K-Town

What's the context of Selig's remarks? What, specifically, is he denying?

More than likely, they will never stop believing in luck Ahhhh, the anonymous 'they'. Who exactly are 'they'? I would assume he means the ones who currently believe in luck. Point being (just like always), nobody's opinion will be swayed on a message board (believe me, I try harder than anybody! :lol: )

UK - You're back to pitch counts again, with a disregard for actually seeing him throw. He was clearly cruising in those games. You would have taken him out of 2 games in June, when the race hadn't been decided yet, even though he'd thrown under 100 pitches? What if you ended up needing him to throw 120 pitches in an important game in September, but he was only conditioned (at that point, using your theory) to throw 90 or 95? As it stands, Carpenter is averaging fewer than 100 pitches per game for the season. To me, that's not even close to being out of line. If you think that Larussa is out of line with Carpenter, you should look back in June at what Cox was doing to Smoltz, or what happened in Tim Hudson's last start. Cox has been pretty successful too. I don't know. I guess a case can be made, but it's a weak on, in my opinion.

I don't even know what that means. How do you put a face value on a pitcher or a manager?

Carpenter's last start was a 5-2 win (not exactly a "blowout"), in which Carpenter threw 109 pitches, in which Carpenter retired the last 9 batters he faced. It was against the Cubs. You probably saw it, so I assume you could make a pretty good judgment about whether Larussa was careless. Before that, Carpenter threw 8 innings in a game that wasn't decided until the 9th inning, when the Cards rallied. Carpenter retired the last 20 batters he faced. I don't think he was working very hard. This was an important game against the Braves, so I don't fault Larussa for leaving his ace in there. Before that was a 3-1 win against Florida. Again, it's not exactly like Carpenter was left in a "blowout". Carpenter allowed 2 baserunners after the 3rd inning. Again, not exactly a "struggle" for him. Before that was an 11-3 game, where Carpenter was pulled after 7 innings. Before that was a 2-1 win against the Cubs, that the Cards won in the 11th inning. Carpenter went 9 (109 pitches), and retired 9 of the last 10 hitters he faced. Go back further than that, and you're in early July. Carpenter was throwin 112-114 pitches. Should Larussa have been more careful in early July? Is 114 pitches too many for a pitcher who is "cruising"? I don't know.

I said based on when the game has already been decided, he has left Carpenter out there too long several times. You go thru his game log and he was out there beyond the point he needed to be out there, he'll likely have a higher level of fatigue around 95 pitches, not to the point where's adjusted his mechanics or overthrowing, but he's left him out there too long. If you respond, "he's trying to save his pen", it'll be just as easy to check the game log and find pitchers who did not pitch the night before. To me, that would be the safer route to go during the course of the season as the wear and tear is accumulative. Maybe. You can make the case that he could have been more "careful", and probably make a good one. But I don't think there's a precedence for a manager "coddling" his pitchers in July. Maybe there is. Larussa's style is for each and every player to keep the pedal to the metal to keep from getting complacent. It's seemed to work well (with the exception of 4 World Series games last year). Larussa certainly isn't perfect, but based on what I've seen, I trust him.

You said that Larussa had been "careless" with Carpenter. I guess I'm not sure what you meant by that. I'm not talking about September. Some folks are saying that it's too late, the damage is already done, and Larussa should have taken better care of Carpenter. Up to this point, I just don't see how he should have handled things differently.

No. Lee at least was a good player before this season, albeit not a great one. Nunez was a terrible player and has been above-average this year. Nunez has seen a 185-point boost in OPS. Lee? 240. OK, so considering that Lee was actually a bit of a disappointment last season (114 OPS+ versus 131 and 135 the previous two seasons), it's about even. Either way, you're talking about one of two or three Cubs who have exceeded expectations... not exactly a club full of overachievers. Nor are the Cards a club-full of overachievers. Grudz has been pretty average. So has Eck. Pujols is having a typical year. Rolen hasn't helped the team at all. Sanders, Walker, Molina..... all disappointing seasons because of injury, and pretty average years when they were playing. Mulder has disappointed. Marquis hasn't been very good. Morris is just an average pitcher these days. Carpenter is having a career year along the lines of Derrek Lee. Suppan is steady, but certainly not spectacular. Reyes has been exceptional, I'll give you that. Nunez? He has a 1.006 OPS when batting 2nd in the lineup. You think maybe he's seeing some pretty good pitches, with Pujols standing in the on-deck circle? :lol: When batting anywhere else in the lineup, he's pretty much hovered at or below his career numbers. So there's your explanation. Did you guys expect Murton to put up an .880 OPS after never seeing a game above the AA level?

