Lotzkar, but I'm taking a wait and see on how he does as he moves up, as he was an older guy coming off injury in the lower levels. A couple midde infielders, but I can't think of their names right now. All in all, a fairly weak system now.

While I've sort of bashed Wood, he has a lot of value. 5 cost-controlled years of a guy who looks capable of being a 5th starter, if not a 4th, is quite valuable. He's also ready to step in soon, perhaps freeing them up to move Randy Wells for some more savings. Perhaps whatever savings they make get re-invested elsewhere. It seems that the general feeling that the media is putting out is that the Cubs FO were quite frustrated by the new rules, and they may view selling off some valuable pieces, but replaceable assets, as a way to restock the system. I mean, I don't think our pen is going to be that hurt, provided it's managed well. Everything depends on Marmol being solid, but Wood, perhaps Cashner, perhaps Carpenter, should offer enough power setup arm potential, and there's enough lefties to match up. My issue with Wood is that, I'd rather trade for higher upside, even if it's riskier, but Wood does have quality value to a team.

any detail on secondary pieces? That's going to make or break the trade for me.

To be honest, gut guess and I'd say I'm not sure Hamilton becomes anything more than a fringe starter, but he has the potential to be a lot more, and it's a worthy gamble (and heck of a good trade) if you get Wood and Hamilton in a package. Heck, I wouldn't even need a third prospect.

I'd take Harrison for Byrd in a heartbeat. I'd be mighty surprised if Jon Daniels and Co. agreed to that.

If It's Hamilton, you make the trade in a heartbeat just to have a chance at that upside. I'm not a huge fan of Hamilton, but that would definitely make this trade a good one because the upside is so tantalizing.