No, it means he is efficent with his pitches throwing deep into a ballgame that doesn't equate to him not being abused. The only way you can tell if a pitcher is or isn't being abused is thru sight. I haven't watched all of his starts, so I can't you tell if he's been left put there while fatigued, the low pitch counts decrease the odds but guarantee nothing. You can tell if a manager/PC is being careless by leaving a pitcher in there despite the score. Baker was terrible with this w/Zambrano last year and it appears LaRussa has been with Carpenter at times. Which games have you seen Carpenter be "abused" in? Because as you bolded above, the only way to tell if a pitcher is being abused is through sight. Marquis is being abused in every sense of the word, but I don't really care, because he sucks anyway. Based on pitch counts, based on personally seeing Carpenter pitch almost every game this year, based on Pitcher Abuse Points, and based on Carpenter's dominance in innings 7 thru 9, I think it's fair to say that Carpenter isn't being abused. We're in August, people. There's a month and a half to play. I honestly believe that Carpenter will be coddled in September. But as pointed out earlier, the Cards don't believe in "taking the foot off of the gas pedal" just because you're ahead in the race. I think you lose your edge when you do that. Like I said, it's looked to me like Morris and Marquis have been more abused than Carpenter. So do you put them on a short leash, too? Pretty soon you've got your entire starting rotation only going 6 inning, and I'll be here trying to defend Larussa when his bullpen is shot. It's a no-win situation. The Cards' coaching staff has had (for the most part) an injury-free pitching staff for almost 2 years in a row, and have had the most effective pitching staff for 2 years in a row. Yet some still think they're being mis-used. I think I'll go with Larussa/Duncan on this one, but thanks for the advice. :wink:

Clemens sure is turning it on when his team really needs him, isn't he? He pulled himself out of his last start because of his back. He doesn't last 7 innings this time, and gives up 5 runs, and a lead this time, as his team lost it's 5th game out of its last 6 while dropping out of the Wild Card lead. Clemens is no longer chasing history, so we can put that argument to rest. If Carpenter is lights-out tonight, we may have a race on our hands. We shall see.

I almost fell out of my chair... a Cardinal fan admitting some good fortune? :lol: I think it's a kind of misunderstanding. I think some people hear the word "luck" and they immediately think you are comparing the overachieving performances with Walt Jocketty walking down the street and randomly finding a $20 bill on the ground. I think what you mean is that the overachievers are exceeding even the organization's expectations. It's not unfounded blind luck, but it is luck in the sense that even Walt and Co. had no idea they would be this good. The talent may have been there (Al Reyes and Carp have always had good stuff and Nunez has talent) but there was no reason to believe these guys would ever realize their ability. I totally agree. But there's been bad luck too. And there's been good and bad luck for every team in baseball. It's not something that's exclusive to the Cardinals, which is what's been implied. You don't win the division by 15 games for 2 years in a row, and make the playoffs almost every year because you're "luckier" than every other team. If the Cards are so "lucky", then why no World Series title? :cry:

There are Cardinal fans that do not question Tony's every move. I have yet to meet one. Most of Cardinal Nation has a dislike for his management style. I used to hate the way he managed, but it is hard to argue with the results he is getting out of his team. Moreover, the man will be a future HOF manager and is very competitive and prepared. Maybe just maybe, this guy knows what he is doing, and the rest of us are only writing about it on the computer. And maybe to shed some light on the Carp's innings/pitch count discussion, I will quote TLR himself. He stated during the Cubs series that "there is a very fine line between winning and losing." He went on to talk about how his team cannot afford to try to coast the rest of the season. Therefore, it is his philosophy that the team continues to push forward. The best analogy I can think of is a coach that I used to play for. He was known for his deadly full court press and would utilize it when the team is winning by a landslide. He was severly criticized for doing so. Yet, his philosophy was much like TLR's. In fact, he told a newspaper reporter that be unfair for his subs not to get to utilize what they learned in practice in the game situations. Moreover, he reasoned that if an injuried occurred that the other players would be more prepared. He was the best coach that I have ever played for because he would stick to his philosophy. What kind of message does it send to pull out Carp when he is rolling along in a game. We are going to play as hard as we can to win but as soon as Carp rolls thru 6 or 7 innings with only 70 pitches I am going to pull him. The fine line comes in when Carp might those that mental edge of closing games out. I don't have all the answers, but I do know that Tony wants to win just as bad as I do. And he has far more experience than all of us combined. You get it. Many folks here don't (or just don't want to, or are just being difficult). :wink:

I suggest Tony start pulling Carp after 6 innings from here on out, unless the game is in doubt, and regardless of how Chris feels about it. I would rest him for at least two starts in Sept, as you say will be done. I would also do this for Morris, who looks like crap lately. With as big a lead as you have, both in the division and for home field, and with the Astros leveling off, I can't think of one good reason to keep going full bore, even in August. Why 6 innings? Are innings more important than pitch counts? Why so literal? I agree with what xzero's saying, we need to back off the pedal with Carp. If it's a blow out game, take Carp out. Even if it's not, I also agree we have nothing to gain and everything to lose. He's not a show pony, he's a key component to a deep playoff run. You get it. K-Town either doesn't or doesn't want to (or is just being difficult). This is just common sense. Don't get WHAT? Is there a history of great pitchers breaking down after 170 innings? I'm not sure what you're basing the assumption on that Carpenter will "break down". I've already TOLD you that the September call-ups will likely provide some relief for ALL of the starters. You guys act like Carpenter is throwing 130 pitches and not being pulled from a game until he's spent. He's averaging around 100 pitches per game. That's not bad at all. And I can't remember him looking "spent" late in a game. He looks stronger at the end than at the beginning. Should Pujols be shut down also, so that he doesn't hurt himself? What about Morris? Marquis? Mulder? Suppan? They've all pitched alot of innings. Do you suggest pulling them ALL after 6 innings, and making darn sure that the bullpen is whupped before the playoffs start?

Nunez is far less of an overachiever than Derrek Lee this year, don't you think? So why are the Cards luckier than the Cubs? If it happens for a year, then it's lucky. When it continues, then I have to assume that Duncan spotted something that nobody else had, and made some necessary adjustments. The Cards obviously saw something that they liked alot. The invested in him a full year before he was ready to start pitching again. If he had been special for a year, I'd call it "luck". 2 years in a row? There seems to be a pattern. Duncan obviously didn't see what he wanted to see in Haren, and did see what he wanted to in Mulder. I can't speak for Duncan. Haren wasn't "proven", and Mulder was. The Cards' main priority over the off-season was to acquire a proven shut-down pitcher to complement Carpenter in the playoffs. I'm not convinced yet that Mulder is that guy, but I'm also not convinced that Haren will ever be that guy.

Clemens should probably win, if the award is given out today. But Carpenter sure has been a bulldog, and is putting up some amazing numbers.

Yeah, I have to give the guy credit. He goes behind enemy lines and sticks to his guns. If one of us tried that at Cards Talk, we wouldn't last. Then again, it's an entirely different atmosphere over there. A lot of hatred toward our kind... It depends which board you go to. The only reason I'm on this particular Cubs board is because you guys are unusually reasonable. By the way, I'm not so much "persistent" as "bored". :lol:

And 4 of those losses the Astros scored 0 runs. What exactly did you want out of Clemens? A 10 inning (or more) shutout so that the Stros could finally score a run? Nope. Clemens did all he could. But if your team loses, how much value did you provide your team that day? There's no value in losing. Again, not Clemens' fault, but his team could have gotten the exact same ultimate results if you or I had been pitching that day, so what good did he do them? The Cy Young award is for the best pitcher, not the best pitcher in the context of his team. This isn't the MVP. Who has dominated the opposition with the most consistency? That is your award winner. You can make an argument for how valuable a player is to his team for the MVP, but nowhere in the description f the Cy Young does it say anything about value, just performance. And Roger has performed better than Carpenter. Hypothetically, a great pitcher can make 35 starts for a team with no offense, and go something like 10-15 with a 1.00 ERA and .70 WHIP. Another pitcher can go 25-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP for a team that scores him a load of runs. Do you punish the better pitcher because his team can't score? No, you give him the award because he was better. You would think so, but that's not at all what happened last year. It seems to me that the voters are willing to use whatever logic is convenient for Clemens.

This is almost laughable to me. The Cards haven't had a starting pitcher miss a start all year. Last year, they had a grand total of 8 starts missed. Furthermore, the Cards have the best pitching staff in baseball this year. They had the best pitching staff in baseball last year. The starter waiting for a chance to pitch (Reyes) maybe better than anybody currently on the staff. Yet Larussa is somehow abusing his pitching staff. Unbelievable. Maybe, just MAYBE he's using them exactly the way they should be used!

I suggest Tony start pulling Carp after 6 innings from here on out, unless the game is in doubt, and regardless of how Chris feels about it. I would rest him for at least two starts in Sept, as you say will be done. I would also do this for Morris, who looks like crap lately. With as big a lead as you have, both in the division and for home field, and with the Astros leveling off, I can't think of one good reason to keep going full bore, even in August. Why 6 innings? Are innings more important than pitch counts?

So what do you suggest? You think the Cards should shut down a perfectly healthy pitcher for the rest of the season? The Cards are making a point to give ALL of their starters an extra day off here and there (as I've already explained). After September call-ups, they'll probably get even MORE rest. As for the Kerry Wood comparison, I think that most experts agree that his mechanics are horrible, and that's why he's hurt all the time. To my knowledge, Carpenter's mechanics are very good, so I'm not sure that I'd be overly worried. the time for suggestion has long since passed, and that's the point. LaRussa blew the chance to save his arm for the stretch run. I don't see how the starters have gotten extra days rest when only one start has been made from someone not on the five man. don't forget too that they went with a four man for the first couple weeks of the season. I personally don't think going to a six man rotation is the greatest idea ever either. as for the Kerry Wood comparison, assuming what you say is true, shouldn't you be concerned that someone with "very good" mechanics seems to get injured all the time, especially since those are arm injuries and not fluke injuries (ala Prior). Player A - bad mechanics, injury history, injury cause can be corrected; Player B - very good mechanics, injury history, what can be done to predict and prevent injuries? He doesn't get injured "all the time". He missed part of 2002 and all of 2003 because of surgery. Other than that, he's pitched over 150 innings every full year of his career. He had a fluky nerve problem last September, but it had nothing to do with his workload. He's no more of an injury risk than anybody else. Furthermore, how do you come up with "8+ years"? He was brought up in '97 (for 1/2 year) '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 That's 7 years. He went down midway through '02, and missed all of '03. Other than that, he's pitched 150 innings or more every single year. Wood has pitched 150 innings only 4 times in his career.

This thread is a joke, so I'm not going to mess with it. However, I did want to point out that this statement is completely untrue. Pitchers do NOT come back stronger. Sometimes they come back throwing harder than they did immediately before their surgery, but this is due to the fact that these injuries don't happen overnight. They get worse and worse over time, and by the time they actually have to have the surgery, they're down from where they once were already. Isn't just another way of saying what I said? Not really. He was saying that a pitcher comes back stronger than he was immediately before his injury, but not as good or better than their previous top form. If a pitcher is worn down by injury at the end of a season, has surgery, and comes back stronger, does that mean he is the strongest he has ever been? No, the injury has permenantly decreased his ability. Since Carpenter has always been fragile, saying he is stonger than immediately before his injury says very little. The original point was that you don't worry about surgery repurcussions 3 years after the surgery. Do you?

So what do you suggest? You think the Cards should shut down a perfectly healthy pitcher for the rest of the season? The Cards are making a point to give ALL of their starters an extra day off here and there (as I've already explained). After September call-ups, they'll probably get even MORE rest. As for the Kerry Wood comparison, I think that most experts agree that his mechanics are horrible, and that's why he's hurt all the time. To my knowledge, Carpenter's mechanics are very good, so I'm not sure that I'd be overly worried. Furthermore, how do you come up with "8+ years"? He was brought up in '97 (for 1/2 year) '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 That's 7 years. He went down midway through '02, and missed all of '03. Other than that, he's pitched 150 innings or more every single year. Wood has pitched 150 innings only 4 times in his career.

This thread is a joke, so I'm not going to mess with it. However, I did want to point out that this statement is completely untrue. Pitchers do NOT come back stronger. Sometimes they come back throwing harder than they did immediately before their surgery, but this is due to the fact that these injuries don't happen overnight. They get worse and worse over time, and by the time they actually have to have the surgery, they're down from where they once were already. Isn't just another way of saying what I said?

I checked out Mike Lincoln's numbers last year, and they really weren't anything to get excited about. He was OK with the Pirates, but really, any disappointment about his injury has been more than made up for with Al Reyes' extremely unexpected performance. I don't think anyone is saying that the Cardinals have been lucky in terms of injuries this year. The lucky part is that guys like Abraham Nunez, Chris Carpenter, and Julian Tavarez (among other) have been much better than anybody could have expected when they signed with the Cards. Anyone who thought Nunez could be this good in 2005 is either an optimistic family member or completely insane. Then call Jim Leyland insane, because as a scout for the Cardinals who had seen alot of Pirate games, he BEGGED them to sign Nunez. Reyes had some VERY good years in the minor leagues (3.59 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP spready out over 15 years), but was never given a chance with a Major League club. Could it be that a little big-league coaching has pushed him over the top? Chris Carpenter has had a TON of potential since the day he was drafted in the first round back in '94. The Cards didn't just get lucky with him. They made an investment (when nobody else was willing to) in a kid with a ton of potential, who was just coming off of surgery, and it's paying off for them now. It's not like they threw money at a journeyman, and he turned into gold. Duncan is a miracle-worker at times, I won't deny that. But I think it's a little unfair to call it all dumb luck.

And 4 of those losses the Astros scored 0 runs. What exactly did you want out of Clemens? A 10 inning (or more) shutout so that the Stros could finally score a run? Nope. Clemens did all he could. But if your team loses, how much value did you provide your team that day? There's no value in losing. Again, not Clemens' fault, but his team could have gotten the exact same ultimate results if you or I had been pitching that day, so what good did he do them?